Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 17. august 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus I dag er fokus på nøgletal i USA. Vi får NAHB s aktivitetsindeks for august. Indekset fastholdt i juli det flotte niveau fra juni på 60, hvilket indikerer den største fremgang i aktiviteten side Det er blevet antydet at især en bedret indkomstsituation blandt husholdningerne har fået især førstegangskøbere på banen til at understøtte aktiviteten. Ind til videre har den højere realkreditrente ikke afskrækket køberne, men højere rente slår da også igennem med en vis forsinkelse på aktiviteten (se figur), og vi vil ikke afskrive at den vil dæmpes i den kommende tid, og vi ser derfor også en risiko for skuffelse i forhold til konsensusforventningen om en ny stigning i NAHB-indekset til 61. I dag får vi desuden New York Fed s bud på det regionale fremstillingsindeks (Empire). Sammen med det tilsvarende regionale indeks fra Philadelphia (kommer torsdag), pegede indekset på en moderation i det nationale ISM-indeks i juli, hvilket også viste sig at blive tilfældet, men ikke var ventet af konsensus. Der ventes mindre stigninger i både Empire- og Philly Fed indekset i august. Ellers er det en uge hvor fokus givet fortsat vil være på Grækenlands hjælpepakke (herunder tysk afstemning onsdag) og parlamentariske situation samt Kinas valutakurs og PBoC s styring af denne. Blandt de økonomiske nøgletal får vi fra USA forbrugerprisinflation, en række boligstatistikker samt fremstillingsbarometre og Fed offentliggør referat af sidste rentemøde. Fra euroområdet får vi forbrugertillid. Herhjemme står ugen på detailsalg og forbrugertillid. USA: Højere renter tager top af boligaktivitet Kilde: Macrobond, Handelsbanken Capital Markets Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Europa med minus på børserne, mens USA s trak opad. Renterne steg og USD blev styrket. Til morgen følger Asien USA forsigtigt opad. USA: Industriproduktionen steg i juli mere end ventet med hele 0,6% m/m efter nedreviderede 0,1% m/m i juni. Derudover steg fremstillingsproduktionen med pæne 0,8% m/m, hvilket dog skete efter et større fald end først opgjort i juni på -0,3% m/m. Det var den største stigning i otte måneder indikerende at produktionen er på vej tilbage på sporet efter et meget svagt 1. halvår. Dog var det især bilproduktionen der trak op, hvilket kan skyldes mindre sommeromstilling i produktionen end normalt. Forbrugertilliden fra University of Michigan faldt uventet en smule tilbage i august til 92,9 fra forrige 93,1. Niveauet er dog stadig højt og vi forventer at det seneste fald i benzinpriserne sammen med et robust bolig- og arbejdsmarked vil understøtte tilliden i de kommende måneder. Producentpriserne steg i juli lidt mere end ventet, og dermed var faldet i årsvækstraten til -0,8% y/y (fra forrige -0,7%) ligeledes mindre end ventet. Den lavere inflationsrate skyldtes ikke uventet især lavere energipriser. Kina: Spotkursen i CNY vs. USD udviklede sig stabilt til morgen, mens Offshorre CNY blev styrket en smule med 0,2%. Med til at stabilisere udvikling kunne være kommentar fra PBoC s cheføkonom, om at CNY vil bevæge sig begge retning eftersom økonomien stabiliseres og centralbanken banken kan intervenere i begge retninger. Japan: BNP-væksten faldt i 2. kvartal lidt mindre end ventet med 0,4% q/q, primært drevet af svagere privatforbrug samt nettoeksport. Til gengæld bidrog offentligt forbrug og investeringer mere positivt, samtidigt med at 1. kvartals BNP-vækst blev opjusteret til 1,1% q/q. Euroområdet: BNP voksede med 0,3% q/q i 2. kvartal, mod en vækst på 0,4% q/q i både 4. kvartal sidste år og 1. kvartal i år. Det er på den skuffende side, og det økonomiske opsving må fortsat betegnes som moderat og skrøbeligt. Så man på udviklingen i de enkelte eurolande, så var der en fornyet divergens mellem Tyskland og Frankrig. Tysk økonomi viste således fortsat relativt fornuftige takter med en BNP-vækst på 0,4% q/q. Fransk økonomi stagnerede derimod for første gang i et år, med specielt en bekymrende opbremsning i væksten i privatforbruget samt et fald i investeringerne bag det skuffende resultat. Periferilandene holdt et pænt væksttempo, som vi dog venter vil aftage i andet halvår. Grækenland: Det græske parlament vedtog hjælpepakken med 222 ud af 297 stemmer. Der er dog nu udsigt til en tillidsafstemning torsdag om den siddende mindretalsregering med Tsipras i spidsen. Det sker efter at afstemningen om hjælpepakken kun vandt opbakning fra 118 ud af de 163 parlamentsmedlemmer i hans koalitionsregering, mod de krævede 120, der skal til for at drive en mindretalsregering. Hvis Tsipras ikke får den nødvendige opbakning ved tillidsafstemningen, vil han sandsynligvis udskrive nyt parlamentsvalg. Eurofinansministrene accepterede den græske hjælpepakke på op til 86 mia. EUR, og ifølge Dijsselbloem udelukkede man en nedskrivning af gælden, men man er klar til at benytte andre gældslettelser. Vigtigheden af at få IMF med i pakken blev understreget, og Merkel udelukkede i tale ikke eventuel forlængelse af græske lån. Første tranche af lånet bliver på 26 mia. EUR, heraf udbetales 10 mia. inden den 20. aug. Hollands parlament godkendte fredag hjælpepakken. Euroområdet: Fortsat moderat opsving Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 17. august 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,58% / indeks 1.029,33) endte i positivt territorium på ugens sidste handelsdag og fulgte dermed strømmen fra de resterende europæiske aktiemarkeder. I toppen af indekset endte Genmab (+2,16% / kurs 639,00) efter selskabet meddelte, at de har indgået en kommerciel licensaftale med Novo Nordisk om selskabets Duobodyteknologi. Som en del af aftalen tildeles Novo Nordisk to kommercielle licenser til Duobody, mens Genmab til gengæld modtager 2 mio. dollars på forhånd. Nyheden gav også Novo Nordisk (+1,44% / kurs 387,90) momentum. I den anden ende af indekset endte høreapparatselskabet GN Store Nord (-2,04% / kurs 124,80) og fortsatte dermed torsdag deroute i kølvandet på det skuffende kvartalsregnskab efter flere finanshuse har sænket kursmålet på aktien. William Demant (-0,75% / kurs 527,00) endte også lavere på trods af at høreapparatselskabet rapporterede et regnskab, som blandt andet bød på en præcisering af forventningerne til driftsresultatet (EBIT) for helåret.. Renter Obligationsrenter var rimeligt stabile over fredagen. Først på dagen tog de tyske benchmarkstatsrenter (samt danske) en tur nedad efter at BNP-væksten viste sig svagere end ventet i 2. kvartal. Senere på dagen steg renterne igen, eventuelt hjulpet af at det græske parlament vedtog hjælpepakken. Det skete dog ikke uden intern modstand i koalitionsregeringen. De græske renter tog viste et nyt pænt fald på nyheden. Senere på dagen holdt euro-finansministrene møde om hjælpepakken, hvor den blev vedtaget dog uden man kom konkrete gældslettelser for landet nærmere. Fra USA modtog vi om eftermiddagen en noget større stigning i industriproduktionen end ventet. Kombineret med lidt højere producentpriser end ventet Sendte det obligationsrenterne opad om eftermiddagen. Et lille fald i forbrugertilliden fra University of Michigan bremsede dog lidt af stigningen i renterne. Renterne i USA, Tyskland og herhjemme (10- årige) endte således dagen med en stigning. Valuta EUR blev svækket en smule først på fredagen i forbindelse med offentliggørelsen af svagere BNP-vækst end ventet. Senere kom EUR sig dog lidt igen sandsynligvis understøttet af, at det græske parlament vedtog hjælpepakken. USD modtog støtte fra højere end ventet industriproduktion samt et mindre fald i producentprisinflationen end ventet. Forbrugertilliden fra University of Michigan skuffede en smule men EUR/USD-krydset endte stadig fredagen ned. JPY blev styrket en smule mod EUR, understøttet at ok BNP-tal til morgen. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 17. august 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Royal Unibrew 2. kvartal ALK-Abello 2. kvartal Auriga 2. kvartal Jyske Bank 2. kvartal Simcorp 2. kvartal Carlsberg 2. kvartal H+H International 2. kvartal Lundbeck 2. kvartal Sydbank 2. kvartal Topdanmark 2. kvartal Vestas 2. kvartal Alm. Brand 2. kvartal DFDS 2. kvartal NKT Holding 2. kvartal Santa Fe Group 2. kvartal NNIT 2. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM/YoY) Aug %/5.1% -0.8%/6.4% :50 Japan GDP SA QoQ 2Q P -0.5% % -0.4% :30 USA Empire Manufacturing Aug :00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index Aug :30 Kina China July Property Prices :30 UK CPI (MoM/YoY) Jul -0.3%/0.0% -- 0%/0.0% :30 UK CPI Core YoY Jul 0.8% % :30 UK ONS House Price YoY Jun % :30 USA Housing Starts Jul 1200K K :30 USA Building Permits Jul 1210K K :50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Jul B B :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 14. aug % :30 USA CPI (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.2%/0.2% /0.1% 0.3%/0.1% :30 USA CPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.2%/1.8% /1.8% 0.2%/1.8% :00 USA U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from July FOMC Meeting :00 Tyskland PPI (MoM/YoY) Jul 0%/-1.3% %/-1.4% :45 USA Fed's John Williams Speaks :00 Danmark Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Jul %/ 0.6%/1.5% :30 Sverige Unemployment Rate SA Jul % :00 Norge GDP QoQ 2Q -0.1% % :00 Norge GDP Mainland QoQ 2Q 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% :30 UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.4%/4.4% %%4.0% :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 15. aug 270K K :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 16. aug % :00 USA Existing Home Sales Jul 5.42M M :00 USA Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Aug :00 USA Leading Index Jul 0.2% % :00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Sep :00 Danmark Consumer Confidence Indicator Aug :30 UK PSNB ex Banking Groups Jul -1.1B B :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Aug P :00 EMU Consumer Confidence Aug A Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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5 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Johan Sahlström Chief Credit Strategist Ronny Berg Senior Credit Strategist Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Macro Research Jan Häggström Chief Economist Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research Knut Anton Mork Senior Economist, Norway and China Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Per Wall Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC