Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 10. juni 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Kalenderne er også lidt tynd onsdag, hvor der dog kan være lidt nordisk fokus på forbrugerpriser fra Danmark og Norge samt svensk industriproduktion. Forbrugerpriserne i Danmark ventes at være steget med 0,2% m/m i maj, hvilket er en lille smule over konsensus. Det er især højere benzinpriser og priser på boligudstyr, der ventes at have trukket op i forbrugerpriserne, mens priserne på tøj ventes at være faldet som følge at tidlige udsalg - en tendens vi også så sidste år. Det betyder, at årsstigningstakten i forbrugerpriserne ventes at være trukket i vejret fra 0,5% y/y til 0,8% y/y - det højeste niveau siden juli sidste år. Igen er det primært mindre negative effekter fra energipriserne, der er den primære årsag til den højere inflation. Dermed følger den danske inflation i fodsporene på udviklingen i bl.a. euroområdet (se figur), hvor vi lægger den kortvarige flirt med deflation længere bag os. I euroområdet kan der være lidt fokus på nationale opgørelser for industriproduktionen i april i Frankrig og Italien. Der ventes moderate stigninger på omkring 0,4% m/m begge steder, hvilket stort set er på linje med forventningerne til udfaldet af den samlede industriproduktion for euroområdet, som vi modtager på fredag. Med hensyn til Grækenland har Tsipras bedt om møde med Hollande og Merkel i Bruxelles i dag. Han har antydet, at en eventuel aftale om tidshorisonter skal diskuteres i dag. I USA vil modtager vi blot den ugentlige opgørelse af realkreditansøgningerne, som kan være af interesse. Ansøgninger har vist tegn på opbremsning de seneste uger. DK: Inflationen fortsætter op som i euroområdet Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Obligationsrenter i ny stor stigning. Aktiemarkederne i Europa med nyt fald, mens USA handler mere fladt. Asien-børser i lille stigning på trods af MSCI s Kina-udmelding samt efter Kuroda ikke så svagere JPY, hvilket styrkede valutaen markant. Kina: MSCI valgte alligevel ikke at inkludere kinesiske aktier fra Shanghai-børsen i sit vigtige MSCI Emerging Markets indeks ved den årlige revision, sådan som mange ellers havde spekuleret i. MSCI udtalte dog, at aktierne godt kunne blive inkluderet inden den næste årlige revision, hvis der i mellemtiden bliver åbnet tilstrækkeligt op for udenlandske investorers adgang til kinesiske aktier. USA: NFIB s aktivitetsindeks for de mindre virksomheder steg igen mere end ventet i maj, hvor indekset nåede op på 98,3 fra forrige 96,9. Dermed er barometeret oppe på det højeste niveau i år, og det understreger, at den svage start på året nu er lagt bag os. Indekset blev især understøttet af bedring i vurderingen af de økonomiske udsigter, herunder bedring investeringsplaner og indtjeningstendenser. Desuden så virksomhederne højere salgspriser samt havde øgede beskæftigelsesplaner. Med hensyn til beskæftigelsen modtog vi også JOLT-rapporten. Denne viste sig yderst stærk, da den steg noget mere end ventet til rekordhøje 5,376 mio. nye job i april, hvilket er historisk højt (se figur). Dog faldt antallet af opsigelse tilbage, hvilket indikerer afdæmpet lønvækst. Euroområdet: ECB s Liikanen samt Makuch udtaler, at man holder øje med obligationsrenterne, men ikke ser grund til at reagere på nuværende tidspunkt. Dermed følger de op på Noyer som mandag udtalte, at ECB man overvåger markedsvolatiliteten med ekstrem omhu. ECB s Mersch så dog højere renter berettiget via løftede vækstog inflationsudsigter. Grækenland: Efter forlydende skulle regeringen have sendt et tresiders aftaleudkast til de internationale kreditorer. Udkastet skulle især omhandle finanspolitiske målsætninger, og under landets finansieringsmuligheder skulle det indeholde en udbetaling fra ESM til dækning af landets forpligtelser frem til og med august. En anonym person tæt på kreditorerne skulle have udtalt, at udspillet blot er et opkog af tidligere forslag og stadig ikke anses som troværdigt Schweiz: Forbrugerpriserne steg lidt mere end ventet i maj med 0,2% m/m, men det kunne ikke hindre, at årsinflationen ramte det rekordlave niveau fra 2009 (siden 1959) på -1,2%, hvilket stadig er en udløber af CHF-styrkelsen i begyndelsen af året. Danmark: Det var kun kortvarigt at vi kunne have armene højt løftet over hovedet efter sidste måneds flotte eksporttal, for i april blev en stor del af luften pillet ud af ballonen igen. Efter at være steget med 8,4% m/m i marts faldt vareeksporten således med 5,6% m/m i april. Faldet var dog ventet baseret på industriens omsætning på eksportmarkederne, og da der ofte er tilbagefald efter så store stigninger som vi så i marts. Antallet af nyregistrerede biler faldt med 9,4% m/m i maj. Set i perioden fra marts til maj ligger bilsalget således 4,3% lavere end i den foregående tremåneders periode. Hvis den lidt mere kedelige tendens fortsætter, betyder det, at bilsalget ikke vil fungere som trækmotor for det samlede privatforbrug. USA: Antallet af jobopslag i ny rekord Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 10. juni 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,78% / indeks 985,63) endte gårsdagens handel i negativt terræn. Den negative stemning var i høj grad relateret til den græske gældssituation. Investorerne er således fanget i et tomrum hvor de formentligt må vente til udgangen af måneden på, at Grækenland eventuelt betaler deres næste lånetranche til IMF på 1,5 mia. euro. I toppen af indekset endte GN Store Nord (+6,56% / kurs 146,30) efter der blev offentliggjort stærke salgstal for maj måned fra det amerikanske VA- segment, som er kendt for, at være en god indikator for udviklingen på det øvrige amerikanske høreapparatmarked. Således viste tallene, at GN ReSound har øget sin markedsandel i det amerikanske VA-segment til 16,5% i maj fra 12% i april. Fremgangen har især været drevet af lanceringen af høreapparatet LINX 2. Novo Nordisk (-0,59% / kurs 369,60) fik lidt eftersom det amerikanske finanshus Morgan Stanley hævede sin anbefaling på aktien fra Hold til Køb. Herudover hævede Morgan Stanley kursmålet til 435 kr. fra tidligere 358 kr. Uden for C20-indekset var Zealand Pharma (+2,54% / kurs 121,00) i fokus efter selskabet i samarbejde med franske Sanofi på den amerikanske diabeteskonference offentliggjorde et stort hjerte-karstudie for selskabets GLP-1-middel Lyxumia. Studiet viste, at der ikke er en forhøjet risiko for hjerte- og hjerte-kar-lidelser ved brugen af Lyxumia. Sanofi vil i løbet af et par uger indsende en registreringsansøgning til de amerikanske sundhedsmyndigheder. Renter Danske og tyske obligationsrenter drev stort set sidelæns første del af onsdagen, hvor det var småt med økonomiske nyheder. Dog fyldte Grækenland igen lidt i overskrifterne, i forbindelse med at regeringen skulle have sendt de internationale kreditorer et nyt aftaleudkast. Der var dog anonyme kritiske røster fra personer tæt på kreditorerne. Ikke desto mindre indsnævrede andre EUR-periferirenter spændet til Tyskland lidt efter nyheden. Udtalelser fra ECB s Makuch og Liiknanen indikerede, at ECB ikke er bekymret om rentestigningen endnu, hvilket måske hjalp renterne pænt opad senere på dagen. Her trak de amerikanske renter dog også de europæiske med i vejret, så de lukkede højere endnu en dag. Rentestigningen blev her blandt andet tilskrevet auktion over USD 24 mia. 3-årige statspapirer. Ydermere blev rentestigningen understøttet af en bedre end ventet opgørelse af NFIB-indekset samt JOLT-rapporten. Valuta EUR blev svækket efter nyheden om at et nyt græsk aftale-udkast umiddelbart fik en kølig modtagelse blandt de internationale kreditorer. Udtalelser om at ECB aktuelt ikke er bekymret for rentestigningen var måske medvirkende til at EUR rettede sig lidt sidst på dagen. GBP, SEK og især NOK blev alle styrket over for EUR. USD blev styrket, hvilket fik medvind fra et stærkere udfald af NFIB-indekset samt JOLTrapporten end ventet i maj. USD faldt dog tilbage senere på dagen. JPY blev styrket, en tendens som fik yderligere styrke til morgen efter at BoJ-chef Kuroda udtalte, at det er svært at se den reale valutakurs falde yderligere. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 10. juni 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :50 Japan GDP SA QoQ 1Q F 0.7% % 1.0% :00 Tyskland Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.6%/0.9% %/0.1% 0.9%/1.4% :00 Tyskland Exports SA MoM Apr % 1.2% :30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentiment May :00 Danmark Industrial Production MoM Apr % -0.7% :00 EMU ECB's Constancio Speaks :30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Jun Kina Exports/Import (YoY) May -4.0% % -2.8%/-18.1% :30 Kina CPI YoY May 1.4% % 1.2% :30 Kina PPI YoY May -4.5% % -4.6% :00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index May :45 Schweiz Unemployment Rate SA May 3.4% % 3.3% :00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Apr B 8.5B 9.3B :00 Danmark Current Account (Non Seasonally Adjusted) Apr B 2.9B 3.6B :15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) May 0.1%/-1.2% 0.2%/-1.1% -0.2%/-1.1% :00 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism May :00 USA JOLTS Job Openings Apr 5044K K 5376K :50 Japan Machine Orders (MoM/YoY) Apr -2.1%/-1.4% %/2.6% 3.8%/3.0% :45 Frankrig Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.4%/1.0% %/1.3% :00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) May 0.1%/0.7% 0.2%/0.8% 0.1%/0.5% :00 Danmark CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) May %/0.7% 0.2%/0.4% :30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.2%/-2.0% -0.5%/-2.9% 0.8%/0.3% :00 Norge CPI (MoM/YoY) May 0.2%/2.1% %/2.0% :00 Norge CPI Underlying (MoM/YoY) May 0.3%/2.3% /2.3% 0.4%/2.1% :30 UK Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.1%/0.6% %/0.7% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications jun :00 USA Monthly Budget Statement May -$97.5B -- -$130.0B Kina Aggregate Financing CNY May B B Kina New Yuan Loans CNY May 850.0B B :01 UK RICS House Price Balance May 36% -- 33% :30 Kina Retail Sales YoY May 10.2% 10.1% 10.0% :30 Kina Industrial Production YoY May 6.0% 6.0% 5.9% :30 Kina Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY May 11.9% 12.0% 12.0% :45 Frankrig CPI (MoM/YoY) May %/0.1% :30 Sverige CPI (MoM/YoY) May -0.2%/-0.1% 0.3%/0.0% 0%/-0.2% :30 Sverige CPI CPIF (MoM/YoY) May 0.2%/0.8% 0.3%/0.9% 0.2%/0.7% :30 USA Retail Sales Advance MoM May 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% :30 USA Retail Sales Control Group May 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% :30 USA Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) May 0.8% %/-10.7% :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 06. jun 275K K :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 07. jun :00 EMU Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.4%/1.1% 0.5%/ -0.3%/1.8% :30 USA PPI Final Demand (MoM/YoY) May 0.4%/-1.1% %/-1.3% :30 USA PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM May 0.1%/0.7% %/0.8% :00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Jun P Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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