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1 Sendt: Til: Cc: Emne: AD ACTA: Attention: DeskBy: Formel E-post: Journalnr: Klassifikation: Personale indkaldes: 15. februar :06 UM - Komcenter (t) milsek@f .dk; fe@f .dk; FMN - Comcen; Official Mailbox, Ankara Embassy; Official Mailbox, Beijing Embassy; Official Mailbox, Cairo Embassy; Official Mailbox, Damascus Embassy; Official Mailbox, Geneva FN Mission; Official Mailbox, Haag Embassy; Official Mailbox, Islamabad Embassy; Official Mailbox, London Embassy; Official Mailbox, Madrid Embassy; Official Mailbox, Mexico Embassy; Official Mailbox, Moscow Embassy; Official Mailbox, Oslo Embassy; Official Mailbox, Ottawa Embassy; Official Mailbox, Paris Em bassy; Official Mailbox, Riyadh Embassy; Official Mailbox, Santiago Em bassy; Official Mailbox, Sofia Em bassy; Official Mailbox, Stockholm Em bassy; Official Mailbox, Tehran Embassy; Official Mailbox, Tel Aviv Em bassy; Official Mailbox, Vienna Embassy; Official Mailbox, Warsaw Embassy; Official Mailbox, Washington Em bassy; Officiel Mailbox, Berlin Ambassade; Officiel Mailbox, Bryssel DANATO; Officiel Mailbox, EU Repræsentationen; stm@stm.dk; aki@fmn.dk; Braad, Michael; Christensen, Bertel Dons; Christensen, Jan Top; Christensen, Tomas Anker; Christiansen, Thure; Faaborg-Andersen, Lars; Geelan, Kirsten; Hahn, Henrik Bramsen; Hansen, Peter Lysholt; Hansen, Tina Alice; Hjortsa, Michael Just; Holm, Klavs A.; Horslund, Jens Otto; Jargensen, Vibeke Rovsing (NY); Lassen, Christina Markus; Lauridsen, Morten Lykke; Laj, Ellen Margrethe; Lund-Sarensen, Thomas; Michelsen, Jette; Moesby, Ole; Mosgaard, Kurt; N.SP; N.USA; Olsen, Kasper Thams; Planck, Niklas; Riisgaard, Louise; S.FIN; S.HUM; S.MELA; Shine, Susanne; Sillasen, Grete; Sandergsiard, Carsten; Staur, Carsten; Svensson, Nikolaj; Szczepanski, Pia Starbæk; Thygesen, Trine Rask; Ullerup, Ove; Waggsborg, Niels Henrik; Zilmer-Johns, Michael; Braad, Michael; Poulsen, Jan Pirouz; Petersen, Michael Bach; Horslund, Jens Otto; Taksae-Jensen, Peter; NYCMISU, Archive; Jargensen, Vibeke Rovsing (NY) FN-Mis. New York MIS Irak. Åbent made i Sikkerhedsradet den 14. februar Mismail af d.d. NYCMIS (t), Archive vagttiavende/s.mela 8.00 d Ja 5.E.Irak UKLASSIFICERET Nej Til: Udenrigsrninisteriet;rnilsek@f .dk;fe@ - Comcen;Official Mailbox, Ankara Embassy;Official Mailbox, Beijing Embassy;Official Mailbox, Cairo Embassy;Official Mailbox, Damascus Embassy;Official Mailbox, Geneva FN Mission;Official Mailbox, Haag Embassy;Official Mailbox, Islamabad Embassy;Official Mailbox, London Embassy;Official Mailbox, Madrid Embassy;Official Mailbox, Mexico Embassy;Official Mailbox, Moscow Embassy;Official Mailbox, Oslo Embassy;Official Mailbox, Ottawa Embassy;Official Mailbox, Paris Embassy;Official Mailbox, Riyadh Embassy;Official Mailbox, Santiago Embassy;Official Mailbox, Sofia Embassy;Official Mailbox, Stockholm Embassy;Official Mailbox, Tehran Embassy;Official Mailbox, Te1 Aviv Embassy;Official Mailbox, Vienna Embassy;Official Mailbox, Warsaw Embassy;Official Mailbox, Washington Embassy;Officiel Mailbox, Berlin Ambassade;Officiel Mailbox, Bryssel DANAT0;Officiel Mailbox, EU Repr~sentationen;strn@strn.dk;aki@fmn.dk;Braad, Michael;Christensen, Bertel Dons;Christensen, Jan Top;Christensen, Tomas Anker;Christiansen, Thure;Faaborg-Andersen, Lars;Geelan, I(irsten;Hahn, Henrik Bramsen;Hansen, Peter Lysholt;Hansen, Tina Alice;Hjortsa, Mjchael Just;Holm, Klavs A.;Horslund, Jens Otto;Targensen, Vibeke Rovsing (NY);Lassen, Christina Markus;Lauridsen, Morten Lykke;Laj, Ellen Margrethe;Lund-Sarensen, Thomas;Michelsen, Jette;Moesby, Ole;Mosgaard, Kurt;N.SP;N.USA;Olsen, Kasper Thams;Planck, Niklas;Riisgaard, Louise;S.FIN;S.HUM;S.MELA;Shine, Susanne;Sillasen, Grete;Sandergaard, Carsten;Staur, Carsten;Svensson, Nikolaj;Szczepanski, Pia Starbcek;Thygesen, Trine Rask;Ullerup, Ove;Waggsborg, Niels Henrik;Zilmer-Johns, Michael;Braad, Michael;Poulsen, Jan Pirouz;Petersen, Michael 1

2 Bach;Horslund, Jens 0tto;Taksae-Jensen, Peter FN-Missionen New York E-post MIS161 af 14. februar :05:40 Desk By: 8.00 d J.nr.: 5.E.Irak Irak. Abent made i Sikkerhedsrådet den 14. februar Mismail0159 af d.d. Sammenfatning: * Blix opridser dels en rzkke fremskridt fra irakisk side, dels sztter spargsmålstegn ved en raekke af de amerikanske "bevisery'. Umiddelbart forekommer indlaegget som en relativt stzerk statte til den tysk-franske linje. Nzrlzsning giver imidlertid et mere balanceret indtryk. * Blix konkluderer på baggrund af ekspertmader, at dele af det irakiske missilprogram går ud over maksimumgr~nsen på 150 km og derfor i strid med resolution 687. * Villepin - i et indlzg som også må ses som et modsvar mod kritikken i amerikansk presse - foreslår nyt ministermade den 14. marts (ikke imadekommet under lukkede konsultationer). Forslag i franske "non-paper" ligger inden for resolution Ny resolution ikke påkr~vet. * Powell sztter i et stzrkt indlzg - uden manuskript - de irakiske "imadekommelser" i perspektiv. 1. Hans Blix' prmentation Der var to fremtrzdende elementer i UNMOVIC-formanden Hans Blix7 prmentation. Han, fremhzvede dels en rzkke punkter, hvor samarbejdet med Irak var blevet forbedret siden sidste afrapportering den 27. januar 2003, dels fremkom direkte eller indirekte med kritik af argumenter rejst fra amerikansk side. Det var dog hans konklusion at: "Today, three months after the adoption of resolution 1441 (2002), the period of disarmament through inspection could still be short, 'if immediate, active and unconditional cooperation' with UNMOVIC and IAEA were to be forthcoming". Denne sztning valgte iszr US, UK og Spanien at haefte sig ved i den efterfolgende debat. Falgende iagttagelser/ fremskridt siden 27. januar blev anfart: * Fortsat udbypng af UNMOVICs infrastruktur/kapacitet * Bagdad accepteret at reducere antallet af irakiske ledsagere ("mindersy') pr. inspektar fra 5 til 1 til ca. 1 til 1. * Gennemfart mere end 400 inspektioner på 300 steder. Ingen klare beviser for, at Irak havde forhåndskendskab til inspektionerne. * De mere end 300 biologiske og kemiske praver, der er gennemfart, har hidtil vzeret i overensstemmelse med de irakiske angivelser. * UNMOVIC har destrueret sennepsgas. * Irakisk accept af sydafrikansk forslag om erfaringsudveksling vedrorende frivillig nedrustning. * Eventuelt kan nye dokumenter samt en liste med interviewpersoner besvare nogle af de udestående spargsmål om miltbrand, VX og missiler. * I<ommissionen, som skal undersage sagen om de kemiske sprznghoveder, har fået

3 udvidet sit mandat, og en ny kommission er nedsat for at sage efter yderligere dokumentation. * Interviews - men få - gennemfart med personer, som tidligere har afvist interviews. * Dekret imod masseadelzggelsesvåben netop udstedt. Bemzrkninger, som kan ses som en kritik af USA: * At UNMOVIC ikke har fået adgang ti1 alle e fterretningsoplysninger. * At efterretningstjenesters iagttagelser af formodede omrokeringer af masse0delzggelsesvåben lige så vel kan vedrare konventionelle våben. * At UNMOVIC ikke vil udelukke, at et af de af Powells fremlagte indicier (oprydning på et ammunitionsdepot far inspektioner) er udtryk for rutineaktiviteter * At UNMOVIC overvejer forslag indeholdt i det franske non-paper, Det umiddelbare indtryk, man fik, når man lyttede til Blix' indl~g, var således, at det denne gang - i modsztning t11 indlzgget den 27. januar - ville tjene som en statte til den fransk-tyske linje frem for den britisk-amerikans ke. Blix' indlzg er dog ved en n~rlzsning mere balanceret. Der er stadig hovedsagelig tale om samarbejde om proceduren. Vzrdien af de seneste dokumenter er endnu ikke bevist; det er endnu ikke bevist, at flere personer vil lade sig interviewe; det er endnu ikke bevist, at kommissionerne vil fare ti1 noget. Man kan således i de fleste af Blix' positive udsagn fornemme et "aber dabei". Den ovenfor citerede konklusion indikerer ligeledes, at Irak endnu ikke har samarbejdet "ajeblikkeligt, aktivt og betingelsesl0st". Talen indeholder også nye kritikpunkter mod Irak. Det gzlder iszr deres missilsystem. I sin briefing til Sikkerhedsrådet den 27. januar oplyste Blix, at Iraks udvikling af de ballistiske missiler Al-Samud II og, Al Fatah meget vel kunne vzre et oplagt eksempel ("represents prima facie cases") på brud på Rådets resolutioner, der forbyder Irak at udvikle ballistiske missiler med en rzkkevidde på over 150 km. UNMOVIC's eksperter havde siden gennemfart en analyse af rzkkevidden på Iraks missilsystemer, der viste, at Al-Samud II missilets rzkkevidde oversteg den tilladte max-grznse. Det var således i strid med resolution 687 og 715. Det samme gjaldt de 380 ulovligt importerede SA-2 motorer til brug i al Samud II-missilet. Al Fatah missilsystemet krzvede yderligere analyse. Derudover gentog Blix kritikken af, at Irak havde genopbygget stabehaller til produktionen af missilsystemet Badr Mohammed ElBaradeis przsentation Formanden for det Internationale Atomenergiagentur (IAEA) ElBaradei gentog sin vurdering fra briefingen den 27. januar 2003 om, at Irak havde samarbejdet med hensyn til at give inspektarerne adgang til dokumenter og faciliteter. Derudover var der sket en rzkke substantielle fremskidt i samarbejdet med de irakiske myndigheder, bl.a. som falge af madet i Bagdad. De irakiske myndigheder havde leveret yderligere dokumentation mht. forlydender om ulovlig import af beriget uran, fremskaffelsen af aluminiumsrar og magneter samt anvendelsen af det hajeksplosive sprzngstof HMX. Oplysningerne havde dog ikke vzret d~kkende på alle områder, og IAEA ville derfor forsztte sin undersagelse af bl.a. den irakiske anvendelse af "dual-use" aluminiumsrar, magneter og kulstoffibre. Fundet af mere end siders fortroligt materiale vedr. anvendelse af laserteknologi til berigelse af uran i et privat hjem var blevet udlagt som et bevidst irakisk forsag pi at skjule informationer fra

4 l inspektarerne. Efter en grundig analyse havde IAEA7s eksperter imidlertid konkluderet, at der sandsynligvis var tale om forskerens private noter og forskningsresultater. ElBaradei understregede dog, at irakerne burde have medtaget forskerens informationer i deres rapport, men indholdet af disse dokumenter zndrede ikke ved IAEA7s hdtidige konklusioner vedrarende Iraks anvendelse af laserteknologi. Inspektarerne havde siden sidste briefing haft mulighed for at afholde fire interviews med irakiske videnskabsfolk uden tilstedevzrelsen af irakiske bisiddere - videnskabsfolkene havde dog insisteret på båndoptagelse af interviewene. ElBaradei betegnede ligeledes en udvidet irakisk liste over 380 hajtstående forskere som et vzsentligt fremskridt, om end der manglede en lignende liste med forskere på lavere niveauer. I den nzrmeste fremtid ville IAEA age antallet af inspektarer og stattepersonale med kompetence til at foretage bl.a. mobile toldkontroller, interviews med irakisk personel samt udvide inspektarernes mulighed for at overvåpng af inspicerede lokaliteter, bl.a. ved hjzlp af rekognosceringsfly og droner. Konklusionen på ElBaradeis tale var, at Iraks levering af yderligere dokumentation på flere udestående spargsmål og vedtagelsen af ny lovgivning hilstes velkommen, men at yderligere aktivt irakisk samarbejde ville lette processen og age tempoet. Inspektionerne af det irakiske atomprogram ville dog også kunne gennemfares uden aktivt samarbejde. 3. Den åbne debat Den syriske udenrigsminister Farouk Al-Shara indledte debatten med at glzde sig over alle de fremskridt, som Blix og ElBaradei netop havde redegjort for. Han fremhzvede dekretet mod masseadelzggelsesvåben. Denne udvikling understattede behovet for fortsatte inspektioner. Herudover anfartes velkendte kritik mod Israel. Den franske udenrigsminister Villepin afgav et formfuldendt indlzg med klar referencer ti1 den seneste uges angreb på Frankrig i' amerikansk presse. Han understregede behovet for, at Sikkerhedsrådet agerede sammen i denne sag. Man var enige om to hovedformål: 1) at der skulle ske en afvzbning af Irak; og 2) at der med vedtagelsen af resolution 1441 kom statte til Frankrigs to trins tilgang: farst sage nedrustning gennem inspektioner, og skulle dette mislykkes, skulle alle muligheder vurderes inklusiv magtanvendelse. Det rejste spargsmålet: Kunne man med god samvittighed på nuvzrende tidspunkt hzvde, at inspektionerne ingen vegne farte? Frankrigs svar herpå var, at inspektionerne skulle fares til ende, og anvendelse af magt skulle af hensyn til befolkningen og den regionale og internationale stabilitet altid vzre en sidste udvej Blix' og ElBaradeis rapportering havde netop vist, at inspektionerne farte resultater med sig. Det gjaldt inden for alle tre områder af masse0delzggelsesvåben, anfarte Villepin, idet han frernhzvede en rzkke af de resultater, som chefsinspekt~rerne havde nzvnt. For så vidt angik det franske "non-paper" understregede Villepin, at der var tale om forslag, der lå inden for resolution der var altså ikke behov for en ny resolution ti1 at gennemfare dem. Der var tale om praktiske foranstaltninger, som kunne gennemfares hurtigt, og som havde til hensigt at forbedre effektiviteten af inspektionerne. Men naturligvis var der en grznse for, hvor lznge inspektionerne kunne fortsztte. Han ville derfor foreslå, at Blix og ElBaradei rapporterede regelmzssigt ti1 Sikkerhedsrådet og foreslog konkret et nyt m0de pi ministerniveau den 14. marts 2003 (fik ikke statte 4

5 c under lukkede konsultationer, jf. mismail 159 af d.d.) For at imadegå den amerikanskelbritiske principielle kritik af inspektionsinstrumentets effektivitet ved manglende irakisk samarbejde pegede han på de langsigtede konsekvenser for Irak og det internationale samfund af en krig. Det var for tidligt at gribe ti1 magtanvendelse. Sikkerhedsrådets legitimitet beroede på enighed. Samtidig bidrog man ti1 ustabilitet i regionen. Frankrig delte bekymringen for og viljen til at bekzmpe terrorisme, men franske efterretningsoplysninger kunne ikke statte Powells antagelser om en forbindelse mellem Irak og Al Qaida. På den anden side ville en diskutabel militzr intervention fremme holdninger, der kunne fare til aget terrorisme. Villepin sluttede af med at fremhzve, at Frankrig som et "gammelt" europzisk land kendte ti1 falgerne af krig. Man var bevidst om sin gzld ti1 bl.a. amerikanske frihedskzmpere. Frankrig anskede at agere sammen med alle medlemmer af det internationale samfund for at skabe en bedre verden. Talen affadte klapsalver på tilharerpladserne, hvilket fik kolleger i korridorerne til at bemzrke, at talen ikke var rettet mod Sikkerhedsrådets medlemmer, men mod offentligheden. Den chilenske udenrigsminister Maria Soledad Alvear understregede, at Sikkerhedsrådet opnåede sin legitimitet ved at handle i fzllesskab. Hun beklagede derfor den seneste tids tendens til splittelse. Debatten skulle tilbage til Sikkerhedsrådet. Man måtte arbejde sammen for at finde en fredelig lasning. Presset på Irak måtte opretholdes. Iraks afvzrge- og forhalingsteknik var uacceptabel skulle implementeres fuldt ud. Inspektionerne skulle fortszette og Chile studerede det franske forslag ti1 at forbedre inspektionerne., Kinas udenrigsminister Tang Jiaxuan fremhzvede behovet for fortsat aget irakisk samarbejde med UNMOVIC og IAEA. Inspektionerne fungerede, og nu skulle inspektarerne have mere tid til at lase opgaverne. Sikkerhedsrådet måtte samtidig styrke statten til inspektarerne, herunder i form af den nidvendige ekspertise/udstyr, hvilket Kina var rede til at bidrage med. ' Udenrigsminister Straw bemzrkede, at Rådet i 1991 gav Irak 90 dage til at afruste, men til dato havde Irak kun lajet og bedraget. Efter UNSCOM var blevet smidt ud af Irak, havde landet endda veret i "open defiance of the Council's authority". Straw stillede en rzkke spargsmål ti1 Blix og ElBaradei, herunder bl.a. vedrarende graden af irakisk overvågning af inspektionerne,og om man havde modtaget dokumentation for påstået irakisk destruktion af mzngder af miltbrand og kemiske våben. Straw spurgte - med reference ti1 indlzgget den 27. januar - om Blix nu fandt, at Irak var oprigagt indstillet på at afruste. UI< håbede fortsat på en fredelig lasning, men det var nu alene op til Irak at sikre dette. Bestr~belserne på en fredelig lasning ville alene bzre frugt, hvis dette blev bakket op af en reel trussel om magtanvendelse. Hvis Rådet veg tilbage herfra, ville målet om en total afrustning af Irak blive endnu svzrere at nå. Det var ikke kun et spargsmål om Irak, men om hvordan Rådet skulle håndtere lignende situationer andre steder på kloden. Den amerikanske udenrigsminister Powell valgte at tale uden manuskript. Han tog indledningsvis tråden op fra den franske udenrigsminister ved at anfare, at selv om USA var et relativt nyt land, var det samtidig det xldste demokrati blandt de femten medlemmer. Han udtrykte glzede over de fremskridt, Blix havde rapporteret, men konstaterede, at det - med henvisning til Blix' tale den 27. januar - alene var fremskridt på procedure ikke på substans. I mere end 11 ir havde Sikkerhedsrådet sagt, at Saddam Hussein skulle samarbejde aktivt. Skulle man så blive

6 t begejstret for, at Saddam Hussein netop i dag havde udstedt et dekret imod masseadelzggelsesvåben? Eller at irakerne nu ville reducere antallet af bisidderelledsagere ("minders") fra fem til en pr. inspektar? Eller at irakerne nu var villige til at hare på sydafrikanernes erfaring med frivillig nedrustning - det var ikke hjernekirurgi, der var tale om! Alle vidste, hvad der skulle til. Aktiv, ubetinget samarbejde. Resolution 1441 handlede om nedrustning - ikke om inspektioner. Det drejede sig om "material breach". Sikkerhedsrådet havde endnu ikke fået en fuld erklzring. Irak samarbejdede ikke seriast - de pravede fortsat at snyde. USA ville fremlzgge flere beviser for Iraks relationer til terrornetv~rk. De fremskridt, der var kommet med hensyn ti1 proceduren, var et resultat af, at Sikkerhedsrådet havde optrådt resolut. Presset på Irak, herunder trusselen om magtanvendelse, måtte fastholdes. Magtanvendelse skulle altid vzre en sidste udvej - men en udvej. I Procedurefremskridtene zndrede ikke ved det faktum, at Irak ikke havde levet op til forpligtelserne i resolution Flere inspektioner og en lzngere inspektionsperiode ville ikke fjerne det centrale problem, som Sikkerhedsrådet stod overfor: At Irak handlede i strid med resolution Irak måtte ikke endnu engang få lov ti1 at slippe ("slide awayy') - dertil var det for farligt for verdenssamfundet. Masseadelzggelsesvåbnene i de forkerte hznder ville kunne drzbe tusinder af mennesker. Sikkerhedsrådet måtte derfor i en nzr fremtid - uanset af det var ubehageligt - tage stilling til, om tiden ikke var kommet ti1 at vurdere de seriase konsekvenser, som var tiltznkt i resolution Ruslands udenrigsminister Ivanov understregede, at ministerdeltagelsen på ny understregede Sikkerhedsrådets rolle som rette forum for en lasning af verdens problemer. Ivanov fandt, at Irak på det seneste havde bevzget sig i den riguge retning. Der var nu tale om starre samarbejdsvilje og fremhzvede tilladelse til brug af overvåpngsfly, fzrre irakere der ledsagede inspektarerne samt etableringen af de to kommissioner. Han opfordrede Irak til yderligere samarbejde. Rusland stattede, at UNMOVIC og IAEA fik mere tid til at l0se opgaverne, og inspektarerne skdle have al mulig statte hertil. Samtidtg måtte inspektionerne effektiviseres. Rusland udelukkede i sidste ende ikke brug af magt, som dog måtte vzre den absolut sidste lasning, når alle fredelige muligheder fra udtamt. Verdenssamfundet var dog endnu ikke nået hertil. Han opfordrede alle lande til at samarbejde (ikke at konkurrere) om en lasning på Irak-krisen. Mexicanske udenrigsminister Debrez samt Guineas, Pakistans, Cameroons, Angolas og Bulgariens faste reprzsentanter stattede i varierende grad, at inspekt~rerne fik mere tid til at lases opgaverne. Samtidig nrevnte flere dog, at tiden var ved at 10be ud og opfordrede kraftigt den irakiske regering til yderligere at samarbejde Udenrigsminister Fischer takkede Blix og ElBaradei for briefingerne om "the substantial progress of their work". Han fremhzvede den seneste tids agede irakiske samarbejde, hvilket måtte betegnes som en succes for inspektarerne. Han fandt, at inspektarernes tilstedevzrelse havde vzret med ti1 substantielt at mindske "the danger emanating from Iraq". Der var ingen grund til at stoppe inspektionerne (når de nu var succesfulde). Tvzrtimod skulle inspektarerne have mere tid til en Blix EIBaradei Powell doc doc doc succesfuld afslutn af arbejdet. Dette mål kunne nås ved en yderligere fokusering på "CO-operation, inspection and verification". Irak måtte samarbejde betingelsesl0st og aktivt, inspektionsregimet måtte gares mere effektivt, og en langsigtet rn~nitorerin~smekanisme måtte etableres med henblik på at sikre, at Irak ikke på ny oprustede. Fischer udtrykte uforbeholden statte til det franske forslag om at gare inspektionsregimet mere effektivt. ~ischer fandt, at en militar aktion mod Irak ville have katastrofale konsekvenser for stabiliteten i

7 regionen. Fra den irakiske faste reprzsentants indlzeg skal alene fremhzeves, at han rejste spargsmålstegn ved eksperternes konklusion om missilprogrammet. Indlzg af Blix, Elbaradei og Powell er vedhzftet. Det franske indlzg kan ses på falgende website: france/. P.M.V./E.B/ Henrik B. Hahn og Vibeke Rovsing Jargensen FN-Missionen New York MIS1 61

8 t Disarming Iraq AS DEL1 D BRIEFING OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL Executive Chairman of UNMOVIC, Dr. Hans Blix 14 February Introduction Mr. President, Since I reported to the Security Council on 27 January, UNMOVIC has had two further weeks of operational and analytical work in New York and active inspections in Iraq. This brings the total period of inspections so far to 11 weeks. Since then, we have also listened on 5 February to the presentation to the Council by the US Secretary of State and the discussion that followed. Lastly, Dr. EIBaradei and I have held another round of talks in Baghdad with our counterparts and with Vice President Ramadan on 8 and 9 February. Work in Iraq Let me begin today's briefing with a short account of the work being performed by,unmovic in Iraq. We have continued to build up our capabilities. The regional office in Mosul is now fully operational at its temporary headquarters. Plans for a regional office at Basra are being developed. Our Hercules L-1 00 aircraft continues to operate routine flights between Baghdad and Larnaca. The eight helicopters are fully operational. With the resolution of the problems raised by Iraq for the transportation of minders into the no-fly zones, our mobility in these zones has improved. We expect to increase utilization of the helicopters. The number of Iraqi minders during inspections had often reached a ratio as high as five per inspector. During the talks in January in Baghdad, the Iraqi side agreed to keep the ratio to about one to one. The situation has improved. Since we arrived in Iraq, we have conducted more than 400 inspections covering more than 300 sites. All inspections were performed without notice, and access was almost always provided promptly. In no case have we seen convincing evidence that the Iraqi side knew in advance that the inspectors were coming. The inspections have taken place throughout Iraq at industrial sites, ammunition depots, research centres, universities, presidential sites, mobile laboratories, private houses, missile production facilities, military camps and agricultural sites. At all sites which had been inspected before 1998, re-baselining activities were perlormed. This included the identification of the function and contents of each building, new or old, at a site. It also included verification of previously tagged equipment, application of seals and tags, taking samples and discussions with the site personnel regarding past and present activities. At certain sites, groundpenetrating radar was used to look for underground structures or buried equipment. Through the inspections conducted so far, we have obtained a good knowledge of the industrial and scientific landscape of Iraq, as well as of its missile capability but, as before, we do not know every cave and corner. Inspections are effectively helping to bridge the gap in knowledge that arose due to the absence of inspections between December 1998 and November 2002.

9 More than 200 chemical and more than 100 biological samples have been collected at different sites. Threequarters of these have been screened using our own analytical laboratory capabilities at the Baghdad Centre (BOMVIC). The results to date have been consistent with Iraq's declarations. We have now commenced the process of destroying approximately 50 litres of mustard gas declared by Iraq that was being kept under UNMOVIC seal at the Muthanna site. One-third of the quantity has already been destroyed. The laboratory quantity of thiodiglycol, a mustard gas precursor, which we found at another site, has also been destroyed. The total number of staff in Iraq now exceeds 250 from 60 countries. This includes about 100 UNMOVIC l inspectors, 15 IAEA inspectors, 50 aircrew, and 65 support staff. Mr. President, In my 27 January update to the Council, I said that it seemed from our experience that Iraq had decided in principle to provide cooperation on process, most importantly prompt access to all sites and assistance to UNMOVIC in the establishment of the necessary infrastructure. This impression remains, and we note that access to sites has so far been without problems, including those that had never been declared or inspected, as well as to Presidential sites and private residences. In my last updating, I also said that a decision to cooperate on substance was indispensable in order to bring, through inspection, the disarmament task to completion and to set the monitoring system on a firm course. Such cooperation, as I have noted, requires more than the opening of doors. In the words of resolution 1441 (2002) - it requires immediate, unconditional and active efforts by Iraq to resolve existing questions of disarmament - either by presenting remaining proscribed items and programmes for elimination or by presenting convincing evidence that they have been eliminated. In the current situation, one would expect Iraq to be eager to comply. While we were in Baghdad, we met a delegation from the Government of South Africa. It was there to explain how South Africa gained the confidence of the world in its dismantling of the nuclear weapons programme, 'by a wholehearted cooperation over two years with IAEA inspectors. I have just learned that Iraq has accepted an offer by South Africa to send a group of experts for further talks. How much, if any, is left of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and related proscribed items and programmes? So far, UNMOVIC has not found any such weapons, only a small number of empty chemical munitions, which should have been declared and destroyed. Another matter - and one of great significance - is that many proscribed weapons and items are not accounted for. To take an example, a document, which Iraq provided, suggested to us that some 1,000 tonnes of chemical agent were "unaccounted for". One must not jump to the conclusion that they exist. However, that possibility is also not excluded. If they exist, they should be presented for destruction. If they do not exist, credible evidence to that effect should be presented. We are fully aware that many governmental intelligence organizations are convinced and assert that proscribed weapons, items and programmes continue to exist. The US Secretary of State presented material in support of this conclusion. Governments have many sources of information that are not available to inspectors. Inspectors, for their part, must base their reports only on evidence, which they can, themselves, examine and present publicly. Without evidence, confidence cannot arise. Mr. President, In my earlier briefings, I have noted that significant outstanding issues of substance were listed in two Security Council documents from early 1999 (S and S ) and should be well known to Iraq. I referred, as examples, to the issues of anthrax, the nerve agent VX and long-range missiles, and said that such issues "deserve to be taken seriously by Iraq rather than being brushed aside...". The declaration submitted by Iraq on 7 December last year, despite its large volume, missed the opportunity to provide the fresh material and evidence needed to respond to the open questions. This is perhaps the most important problem we are facing. Although I can understand that it may not be easy for Iraq in all cases to provide the evidence needed, it is not the task of the inspectors to find it. Iraq itself must squarely tackle this task and avoid belittling the questions.

10 Work in New York In my January update to the Council, I referred to the Al Samoud 2 and the Al Fatah missiles, reconstituted casting chambers, construction of a missile engine test stand and the import of rocket engines, which were all declared to UNMOVIC by Iraq. I noted that the Al Samoud 2 and the Al Fatah could very well represent prima facie cases of proscribed missile systems, as they had been tested to ranges exceeding the 150- kilometre limit set by the Security Council. I also noted that Iraq had been requested to cease flight tests of these missiles until UNMOVIC completed a technical review. Earlier this week, UNMOVIC missile experts met for two days with experts from a number of Member States to discuss these items. The experts concluded unanimously that, based on the data provided by Iraq, the two declared variants of the Al Samoud 2 missile were capable of exceeding 150 kilometres in range. This missile system is therefore proscribed for Iraq pursuant to resolution 687 (1991) and the monitoring plan adopted by resolution 71 5 (1 991). As for the Al Fatah, the experts found that clarification of the missile data supplied by Iraq was required before the capability of the missile system could be fully assessed. With respect to the casting chambers, I note the following: UNSCOM ordered and supervised the destruction of the casting chambers, which had been intended for use in the production of the proscribed Badr-2000 missile system. Iraq has declared that it has reconstituted these chambers. The experts have confirmed that the reconstituted casting chambers could still be used to produce motors for missiles capable of ranges significantly greater than 150 kilometres. Accordingly, these chambers remain proscribed. l The experts also studied the data on the missile engine test stand that is nearing completion and have assessed it to be capable of testing missile engines with thrusts greater than that of the SA-2 engine. So far, the test stand has not been gssociated with a proscribed activity. On the matter of the 380 A-2 missile engines imported outside of the exportlimport mechanism and in contravention of paragraph 24 of resolution 687 (1 991), UNMOVIC inspectors were informed by Iraq during an official briefing that these engines were intended for use in the Al Samoud 2 missile system, which has now been assessed to be proscribed. Any such engines configured for use in this missile system would also be proscribed. I intend to communicate these findings to the Government of Iraq. Meeting in Baghdad At the meeting in Baghdad on 8 and 9 February, the Iraqi side addressed some of the important outstanding disarmament issues and gave us a number of papers, e.g. regarding anthrax and growth material, the nerve agent VX and missile production. Experts who were present from our side studied the papers during the evening of 8 February and met with Iraqi experts in the morning of 9 February for further clarifications. Although no new evidence was provided in the papers and no open issues were closed through them or the expert discussions, the presentation of the papers could be indicative of a more active attitude focusing on important open issues. The Iraqi side suggested that the problem of verifying the quantities of anthrax and two VX-precursors, which had been declared unilaterally destroyed, might be tackled through certain technical and analytical methods. Although our experts are still assessing the suggestions, they are not very hopeful that it could prove possible to assess the quantities of material poured into the ground years ago. Documentary evidence and testimony by staff that dealt with the items still appears to be needed. Not least against this background, a letter of 12 February from Iraq's National Monitoring Directorate may be of relevance. It presents a list of 83 names of participants "in the unilateral destruction in the chemical field, which took place in the summer of 1991 ". As the absence of adequate evidence of that destruction has been and remains an important reason why quantities of chemicals have been deemed "unaccounted for", the

11 l presentation of a list of persons who can be interviewed about the actions appears useful and pertains to cooperation on substance. I trust that the Iraqi side will put together a similar list of names of persons who participated in the unilateral destruction of other proscribed items, notably in the biological field. The Iraqi side also informed us that the commission, which had been appointed in the wake of our finding 12 empty chemical weapons warheads, had had its mandate expanded to look for any still existing proscribed items. This was welcomed. A second commission, we learnt, has now been appointed with the task of searching all over Iraq for more documents relevant to the elimination of proscribed items and programmes. It is headed by the former Minister of Oil, General Amer Rashid, and is to have very extensive powers of search in industry, administration and even private houses. The two commissions could be useful tools to come up with proscribed items to be destroyed and with new documentary evidence. They evidently need to work fast and effectively to convince us, and the world, that it is a serious effort. The matter of private interviews was discussed at length during our meeting in Baghdad. The Iraqi side confirmed the commitment, which it made to us on 20 January, to encourage persons asked to accept such interviews, whether in or out of Iraq. So far, we have only had interviews in Baghdad. A number of persons have declined to be interviewed, unless they were allowed to have an official present or were allowed to tape the interview. Three persons that had previously refused interviews on UNMOVIC1s terms, subsequently accepted such interviews just prior to our talks in Baghdad on 8 and 9 February. These interviews proved informative. No further interviews have since been accepted on our terms. I hope this will change. We feel that interviews conducted without any third party present and without tape recording would provide the greatest credibility. At the recent meeting in Baghdad, as on several earlier occasions, my colleague Dr. EIBaradei and I have urged the Iraqi side to enact legislation implementing thq UN prohibitions regarding weapons of mass destruction. This morning we had a message that a Presidential decree has now been issued containing prohibitions with regard to importation and production of biological, chemical and nuclear weapons. We have not yet had time to study the details of the text of the decree. l Intelligence Mr. President, I should like to make some comments on the role of intelligence in connection with inspections in Iraq. A credible inspection regime requires that Iraq provide ful1 cooperation on "process" - granting immediate access everywhere to inspectors - and on substance, providing ful1 declarations supported by relevant information and material and evidence. However, with the closed society in Iraq of today and the history of inspections there, other sources of information, such as defectors and government intelligence agencies are required to aid the inspection process. I remember myself how, in 1991, several inspections in Iraq, which were based on information received from a Government, helped to disclose important parts of the nuclear weapons programme. It was realized that an international organization authorized to perform inspections anywhere on the ground could make good use of information obtained from governments with eyes in the sky, ears in the ether, access to defectors, and both eyes and ears on the market for weapons-related material. It was understood that the information residing in the intelligence services of governments could come to very active use in the international effort to prevent proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. This remains true and we have by now a good deal of experience in the matter. International organizations need to analyse such information critically and especially benefit when it comes from more than one source. The intelligence agencies, for their part, must protect their sources and methods. Those who provide such information must know that it will be kept in strict confidence and be

12 known to very few people. UNMOVIC has achieved good working relations with intelligence agencies and the amount of information provided has been gradually increasing. However, we must recognize that there are limitations and that misinterpretations can occur. Intelligence information has been useful for UNMOVIC. In one case, it led us to a private home where documents mainly relating to laser enrichment of uranium were found. In other cases; intelligence has led to sites where no proscribed items were found. Even in such cases, however, inspection of these sites were useful in proving the absence of such items and in some cases the presence of other items - conventional munitions. It showed that conventional arms are being moved around the country and that movements are not necessarily related to weapons of mass destruction. f The presentation of intelligence information by the US Secretary of State suggested that Iraq had prepared for inspections by cleaning up sites and removing evidence of proscribed weapons programmes. 1 would like to comment only on one case, which we are familiar with, namely, the trucks identified by analysts as being for chemical decontamination at a munitions depot. This was a declared site, and it was certainly one of the sites Iraq would have expected us to inspect. We have noted that the two satellite images of the site were taken several weeks apart. The reported movement of munitions at the site could just as easily have been a routine activity as a movement of proscribed munitions in anticipation of imminent inspection. Our reservation on this point does not detract from our appreciation of the briefing. Plans for the immediate future Yesterday, UNMOVIC informed the Iraqi authorities of its intention to start using the U-2 surveillance aircraft early next week under arrangements similar to those UNSCOM had followed. We are also in the process of working out modalities for the use of the French Mirage aircraft starting late next week and for the drones supplied by the German Government. The offer from Russia of an Antonov aircraft, with night vision capabilities, is a welcome one and is next on our agenda for further improving UNMOVIC's and IAEA1s technical capabilities. The,se developments are in line with suggestions made in a non-paper recently circulated by France, suggesting a further strengthening of the inspection capabilities. l It is our intention to examine the possibilities for surveying ground movements, notably by trucks. In the face of persistent intelligence reports for instance about mobile biological weapons production units, such measures could well increase the effectiveness of inspections. UNMOVIC is still expanding its capabilities, both in terms of numbers of staff and technical resources. On my way to the recent Baghdad meeting, I stopped in Vienna to meet 60 experts, who had just completed our general training course for inspectors. They came from 22 countries, including Arab countries. Time lines Mr. President, UNMOVIC is not infrequently asked how much more time it needs to complete its task in Iraq. The answer depends upon which task one has in mind - the elimination of weapons of mass destruction and related items and programmes, which were prohibited in the disarmament task - or the monitoring that no new proscribed activities occur. The latter task, though not often focused upon, is highly significant - and not controversial. It will require monitoring, which is "ongoing", that is, open-ended until the Council decides otherwise. By contrast, the task of "disarmament" foreseen in resolution 687 (1 991 ) and the progress on "key remaining disarmament tasks" foreseen in resolution 1284 (1 999) as well as the "disarmament obligations", which Iraq was given a "final opportunity to comply with" under resolution 1441 (2002), were always required to be fulfilled in a shorter time span. Regrettably, the high degree of cooperation required of Iraq for disarmament through inspection was not forthcoming in Despite the elimination, under UNSCOM and IAEA supervision, of large amounts of weapons, weapons-related items and installations over the years, the task remained incomplete, when inspectors were withdrawn almost 8 years later at the end of 1998.

13 If Iraq had provided the necessary cooperation in 1991, the phase of disarmament - under resolution 687 (1991) - could have been short and a decade of sanctions could have been avoided. Today, three months after the adoption of resolution 1441 (2002), the period of disarmament through inspection could still be short, if "immediate, active and unconditional cooperation" with UNMOVIC and the IAEA were to be forthcoming.

14 New York, 14 February 2003 Statement to the United Nations Security Council The Status of Nuclear Inspections in Iraq: 14 February 2003 Update by IAEA Director General Dr. Mohamed EIBaradei My report to the Council today is an update on the status of the IAEA's nuclear verification activities in Iraq pursuant to Security Council resolution 1441 and other relevant resolutions. Less than three weeks have passed since my last update to the Council, on 27 January - a relatively short period in the overall inspection process. However, I believe it is important for the Council to remain actively engaged and fully informed at this crucial time. I urr rent Inspection Activities: Still Building Capacity The focus of the IAEA's inspections has now moved from the "reconnaissance phase" into the "investigative phase". The "reconnaissance phase" was aimed at re-establishing rapidly our knowledge base of Iraq's nuclear capabilities, ensuring that nuclear activities at known key facilities had not been resumed, verifying the location of nuclear material and relevant non-nuclear material and equipment, and identifying the current workplaces of former key Iraqi personnel. The focus of the "investigative phase" is achieving an understanding of Iraq's activities over the last four years, in particular in areas identified by States as being of concern and those identified by the IAEA on the basis of its own analysis. Inspections Since our 27 January report, the IAEA has conducted an additional 38 inspections at 19 locations, for a total of 177 inspections at 125 locations. Iraq has continued to provide immediate access to all locations. In the course of the inspections, we have identified certain facilities at which we will be re-establishing containment and surveillance systems in order to monitor, on a continuous basis, activities associated with critical dual-use equipment. At this time, we are using recurrent inspections to ensure that this equipment is not being used for prohibited purposes. I Technical Methods l As I mentioned in my last report to the Council, we have a numper of wide-area and location-specific measures for detecting indications of undeclared past or ongoing nuclear activities in Iraq, including environmental sampling and radiation detection surveys. In this regard, we have been collecting a broad variety of samples, including water, sediment and vegetation, at inspected facilities and at other locations across Iraq, and analysing them for signatures of nuclear activities. We have also resumed air sampling at key locations in Iraq. Three of the four air samplers that were removed in December 2002 for refurbishing have been returned to Iraq. One of these has been installed at a fixed location, and the other two are being operated from mobile platforms. We are intending to increase their number to make optimum use of this technique. We are also continuing to expand the use of hand-held and car-borne gamma surveys in Iraq. The gamma survey vehicle has been used en route to inspection sites and within sites, as well as in urban and industrial areas. We will start helicopter-borne gamma surveys as soon as the relevant equipment receives its final certification for use on the helicopter model provided to us for use in Iraq. Conduct of Interviews The IAEA has continued to interview key Iraqi personnel. We have recently been able to conduct four interviews in private - that is, without the presence of an Iraqi observer. The interviewees, however, have tape recorded their interviews. In addition, discussions have continued to be conducted with Iraqi technicians and officials as part of inspection activities and technical meetings. I should note that, during our recent meeting in Baghdad, Iraq reconfirmed its commitment to encourage its citizens to accept interviews in private, both inside and outside of Iraq. In response to a request by the IAEA, Iraq has expanded the list of relevant Iraqi personnel to over 300, along with their current work locations. The list includes the higher-level key scientists known to the IAEA in the nuclear and nuclear related areas. We will continue, however, to ask for information about Iraqi personnel of lesser rank whose work may be of significance to our mandate.

15 Specific Issues I would like now to provide an update on a number of specific issues that we are currently pursuing. I should mention that, shortly before our recent meeting in Baghdad, and based on out discussions with the Iraqi counterpart, Iraq provided documentation related to these issues: the reported attempt to import uranium, the attempted procurement of aluminium tubes, the procurement of magnets and magnet production capabilities, the use of HMX, and those questions and concerns that were outstanding in will touch briefly on each of these issues. Uranium Acquisition Iraq continues to state that it has made no attempt to import uranium since the 1980s. The IAEA recently received some additional information relevant to this issue, which will be further pursued, hopefully with the assistance of the African country reported to have been involved. Uranium Enrichmen t The IAEA is continuing to follow up on acknowledged efforts by Iraq to import high strength aluminium tubes. As you will know, Iraq has declared these efforts to have been in connection with a programme to reverse engineer conventional rockets. The IAEA has verified that Iraq had indeed been manufacturing such rockets. However, we are still exploring whether the tubes were intended rather for the manufacture of centrifuges for uranium enrichment. In connection with this investigation, Iraq has been asked to expiain the reasons for the tight tolerance specifications that it had requested from various suppliers. Iraq has provided documentation related to the project for reverse engineering and has committed itself to providing samples of tubes received from prospective suppliers. We will continue to investigate the matter further. In response to IAEA inquiries about Iraq's attempts to procure a facility for the manufacture of magnets, and the possible link with the resumption of a nuclear programme, Iraq recently provided additional documentation, which we are presently examining. In the course of an inspection conducted in connection with the aluminium tube investigation, IAEA inspectors found a number of documents relevant to transactions aimed at the procurement of carbon fibre, a dual-use material used by Iraq in its past clandestine uraniu,m enrichment programme for the manufacture of gas centrifuge rotors. Our review of these documents suggests that the carbon fibre sought by Iraq was not intended for enrichment purposes, as the specifications of the material appear not to be consistent with those needed f ~ manufacturing r rotor tubes. In addition, we have carried out follow-up inspections, during which we have been able to observe the use of such carbon fibre in non-nuclear-related applications and to take samples. The IAEA will nevertheless continue to pursue this matter. Use of HMX The IAEA has continued to investigate the relocation and consumption of the high explosive HMX. As I reported earlier, Iraq has declared that 32 tonnes of the HMX previously under IAEA seal had been transferred for use in the production of industrial explosives, primarily to cement plants as a booster for explosives used in quarrying. Iraq has provided us with additional information, including documentation on the movement and use of this material, and inspections have been conducted at locations where the material is said to have been used. However, given the nature of the use of high explosives, it may well be that the IAEA will be unable to reach a final conclusion on the end use of this material. While we have no indication that this material was used for any application other than that declared by Iraq, we have no technical method of verifying, quantitatively, the declared use of the material in explosions. We will continue to follow this issue through a review of civilian mining practices in Iraq and through interviews of key Iraqi personnel involved in former relevant research and development activities. Laser-related Documents The IAEA has completed a more detailed review of the 2000 pages of documents found on 16 January at the private residence of an Iraqi scientist. The documents relate predominantly to lasers, including the use of laser technology to enrich uranium. They consist of technical reports; minutes of meetings (including those of the Standing Committee for Laser Applications); personal notes; copies of publications and student research project theses; and a number of administrative documents, some of which were marked as classified. While the documents have provided some additional details about Iraq's laser enrichment development efforts, they refer to activities or sites already known to the IAEA and appear to be the personal files of the scientist in whose home they were found. Nothing contained in the documents alters the conclusions previously drawn by the IAEA concerning the extent of Iraq's laser enrichment programme. We nevertheless continue to emphasize to Iraq that it should search for and provide all documents, personal or otherwise, that might be relevant to our mandate.

16 Remaining Questions and Concerns Last week, Iraq also provided the IAEA with documentation related to questions and concerns that, since 1998, have been in need of further clarification, particularly as regards weapon and centrifuge design. However, no new information was contained in this documentation. It is to be hoped that the new Iraqi commissions established by Iraq to look for any additional documents and hardware relevant to its programmes for weapons of mass destruction will be able to uncover documents and other evidence that could assist in clarifying these remaining questions and concerns as well as other areas of current concern. Finally, I was informed this morning by the Director General of Iraq's National Monitoring Directorate that national legislation prohibiting proscribed activities was adopted today. The resolution of this long-standing legal matter was a step in the right direction for Iraq to demonstrate its commitment to fulfilling its obligations under the Security Council's resolutions. Looking Ahead In the coming weeks, the IAEA will continue to expand its inspection capabilities in a number of ways, including its already extensive use of unarinounced inspections at all relevant sites in Iraq. To strengthen and accelerate our ability to investigate matters of concern, and to reinstate and reinforce our ongoing monitoring and verification system that came to a halt in 1998, we intend to increase the number of inspectors and support staff. We will also be adding more analysts and translators to support analysis of documents and other inspection findings. We intend to augment the number of customs and procurement experts for the monitoring of imports by Iraq. We will also intensify and expand the range of technical meetings and private interviews with Iraqi personnel, in accordance with our preferred modalities and locations, both inside and outside Iraq., In addition, we intend to expand our capabilities for near-real-time monitoring of dual-use equipment and related activities, and implement several additional components of wide area environmental monitoring aimed at identifying fingerprints left by nuclear material and nuclear related activities. l We hope to continue to receive from States actionable information relevant to our mandate. Now that Iraq has accepted the use of all of the platforms for aerial surveillance proposed by supporting States to UNMOVIC and the IAEA, including U2s1 Mirage IVs, Antonovs and drones, we plan to make use of them to support our inspection activities, in particular with a view to monitoring mb~ements in and around sites to be inspected. The Government of Iraq reiterated last week its commitment to comply with its Security Council obligations and to provide ful1 and active CO-operation with the inspecting organizations. Subject to Iraq making good on this commitment, the above measures will contribute to the effectiveness of the inspection process. Conclusion As I have reported on numerous occasions, the IAEA concluded, by December 1998, that it had neutralized Iraq's past nuclear programme and that, therefore, there were no unresolved disarmament issues left at that time. Hence, our focus since the resumption of our inspections in Iraq, two and a half months ago, has been verifying whether Iraq revived its nuclear programme in the intervening years. We have to date found no evidence of ongoing prohibited nuclear or nuclear related activities in Iraq. However, as I have just indicated, a number of issues are still under investigation and we are not yet in a position to reach a conclusion about them, although we are moving forward with regard to some of them. To that end, we intend to make ful1 use of the authority granted to us under all relevant Security Council resolutions to build as much capacity into the inspection process as necessary. In that context, I would underline the importance of information that States may be able to provide to help us in assessing the accuracy and completeness of the information provided by Iraq. The IAEA's experience in nuclear verification shows that it is possible, particularly with an intrusive verification system, to assess the presence or absence of a nuclear weapons programme in a State even without the ful1 CO-operation of the inspected state. However, prompt, ful1 and active CO-operation by Iraq, as required under resolution 1441, will speed up the process. More importantly, it will enable us to reach the high degree of assurance required by the Security Council. It is my hope that the commitments made recently in Baghdad will continue to translate into concrete and sustained action.

17 r February Remarks to the United Nations Security Council Secretary Colin L. Powell New York, New York 14, 2003 SECRETARY POWELL: Thank you very much, Mr. President. Mr. President, Mr. Secretary General, Distinguished Members of the Council, it's a great pleasure to be here with you again to consider this very important matter. And I'm very pleased to be here as the Secretary of State of a relatively new country on the face of the earth, but I think I can take some credit sitting here as being a representative of the oldest democracy that is assembled here around this table. I'm proud of that. A democracy that believes in peace, a nation that has tried in the course of its history to show how people can live in peace with one another, but a democracy that has not been afraid to meet its responsibilities on the world stage when it has been challenged; more, importantly, when others in the world have been challenged or when the international order has been challenged or when the international institutions of which we are a part have been challenged. That's why we have joined and been active members of institutions such as the United Nations and a number of other institutions that have come together for the purpose of peace and for the purpose of mutual security and for the purpose of letting other nations which pursue a path of destruction, which pursue paths of developing weapons of mass destruction which threaten their neighbors, to let them know that we will stand tall, we will stand together, to meet these kinds of challenges. i C I want to express my appreciation to Dr. Blix and Dr. EIBaradei for their presentation this morning. They took up a difficult challenge when they went back into Iraq last fall in pursuit of disarmament, as iequired by Resolution And I listened very attentively to all they said this morning and I am pleased that there have been improvements with respect to process. I'm pleased that there have been improvements with respect to not having five minders with each inspector, down to something less than five minders with each inspector. But l think they still are being minded, they are still being watched, they are still being bugged. They still do not have the freedom of access around Iraq that they need to do their job well. I am pleased that a few people have come forward for interviews, but not all the people who should be coming forward for interviews, and with the 'freedom to interview them in a manner that their safety can be protected and the safety of their families can be protected, as required by UN Resolution I am glad that access has been relatively good. But that is all process; it is not substance. I am pleased to hear that decrees have now been issued that should have been issued years and years ago. But does anybody really think a decree from Saddam Hussein, directed to whom, is going to fundamentally change the situation? And it comes out on a morning when we are moving forward down the path laid out by Resolution These are all process issues. These are all tricks that are being played on us. And to say that new commissions are being formed that will go find materials that they claim are not there in the first place, can anybody honestly believe that either one of these two new commissions will actively seek out information that they have been actively trying to deny to the world community, to the inspectors, for the last eleven plus years? I commend the inspectors. I thank them for what they are doing. But at the same time, I have to keep coming back to the point that the inspectors have repeatedly made, and they've made it again here this morning. They've been making it for the last eleven plus years: What we need is not more inspections, what we need is not more immediate access; what we need is immediate, active, unconditional, fuil cooperation on the part of Iraq. What we need is for Iraq to disarm. Resolution 1441 was not about inspections. Let me say that again. Resolution 1441 was not about inspections. Resolution 1441 was about the disarmament of Iraq. We worked on that resolution for seven weeks, from the time of President Bush's powerful speech here at the United Nations General Assembly on the 12th of September until the resolution was passed on the 8th of November. We had intense discussions. All of you are familiar with it. You participated in these discussions and it was about disarmament. And the resolution began with the clear statement that Iraq was in material breach of its obligations for the past eleven years and remains to that day, the day the resolution was passed, in material breach. And the resolution said Iraq must now come into compliance. It must disarm. The resolution went on to say that we want to see a declaration from Iraq within 30 days of all of its activities. Put it all on the table. Let's see what you have been doing. Give us a declaration that we can believe in that is full, complete and accurate. That's what we said to Iraq on the 8th of November. And some 29 days later we got 12,000 pages. Nobody in this Council can say that that was a full, complete or accurate declaration. And now it is several months after that declaration was submitted, and I have heard nothing to suggest that they have filled in the gaps that were in that declaration or they have added new evidence that should give us any comfort that we have a full, complete and accurate declaration.

18 You will recall, we put that declaration requirement into the resolution as an early test of Iraq's seriousness. Are they serious? Are they going to disarm? Are they going to comply? Are they going to cooperate? And the answer with that declaration was, "No. We're going to see what we can get away with. We can see how much we can slip under your nose," and everybody will clap and say, "lsn't that wonderful? They provided a declaration that was of not any particular use." We then had some level of acceptance of the fact inspectors would be going back in. Recall that Iraq tried to use this gambit right after the President's speech in September to try to keep Resolution 1441 from ever coming down the pipe. Suddenly, on the following Monday after the President's speech, "Oh, we'll let inspectors back in." Why? Because when the President spoke and when Iraq aaw that that the international community was now coming together with seriousness and with determination, it knew it better do something. It didn't do it out of the goodness of its heart or it suddenly discovered that it's been in violation for all those years. They did it because of pressure. They did it because this Council stood firm. They did it because the international community said, "Enough." We will not tolerate Iraq continuing to have weapons of mass destruction to be used against its own people, to be used against its neighbors." Or worse, if we find a post-9/11 nexus between Iraq and terrorist organizations that are looking for just such weapons -- and I would submit and will provide more evidence that such connections are now emerging and we can establish that they exist -- we cannot wait for one of these terrible weapons to show up in one of our cities and wonder where it came from after it's been detonated by al-qaida or somebody else. This is the time to go after this source of this kind of weaponry. And that's what 1441 was all about. And to this day, we have not seen the level of cooperation that was expected, anticipated, hoped for -- I hoped for. No one worked harder than the United States, and I submit to you no one worked harder, if I might humbly say, I did to try to put forward a resolution that would show the determination of the international community to the leadership in Iraq so that they would now meet their obligations and come clean and comply. And they did not. Notwithstanding all of the discussion we've heard so far this morning about giving inspections more time, let's have more airplanes flying over, let's have more inspectors added to the inspection process, Dr. Blix noted earlier this week that it's not more inspectors that are needed; what's needed is what both Dr. Blix and Dr. EIBaradei have said what's been needed since 1991 : immediate, active, unconditional compliance and cooperation. I'm pleased that Iraq is now discussing this matter with South Africa, but it isn't brain surgery. South Africa knows how to do it. Anybody knows how to do it. If we were getting the kind of cooperation that we expected when 1441 was passed and we hoped for when 1441 was passed, these documents would be flooding out of homes, flooding out of factories. There would be no question about access. There would be no question about interviews. If Iraq was serious in this matter, interviewees would be standing up outside of UNMOVIC and IAEA offices in Baghdad and elsewhere, waiting to be interviewed, because they are determined to prove to the world, to give the world all the evidence needed that these weapons of mass destruction are gone. But the questions, notwithstanding all of the lovely rhetoric, the questions remain, and some of my colleagues have talked about it. We haven't accounted for the anthrax. We haven't accounted for the botulinum, the VX, bulk biological agents, growth media, 30,000 chemical and biological munitions. These are not trivial matters one can just ignore and walk away from and say, well, maybe the inspectors wili find them, maybe they won't. We have not had a complete, accurate declaration. We have seen the reconstitution of casting chambers for missiles. Why? Because they are still trying to develop these weapons. We have not seen the kind of cooperation that was anticipated, expected and demanded of this body. And we must continue to demand it. We must continue to put pressure on Iraq, put force upon Iraq, to make sure that the threat of force is not removed, because 1441 was all about compliance, not inspections. The inspections were put in as a way, of course, to assist Iraq in coming forward and complying, in order to verify, in order to monitor, as the Chief Inspector noted. But we've still got an incomplete answer from Iraq. We are facing a difficult situation. More inspectors? Sorry, not the answer. What we need is immediate cooperation. Time? How much time does it take to say, "I understand the will of the international community and I and my regime are laying it all out for you"? And not playing guess, not forming commissions, not issuing decrees, not getting laws that should have been passed years ago, suddenly passed on the day when we are meeting. These are not responsible actions on the part of Iraq. These are continued efforts to deceive, to deny, to divert, to throw us off the trail, to throw us off the path. The resolution anticipated this kind of response from Iraq, and that's why in all of our discussions about that resolution we said they're in material breach; if they come into new material breach with a false declaration or not a willingness to cooperate and comply, as OP 4 says, then the matter has to be referred to the Council for serious consequences. I submit to you that notwithstanding the improvements in process that we have noted, and I welcome and I thank the inspectors for their hard work, these improvements in process do not move us away from the central problem that we continue to have; and more inspections and a longer inspection period will not move us away from the central issue, the central problem we are facing; and that central problem is that Iraq has failed to comply with The threat of force must remain. Force should always be a last resort. I have preached this for most of my professional life, as a soldier and as a diplomat, but it must be a resort. We cannot allow this process to be endlessly strung out as Iraq is trying to do right now-- string it out long enough and the world will start looking in other directions, the Security Council will move on, we'll get away with it again.

19 ' My friends, they cannot be allowed to get away with it again. We now are in a situation where Iraq's continued noncompliance and failure to cooperate, it seems to me, in the clearest terms, requires this Council to begin to think through the consequences of walking away from this problem with a reality that we have to face this problem; and that, in the very near future, we will have to consider whether or not we've reached that point where this Council, as distasteful as it may be, as reluctant as we may be, as many as -- there are so many of you who would rather not have to face this issue, but it's an issue that must be faced. And that is whether or not it is time tb consider serious consequences of the kind intended by The reason we must not look away from it is because these are terrible weapons: We are talking about weapons that will kil1 not a few people, not a hundred people, not a thousand people, but that could kil1 tens of thousands of people if these weapons got into the wrong hands. And the security of the region, the hopes for the peoplk of Iraq, themselves, and our security rest upon us meeting our responsibilities. And, if it comes to it, invoking the serious consequences called for in is about disarmament and compliance and not merely a process of inspections that goes on forever without ever resolving,the basic problem. Thank you. [Endl 4 l Released on February 14, 2003

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