Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 26. juni 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Der er stort set ingen betydende nøgletal på grogrammet i dag, men selvom der var, ville fokus alligevel have været på Grækenland. EUtopmødet slutter i dag, men Grækenland er ikke officielt på dagsordenen. Det er Grækenland til gengæld på finans- og økonomiministrenes møde i morgen lørdag, det femte møde i eurogruppen på lidt over en uge. Det er fortsat et åbent spørgsmål, og man kan nå frem til en aftale. ECB offentliggør pengemængdevækst og kredittal for euroområdet for maj i dag. Årsvækstraten i den samlede kreditgivning til husholdninger og ikke-finansielle virksomheder blev positiv i marts for første gang i tre år, men den faldt tilbage mod 0 i april (se figur). Vi venter dog, at årsvækstraten tiltager i juni, hvilket vil være endnu en indikation af, at lånelysten er ved at vende tilbage bl.a. understøttet af ECB s pengepolitiske lempelsestiltag. Den endelige opgørelse af den amerikanske Michigan forbrugertillidsopgørelse ventes ikke at afvige fra den foreløbige opgørelse. Den viste en stigning til 94,6 i juni fra 90,7 i maj. Morgenmeldingen holder sommerferie, og udkommer igen 10. august. Euroområdets kreditvækst kun netop over 0 i maj Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De finansielle markeder så ud til at træde vande i går mens man ventede på nyt om, hvorvidt Grækenland er reddet eller ude. De fleste akiemarkeder i Europa og USA havde små fald i går, og det gælder også de asiatiske her til morgen. Dog ligger de fastlands-kinesiske børser til meget store fald, idet der spekuleres i at aktiekursfesten her nu er slut. Statsrenterne i Tyskland/Danmark og USA er steget marginalt og EUR er svækket marginalt over for USD. Grækenland: Den endelige deadline for afslutningen af forhandlingerne mellem Grækenland og dets kreditorer er blevet udskudt igen, nu til i morgen lørdag, hvor EU s finans- og økonomiministre skal mødes for femte gang på lidt over en uge. EU s regeringsledere diskuterede tilsyneladende ikke detaljerne i forhandlingerne på deres møde i går, men både Merkel og Hollande slog fast, at det er yderst vigtigt, at en aftale indgås på finansministermødet i morgen. Tidligere i går advarede Bundesbanks Weidmann mod at ECB og eurolandenes centralbanker, som det sker i dag, i praksis giver mellemfinansiering til den græske stat via ELA nødlikviditet til bankerne. Tysklands finansminister Schaeuble udtalte, at Athen om noget har bevæget sig baglæns i forhandlingerne. USA: Husholdningernes forbrug steg i maj ganske pænt med 0,9% m/m. Det var bedre end konsensusforventningen og den største månedlige stigning siden Inflationsmålet baseret på forbruget (PCE-core) holdt sig uændret på 1,2% y/y som forventet. Det er det mål, Federal Reserve officielt følger. Dermed er der endnu ikke tegn på, at inflationsudviklingen er vendt oven på det sidste års tids faldende tendens. Modsat er kerneinflationen baseret på forbrugerpriserne steget over de seneste fem måneder. De ugentlige tal for nytilmeldte ledige på overførselsindkomst kom som ventet ud tæt på det i historisk perspektiv meget lave niveau på personer. Dermed indikerer tallet fortsat hastig bedring på arbejdsmarkedet. Markit s PMI-serviceindeks faldt skuffende i juni, og fulgte dermed efter PMI-fremstillingsindekset, som også skuffede forleden. Det tegner ikke godt forud for wqdet mere anerkendte ISM-indeks, som vi modtager juni-tal for i næste uge. Japan: Inflationen faldt fra 0,6% y/y i april til 0,5% i maj, Renset for ferske fødevarer faldt inflationen fra 0,3% y/y til 0,1%. Tyskland: GfK s forbrugertillid faldt til 10,1 fra 10,2 i forrige måned. Der var ventet uændret tillid. Der er kun tale om et marginalt fald, men det giver ikke desto mindre anledning til lidt bekymring, da det var det første fald siden oktober sidste år. Tysk forbrugertillid faldt for første gang længe Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 26. juni 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,26% / indeks 999,19) endte i positivt territorium på en dag, hvor de europæiske aktiemarkeder sidder i åndeløs spænding og afventer, hvad der kommer til at ske i forhold til Grækenlands problemer. I toppen af indekset endte blandt andet Danske Bank (+1,26% / kurs 201,50) på en dag, hvor bankerne generelt havde god medvind. A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+0,73% / kurs ,00) fulgte godt med efter et internationalt finanshus var ude med en positiv rapport, hvor der anbefales køb af aktien. Vestas (+0,54% / kurs 335,80) endte også højere efter et internationalt finanshus var ude og hæve anbefalingen på aktien. Dagens kursmæssige vinder blev Tryg (+1,81% / kurs 140,70) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. I den anden ende af indekset endte blandt GN Store Nord (-1,16% / kurs 144,30) på trods af, at der tidligere på ugen blev offentliggjort stærke salgstal fra USA, hvilket kan give mulighed for en opjustering af forventningerne til helåret. Dagens kursmæssige taber blev TDC (-1,66% / kurs 50,30) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Renter De tyske og danske statsrenter steg en anelse i går mens flere af de sydeuropæiske eurolandes statsrenter faldt. Det må tilskrives et fortsat håb om at Grækenland finder en aftale med dets kreditorer. EU s regeringsledere diskuterede tilsyneladende ikke detaljerne i forhandlingerne på deres møde i går, men både Merkel og Hollande slog fast, at det er yderst vigtigt, at en aftale indgås på finansministermødet i morgen lørdag, det femte møde på lidt over en uge. Tysklands finansminister Schaeuble udtalte, at Athen om noget har bevæget sig baglæns i forhandlingerne. De amerikanske statsrenter steg også lidt i går, drevet af udviklingen i tyske statsrenter og understøttet af markant og højere end ventet fremgang i det personlige forbrug. Det overskyggede, at Markits service-pmi skuffede i juni.. Valuta EUR handlede nogenlunde konstant over for USD i går, men er svækket en anelse her til morgen. EUR lader således ikke til at lade sig påvirke af at forhandlingerne mellem Grækenland og dets kreditorer er blevet udskudt til i morgen lørdag, hvor der afholdes endnu et møde i gruppen af finans- og økonomiministre, det femte møde på lidt over en uge. JPY styrkedes lidt over for USD i går og også her til morgen. De japanske inflationstal fortsætter ellers med at ligge til den lave side. GBP blev styrket lidt over for både EUR og USD uden betydende nøgletal fra Storbritannien. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 26. juni 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 24/06/15 Flügger Årsregnskab 25/06/15 Egetæpper Årsregnskab Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 22/06/15 08:30 EMU ECB's Coeure Speaks in Paris 22/06/15 09:00 Danmark Consumer Confidence Indicator Jun /06/15 09:00 Danmark Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) May %/ -0.2%/0.5% -1.2%/-3.8% 22/06/15 14:30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index May /06/15 16:00 EMU Consumer Confidence Jun A /06/15 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales May 5.28M M 5.35M 23/06/15 03:35 Japan Markit Japan PMI Mfg Jun P /06/15 03:45 Kina Markit China PMI Mfg Jun P /06/15 08:45 Frankrig Manufacturing Confidence Jun /06/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jun P /06/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Jun P /06/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Jun P /06/15 14:30 USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) May -0.5% % -1.8% 23/06/15 14:30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air May 0.6% % 0.4% 23/06/15 15:00 USA FHFA House Price Index MoM Apr 0.5% % 0.3% 23/06/15 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Jun P /06/15 16:00 USA New Home Sales May 520K K 546K 23/06/15 16:00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Jun /06/15 10:00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Jun /06/15 14:30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 1Q T -0.2% % -0.2% 24/06/15 15:00 Belgien Business Confidence Jun /06/15 18:00 Frankrig Jobseekers Net Change May /06/15 08:00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Jul /06/15 09:00 EMU ECB's Nouy Speaks at European Parliament 25/06/15 12:00 UK CBI Reported Sales Jun /06/15 14:30 USA Personal Spending (MoM) May 0.6% % 0.9% 25/06/15 14:30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) May 0.1%/1.2% %/1.2% 0.1%/1.2% 25/06/15 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 20. Jun 273K K 271K 25/06/15 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Jun P /06/15 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 21. Jun /06/15 16:00 EMU EU Leaders Start Two-Day Summit in Brussels 26/06/15 01:30 Japan Jobless Rate May 3.3% % 3.3% 26/06/15 01:30 Japan Overall Household Spending YoY May 3.6% % 4.8% 26/06/15 01:30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY May 0.4% % 0.4% 26/06/15 08:00 Tyskland Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) May 0.2%/-0.5% %/-0.6% 26/06/15 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Jun /06/15 09:30 Sverige Household Lending YoY May % 26/06/15 10:00 EMU EU Leaders Conclude Summit in Brussels 26/06/15 10:00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY May 5.4% % 26/06/15 16:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Jun F Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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5 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Johan Sahlström Chief Credit Strategist Ronny Berg Senior Credit Strategist Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Macro Research Jan Häggström Chief Economist Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Tuulia Asplund Finland Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research Knut Anton Mork Senior Economist, Norway and China Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Per Wall Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC