High Yield Highlights - uge 44. Q3'14 regnskab fra Bombardier viser fremgang i både omsætning og indtjening. 1 of 11

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1 High Yield Highlights - uge 44 Bombardier - Køb Kerling - Køb Danske Bank - Køb Numericable - Køb Q3'14 regnskab fra Bombardier viser fremgang i både omsætning og indtjening Vi fastholder Køb anbefalingen på Bombardiers EUR 6,125 %@21 udstedelse efter et solidt regnskab for Q3'14. Regnskabet viste en fremgang i omsætningen til USD 4,9 mia. mod USD 4,1 mia. i Q3'13, hvilket var en smule bedre end forventningerne i markedet. Fremgangen var størst i Aerospace med 28,7 %, mens Transport viste en omsætningsfremgang på 13,4 % i Q3'14. For årets første tre kvartaler viste begge segmenter en omsætningsfremgang på godt 1 %. EBIT før nedskrivninger var med USD 291 mio. også bedre end de ventede USD 267 mio. Klik her for at komme til analysen Lidt sløjt Q3'14 regnskab fra Kerling Vi fastholder Køb idet vi venter førtidsindfrielse 1. februar 215. Vi ser en tilbagegang i LTM EBITDA på 6 % hvilket giver en stigning i den finansielle gearing. Kvartalsregnskabet viser en faldende EBITDA på EUR 56 mio. mod EUR 67 mio. (år/år). Faldet skyldes til dels at enheden Compounds er blevet solgt fra i november 213. Målt på 12 måneders løbende EBITDA er indtjeningen faldet med 6 % til EUR 156 mio. mod EUR 166 mio. i andet kvartal. Baseret på en førtidsindfrielse kan investorer opnå en effektiv rente på 5,5 % og et afkast i den korte periode på 1,4 %. Klik her for at komme til analysen Danske Bank opjusterer i Q3'14 regnskab Vi fastholder anbefalingen Køb på Danske Bank Tier 1 udstedelser. - Regnskabet bekræfter vores holdning til selskabet, der kreditmæssigt bevæger sig i den rigtige retning. De samlede indtægter viste et fald på 4 % (kv/kv) til DKK 1,93 mia., hvilket primært skyldes et fald i handelsindtægterne på 31 %. Dette var forventet idet salget af Nets blev booket der. Korrigeret for denne post svarer det til en fremgang på 5 % (kv/kv). - De nordiske banker, herunder Danske Bank, klarer bankernes stresstest uden problemer. Ikke overraskende er det primært sydeuropæiske banker, der ikke består testen. Klik her for at komme til analysen Numericables Q3'14 regnskab viser stærk operationel performance Vi fastholder Køb efter et regnskab, der viste en stigning i omsætnigen med 4 % (år/år) til EUR 332 mio. og i EBITDA med 4,7 % til EUR 156 mio. - Den stærke operationelle performance er drevet af vækst i alle kundesegmenterne, et fald i churn raten samt et rekordhøjt ARPU niveau. Derudover voksede kundebasen med 2,5 % (år/år). Den særdeles positive udvikling bekræfter selskabets stærke konkurrencemæssige position på markedet. - De franske konkurrencemyndigheder godkender som forventet Numericables køb af SFR mod en række betingelser. Klik her for at komme til analysen Research team: Jens Houe Thomsen Bo Andersen Rasmus Justesen Disclaimer & Disclosure: Please see the last page jht@jyskebank.dk boandersen@jyskebank.dk rasmus.justesen@jyskebank.dk 1 of 11

2 Spread Developments Change Change Spread/Rate 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month Ytd Spread/Rate 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month Ytd EUR High Yield non. Fin (HEAD) 423 bp. bp. 17 bp. 47 bp. 54 bp. US High Yield non. Fin (HNF) 447 bp. -3 bp. -9 bp. 1 bp. 36 bp. EUR High Yield (HE) 46 bp. -2 bp. 11 bp. 39 bp. 5 bp. US High Yield (HA) 435 bp. -3 bp. -1 bp. 1 bp. 35 bp. itraxx Xover (Generic) 365 bp. 14 bp. 17 bp. 9 bp. 77 bp. CDX High Yield 351 bp. 6 bp. -4 bp. -2 bp. 39 bp. EUR Invest. Grade non. Fin. (EN) 9 bp. -1 bp. -1 bp. -5 bp. -16 bp. US Invest. Grade non. Fin. (CFX) 129 bp. -1 bp. 6 bp. 16 bp. -1 bp. EUR Invest. Grade (ER) 95 bp. -2 bp. -3 bp. -7 bp. -21 bp. US Invest. Grade (CA) 127 bp. bp. 6 bp. 15 bp. bp. itraxx Europe Invest. Grade 68 bp. 1 bp. 5 bp. 1 bp. -3 bp. CDX Invest. Grade 66 bp. 1 bp. 1 bp. -1 bp. 2 bp. itraxx Sr Financial 7 bp. 2 bp. 7 bp. -6 bp. -16 bp. US 1Y 2.31% 4 bp. -8 bp. -19 bp. -68 bp. itraxx Sub Financial 163 bp. 13 bp. 73 bp. 56 bp. 35 bp. German 1Y.85%. -5 bp. -6 bp. -29 bp. -11 bp. bp 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 EUR HY vs. US HY Spread development Difference (rhs) EUR HY (HEAD) US HY (HNF) bp bp EUR IG vs. US IG Spread development Difference (rhs) EUR HG (EN) US HG (CFX) bp Source: Bloomberg & Merrill Lynch & Jyske Bank 2 of 11

3 High Yield Bond Outperformers and Underperformers - Spread to Worst 1 Week Outperformers 1 Month Outperformers Issue Rating Price STW Change Issue Rating Price STW Change INFOR US INC 1% 219 CCC NEW WORLD RESOURCES NV 7.875% 221 D 8. 13,542-28,88 CONVATEC HEALTHCARE 1.875% 218 B EDCON HOLDINGS PTY LTD % 219 CCC , BOARDRIDERS SA 8.875% 217 B ,23-81 VIRIDIAN GROUP FUNDCO II % 217 B HEIDELBERGER DRUCKMASCHI 9.25% 218 CCC HECKLER & KOCH GMBH 9.5% 218 CCC , TELENET FINANCE III LUX 6.625% 221 BB NARA CABLE FUNDING II LT 8.5% 22 BB GALAPAGOS HOLDING SA 7% 222 CCC NEW WORLD RESOURCES NV 7.875% 218 CCC , EMPARK FUNDING SA 6.75% 219 B INFOR US INC 1% 219 CCC TELENET FINANCE LUX 6.375% 22 BB Nyrstar Netherlands Hold 8.5% 219 B SPCM SA 5.5% 22 BB FINANCIERE GAILLON 8 SAS 7% 219 B GATEGROUP FINANCE LUX SA 6.75% 219 B LECTA SA 8.875% 219 B TEAMSYSTEM HLDG SPA 7.375% 22 B CAMPOFRIO FOOD SA 8.25% 216 BB STORA ENSO OYJ 5% 218 BB CEGEDIM SA 6.75% 22 B Week Underperformers 1 Month Underperformers Issue Rating Price STW Change Issue Rating Price STW Change GEO DEBT FINANCE SCA 7.5% 218 B , NORSKE SKOGINDUSTRIER 11.75% 216 CCC ,483 1,3 GEO TRAVEL FINANCE 1.375% 219 CCC1 6. 2, GEO TRAVEL FINANCE 1.375% 219 CCC1 6. 2, GAMENET SPA 7.25% 218 B , TAKKO LUX 2 SCA 9.875% 219 B3 7. 2, TAKKO LUX 2 SCA 9.875% 219 B3 7. 2, GEO DEBT FINANCE SCA 7.5% 218 B , NEW WORLD RESOURCES NV 7.875% 221 D 8. 13, ZIGGO BOND CO 8% 218 BB , SISAL GROUP SPA 7.25% 217 B GAMENET SPA 7.25% 218 B , NORSKE SKOGINDUSTRIER 11.75% 216 CCC , HEMA BONDCO II BV 8.5% 219 B , DEUTSCHE ANN FIN BV 4.625% 219 BB CONVATEC HEALTHCARE 1.875% 218 B SNAI SPA 12% 218 CCC , LEVI STRAUSS & CO 7.75% 218 BB AG SPRING FINANCE II LTD 9.5% 219 CCC , SNAI SPA 12% 218 CCC , SNAI SPA 7.625% 218 B SPIE BONDCO 3 SCA 11% 219 CCC CIRSA FUNDING LUXEMBOURG 8.75% 218 B MANUTENCOOP FACILITY 8.5% 22 B , Source: Merrill Lynch & Jyske Bank 3 of 11

4 High Yield Bond Outperformers and Underperformers - Price 1 Week Outperformers 1 Month Outperformers Issue Rating STW Price Change Issue Rating STW Price Change INFOR US INC 1% 219 CCC EDCON HOLDINGS PTY LTD % 219 CCC2 3, GALAPAGOS HOLDING SA 7% 222 CCC NEW WORLD RESOURCES NV 7.875% 221 D 13, EMPARK FUNDING SA 6.75% 219 B Nyrstar Netherlands Hold 8.5% 219 B BOARDRIDERS SA 8.875% 217 B3 1, FINANCIERE GAILLON 8 SAS 7% 219 B PIAGGIO & C SPA 4.625% 221 BB HECKLER & KOCH GMBH 9.5% 218 CCC2 1, HEIDELBERGER DRUCKMASCHI 9.25% 218 CCC NEW WORLD RESOURCES NV 7.875% 218 CCC3 3, BUT SAS 7.375% 219 B LECTA SA 8.875% 219 B STORA ENSO OYJ 5% 218 BB BOPARAN FINANCE PLC 4.375% 221 B VIVACOM 6.625% 218 B LABEYRIE FINE FOODS SAS 5.625% 221 B TELECOM ITALIA FIN SA 7.75% 233 BB BUT SAS 7.375% 219 B GATEGROUP FINANCE LUX SA 6.75% 219 B DARTY FINANCEMENT SAS 5.875% 221 BB FIAT FINANCE & TRADE 7.375% 218 B GALAPAGOS HOLDING SA 7% 222 CCC Week Underperformers 1 Month Underperformers Issue Rating STW Price Change Issue Rating STW Price Change GAMENET SPA 7.25% 218 B1 1, GAMENET SPA 7.25% 218 B1 1, GEO DEBT FINANCE SCA 7.5% 218 B3 1, HEMA BONDCO II BV 8.5% 219 B3 1, TAKKO LUX 2 SCA 9.875% 219 B3 2, GEO TRAVEL FINANCE 1.375% 219 CCC1 2, GEO TRAVEL FINANCE 1.375% 219 CCC1 2, GEO DEBT FINANCE SCA 7.5% 218 B3 1, SISAL GROUP SPA 7.25% 217 B TAKKO LUX 2 SCA 9.875% 219 B3 2, SNAI SPA 12% 218 CCC2 1, MANUTENCOOP FACILITY 8.5% 22 B2 1, SELECTA GROUP BV 6.5% 22 B SNAI SPA 12% 218 CCC2 1, LOXAM SAS 7% 222 B NORSKE SKOGINDUSTRIER 11.75% 216 CCC3 3, SNAI SPA 7.625% 218 B AG SPRING FINANCE II LTD 9.5% 219 CCC1 1, CGG SA 5.875% 22 B SISAL GROUP SPA 7.25% 217 B AG SPRING FINANCE II LTD 9.5% 219 CCC1 1, SNAI SPA 7.625% 218 B SAFARI HOLDING VERWALTUN 8.25% 221 B FRIGOGLASS FINANCE BV 8.25% 218 B Source: Merrill Lynch & Jyske Bank 4 of 11

5 Issuance - EUR Source: Merrill Lynch & Jyske Bank 5 of 11

6 European Issuance - EUR, USD & GBP Source: Merrill Lynch & Jyske Bank 6 of 11

7 Spread vs. GDP US GDP Growth & High Yield Spread bp. % -1 2,1-8 1, , High Yield Spread (HA) US GDP YoY (rhs, inverted) Bloomberg consensus EUR High Yield Spread vs. GDP Growth bp. % -6 2,1-4 1,6-2 1, High Yield Spread (HEAD) Euro GDP YoY (rhs, inverted) bp. 2, 1,5 GDP Growth & High Yield (since 25) y = 65.7e -.94x R² =.3256 bp. 2,5 2, High Yield vs. GDP Growth next Quarter (since 25) y = 633.4e -.18x R² = , 1,5 1, % 8 % 6 % 4 % 2 % % 2 % 4 % 6 % 8 % US GDP YoY Q3'14E GDP Growth Q2'14 GDP Growth 6 % 4 % 2 % % 2 % 4 % 6 % Euro GDP YoY Q3'14E GDP growth Q2'14 GDP Growth Source: Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch & Jyske Bank 7 of 11

8 Rating Drift Source: Moodys & Jyske Bank 8 of 11

9 Disclaimer & Disclosure Jyske Bank s corporate bond recommendations current breakdown Jyske Bank is supervised by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. The research report is based on information which Jyske Bank finds reliable, but Jyske Bank does not assume any responsibility for the correctness of the material nor any liability for transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the report. The estimates and recommendations of the research report may be changed without notice. The report is for the personal use of Jyske Bank's customers and may not be copied. This report is an investment research report. Conflicts of interest Jyske Bank has prepared procedures to prevent and preclude conflicts of interest thus ensuring that research reports are being prepared in an objective manner. These procedures have been incorporated in the business procedures covering the research activities of Jyske Markets, a business unit of Jyske Bank. Jyske Bank's corporate-bond analysts may not hold positions in the instruments for which they prepare research reports. If an analyst takes over for the responsible analyst in connection with illness, business travels, etc. this analyst cannot trade in the relevant corporate bond on the day of publication of the research report and the following day. Jyske Bank may, however, hold positions, have interests in or business relations with the companies that are analysed. The research report has not been presented to the company prior to its release. Analysts receive no payment from persons interested in individual research reports. Read more about Jyske bank's policy on conflicts of interest at Jyske Bank's corporate bond recommendations - current breakdown Breakdown of recomendations, corporate bonds (number) STRONG BUY BUY HOLD SELL 9 of 11

10 Financial models Jyske Bank models the expected development of the analysed company s income statement and balance sheet. A number of key figures for the company is calculated on the basis of these models, and the key figures are compared with those of comparable companies and the company s past performance. From this we infer the spread at which the bonds will trade for the period ahead. The recommendation and the price target are moreover adjusted for the expected news flow and the market sentiment based on knowledge of the industry and company-specific circumstances. Jyske Bank s recommendations take into account the expected development in the corporate-bond market, the various sectors and company-specific circumstances. Risk Investment in this corporate bond is associated with risk. The risk can be measured directly via the spread at which the bond trades relative to a risk free investment with the same maturity. The spread reflects the probability of default, the recovery rate, and the liquidity of the corporate bond. Movements in the credit market, the sector and/or news flows, etc. regarding the company may affect the price of the bond. See the front page of the research report for our view of the risk associated with the corporate bond. The risk on the corporate bond is stated as Very Low, Low, Medium, High or Very High and is relative to the high-yield market for corporate bonds. The risk factors stated and/or calculations of sensitivities in the research report are not to be considered all-encompassing. If the corporate bond is denominated in a currency other than the investor s base currency, the investor accepts an FX risk. Update of the research report The planned update of the report will be prepared immediately upon the release of the company s financial statements. In addition, there may be prepared research reports on special themes specifically for the company or research reports where the company is part of the special theme. These research reports are published on an ad-hoc basis. See the front page for the initial date of publication of the report. The prices stated are the latest prices quoted by Jyske Bank before the publication of the research report, unless otherwise stated. Recommendation concepts Our recommendations are based on market developments and an assessment of the expected return within the next twelve months. A BUY recommendation or a Strong BUY recommendation is based on expectations that investment in the bond will generate a return above that of the general corporate-bond market. On the other hand, a SELL recommendation implies that we expect investment in the bond to generate a return below that of the general corporate-bond market. Since our recommendations are relative and risk-adjusted, it is possible to compare our recommendations across sectors and risk categories. In addition, the potential is stated in absolute terms via our return target. 1 of 11

11 Contacts for Institutional Customers Ulrik Øllegaard Bøg Hansen Head of Corporate Bonds Sales, Vice President Nicolaj Brask Christiansen Senior Sales Manager, Corporate Bonds Sales René Søndergaard Vinther Sales Manager, Corporate Bonds Sales of 11