Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 27. august 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Det er en dag uden de helt store begivenheder på den internationale nøgletalsfront. Eneste nøgletal vi får fra USA er den ugentlige opgørelse over udviklingen i antallet af ansøgninger om realkreditlån. Efter en periode med stabiliseringstegn på aktivitetsfronten har denne timelige indikator peget på at boligmarkedet stadig udvikler sig noget haltende, med risiko for at udviklingen i salget af eksisterende boliger kan begynde at falde igen i de kommende måneder. Vi skulle således gerne se realkreditansøgningerne begynde at tage til igen snarligt. De stigende spekulationer om at Fed rykker nærmere med en stramning af pengepolitikken er dog ikke decideret befordrende for udviklingen på boligmarkedet, om end renterne stadig ikke har vist tegn på stigning. Fra euroområdet får vi tysk forbrugertillid, hvor det bliver interessant at se om uroen fra krisen i Ukraine/Rusland og signalerne om at det tyske opsving har mistet pusten sætter negative spor i optimismen i husholdningerne. Et stærkt arbejdsmarked og pæne reallønsstigninger har ellers drevet forbrugertilliden op på det stærkeste niveau siden 2006, hvilket har bidraget til forventninger om, at den indenlandske efterspørgsel vil holde hånden under økonomien i en situation hvor den eksporttunge industrisektor er kommet i modvind. Vi ser dog en vis risiko for, at forbrugerne vil begynde at miste lidt af optimismen, og dermed yderligere understrege, at tysk økonomi formentlig ikke er stærk nok til virke som motor for opsvinget i euroområdet. Vi venter et tilsvarende billede fra den italienske forbrugertillid. I kombination med at euroområdets næststørste økonomi står i stampe, hvilket ventes understreget i dag af en fortsat svag udvikling i den franske erhvervstillid i august, er det for indeværende svært at turde tro på, at væksten i euroområdet er på vej op på et niveau der kan gøre indhug i de fortsat høje offentlige gældsniveauer og den høje ledighed samt dæmme op for deflationstruslen. Sidstnævnte kan få lidt yderligere næring af en fortsat negativ udvikling i de tyske importpriser for juli. USA: Boligmarkedet halter stadig Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne i både Europa og USA havde pilen opad, hvor bl.a. det amerikanske S&P500-indeks lukkede over 2000 for første gang nogen sinde. De asiatiske markeder har også vist små stigninger i nat. Obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland faldt en smule. EUR blev svækket over for USD. Geopolitik: Egypten ser ud til at have mæglet en våbenhvile på plads mellem Israel og Hamas. Spændingerne mellem Ukraine og Rusland er dog stadig intakte, efter at et møde mellem landets to præsidenter i går ikke gav anledning til fremskridt, om end Putin udtalte sig positivt med hensyn til muligheden for fremtidige politiske forhandlinger. USA har sendt overvågningsfly ind over Syrien for at overvåge Islamic State-militser. USA: Forbrugertilliden fra Conference Board steg fra 90,3 til 92,4 i august, hvilket var mere end ventet, og det stærkeste niveau siden oktober Forventningerne til fremtiden faldt ganske vist en lille smule tilbage, men er stadig forenelig med stærk vækst i privatforbruget og vurderingen af den aktuelle økonomiske situation, der har tendens til at være stærkt korreleret med udviklingen på arbejdsmarkedet, steg markant. At arbejdsmarkedet er i fortsat bedring blev også understreget af et nyt fald i vurderingen af forskellen mellem om det er svært eller nemt at få arbejde til det laveste niveau siden maj Det peger på, at vi kan se yderligere fald i ledigheden i den kommende tid. Ordrerne på varige goder steg med hele 22,6% m/m i juli. Det var dog trukket af en ventet massiv stigning i langsigtede ordrer på fly, som i en del år endnu ikke vil have indflydelse på den økonomiske aktivitet. Ser man på den underliggende ordreaktivitet var billedet således en lille smule mere broget. Ordrerne på ikke-militære kapital goder ex fly, der ses som en god proxy for de fremadrettede investeringer, faldt således med 0,5% m/m, hvor der var ventet en lille stigning. Faldet kommer dog efter en kraftig oprevideret stigning i juni på 5,4% m/m, og er derfor ikke umiddelbart alarmerende - set over de seneste tre måneder er der tale om en stigning på 11,6% i forhold til den foregående tre-måneders periode. Og ser man på afskibningerne af ikke-militære kapitalgoder ex fly, der indgår i beregningen af BNP og dermed mest relevant for den aktuelle investeringsaktivitet så steg de med 1,5% m/m. Den regionale aktivitetsindikator for fremstillingssektoren fra Richmond Fed steg mod forventning fra 7 til 12 i august det stærkeste niveau siden marts Eneste lidt svage signaler vi fik, var fra de to husprisopgørelser for juni. CaseShillers opgørelse viste et fald i priserne på 0,2% m/m, hvilket var 2. måned i træk med tilbagegang. FHFA s opgørelse viste en stigning på 0,4% m/m, men væksten i maj blev dog nedjusteret fra 0,4% til 0,2% m/m. Mens svaghederne er mest udtalte i den førstnævnte peger begge på, at noget af dampen er gået af boligmarkedet når man ser på årsstigningstakterne. USA: Arbejdsmarkedet fortsætter med at hele For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 27. august 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,10% / indeks 801,01) endte i positivt territorium og fulgte dermed strømmen i Europa, hvor størstedelen af de ledende indeks endte dagen i plus. De europæiske aktier var ligesom dagen forinden fortsat begunstiget af spekulationer i markedet om, at den europæiske centralbank snart vil annoncere flere lempelige tiltag til gavn for europæisk økonomi og aktiemarkedet. Det danske aktiemarked var derimod tynget af Vestas (-5,48% / kurs 241,50) efter endnu et udenlandsk finanshus var ude med en negativ analyse på aktien. Således sænkede Bank of America deres kursmål på aktien med over 30%. GN Store Nord (-0,68% / kurs 131,00) kom også under pres efter at den schweiziske storbank UBS sænkede deres kursmål på aktien. Uden for eliteindekset var Bavarian Nordic (+0,86% / kurs 117,00) i fokus efter selskabet offentliggjorde, at det har modtaget en ordre fra den canadiske regering som lyder på en levering af i alt doser Imvamune koppevacine. Renter Som det også var tilfældet mandag er udviklingen i renterne formentlig stadig styret af ECB-chef Draghis kommentarer i fredags, hvor han åbnede døren op for ny pengepolitisk stimulans. Forventningerne om kvantitative lempelser fra ECB fortsætter således med at tage til i styrke, og det satte et fortsat pres nedad på renterne i både Danmark og Tyskland på en dag uden de store europæiske nøgletal på programmet. Rentefaldene var dog igen mest udtalte i periferilandene, hvor de 10-årige renter i både Italien og Spanien nåede nye lavpunkter. Rentefaldene blev dog bremset en smule af generelt positive nøgletal fra USA, hvor forbrugertilliden sprang i vejret, ordrerne på varige goder udviklede sig stærkt og den regionale erhvervstillid fra Richmond Fed steg til det højeste niveau siden november Eneste malurt i bægret var en lidt svagere udviklingen i ordrerne på ikkemilitære kapitalgoder ex fly, og måske mere afgørende et fald i CaseShillers opgørelse huspriserne for 2. måned i træk i juni. På den geopolitiske front var der ikke tegn på, at Ukraine og Rusland kom synderligt meget nærmere hinanden på gårsdagens møde mellem landets præsidenter. Til gengæld har Egypten fået mæglet en fredsaftale på plads mellem Israel og Hamas. Valuta EUR fortsætter med at blive svækket over for USD i takt med at forventningerne om kvantitative lempelser fra ECB tager til i styrke. Der var ingen synderlige nøgletal fra euroområdet på programmet, men til gengæld faldt de amerikanske af slagsen overvejende ud på den positive side, hvilket også gav lidt medvind til USD. Således sprang forbrugertilliden vejret, ordrerne på varige goder udviklede sig stærkt og den regionale erhvervstillid fra Richmond Fed steg til det højeste niveau siden november Eneste malurt i bægret var en lidt svagere udviklingen i ordrerne på ikke-militære kapitalgoder ex fly, og måske mere afgørende et fald i CaseShillers opgørelse huspriserne for 2. måned i træk i juni. JPY blev svækket en smule over for USD på en bedre stemning på aktiemarkederne, om end svækkelsen var begrænset da det japanske Nikkei-indeks havde lidt svært ved at følge med opad. GBP blev også styrket over for EUR, men blev holdt lidt tilbage af reducerede forventninger til en renteforhøjelse allerede i BRL styrkedes i går over for USD oven på offentliggørelsen af den seneste meningsmåling forud for præsidentvalget. Målingen viste for første gang ikke en sejr til den nuværende præsident Dilma Rousseff, hvilket ventes at betyde større vægt på en sund økonomisk politik og reformer. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 27. august 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 27/08/14 Boconcept Holding 1. kvartal 28/08/14 Bavarian Nordic 2. kvartal 28/08/14 NeuroSearch 2. kvartal 29/08/14 Simcorp 2. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 25/08/14 10:00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Aug /08/14 14:30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Jul (r) /08/14 15:00 Belgien Business Confidence Aug /08/14 15:45 USA Markit US Composite PMI Aug P /08/14 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Aug P /08/14 16:00 USA New Home Sales Jul 430K K(r) 412K 25/08/14 16:30 USA Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Aug /08/14 07:00 Japan Small Business Confidence Aug /08/14 14:30 USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) Jul 7.1% 8.0% 2.7%(r) 22.6% 26/08/14 14:30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (MoM) Jul 0.2% %(r) -0.5% 26/08/14 15:00 USA FHFA House Price Index (MoM) Jun 0.3% %(r) 0.4% 26/08/14 15:00 USA S&P/CS 20 (MoM/YoY) Jun 0.0%/8.3% %/9.4% -0.2%/8.1% 26/08/14 16:00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Aug (r) /08/14 16:00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Aug /08/14 08:00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Sep /08/14 08:00 Tyskland Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Jul -0.1%/-1.4% %/-1.2% 27/08/14 08:45 Frankrig Business Confidence Aug /08/14 09:00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Aug /08/14 09:30 Sverige Household Lending YoY Jul 5.5% % 27/08/14 10:00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Jun 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% 27/08/14 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 22. Aug % 28/08/14 03:30 Kina Industrial Profits YoY Jul % 28/08/14 09:00 Danmark Unemployment Rate SA Jul 4.0% 4.1% 4.0% 28/08/14 09:00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Jul 5.1% 5.2% 5.1% 28/08/14 09:55 Tyskland Unemployment Rate Aug 6.7% % 28/08/14 10:00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Jul 1.5% % 28/08/14 11:00 EMU Economic Confidence Aug /08/14 12:00 UK CBI Reported Sales Aug /08/14 14:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug P 0.0%/0.8% %/0.8% 28/08/14 14:30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 2Q S 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 28/08/14 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 01/08/23 300K K 28/08/14 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 24. Aug /08/14 16:00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.5%/-3.9% %/-4.5% 29/08/14 01:05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Aug /08/14 01:30 Japan Jobless Rate Jul 3.7% % 29/08/14 01:30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Jul 3.3% % 29/08/14 01:50 Japan Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.3%/-0.2% %/-0.6% 29/08/14 01:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul P 1.0%/-0.1% %/3.1% 29/08/14 08:00 UK Nationwide House PX MoM Aug 0.1%/10.2% %/10.6% 29/08/14 08:00 Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.1%/1.5% %/0.4% 29/08/14 09:00 Danmark GDP (QoQ/YoY) 2Q P 0.3%/1.0% -0.2%/0.5% 0.8%/1.3% 29/08/14 09:00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Aug /08/14 11:00 EMU Unemployment Rate Jul 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 29/08/14 11:00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Aug 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 29/08/14 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Aug A 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 29/08/14 14:00 Brazil GDP (QoQ/YoY) 2Q -0.4%/-0.3% -0.3%/0.0% 0.2%/1.9% 29/08/14 14:30 USA Personal Income (MoM) Jul 0.3% % 29/08/14 14:30 USA Personal Spending (MoM) Jul 0.2% % 29/08/14 14:30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.1%/1.5% %/1.5% 29/08/14 15:45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager Aug /08/14 15:55 USA Univ. of Michigan Confidence Aug F Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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