6 Daniel Brooks The South African Border War ( ) a Case Study. 14 Hans Henrik Møller Kunst på det operative niveau

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1 Indholdsfortegnelse Temaartikler: Militære Operationer Forord ved Selskabets formand 3 Forord 5 The Mathematics of War: Quantifying Insurgencies 6 Daniel Brooks The South African Border War ( ) a Case Study 14 Hans Henrik Møller Kunst på det operative niveau 25 Hans Henrik Møller Kredsløbsforstyrrelser 42 Hans Peter H. Michaelsen The Enemy Always Has a Vote - Israels erfaringer fra Anden Libanonkrig 57 Peter H. Sølling Narrative Led Operations 67 Thomas Elkjer Nissen Operationalizing Battlespace Agility 78 Dr. William Mitchell Artikler uden for tema Clausewitz i den tyske idealisme 96 Martin Sort Mikkelsen Kinas strategiske muligheder i det Sydkinesiske Hav 105 Chris Terndrup Nyt fra bogfronten 125 Anmeldelse af: Explaining Foreign Policy: International Diplomacy and the Russo-Georgian 126 War af Hans Mouritzen og Anders Wivel Anmeldt af lektor Birthe Hansen, ph. d. På afgrundens rand af Peer Henrik Hansen 128 Anmeldt af kommandør Poul Grooss Bornholm besat. Det glemte hjørne af Danmark under Anden Verdenskrig 129 af Jesper Gaarskjær Anmeldt af Niels Bo Poulsen Demolishing the Myth. The Tank Battle at Prokhorovka, Kursk, July 1943: 131 An Operational Narrative af Valeriy Zamulin Anmeldt af brigadegeneral Michael H Clemmesen Krigen ved verdens ende Christiansø af Rasmus Voss 133 Anmeldt af kommandør Poul Grooss Militært Tidsskrift, 141. årgang - nr. 4 - januar 2013, s. 1-2

2 Indholdsfortegnelse Det lille land før den store krig. De danske farvande, stormagtsstrategier, efterretninger og forsvarsforberedelser omkring kriserne af Michael H. Clemmesen Anmeldt af David Vestenskov, projektforsker, cand. mag. Verdenskrigens danske billeder af Claus Bundgård Christensen og Martin Bo Nørregård Anmeldt af brigadegeneral Michael H Clemmesen

3 Forord ved Selskabets formand Kære læser Så har vi taget hul på endnu et år og vi er dermed ved halvvejsmærket i forhold til Det Krigsvidenskabelige Selskabs indeværende forsamlingsår. Jeg finder det derfor passende at give en status på, hvordan det går med den omlægning af Selskabets virksomhed, som blev besluttet ved sidste generalforsamling. Bestyrelsen nedsatte kort tid efter generalforsamlingen en Implementeringsgruppe bestående af håndplukkede ressourcepersoner med interesse for Selskabet og med de generelle kompetencer, som er nødvendige, for at omsætte Bestyrelsens rapport om selskabets fremtid til konkret handling. Under min ledelse tog implementeringsgruppen fat på arbejdet umiddelbart efter sommerferien. Det gik relativt hurtigt op for os, at opgaven med at skabe en dynamisk web-portal, der også kan håndtere både debat, videnskabelige artikler og alle de andre medlemsrelaterede aktiviteter og funktioner er meget krævende, både teknisk og økonomisk. Eller sagt på en anden måde: Hvis det skal gøres ordentligt og ambitiøst bliver man nødt til at få hjælp fra professionelle og betale, hvad det koster. Vi har derfor besluttet at gå efter en ambitiøs løsning, som økonomisk ligger ud over, hvad vi umiddelbart havde i tankerne, da vi fremlagde vores planer på generalforsamlingen i maj sidste år. Til gengæld har vi parallelt med arbejdet søgt ekstern finansieringsstøtte, så investeringerne ikke kommer til at belaste Selskabets formue. Disse bestræbelser har båret frugt, så i skrivende stund har Selskabet modtaget kr i finansiel støtte til projektet. Samtidigt har vi besluttet, at nærværende nummer af Militært Tidsskrift bliver det sidste i trykt og postdistribueret form, hvilket i sig selv giver en årlig driftsbesparelse på ca. kr Den meget ambitiøse web-løsning vi har valgt, koster med udvikling og implementering tæt på kr. inkl. moms, en engangsinvestering der med fondsstøtte og sparede omkostninger i indeværende forsamlingsår kan rummes inden for Selskabets driftsøkonomi. Bestyrelsen har naturligvis overvejet, hvorvidt vores valg kræver tilsagn fra en ekstraordinær indkaldt generalforsamling. Vi har imidlertid vurderet, at den eksterne økonomiske støtte, som bestyrelsen har sikret Selskabet medfører, at projektet stadig ligger inden for det mandat, som Bestyrelsen fik på den seneste ordinære generalforsamling i maj sidste år. Det vil føre for vidt her at redegøre for, hvad den valgte web-løsning indebærer og hvilke nye spændende muligheder den giver for Selskabet, men det vil vi gøre i stor detalje til den ordinære generalforsamling den 16. maj 2013 på Hærens Officersskole, idet vi påtænker at søsætte web-portalen på selve generalforsamlingen. Selvom vi ikke længere udsender Militært Tidsskrift, så forsætter redaktionen med at inddrage artikler, som om intet var hændt. Disse artikler vil blive tilgængelige, når den nye web-portal går i luften til maj, så der er kun tale om et midlertidigt ophold i vidensstrømmen fra Militært Tidsskrift. Vi er også gået i gang med at søge ekstern finansiel støtte til en digitalisering af de gamle trykte Tidsskrifter, så web-portalen også bliver et elektronisk arkiv over de gamle tidsskrifter, så studerende, forskere og andre interesserede kan søge viden i den skatkiste, som Militært Tidsskrift udgør. Militært Tidsskrift, 141. årgang - nr. 4 - januar 2013, s. 3-4

4 Forord ved Selskabets formand Arbejdet med at transformere Det Krigsvidenskabelige Selskab er således i god gænge og Bestyrelsen glæder sig til at kunne fremvise resultatet for generalforsamlingen. Med ønsket om et godt nytår til alle! Nils Wang Formand 4

5 Forord Kære læsere Årets sidste nummer og det sidste nummer af Militært Tidsskrift nogensinde i det eksisterende format omhandler Militære Operationer. Første artikel under dette tema er Daniel Brooks The Mathematics of War: Quantifying Insurgencies. Heri argumenteres for nytten af kvantitative analyseværktøjer og dertil knyttede matematiske modeller til at analysere oprørskamp som økosystemer. Artiklen derpå er oberstløjtnant Hans Henrik Møllers The South African Border War ( ) a case study. Hans Henrik Møller peger på, at mens den sydafrikanske hær i en snæver forstand af ordet opnåede betydelig militær succes under disse Bush Wars slog de i sidste instans fejl, dels fordi Sydafrika fejlede på det strategiske niveau, dels fordi en samtænkt indsats, hvor winning-hearts-andminds stod centralt, var fraværende. Også den efterfølgende artikel Kunst på det operative niveau er forfattet af Hans Henrik Møller. Den former sig som en introduktion til og diskussion af begrebet operational art og dets anvendelse. Det efterfølgende bidrag af major Hans Peter H. Michaelsen diskuterer svagheder og styrker i den for læserne vel så velkendte model krigsførelsens kredsløb. Undervejs i artiklen introduceres mulige alternativer og udbygningsmuligheder af den oprindelige model. Major Peter H. Sølling behandler i sin artikel The Enemy Always Has a Vote Israels erfaringer fra Anden Libanonkrig. Udover at gennemgå selve konflikten, drøftes de indvundne erfaringer i en dansk kontekst. I Narrative Led Operations af MA Thomas Elkjer Nissen ses på brugen af narrative i militære operationer, herunder hvordan de ikke blot kan bidrage til disses succes, men ligefrem komme til at stå centralt deri. Sidste artikel under temaet Militære Operationer er Dr. William Mitchells Operationalizing Battlespace Agility. Heri introducerer han dette danskudviklende koncept, som omhandler omsætningen af viden til effektorienteret handling på slagmarken og diskuterer dets implikationer for det 21. århundredes militære operationer. Temaredaktionen under ledelse af oberstløjtnant Hans Henrik Møller takkes varmt for deres omfattende arbejde med at identificere og producere bidragene til temaet. Videre følger et bidrag af kommandørkaptajn Martin Sort Mikkelsen. Under titlen Clausewitz i den tyske idealisme. Artiklen undersøger Clausewitz åndelige udspring i den tyske idealisme og særligt hans inspiration fra Kant og Hegel. Uden for tema bringes også en artikel, som rettelig skulle have været bragt i det forudgående nummer, omhandlende Forsvarsakademiets stabskursus, men som ved en beklagelig fejl ikke medtoges. Der er tale om major Chris Terndrups artikel Kinas strategiske muligheder i det Sydkinesiske Hav. Det er vurderingen i artiklen, at Kina vil have interesse i at skabe og fastholde et stabilt ydre miljø, så landet kan koncentrere sig om økonomisk vækst og akkumulere relativ magt uden at fremprovokere modbalanceringstiltag fra staterne i det Sydkinesiske Hav eller USA. Næppe overraskende rundes nummeret af med en anmeldelsessektion, hvor efterårets boghøst dissekeres. Denne er under redaktion af kommandør Poul Grooss. På kanten af 2013, hvor dette nummer færdigredigeres, er der som antydet i første linje store ændringer på vej i Det Krigsvidenskabelige Selskabs arbejdsformer og i dets formidlings- og diskussionsværktøjer. For detaljer henvises til formandens status over reformarbejdet i selskabet, som er bragt på siderne umiddelbart før dette forord. Som det fremgår deraf ophører Militært Tidsskrift i selvstændig form med dette nummer. Fremover vil det stof Militært Tidsskrift har rummet, dvs. krigsvidenskabelige artikler, debatstof og anmeldelser, samt orienteringer fra Det Krigsvidenskabelige Selskab være at finde på selskabets nye webportal. Samtidig vil der ske væsentlige ændringer i redaktionens sam- Militært Tidsskrift, 141. årgang - nr. 4 - januar 2013, s. 5-6

6 Forord mensætning. Der er tale om en så stor omlægning, at det her synes på sin plads at bringe en stor tak til de skriftende medlemmer af redaktionen som gennem årene har ydet et stort og uselvisk arbejde med at skaffe stof til bladet. Uden en kompetent og meget aktiv redaktion ville bladet have været tyndere både målt i volumen og i kvalitet. Skønt redaktionsmedlemmerne gennem årene også selv har bidraget med meget stof, er det dog vigtigt at understrege, at forudsætningen for et vellykket redaktionelt arbejde har været baglandet af altid skriveparate og kyndige læsere. Mens skiftende temaer bl.a. med bidrag fra mange eksterne skribenter uden for selskabets rækker har givet tidsskriftet et bredt udsyn til udenrigspolitiske, pædagogisk-didaktiske, teknologiske og mange andre aspekter af det generelle landskab krigsførelsen befinder sig i, er det fra selskabets egne medlemmer, at hovedparten af stoffet vedrørende de militære kerneområder, ikke mindst de militære operationer er kommet. Derfor har disse linjer, hvormed Militært Tidsskrift som papirmedium nu takker af, mange adressater. Og skønt det på mange måder er en sørgmodig og ansvarstyngende opgave at deltage i omplantningen af et mere end hundrede år gammelt og på alle måder hæderskronet tidsskrift fra papir- til netform, er der i denne signaturs sind ingen tvivl om, at den solide militærfaglige tænkning og diskussion Militært Tidsskrift har stået for, vil få langt bedre betingelser fremover, skønt formatet bliver anderledes. Og hvis man som bruger af tidsskriftet har prøvet at rode stakke med gamle tidsskrifter frem i bogreolerne derhjemme for at finde en bestemt artikel, om hvilken man kun kan huske indhold, men hverken årstal, nummer eller titel, kan man glæde sig til de forbedrede funktionaliteter på den kommende portal, herunder at der hen ad vejen bliver mulighed for at søge i alle tidligere numre af Militært Tidsskrift. Redaktionen ønsker på den baggrund læserne et godt På gensyn til foråret som skribenter og læsere på Det Krigsvidenskabelige Selskabs nye webportal! Niels Bo Poulsen, chefredaktør 6

7 The Mathematics of War: Quantifying Insurgencies Daniel Brooks, M.Sc student, Niels Bohr Institute and the Royal Danish Defense College. Abstract The aim of this article is to call attention to a mathematical model that treats modern insurgency as an ecological system and how this analysis may provide commanders with valuable feedback on the effect of their strategies on insurgent networks. This model published in the internationally renowned magazine Nature describes insurgency as an ecology of dynamically evolving, self-organized groups following common decision-making processes. 1 The possible avenues of applying this model to provincial or district-scale battlespace in order to raise situational awareness and understanding is the subject of this article, and the research project I am conducting in this area is introduced. Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches to Intelligence Analysis In intelligence analysis there are essentially two favored approaches. One is expert assessment, where subject matter experts rely on extensive experience and knowledge of their fields and from this draw conclusions based on available knowledge and their own educated guesses. As is clear to analysts, the key difficulty to this approach is the unavoidable reliance on a mental model. Mental model is a term that covers the body of experience and knowledge that offers the analyst a certain perspective or viewpoint. Mental models serve as filters/paradigms, telling the observer what is important and how to interpret data. 2 An alternative approach to intelligence analysis is so-called Structured Analytical Techniques (SAT) which is a toolbox of logic techniques that lends some degree of quantifiable value to a difficult analysis that often must be based on multiple assumptions of varying reliability that place even experts on shaky ground. SATs give experts the tools necessary to collaborate in a structured manner and root out common biases in their analysis. A third approach that has fallen out of favor for a number of sound reasons is actual scientific inquiry based on mathematical models. With modern tools of intelligence gathering and information management however it has become feasible to start applying quantitative models based solely on data without going through the filters and paradigms of analysis. The attraction to this approach is that it does not fall afoul of a number of cognitive biases that limit the expert in the mental model. The major problem with the comprehensive, quantitative approach however is the limited data set. Because the simple fact is that it is impossible to know all the ends. A complete picture of a given battlespace will never be available to the intelligence analyst, not only because insurgent forces do their very best to hide their activities and organization, but also because the insurgent network cannot in truth be called a singular organizational network. Systems and Intelligence In the target-centric approach to intelligence analysis, all targets are considered systems, consisting of structure, function and process. Furthermore, in irregular war, almost all targets may be considered complex systems, because they are in a constant state of dynamic evolution and thus behave in non-linear fashion. 3 Non-linearity is an important Militært Tidsskrift, 141. årgang - nr. 4 - januar 2013, s. 7-13

8 The Mathematics of War: Quantifying Insurgencies concept in science. Linear systems are of interest to natural science because it is possible to solve them analytically: the variables examined can be separated and evaluated independently. In non-linear systems however, this is not possible as the system as an observable phenomenon will break down once we begin examining its components separately; out of context of related system components. A relevant model to examine to see the difference between non-linear and linear systems is the organization of military and insurgent organizations. One can easily construct a hierarchy of command and structure when looking at a military unit, whereas constructing a hierarchy of an insurgent organization is at best very difficult with numerous cross-links between subordinates. Insurgent organizations are thus usually referred to as networks, because of this highly interlinked nature. However, as is known to anyone who has worked in the intelligence business of irregular war, reality is even more complicated than one might expect and in fact often exceeds the analytical capacity of the human mind. Insurgencies cannot simply be described as networks of fighters, but must rather be seen in the context of an extremely complex ecosystem of causes and effects. So what is the use of attempting to do quantitative science on a vastly complex system when most of the data is essentially unavailable? Power Laws The answer lies in what kinds of observables we do have access to. A lot can for example be said of the complex inner workings of our Earth from observing the patterns of earthquakes, or the flow of water in an ocean by watching the surface currents. When we examine systems for observable attributes, we are almost always using some kind of statistical trick to map reality into graspable numbers. For example, evaluating the performance of soldiers in a military unit usually involves doing statistical averages on scores of personal abilities. Attributes like grades usually follow a bell curve, also known as the normal distribution. Normal distributions are entirely defined by their mean and variance, which gives very convenient, simple numbers to report. However, normal distributions are usually found when events are independent of each other. Once the interdependence of events become important, the normal distribution fails, because feedback loops tend to amplify small initial events. This can be observed in a statistical relationship called a power law, or Pareto distribution. When the frequency of an event relies on the power of some attribute of that event, such a size, it is said to follow a power law. Many complex, non-linear systems, where events are highly interdependent, exhibit this particular behavior. Examples include earthquakes, stock market fluctuations, traffic to websites, popularity of authors, and as it turns out, kinetic events in irregular wars. Power laws do not have a clearly defined average, so they do not lend immediate, simple numbers to those looking for them. Simple numbers, however, are likely to represent a static image of the systems whose attributes they represent, and there is often a tendency to look for the static when one should be examining a dynamic, and this is where power laws have their greatest use. 4 It has been established in prior research by Gourley et al that attack distribution in an irregular war, when considering intensity versus frequency, follows a power law, f(x)=ax^-k and also that the stability and hence the continuation of the war is correlated with the slope of this power law. The conflict can be expected to continue when k~2.5 whereas it can be expected to come to an end when k>=3 or k<=2. 8

9 The Mathematics of War: Quantifying Insurgencies Figure 1: The bell curve compared to the power law curve. A thing to note is that a bell curve tends to drop very quickly, while the 'long tail' of the power law continues. This is where rare, extreme events happen. Figure 2: Example of power law distribution of deadly kinetic events in Iraq. Analysis by David Braun, Dynamic Battlespace Analysis While an irregular conflict is a beast of astounding complexity, the discovery that something as central as the distribution of attacks might provide insight into the ebb and flow of related dynamics is of interest to both military strategists as well as members of the public wanting to inform themselves on the course of a conflict their nation is invested in without 9

10 The Mathematics of War: Quantifying Insurgencies the embellishment of facts that automatically comes with the territory. An irregular conflict is by its nature a combination of kinetic actions and politics, where the battlefield is located not just on the physical terrain but just as much in the subjective, cognitive space of people's opinions on their situation. The main objective of most of these conflicts is the creation or dissolution of stability, and because stability is a subjective notion in the minds of civilians in both the arena of conflict as well as the political arena that supports the military efforts, information is almost always filtered through a number of directed interests, rendering most reports on the conflict editorialized beyond reasonable accuracy. Reliable, objective information has become a rare commodity indeed, and an objective tool for assessing the actual state of a conflict based on publicly available data such as reports of kinetic activity is worth pursuing and developing in the interest of a well-informed public. Meanwhile, military strategists who face the complexity of the network-based battlespace on a daily basis might find a useful tool in a model that provides information on the time-evolution of the network that produces kinetic activities. The system of causes and effects in a counterinsurgency operations battlespace like Afghanistan is a daunting maze of effects feeding into each other, each of which usually also represents a network in themselves. Military intelligence is tasked with providing a clear picture of each of these factors, the primary of which is human terrain mapping, with a focus on red force (enemy) identification and inquiry. This process usually uses a detail-oriented approach, gathering information on the individuals and their interactions from a number of source types such as IMINT (Imagery Intelligence), concerned with the analysis of images from operatives or orbital satellites, HUMINT (Human Intelligence), concerned with person-to-person intelligence gathering and SIGINT (Signals Intelligence) usually concerned with eavesdropping on the various means of electronic communications. These parts of the intelligence apparatus are all bottom-up approaches where as many details as possible are fused into a broad picture. This is considered a robust, logical system which provides the most accurate and unbiased version of reality that commanders in the field can act upon. But no matter how robust and how many resources are put into the gathering of intelligence in this manner the drawback is of course that one cannot know everything. Information needs to be corroborated, often by multiple intelligence types, and some things just always fall under the radar either because the individuals in question are very careful to keep their activities hidden, that they operate in a grey area of the complex network of causeand-effect that intelligence, having limited resources, isn't concerned enough with, or that their signal just doesn't make big enough waves to rise above the noise level and figure on the intelligence gathering apparatus' channels. A top-down approach can therefore prove itself useful to military strategists wanting to provide commanders with a broad picture of the situation, based on the best available data, but taking into account the holes in the map of details. Some forms of intelligence gathering work like this, notable among which is MASINT (Measurement and Signature Intelligence) which employs remote sensing techniques to map out things like general heat activity in an area, or compares highresolution images to assess whether the ground has been disturbed, indicating IED emplacement Top-down approaches like these can be difficult for the analyst to put into practical intelligence, especially for lower levels of command such as Battle Group, and the power law model approach dealt with in this research project is likely to have its limitations. The power law model does not provide a 'war forecast' and can't tell a commander where the next attack is going to occur. It can, however, give a broad sense of how a newly employed strategy is affecting the battlespace and the insurgent network with time. Though, if this model is to be useful to anything below the very top level of control in the conflict, it all depends on whether the model exhibits a property known as scale invariance. 10

11 The Mathematics of War: Quantifying Insurgencies Scale Invariance A central aspect of power law distributions is their scale invariance. A system producing a power law behavior ought to be able to exhibit the same properties when a subset of this system is considered. What this means for the concrete project at hand is that the power law behavior of the Afghanistan war exhibited on a national scale should also exist when looking at the conflict on the provincial level. The obvious choice here is of course Helmand Province where the Danish forces are deployed and the author has direct intelligence experience as well as access to raw intelligence. The challenge with provincialor district-level attack distribution is the resolution of data. Because Gourley et al did not have access to military intelligence they had to rely on newspaper clippings to provide them with data on attacks. The downside to this is obviously that only attacks that cause casualties are reported in the media. On the contrary, the advantage to a data set such as this is that there is a very reliable, linear number that can be used as an intensity measure: number of deaths caused. When faced with a much higher resolution of data presented by actual intelligence, it becomes a challenge to create a linear scale for measurement of intensity, when no mortal casualties are involved. The Research Project The detailed aims of this research project is to: Test the power law model of human insurgency against a higher resolution dataset supplied by military intelligence. Test the scale-freedom of the model of human insurgency when applied to a smaller subset of the Afghanistan conflict. Develop a numerical simulation of the insurgency network in Helmand, based on both the network database as well as intelligence reports on the organizational structure of the insurgency. Subsequently test if it can produce the same power law behavior. Discuss practical implications and applications of these models. Scale-free networks The 2.5 slope is interesting to consider as it invites a relationship with a number of networks found elsewhere in nature. For example, an auto-catalytic network in biology, the self-organized system thought responsible for the origins of life, exhibits what appears to be a very relevant property: its degree distribution follows a power law and is stable and functioning only when this power law has a slope between 2 and 3. The similarity is striking, and it would therefore be of value to try out some of the models of scale-freedom on the insurgency ecosystem. Another important aspect in assessing the scale-freedom exhibited by insurgency systems is to find out how small a scale, in time and space and group size the model still works. This would be of value because it can represent a boundary condition on the usefulness of the model to provide feedback on strategic decisions of commanders and strategists. A test of the model, both numerically and on real data, on smaller and larger scales, is therefore called for: Theatre-level, provincial-level and district-level. Directed Network-based model of insurgency While the ecosystem model of insurgencies is, despite the complexity of the system it models quite mathematically simple and reproduces the observed power law behavior when run through numerical simulations, it would be interesting to see if a directednetwork model exhibits the same. To do this, I aim to design a new model from scratch, 11

12 The Mathematics of War: Quantifying Insurgencies considering the train of resources from sources such as out-of-country support lines through intermediaries such as IED workshops and into the hands of the end users who bring the actual attack to fruition. This model would include a grouping and fragmentation element, but instead of an addition of work as communication or collaboration happens, the groups themselves would form a network on which work that goes into an attack travels from sources to sinks, gaining momentum before it goes into the final product, the attack. Whether this is a useful change to the model remains to be seen, but intelligence experience suggests that the insurgency effort is highly reliant on this train of resources where many insurgent groupings serve in supporting roles to commanders in the field. For example, an IED maker is a very high value target for coalition forces in Afghanistan because though he may never conduct attacks himself directly, he represents a concentration of effort by the insurgency in the areas of training, materials support and logistics that is of central importance to its effectiveness. Processing SALTAs and 9-liners The most consistent source of data in the Afghanistan theatre is the JCHAT message board, where all incident reports are logged as they happen. A SALTA is a first-response attack report filed by the Tactical Operations Center (TOC) the given unit under attack belongs to. A 9-liner is a request for medical assistance in the field. These are valuable sources of data, not least because they are presented in a very precise format that may be mined for data easily. Nine-liners and SALTAs contain exact positions in time and space, as well as count of casualties, deaths as well as injuries. However, this may not be enough. A kinetic incident is a messy thing where minute chaotic details become the difference between life and death for the parties involved. While on the large scale a casualty count may be sufficient, when dealing with a higher resolution data set, it becomes tricky to factor in all the elements of an attack merely from the unlucky statistics of death and injury. It may become necessary to go through follow-up reports to gain a clearer picture of how much effort and work has gone into a kinetic incident, as this is ultimately the property which is important. Gathering intelligence It is possible to base a model on real intelligence gathered on the observed structure of insurgent networks in the field. These observations are by their nature synthesized from a number of different sources, almost all of which are classified. This poses some challenges to the gathering of useful data, since this project document itself will be unclassified. The anonymization of classified data is tricky because it isn't from the outset clear which parts are essential to building a functional model. Nevertheless, it will be possible to append a classified section to the project which will serve to give strategists a clearer contextualized picture of the usefulness of these models to feedback and decision-making. Another issue with gathering useful data is that most available intelligence has been pre-analysed and filtered before being entered into the database. Added to this issue is that the analysts are exchanged in regular rotation, and as they gain experience and are replaced, their methods and focus will shift. A solid data source would therefore need to be unfiltered, and the most promising data source for this is electronic signal intercepts. While the value to an all-source intelligence cell of this raw data is problematic before it has been analysed, the aims of this research project is as indicated earlier, not to gain a complete knowledge of the intelligence situation, but rather to analyse the dynamic evolution of it. 12

13 The Mathematics of War: Quantifying Insurgencies Concluding Remarks As the network-centric battlespace gains credit as a paradigm in intelligence analysis, it becomes useful to apply the tools of complex systems analysis to the box. In the extremely complicated realm of modern irregular warfare, it is impossible to know all the factors. However, in the same fashion as it is possible to gain knowledge about the internal dynamics of an ocean by observing the waves on its surface, so it may be possible to say something about the complicated and chaotic ecology of cause and effect at work in insurgent activities from observation of their surface activities. While the author holds no illusions about being able to predict the outcome of the Afghanistan conflict, military strategists are urged not to disregard the potential power of quantitative tools of intelligence analysis to provide situational awareness and understanding of an objective nature. Sources 1 Juan Camilo Bohorquez, Sean Gourley et al, Common ecology quantifies human insurgency, Nature 462, (17 December 2009) 2 Heuer, Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, CQ Press, 2011, p. 5 3 Robert M Clark, Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach, Chapters 1-2 CQ Press, John Hagel, The Power of Power Laws, 13

14 The South African Border War ( ) a Case Study Hans Henrik Møller, Institute for Military Operations, Royal Danish Defence College. This paper was presented to the US Joint Staff College during my participation in the Post Graduate Military Education, level II in The paper concluded an elective on Low Intensity Conflict: Insurgency and Counterinsurgency Warfare. Introduction The South African Border War or the Bush War - was a quite remarkable conflict that took place in the border region between South-West-Africa (Namibia), Angola and the Republic of South Africa between 1966 and 1989 which makes it one of the longest conflicts on the African continent. The conflict is not well known because the events took place during the Cold War where the involved actors de facto acted as proxies in the overall ideological struggle between East and West. The conflict covered most of the South African region. The seed to the conflict originated from the colonial past, where most African countries were colonized and governed by European nations and white minorities. Following the end of World War II, African states gradually gained independence from their former colonial rulers often through a violent liberation struggle aimed against the colonial authorities but also against rivaling tribes. The post-colonial states, which subsequently emerged from the struggle, were mostly characterized by dictatorships, instability, and poverty and often with a mainly Marxist political agenda. In contrast South Africa was not ruled by any colonial power and continued throughout and initially with some success - their capitalist, nationalist government, and policy of apartheid headed by the white minority elite. Source: South African Border War, Wikimedia available on ap.png Militært Tidsskrift, 141. årgang - nr. 4 - januar 2013, s

15 The South African Border War ( ) a Case Study This paper does not intend to describe or explain the South African Border War as a whole, but will focus on the insurgency and counterinsurgency campaign that took place between the South West Africa People s Organization (SWAPO) and South Africa in the border region between Namibia and Angola. Further the paper will discuss and compare the actual course of the campaign with some of the basic tenants of counterinsurgency strategies as defined by Dr. Paul Melschen 1 in his article Mapping Out a Counterinsurgency Campaign Plan Overview The Republic of South Africa 2 By the early 1960 the implementation of apartheid and repression of the black population in South Africa met growing internal and external criticism. The two political parties in opposition to the white minority government African National Congress (ANC) and the Pan African Congress (PAC) adopted a violent struggle against the apartheid regime. Following the Sharpeville massacre in 1960 the two parties were banned in South Africa, and were forced to establish themselves in neighboring countries (the so called Frontline States). A United Nations (UN) General Assembly resolution in 1962 called on member states to break diplomatic relations with South Africa and terminate trade relations. In the 1970s, widespread labor actions and unrest culminated with the Soweto riots in The UN adopted an embargo on arms sales to South Africa and the global opposition against the apartheid regime led to a growing isolation of the country, reducing foreign investments and trade, thereby crippling the South African economy significantly. In the late 1970s and early 1980s armed groups from the ANC and PAC began infiltrating South Africa from their front-line states sanctuaries, carrying out urban terror actions. The South African government responded by imposing a state of emergency and employed security forces in a series of interdiction operations in Angola and Zambia. This intensified the international pressure and almost brought South African economy to a collapse. In the late 1980s the president of South Africa F.W. de Klerk began a reformation process away from apartheid, finally leading to free elections and a change of regime that saw the ANC leader Nelson Mandela come to power as president in Namibia South West Africa (Namibia) was a German Colony until it was occupied by South African troops during World War I. After the completion of the Treaty of Versailles, German South West Africa was declared a mandate of the League of Nations, and put under South African administration. In the late 1940s South Africa partially introduced Apartheid in Namibia preventing black Namibians political rights and restricted social and economic freedoms. Since the late 1940s the South West Africa issue often was subject for debates in 1Dr. Paul Melshen is a professor of Strategic Studies and Military History at the Joint Forces Staff College, National Defense University, Norfolk, Virginia, United States of America. The article Mapping out a Counterinsurgency Campaign Plan: Critical Considerations in Counterinsurgency Campaigning was presented as a paper at the Philippine Army Senior Leaders Conference, 17 March Compiled from: South Africa, Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Available from Background Note; South Africa, U.S. Department of State, Bureau of African Affairs. Available from 15

16 The South African Border War ( ) a Case Study the UN. Following the general trend of opposition against the colonial powers and apartheid, the South West Africa People s Organization (SWAPO) was founded in SWAPO was dominated by the Owambo tribe the largest tribe in Namibia - which inhabits Owamboland in northern Namibia as well as the southernmost Angola (See table 1.0). SWAPO soon became the main political force in the region, and in 1966 SWAPO initiated an armed struggle to liberate Namibia, initially operating from bases in Zambia. After Angola gained independence in 1975, SWAPO moved their bases there. Over Table 1.0 Namibia s Population Figures (1983) the years hostilities intensified particularly Population %Total in Owamboland in the north. The Owambo 526, General Assembly of UN terminated the Kavango peoples 97, mandate and decided Namibia to be placed under administration of the UN; however South Africa preserved their Herero 77, presence and control of the country. In Dama 76, UN recognized SWAPO as the Whites 75, official representative of the Namibian people. During the 1980s the South African campaign to suppress SWAPO Nama Coloureds 49,430 43, accelerated with large scale attacks Caprivians 39, into Angola proper. In 1988 the South San (Bushmen) 29, African effort collapsed and a UN supervised cease-fire led to the simultaneous withdrawal of Cuban troops from Basters Tswana 26,293 6, Angola and of South African forces from Other 11, Namibia. In the late 1980s, in the face TOTAL 1,150,650 of condemnations, sanctions, and political pressure from the international Source: Dept. of Manpower in Windhoek community South Africa accepted a UN supervised transition to Namibian independence. The Front Line States From 1960 through 1980 most of the African countries in the region fought for their own independence and were in fierce opposition to the South Africa regime. The so called frontline states included Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe 4. Of specific relevance to this paper are Angola and Zambia. These states neighbors Namibia to the North and East and provided sanctuaries for a number of liberation movements that have taken up armed struggle against the colonial rulers and the apartheid regime in South Africa. 3 Namibia description compiled from: History of Namibia, History World. Available on TextHistories.asp?historyid=ad32 Namibia , HistoryOfWar.org. Available on Major Robert C. Owen, Counterrevolution in Namibia, Airpower Journal, winter Frontline States, South African History Online, available on 16

17 The South African Border War ( ) a Case Study Angola Angola is a former Portuguese colony. In the early 1960s a number of movements were active in the struggle for an independent Angola. Most dominant were the Marxist inspired Popular de Libertaqao de Angola (MPLA) with its armed wing Forças Armadas Populares de Libertação de Angola (FAPLA) and the anti-communist Uniao Nacional para a Independencia (UNITA). In 1975 Angola gained independence and the following fight for power between MPLA and UNITA evolved into a civil war that continued until South Africa provided support to UNITA in an attempt to counter Communism in Southern Africa, while Cuba, backed by the Soviet Union, provided troops and arms in support of MPLA. After the Portuguese security forces left Angola in 1975, MPLA offered SWAPO sanctuary in Southern Angola in support of SWAPOs struggle for an independent Namibia. Between 1979 and 1988, the conflict between the UNITA and the MPLA/FAPLA continued, with both South Africa and Cuba providing support to the opposing sides. In the 1980s the South Africa Defense Force (SADF) launched numerous cross border attacks on SWAPOs bases in Angola which lead to direct confrontations between SADF and Cuban forces. As a part of an UN peace plan, both South Africa and Cuba withdrew their troops in Zambia Zambia is a former British colony known as Northern Rhodesia until 1964, when it made a peaceful transition to independence. Zambia had hostile white minority governments to its west, south and east, including the Portuguese-ruled Angola and Mozambique, apartheid states South Africa and Rhodesia, and South African-occupied South West Africa (Namibia). Zambia provided safe havens for a number of armed resistance movements in Southern Africa during the 1970s. The armed wing of the South African ANC, ZANU from Rhodesia (Zimbabwe), the MPLA and SWAPO military wing Peoples Liberation Army of Namibia (PLAN) where all operating from inside Zambia 6. The SADF launched several attacks and raids into the southwestern part of Zambia in order to destroy PLAN, thereby preventing them from infiltrating into the northeastern part of Namibia the Caprivi Strip. After 1975, when Angola gained independence, the main part of SWAPO and PLAN moved to Angola. The belligerents The South African Security Forces 7 The South African Security Forces in Namibia were; the South African Police (SAP); the South African Defense Force (SADF); and the South West African Territorial Force (SWAFT). Initially, security operations in Namibia were conducted by South African police units with some counterinsurgency skills and supported by air assets from the South African Air Force. SAP had gained direct counterinsurgency experience from South African policemen that had fought in Rhodesia (Zimbabwe). Rhodesia was to be the training-ground of many later counterinsurgency specialists, including the officers who set up the special counterinsurgency-force Koevoet (crowbar) in Namibia 8. Koevoet was a police counterinsurgency unit formed in It consisted of white South African officers and black constables primarily recruited among the Owambo tribe and former PLAN warriors. The unit was un- 5 The Angolan-Namibian peace plan is accepted, South African History Online, available on 6 Christian Rainer, History battle: Zambia's dubious role in Namibia's freedom fight, Afrol News available on 7 Major Robert C. Owen, Counterrevolution in Namibia,(Airpower Journal, winter ). 8 Ros Reeve and Stephen Ellis, An Insider's Account of the South African Security Forces' Role in the Ivory Trade, (Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 1995)p. 1 17

18 The South African Border War ( ) a Case Study conventional but highly effective due to an intimate knowledge of the operating environment and the employment of effective counterinsurgency tactics and techniques known as the mechanized tracking concept. They combined a fast intelligence and decision cycle with rapid employment of small, mobile and armored unit s with skillful trackers that would lead them to contact. Once contact was made the battle was fought mounted which gave Koevoet a vast superiority in protection, firepower, mobility and overview. Each unit was given complete freedom to pursue the enemy with no imposed limitations in time, space, or method. The high tempo of these operations made it very difficult for the opponent to effectively apply counter-tracking techniques. The result was a doctrine and a force that PLAN could not match, and their operations in Northern Namibia became virtually suicidal. By 1987 a PLAN soldier had no more than 36 hours in Owamboland before Koevoet were in pursuit 9. From 1972 the internal unrest in Namibia as well as the pressure from the insurgents reached a level where the SAP was overwhelmed, and in 1974 the SADF took over responsibility for the border security in Northern Namibia even though they did not have much combat experience or counterinsurgency skills 10. The total number of SADF forces in Northern Namibia at any given time was approximately covering 500 km. border and the whole of Owamboland. The SADF units were conventional infantry and mechanized army formations, consisting of national service men in their second year of service. They were rotated in from battalions in South Africa to serve three months tours of operational duty 11. They were neither trained nor equipped for counterinsurgency operations. 12 Gradually SADF acknowledged this problem and an increasing number of black soldiers from Namibia and Angola were recruited to SADF battalions. Most of these units were transferred to the SWATF in Besides securing the border region the SADF from the late 1970s were employed in a series of external operations in to Angola aiming at destroying bases, and infrastructure belonging to SWAPO, FAPLA and Cuban forces. In 1980, the territorial force SWATF consisting of local recruited soldiers was established under control of the SADF to handle internal security in Namibia. SWATF soon developed into a very competent counterinsurgency force and by 1989 it provided for % of the ground forces deployed against PLAN. Of special interest is the 101 battalion located in the Owambo region conducting rural counterinsurgency operations following the mechanized tracking concept developed by Koevoet. South West Arica People s Organization During the 1960s a liberation movement with a mainly Marxist agenda (SWAPO) appeared in Namibia. In 1966 SWAPO established its fighting force the People's Liberation Army of 9 Modern African Wars (3), South West Africa, edited by Martin Windrow, Men at Arms Series 242,(Osprey Publishing Ltd, London, 1991), p Dr Leopold Scholtz, Extraordinary Professor, Department of History, Stellenbosch University, South Africa The Namibian Border War, An appraisal of the South African Strategy, (Scientia Militaria: South African Journal of Military Studies, Volume 34, 2006) p Edward George McGill Alexander, Master of Arts in the subject of history, The Cassinga Raid, (Unpublished MA thesis, University of South Africa, July 2003) p To underline the problem a South African police commander wrote in his memoirs: We took a boy who had just matriculated, gave him a gun, two to three months of basic training and then threw him in the middle of a country that he did not know, people he did not understand and an enemy that he had never seen. No wonder he did not do very well. 39 Indeed, how could you expect city boys to track and find guerrillas who grew up in the area and knew every bush-craft trick in the book when they did not want to be found?. Colonel Eugene De Kock, A Long Night s Damage, (Contra Press, Johannesburg, 1998) p

19 The South African Border War ( ) a Case Study Namibia or PLAN and an armed revolt began. At this time Angola was still a Portuguese colony, which meant that any supply lines to friendly black nations were too long for the Namibian rebels to get enough weapons and aid to wage a serious military campaign, and subsequently resorted to gathering support and small acts of terrorism and sabotage. In 1975, Angola became independent and with shorter supply lines SWAPO was able to initiate a serious guerrilla warfare campaign. With Angolan safe havens close to Namibia, SWAPO had around 18,000 men under arms by 1978 and could launch up to 800 men in raids into Namibia 13. The insurgents focused on Owamboland as their main objective with 46 per cent of the Namibian population living there. Owamboland was also the area where SWAPO - their leaders being Owambos - would have the best chance of gaining support and trust of the local s 14.The quality of the PLAN fighters improved significantly from 1978 due to better training and equipment provided by the FAPLA/Cuban instructors and forces in Angola. However, the South African Security Forces offensive strategy in the late 1970s to the mid-1980s with attacks into Angola and retaliatory strikes into Zambia, forced PLAN away from the border region. This combined with high number of casualties, destruction of bases and lines of communication lead to a significantly reduced activity, and according to some sources, almost broke the back of PLAN 15. By 1988, the number of PLAN troops had fallen to around 8700 of which no more than 800 were near the border to Namibia. In 1987 the war in Angola escalated. The Cuban troops got involved directly in the fighting, rushed reinforcements to the battle, and moved large formations close to the border for the first time during their involvement in Angola. The likelihood of a Cuban-South African confrontation suddenly increased. This turned the tide of the war once again for SWAPO as South African forces were reluctant to provoke the Cubans by crossing the border to destroy rebel bases. With safe havens near the border now available once again, SWAPO guerrillas were able to attack South African bases in Namibia and resume their guerrilla warfare operations. South African Strategy It is important to consider that the border war in Namibia was conducted during the cold war era. South Africa portrayed itself as an isolated Front line state facing the total onslaught of decolonization, communist expansion and the institutionalizing of black governments, in all of the neighboring countries. The geographical location of Namibia made it a perfect buffer zone to keep the communist influence away from South African home 13 Namibia , HistoryOfWar.org. Available on 14 Dr Leopold Scholtz, Extraordinary Professor, Department of History, Stellenbosch University, South Africa The Namibian Border War, An appraisal of the South African Strategy, (Scientia Militaria: South African Journal of Military Studies, Volume 34, 2006), p SWAPOs ability to strike at will into the Owambo area of Namibia now began to diminish rapidly. Plan combatants, previously based within a few kilometers of the Namibian border, were forced hundreds of kilometers back into the Angolan hinterland. The Plan headquarters and regional command points came under constant air and ground attack. Forward command posts from which guerrillas operated into Namibia became increasingly insecure if close to the border, with their lines of supply disrupted. This crucially affected their ability to conduct political work among the local population. Dr Leopold Scholtz, Extraordinary Professor, Department of History, Stellenbosch University, South Africa The Namibian Border War, An appraisal of the South African Strategy, (Scientia Militaria: South African Journal of Military Studies, Volume 34, 2006), p

20 The South African Border War ( ) a Case Study land. At the same time, Namibia possessed an enormous wealth of important minerals and therefore was of considerable economic importance to South Africa. This called for a South African forward defense strategy. In the early phases of the war, Namibia was merely treated as an integrated South African province where the laws of apartheid were applied, and the country was ruled from Pretoria through a white administration and law enforcement. In the 1970s, under pressure from a growing world opinion, economic sanctions and the rise of pre-colonial and anti-apartheid regimes in all the neighboring states, South Africa realized that they were losing the battle of narratives and that a transformation in Namibia towards independence was inevitable. The strategy was to ensure a controlled transformation to a state, which did not constitute a threat against South Africa. In hindsight the South African administration in Namibia failed to sufficiently synchronize their political, social, economic, and information lines, with their military approach. They did not understand the importance of winning the trust of the Namibian population, particularly the dominate Owambos, and failed to justify their course in a way that could legitimate a non-swapo regime after independence. They failed to win the battle of the narrative with the Owambo. The SADF tried hard to win the people s allegiance, while police units like Koevoet and SWAFT units relied on fear and coercion. Since the population viewed the police and the army as part of the same security forces, the actions of Koevoet affected the attitude of the population towards the South African authorities as a whole. 16 This lack of unity of effort across all the dimensions of the conflict, resulted in the loss of the hearts and minds of the Namibian population especially the Owambos - and at the end of the day, brought SWAPO to power. SWAPO Strategy SWAPOs strategy and tactics were classical. Trained in many countries such as the Soviet Union, the People s Republic of China, Cuba, East Germany etc. the SWAPO leaders were inculcated with the strategy and tactics which had been applied by the communist Chinese against the Nationalists in the late 1940s, by the Vietnamese against the French in the 1950s, and the Americans in the 1960s and 1970s. 17 The SWAPO strategy was to carry out the struggle simultaneously in the political, military and diplomatic fields. This involved three separate lines of operations: The first was the political or the home front, where the Namibian people themselves, having assumed the responsibility as their own liberators, are carrying on a militant resistance against colonial and illegal occupation. (Defining their narrative.) The second was on the international front. It represented international solidarity and co-operation. Its importance is consequential to the struggle internationally and anticipates the next stage of the struggle; this line was a vital link between the political and the military lines. (Reinforcing their narrative effectively via information domain.) On the basis of the all-round, concrete material assistance and political support rendered by its allies and friends, SWAPO was able to launch and sustain an armed struggle 18. (Producing actions to confirm their narrative.) 16 Dr Leopold Scholtz, Extraordinary Professor, Department of History, Stellenbosch University, South Africa The Namibian Border War, An appraisal of the South African Strategy, (Scientia Militaria: South African Journal of Military Studies, Volume 34, 2006) p Edward George McGill Alexander, Master of Arts in the subject of history, The Cassinga Raid, (Unpublished MA thesis, University of South Africa, July 2003), p Namibia Patriotic War available at 20

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