Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 11. juni 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus I dag er der udsigt til en meget stille dag med hensyn til økonomiske begivenheder. Der kan først på dagen være en smule fokus på britiske tal for arbejdsmarkedet. Ledigheden er faldet støt de seneste måneder samtidigt med at beskæftigelsen er trukket opad i et højere tempo end ventet. Det har bidraget til optimismen omkring økonomien, og understøttet spekulationer om Bank of England vil fokusere mere på mulighederne for opstramninger. Senere på dagen vil der kunne komme lidt fokus på realkreditansøgninger i USA, som vedrører udviklingen i sidste uge. Ansøgninger i forbindelse med huskøb har skuffende vist fald de seneste fire uger, og viser således stadig ikke tegn på, at omsætningen på boligmarkedet er på vej op i et højere gear oven på den seneste tendens til stabilisering (jf. figur). USA: Realkreditansøgninger stadig svage Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne i Europa tager endnu et skridt opad, mens renterne stiger en smule og USD svækkes/jpy styrkes. Aktiemarkederne i USA og Asien (eks. Japan) faldt lidt tilbage, bla. efter Verdensbanken sænkede sit globale vækstskøn for i år til 2,8% fra 3,2%, især pga. svag start på året i USA. USA: NFIB s aktivitetsindeks for de mindre virksomheder steg mere end ventet til 96,6 i maj og nåede dermed nyt højeste niveau siden Her var det især positivt at beskæftigelsesindekset steg en tand og dermed peger på øget beskæftigelsestempo et par måneder frem. Derudover steg indekset på en generel bedring i forventningerne til en bedre økonomi. Med hensyn til arbejdsmarkedet modtog vi desuden JOLT s opgørelse over nye stillinger steg markant endnu en måned, da den steg fra opreviderede 4,17 mio. i marts til 4,46 mio. i april det højeste niveau i knapt syv år. Tallet som er en af de ni indikatorer for arbejdsmarkedet, som Fed-chef Yellen holder øje med bekræfter dermed bedringen på arbejdsmarkedet vi har set i andre statistikker. Japan: Premiereminister Abe offentliggjorde hovedpunkterne i regeringens nye vækststrategi (den tredje pil). Det var dog sparsomt med detaljer, hvor det vigtigste var at der er tale om en vækstorienteret selskabsskattereform. Skattesænkninger vil begynde i det nye finansår april Euroområdet: Industriproduktionen i Frankrig steg som ventet med 0,3% m/m i april, og samtidigt blev faldet i marts revideret ned til -0,4% m/m. Ydermere modtog vi industriproduktion fra Italien, som bød på en uventet stor stigning i april på 0,7% m/m. Sammen med allerede offentliggjorte tal fra Tyskland og Spanien tyder det på, at industriproduktionen i hele euroområdet kommer ud på omkring 0,4%-0,5% m/m (kommer i morgen). Vi skal tilbage til november 2013 for at finde en større stigning, og dermed er der tegn på en bedring i industrien efter en svag start på Derudover var der en række taler fra medlemmer af ECB s Styrelsesråd. Coeure (Frankrig) understregede, at ECB ikke er i nødberedskab mere, men at opsvinget stadig er svagt. Makuch (Slovakiet) mente derudover, at der var råderum til yderligere sænkelser af styringsrenterne eller ændring af rentekorridoren. Liikanen (Finland) supplerede med, at ECB-aktion ikke er overstået, hvis behovet for yderligere tiltag opstår. Mersch (Luxemburg) ser ikke deflation, men forhøjet risiko blandt bankerne, med betydelige nedskrivninger forude. Grækenland: IMF s femte gennemgang af landets økonomiske justeringsprogram viste fine fremskridt, men ser finansieringshul på 12,6 mia. EUR i Storbritannien: Industriproduktionen steg som ventet med 0,3% m/m i april, men en oprevidering af marts betød en højere end ventet årsvækstrate på 3,0% i april den højeste siden begyndelsen af Danmark: Forbrugerpriserne faldt med 0,1% m/m i maj. Det var svagere end ventet især pga. lavere priser på energi, tøj (tendens til tidligere udsalg) og charterrejser. Det betød, at årsstigningstakten i forbrugerpriserne faldt mere end ventet fra 0,7% til 0,5% i maj. Det betyder, at den lidt overraskende stigning i inflationen i forrige måned ikke umiddelbart markerede en bund i inflationen. Indtrykket af at dansk økonomi befinder sig i et lavinflationsscenarie er således fortsat intakt. Efter at industriproduktionen steg kraftigt i de tre første måneder af 2014, hvor specielt fremgangen i marts på 4,7% m/m var meget markant, var der som ventet et tilbagefald i produktionen i april på 1,4% m/m. Faldet var dog mindre end ventet. En af årsagerne til den mere negative udvikling var især et stort fald i den volatile medicinproduktion, som steg kraftigt i marts. Tegn på mindre bedring i euro-produktionen For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 11. juni 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,64% / indeks 821,15) sluttede ugens første handelsdag med at sætte ny rekord. I toppen af indekset endte Novo Nordisk (+3,25% / kurs 244,30) efter der i weekenden blev offentliggjort dele af resultatet fra et sammenligningsstudie mellem Novo Nordisks Victoza og det konkurrerende GLP-1 middel Dulaglutide fra Elly Lilly. Resultaterne viste blandt andet at patienter der anvender Victoza fik et større vægttab end dem som anvendte det Dulaglutide. Carlsberg (+1,92% / kurs 582,50) fulgte også godt med på trods af at der ikke var nogen nævneværdige selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Topdanmark (-0,72% / kurs 166,80) havde en knap så god dag i kølvandet på at et nordisk finanshus sænkede deres anbefaling på aktien fra Køb til Hold, som følge af den seneste tids stærke kursudvikling. I bunden af indekset endte Vestas (-2,00% / kurs 294,20) på trods af at selskabet fik hævet sit kursmål med 35% af en schweizisk storbank.. Renter Obligationsrenterne lagde tirsdagen ud på lidt lavere niveauer, men steg derefter en smule på en relativt stille dag. Medvirkende til at sende renterne en smule i vejret var dog en let positiv stemning på aktiemarkederne, mens fremgang i industriproduktionen i såvel Frankrig og især i Italien givet var med til at understøtte rentestigningen i tysk og dansk regning. Rentestigningen blev dog nok bremset efter at ECB s Makuch og Liikanen så råderum for yderligere rentesænkninger, hvis det skulle vise sig nødvendigt. Senere på dagen fik rentestigningen desuden lidt støtte i USA fra udsigten til en uge med pænt auktionsudbud af amerikanske statsobligationer samt fra en uventet stor stigning i NFIB-indekset samt i JOLT s statistik over ledige stillinger i USA i maj. Valuta På valutamarkedet så det ud til at ECB s lempelsesaktion fra sidste uge stadig havde lidt bid, da EUR blev svækket endnu en dag over for USD. Det på trods af at vi modtog et par fornuftige udfald af industriproduktionen i Italien og til dels Frankrig. På den anden side støttede et par ECB-taler op om EURsvækkelsen, herunder da ECB s Makuch og Liikanen så råderum for yderligere nedsættelser af styringsrenterne. USD blev styrket, hvilket fik medvind fra en uventet stor stigning i NFIB-indekset samt i JOLT-statistikken over ledige stillinger. GBP blev styrket efter industriproduktionen her viste sig en anelse mere robust end ventet i april. JPY blev styrket generelt efter regeringen offentliggjorde midlertidige hovedpunkter i dens nye vækststrategi. NOK blev styrket efter at forbrugerprisinflationen steg mere end ventet i maj. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP 821,2 0,64 USD/JPY 102,3-0,040 USA 2,65 0,06 CRB 305,5 1,64 Stoxx ,7 0,32 EUR/USD 1,354-0,005 Euroområdet 1,40 0,03 Brent oil (1M fut) 109,8-0,33 FTSE 6873,6-0,02 USD/DKK 5,511 0,019 Danmark 1,44 0,02 Gold (spot) 1261,4 0,54 S&P ,8-0,02 CHF/DKK 6,125 0,005 Nasdaq 4338,0 0,04 GBP/DKK 9,232 0,001 Hang Seng 23242,2-0,32 SEK/DKK 0,823 0,002 Nikkei 15032,5 0,25 NOK/DKK 0,922 0,002 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,125 0,125 0,750 2,65 2,80 3,20 3,50 EUR/USD 1,354 1,36 1,25 1,10 Euroland 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 1,40 1,65 1,90 2,00 USD/JPY 102,3 102,5 103,0 107,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,75 2,72 2,85 3,00 3,25 USD/DKK 5,511 5,49 5,96 6,77 Danmark 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 1,73 1,75 2,05 2,15 EUR/DKK 7,461 7,46 7,45 7,45 Sverige 0,75 0,50 0,50 1,00 1,82 2,15 2,50 2,80 SEK/DKK 0,8230 0,834 0,847 0,887 Norge 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 2,65 2,90 2,90 3,00 NOK/DKK 0,9217 0,899 0,898 0,909 2

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 11. juni 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :50 Japan GDP SA QoQ 1Q F 1.4% % 1.6% :30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Jun :10 USA Fed's Bullard, Rosengren Speaks :30 Kina CPI YoY May 2.4% % 2.5% :45 Schweiz Unemployment Rate SA May 3.1% % 3.2% :45 Frankrig Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.2%/-2.0% % 0.3%/-2.0% :00 Danmark Industrial Production MoM Apr -1.5% 3.8% 4.7% -1.4% :00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) May 0.0%/0.7% 0.0%/0.6% 0.2%/0.7% -0.1%/0.5% :00 Danmark CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) May %/0.3% 0.1%/0.5% 0.0%/0.3% :00 Norge CPI (MoM/YoY) May 0.1%/1.8% 0.1%/1.8% 0.4%/1.8% 0.1%/1.8% :00 Norge CPI Underlying (MoM/YoY) May 0.0%/2.2% 0.1%/2.3% 0.6%/2.5% 0.2%/2.3% :30 UK Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.3%/2.8% %/2.3% 0.4%/3.0% :30 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism May 95, , :00 USA JOLTs Job Openings Apr 4050, , :00 EMU ECB's Mersch, Poland's Belka Speak :15 EMU ECB's Mersch Speaks in Barcelona :30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Apr 6.7% % :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 06. jun % Kina New Yuan Loans May 750.0B B Kina Aggregate Financing RMB May B B :50 Japan Machine Orders (MoM/YoY) Apr -10.8%/13.3% %/16.1% :45 Frankrig CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) May /0.8% %/0.8% :30 Sverige CPI (MoM/YoY) May 0.0%/-0.1% 0.0%/-0.2% 0.4%/0.0% :30 Sverige CPI CPIF (MoM/YoY) May 0.1%/0.4% 0.1%/0.4% 0.4%/0.5% :30 Sverige Average House Prices May M :00 EMU Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.5%/0.9% 0.4%/0.7% -0.3%/-0.1% :30 USA Retail Sales Advance MoM May 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% :30 USA Retail Sales Control Group MoM May 0.3% 0.4% -0.1% :30 USA Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) May 0.2% %/-0.3% :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 07. jun K :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 08. jun :30 Kina Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY May 17.1% % :30 Kina Retail Sales YoY May 12.2% 12.1% 11.9% :30 Kina Industrial Production YoY May 8.8% 9.0% 8.7% :00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) May F -0.1%/0.9% %/0.9% :00 Tyskland CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) May F -0.3%/0.6% %/0.6% :30 Sverige Unemployment Rate SA May 8.1% 8.1% 8.2% :30 USA PPI Final Demand (MoM/YoY) May 0.1%/2.4% %/2.1% :30 USA PPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) May 0.1%/2.3% %/1.9% :55 USA Univ. of Michigan Confidence Jun P Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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