Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 13. maj 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Fra euroområdet får vi kl. 11 tal for BNP og industriproduktionen, og inden da kommer BNP for Tyskland, Frankrig og Italien Vi forventer, at den reale BNP-vækst i euroområdet samlet set stiger med 0,5% q/q i 1. kvartal op fra 0,3% q/q i 4. kvartal Vi har modtaget solide væksttegn fra forskellige ledende indikatorer, og vi forventer, at stigningen er bredt funderet. Således ventes industriproduktionen (se nedenfor), at have bidraget pænt til den overordnede vækst gennem øgede investeringer og eksport. Med hensyn til privatforbruget, har forbrugertilliden genvundet styrken fra 2007 og detailsalget har fastholdt et solidt tempo i 1. kvartal, hvilket bør give plads til øget vækst i forbruget i henhold til nationalregnskabsopgørelsen. Vi har allerede fået BNP-tal fra Belgien og Spanien, hvor især sidstnævnte viste en positiv overraskelse med en vækst på 0,9% q/q op fra forrige 0,7% q/q. Industriproduktionen forventes at falde med 0,1% m/m i marts efter en solid stigning på 1,1% i februar. Det er blevet foreslået af allerede offentliggjorte nationale produktionstal, hvor især Tyskland skuffede. Derudover har vi set fortsat positive stemningsbarometre for fremstillingssektoren. Vi forventer, at produktionstallene i marts vil føre produktionen op i en vækst på 0,8 for hele 1. kvartal mod 0,4 procent i 4. kvartal Bank of England offentliggør inflationsrapport i dag, og BoE-chef Carney offentliggør sit forklaringsbrev til finansministeren udløst af den aktuelle inflations store afvigelse fra målet på 2%. Detailsalgstal fra USA for april kommer i dag. I marts rettede salget sig pænt igen efter de forrige par måneders skuffende fald, som især sås relateret til det unormale vejr. I april ventes en ny stigning på omkring 0,3% m/m i det totale salg (ned fra forrige 0,9% m/m, hvilket især baseres på det robuste niveau for forbrugertilliden. En del af vækstopbremsningen her skyldes dog, at bilsalget ser ud til at være faldet i april oven på det store løft i marts. Ser man bort fra dette, bør salget vise pæne takter, som i stigende grad retter ind efter tillidsmålingerne (se figuren). Mens denne Morgenmelding rammer din indbakke offentliggøres de sædvanlige månedlige kinesiske aktivitetsindikatorer. Væksten i industriproduktionen er faldet løbende de seneste år, og faldet er accelereret de sidste par måneder. I april ventes industriproduktionsvæksten dog at være steget lidt til 6,0% y/y fra 5,6% i marts. De kinesiske nytår faldt senere end normalt i år, og trak måske ned i industriproduktionen ikke kun som normalt i februar men også i marts. I april var alle fabrikker dog oppe at køre igen. Selv konsensusforventningen om en stigning i årsvækstraten til 6,0% y/y svarer til et absolut fald i industriproduktionen fra marts til april, og det understreger, at opbremsningen i Kinas økonomi er accelereret. Investerings- og detailomsætningsvæksten ventes at have stabiliseret sig eller være steget lidt. EMU: Barometre har peget på vækstløft i Q1 USA: Detailsalget retter ind efter tillid Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Obligationsrenterne fortsatte deres himmelflugt i går, især i Europa, og det var medvirkende til kursfald på de fleste aktiemarkeder, igen mest udtalt i Europa. Asiatiske aktier ligger i plus her til morgen. EUR stærkere over for USD i går. USA: NFIB s tillidsindeks blandt de mindre virksomheder steg i april til 96,9 fra 95,2 i marts. Der var kun ventet en stigning til 96,0. Dermed rettede indekset sig pænt efter det i marts faldt til det laveste niveau i ni måneder. Nettoantallet af virksomheder, som siger de planlægger at øge lønningerne, steg marginalt til 14 fra 13 i marts. JOLT s opgørelse over nye jobopslag faldt til 4994 i marts fra rekordhøje 5144 februar. Grækenland: Grækenland gennemførte i går som allerede annonceret en planmæssig betaling til IMF, men i går kom det frem, at en stor del af beløbet er skaffet ved at trække på en anden græsk konto hos netop IMF. Japan: Overskuddet på betalingsbalancens løbende poster steg overraskende meget fra 1440 mia. JPY i februar til 2795 mia. JPY i marts, det største månedlige overskud i syv år. Storbritannien: Industriproduktionen steg overraskende med hele 0,5% m/m i marts. Der var ventet flad udvikling. Dermed steg årsstigningstakten til 0,7% y/y fra 0,1% i februar. Den positive overraskelse var især drevet af olie- og gasudvinding. Den del af industriproduktionen, som stammer fra fremstillingssektoren, steg kun med 1,1% y/y på linje med konsensus og uændret ift. februar. Sverige: Inflationen faldt markant fra 0,2% y/y i marts til -0,2% y/y i april. Konsensus havde ventet uændret inflation, og Riksbanken havde tilmed en lille stigning i sin seneste inflationsprognose (se figur). Sveriges fortsatte flirt med negativ inflation øger sandsynligheden for, at Riksbanken kommer med endnu en rentenedsættelse og/eller øger opkøbsprogrammet. Svensk inflation under Riksbankens prognose For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 13. maj 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-1,35% / indeks 993,79) endte gårsdagens handel i negativt territorium. I bunden af indekset endte Carlsberg (-4,70% / kurs 608,00) som rapporterede 1. kvartalsregnskab der ved første øjekast så ud som om det var bedre end ventet. Men når man dykkede ned i tallene, så skyldes den positive overraskelse en kombination af en positiv effekt fra påsken som faldt tidligt i år og lageropbygning blandt flere af Carlsbergs kunder. Renset for disse 2 effekter, så regnskabet således mindre imponerende ud. Herudover så skuffede udviklingen på det russiske marked relativt til markedets forventninger, på trods af, at forventningerne ellers var lave. Pandora (-3,26% / kurs 682,00) var også aktuel med rapportering af 1. kvartalsregnskab. Og selvom Pandora også formåede, at overgå markedets forventninger til både topog bundlinjen, så var det ikke nok til, at løfte aktien. Det skyldes formentligt, at Pandoraaktien i de seneste 3 måneder frem mod regnskabet var steget med 55%. Dermed skulle der mere end et stærkt regnskab til, at løfte aktien yderligere. I toppen af det ledende indeks endte blandt andet FLSmidth (+0,46% / kurs 308,30), som formentligt stadig nød godt af, at en række finanshuse dagen forinden hævede deres kursmål i kølvandet på selskabets relativt pæne 1. kvartalsregnskab. Renter Obligationsrenterne i Europa fortsatte deres himmelflugt i går. Udover den generelle tendens til rentestigninger som følge af bl.a. højere oliepris, mindsket deflationsfrygt og bedre makroøkonomiske nøgletal, fik rentestigningerne også medvind fra situationen i Grækenland, hvor det kom frem, at gårsdagens græske afdrag på gælden til IMF primært var finansieret ved træk på Grækenlands konto hos netop IMF. De amerikanske statsrenter fulgte med de tyske op, understøttet af at NFIB s tillidsindeks for de mindre virksomheder steg overraskende meget. Renterne i USA faldt dog tilbage igen sent i den amerikanske handel og endte stort set uændret over dagen. Valuta EUR styrkedes i går over USD i takt med markante obligationsrentestigninger især i Tyskland. Og efter en lille modgående bevægelse i går aftes, er styrkelsestendensen genoptaget her til morgen. GBP styrkedes markant over for USD i går efter overraskende stærke industriproduktionstal. Den positive overraskelse var især drevet af olie- og gasudvinding, mens den del af industriproduktionen, som stammer fra fremstillingssektoren, steg moderat og på linje med konsensus. GBP styrkedes ikke over for EUR. SEK svækkedes i går formiddag over for EUR efter svensk inflation overraskende faldt markant fra 0,2% y/y i marts til -0,2% y/y i april. Konsensus havde ventet uændret inflation. Sveriges fortsatte flirt med negativ inflation øger sandsynligheden for, at Riksbanken kommer med endnu en rentenedsættelse og/eller øger opkøbsprogrammet. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 13. maj 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 12/05/15 Carlsberg 1. kvartal 12/05/15 D/S Norden 1. kvartal 12/05/15 Pandora 2. kvartal 12/05/15 Genmab 1. kvartal 12/05/15 NNIT 1. kvartal 12/05/15 Alm. Brand 1. kvartal 13/05/15 A.P. Møller-Mærsk 1. kvartal 13/05/15 NKT Holding 1. kvartal 13/05/15 DS Torm 1. kvartal 13/05/15 Højgaard Holding 1. kvartal 13/05/15 Greentech 1. kvartal 13/05/15 Vestjysk Bank 1. kvartal 13/05/15 IC Group 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 11/05/15 08:00 Sverige PES Unemployment Rate Apr % 3.8% 11/05/15 09:00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Mar B 6.8B 8.5B 11/05/15 09:00 Danmark Current Account Balance Mar B 11.4B (r) 2.9B 11/05/15 09:00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) Apr %/0.5% 0.5%/0.6% 0.1%/0.5% 11/05/15 09:00 Danmark CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Apr %/0.3% 0.5%/0.3% 0.2%/0.4% 11/05/15 10:00 Norge CPI (MoM/YoY) Apr %/2.0% 0.4%/2.0% 11/05/15 10:00 Norge CPI Underlying (MoM/YoY) Apr %/ 0.4%/2.3% 0.4%/2.1% 11/05/15 13:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target May 375B 375B 375B 375B 11/05/15 13:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate May % 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 11/05/15 15:00 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels Kina Aggregate Financing CNY Apr B B Kina New Yuan Loans CNY Apr 900.0B B 12/05/15 09:00 EMU EU Finance Ministers Hold Meeting in Brussels 12/05/15 09:30 Sverige CPI (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.4%/0.2% 0.3%/0.1% 0.1%/0.2% 0.0%/-0.2% 12/05/15 09:30 Sverige CPI CPIF (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.5%/1.0% 0.4%/0.9% 0.1%/0.9% 0.2%/0.7% 12/05/15 10:30 UK Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.0%/0.1% %/0.1% 0.5%/0.7% 12/05/15 15:00 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism Apr /05/15 16:00 USA JOLTS Job Openings Mar 5, ,133 4,994 12/05/15 18:45 USA Fed's Williams Speaks 13/05/15 07:30 Frankrig GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q P %/0.2% 13/05/15 07:30 Kina Retail Sales YoY Apr 10.4% % 13/05/15 07:30 Kina Industrial Production YoY Apr 6.0% 5.80% 5.6% 13/05/15 08:00 Tyskland GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q P 0.5%/1.3% %/1.4% 13/05/15 08:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Apr F 13/05/15 08:00 Tyskland CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Apr F 13/05/15 08:45 Frankrig CPI (MoM/YoY) Apr %/-0.1% 13/05/15 10:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Mar 5.5% % 13/05/15 11:00 EMU Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Mar -0.3%/1.5% -0.1%/ 1.1%/1.6% 13/05/15 11:00 EMU GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q A 0.4%/1.0% 0.5%/ 0.3%/0.9% 13/05/15 11:30 UK Bank of England Inflation Report 13/05/15 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications May % 13/05/15 14:30 USA Retail Sales Advance MoM Apr 0.2% % 13/05/15 14:30 USA Retail Sales Control Group Apr 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 13/05/15 14:30 USA Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.2%/-9.8% %/-10.5% 14/05/15 01:01 UK RICS House Price Balance Apr /05/15 08:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY Apr P % 14/05/15 14:30 USA PPI Final Demand (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.1%/-0.8% %/-0.8% 14/05/15 14:30 USA PPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.1%/1.0% %/0.9% 14/05/15 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims May K 14/05/15 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort May /05/15 07:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index Apr /05/15 14:30 USA Empire Manufacturing May /05/15 15:15 USA Industrial Production MoM Apr 0.0% % 15/05/15 15:15 USA Manufacturing (SIC) Production Apr 0.2% % 15/05/15 16:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment May P Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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