Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 30. oktober 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens vigtigste nøgletal bliver nok det første estimat for BNP-væksten i 3. kvartal for USA. Der ventes en lidt lavere vækst på omkring 3,0% k/k (annualiseret) ned fra 4,6% i 2. kvartal. Væksten ses især trukket ned af lidt lavere vækst i privatforbrug samt investeringer. Det er allerede blevet indikeret af udviklingen i de månedlige opgørelser af personligt forbrug samt udviklingen i kerneordreindgangen. Sidstnævnte fik vi september-tal for i forgårs som skuffede ved at falde. ISM-indeksene ligger fortsat på et niveau, der antyder højere vækst end de ventede 3,0% k/k, men ISM s ordreindeks i fremstillingssektoren, der ofte er en bedre vækstindikator, har isoleret peget på en vækstmoderation i den ventede størrelsesorden (se figur). Vi har nedrevideret vores skøn for den økonomiske tillidsindikator ESI for euroområdet til et lille fald fra septembers 99,9. Det lavere skøn skyldes det overraskende fald tidligere på ugen i både den tyske Ifo og den italienske erhvervstillidsindikator. PMI composite for euroområdet samlet set gik ellers overraskende lidt frem i flashestimatet for oktober offentliggjort i sidste uge. Hvis ESI forbliver nogenlunde konstant og kun falder lidt, bør det bringe en vis lettelse i ECB s bekymringer om det svækkede vækstmomentum i euroområdet de seneste måneder. Fra Tyskland kommer der ledighedstal og inflation for oktober. Sidstnævnte kan give en antydning af udfaldet af euroområdets inflation, som kommer i morgen.. Der forventes en svag stigning til 0,9% y/y. Schweiz kommer med sin KOF tillidsindikator i dag. Tal for ledigheden i Danmark i september offentliggøres også i dag. Vi har fortsat mest fokus på den såkaldte AKU-ledighed, der i begyndelsen af 2014 viste positive tendenser, men som er de seneste tre måneder i træk. Vi venter en ny stigning i AKU-ledigheden fra 6,7% til 6,8% i september. USA: ISM s ordreindeks peger Q3-vækst ned Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne faldt en smule i går i USA, mens Europa målt ved Stoxx600 steg lidt. Renterne steg og USD styrkedes efter rentemødet hos den amerikanske centralbank Fed i går aftes. USA:, Fed stoppede som ventet QE3-opkøbene. Det skete med henvisning til solid jobskabelse og lavere ledighed. Rentemeddelelsen var om noget lidt mere høgeagtig end på forrige møde. Således havde FOMC fjernet sætningen om at der fortsat er signifikant underudnyttelse af arbejdskraftsressourcerne og erstattet den med en sætning om at underudnyttelsen af arbejdskraftsressourcerne er faldet gradvist. Siden forrige møde har et par FOMC-medlemer i udtalelser peget på risikoen for amerikansk økonomi fra afmatningen i euroområdet og Kina, men der var ingen henvisning i rentemeddelelsen til de forværrede vækstudsigter i resten af verdensøkonomien. Fischer og Plossser stemte på forrige møde mod beslutningen, da de ønskede en strammere pengepolitik. På gårsdagens møde stemte de ikke imod. Det afspejler måske, at hele FOMC har rykket sig i deres retning. Fed og FOMC holdt dog fast i formuleringen om, at der skal gå a considerable time før renten hæves. Kocherlakota stemte i mod denne gang, da han ønskede, at udsigterne for styringsrenten knyttes op på 1 til 2-års inflationsforventningerne. Euroområdet: ECB s bankudlånsundersøgelse viste, at der så småt er ved at komme gang i efterspørgslen efter lån i euroområdet, samt at bankerne (ifølge dem selv) har lempet lidt på lånevilkårene. Norge: Ledigheden (AKU) steg overraskende til hele 3,7% i august (gennemsnit af juli til september). Der var ventet uændret ledighed. USA: Fed stopper QE pga. stærkt arbejdsmarked Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 30. oktober 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+1,07% / indeks 790,10) endte gårsdagens handel i positivt territorium. I toppen indekset endte blandt andet DSV (+3,62% / kurs 171,70) der offentliggjorde regnskab for 3. kvartal som overgik markedets forventninger. Desuden annoncerede DSV et aktietilbagekøbsprogram på 300 mio. kr. Sydbank (+1,82% / kurs 184,30) havde også en god dag efter en lang række finanshuse var ude og hæve deres kursmål på aktien, som følge af bankens stærke 3. kvartalsregnskab som blev offentliggjort den foregående dag. TDC (+0,78% / kurs 45,25) havde ligeledes en god dag efter det engelske finanshus New Street Research løftede deres anbefaling på aktien til Køb fra Neutral. I bunden af indekset endte blandt andet Jyske Bank (- 0,41% / kurs 313,30) som var aktuel med bankens 3. kvartalsregnskab. Overskuddet var højere end ventet af markedet, men skyldes dog primært kursgevinster og en engangseffekt fra en lavere skattesats. Uden for det ledende C20 CAP indeks var SAS (- 1,10% / kurs 8,95) som nu snart får øget konkurrence fra lavprisselskabet Ryan Air der annoncerede, at de fra marts måned af vil åbne 13 ruter fra Københavns Lufthavn, herunder blandt andet til London som er en af SAS mest profitable ruter. Renter Den tyske 10-årige statsrente kravlede opad over dagen i går frem mod aftenens møde i den amerikanske centralbank, Fed. Det hang måske også sammen med offentliggørelsen af ECB s bankudlånsundersøgelse, som viste, at der så småt er ved at komme gang i efterspørgslen efter lån i euroområdet, samt at bankerne (ifølge dem selv) har lempet lidt på lånevilkårene. De amerikanske renter steg også frem mod Fed-mødet, og især de kortere renter steg også umiddelbart efter mødet. Fed stoppede som ventet QE3-opkøbene. Det skete med henvisning til solid jobskabelse og lavere ledighed. Rentemeddelelsen var om noget lidt mere høgeagtig end på forrige møde. Således havde FOMC fjernet sætningen om at der fortsat er signifikant underudnyttelse af arbejdskraftsressourcerne og erstattet den med en sætning om at underudnyttelsen af arbejdskraftsressourcerne er faldet gradvist. Fed og FOMC holdt dog fast i formuleringen om, at der skal gå a considerable time før renten hæves. Valuta USD styrkedes noget over for EUR ovenpå mødet i den amerikanske centralbank, Fed, hvor man som ventet annoncerede et stop for værdipapiropkøbene under QE3-programmet. Fed havde i rentemeddelelsen fjernet henvisningen til, at der fortsat er signifikant underudnyttelse af arbejdskraftsressourcerne og erstattet den med en sætning om at underudnyttelsen af arbejdskraftsressourcerne er faldet gradvist. JPY er svækket over for USD, igen nok på grund af de lidt mere høgeagtige signaler fra Fed. GBP svækkedes tilsvarende over for USD, men svækkedes også lidt over for EUR. BRL har svinget markant den seneste tid i takt med udsving i meningsmålinger og valgresultater med tendens til mere svækkelse end styrkelse. I går efter markedsluk hævede centralbanken overraskende renten med 25 basispunkter til 11,25%, hvilket nok giver BRL-styrkelse og brasilianske aktiestigninger når markederne åbner senere i dag. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 30. oktober 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Exiqon 3. kvartal Sydbank 3. kvartal DSV 3. kvartal Jyske Bank 3. kvartal Spar Nord Bank 3. kvartal Coloplast Årsregnskab Danske Bank 3. kvartal Novo Nordisk 3. kvartal TDC 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Oct :00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Sep 2.2% % 2.5% :00 UK CBI Reported Sales Oct :45 USA Markit US Composite PMI Oct P :00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep 1.0% %/-4.1% 0.3%/1.0% :30 USA Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Oct :50 Japan Retail Sales MoM Sep 0.9%/0.8% %/1.2% 2.3%/2.7% :30 Kina Industrial Profits YoY Sep % 0.4% :00 Tyskland Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Sep -0.1%/-1.9% %/-1.9% 0.3%/-1.6% :30 Sverige Riksbank Interest Rate Oct % 0.050% 0.250% 0.0% :30 USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) Sep 0.5% 0.5% -18.3%(r) -1.3% :30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (MoM) Sep 0.7% %(r) -1.7% :00 USA S&P/CS 20 City (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.18%/5.70% %/6.75% -0.15%/5.57% :00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Oct (r) :00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Oct :50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Sep P 2.2%/-0.1% %/-3.3% 2.7%/0.6% :45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Oct :00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Oct :00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Aug 3.4% 3.3% 3.4% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications Oct % -6.6% :00 USA Fed QE3 Pace Oct $0B $0B $15B $ :00 USA FOMC Rate Decision Oct % 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% :00 UK Nationwide House (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.3%/8.5% %/9.4% :00 Danmark Unemployment Rate SA Sep 3.9% 4.0% 3.9% :00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Sep 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% :00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Oct :55 Tyskland Unemployment Rate Oct 6.7% % :00 EMU Economic Confidence Oct :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims Oct K :30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q A 3.0% 3.5% 4.6% :00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Oct P -0.2%/0.9% %/0.8% :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Oct :30 Japan Jobless Rate Sep 3.6% % :30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Sep 3.0% % Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement :05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Oct :00 Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep %/0.1% :45 Frankrig Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) Sep %/1.4% :00 EMU Unemployment Rate Sep 11.5% % :00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Oct 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% :00 EMU CPI Core YoY Oct A 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% :30 USA Personal Income (MoM) Sep 0.3% % :30 USA Personal Spending (MoM) Sep 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% :30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.1%/ 0.1%/ 0.1%/1.5% :45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager Oct Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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