Europe Going Renewable: -The TSOs Power Transmission Challenges -

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1 ? 2091 Europe Going Renewable: -The TSOs Power Transmission Challenges ! Antje Orths Peter Børre Eriksen October A. Orths 1/19 Agenda European Renewable Energy Targets System Overview European TSOs under one Roof: ENTSO-E Challenges: - Offshore Wind and Transnational AC/DC Grid - Smart Grid Current Construction Sites TSOs Planning Tools for the Future Summary 14. October A. Orths 2/19

2 EU: Binding Targets RE share of energy consumption PL: 7 ->15 DE: 6 ->18 ES: 9 -> 20 DK: 15 -> 30 EU Renewable Energy Council: EU s Electricity Consumption 2020 Renewable Energy Sources: 34,8 % by wind 28 % by hydro 13,1 % by PV 18,3 % by Biomass rest: geother, solar ther, ocean sum = 1,370 TWh. ~ doubling compared to 2005 SE:39 ->49 source: Tom Howes, EU Commission 14. October A. Orths 3/19 Represents 42 TSOs from 34 countries replaces former TSO organisations: ATSOI, BALTSO, ETSO, NORDEL, UCTE, UKTSOA former UCTE part (2008): ~500 Mio inhabitants served in 24 countries installed capacity 794 GW max load (3rd monthly wedn: 392 GW) transborder exchange ~ 300 TWh /a fully operational since line length > 200,000 km HV source: October A. Orths 4/19

3 source: ENTSO-E 14. October A. Orths 5/19 Key-factors in Transmission Development Security of Supply Market/Economy Transmission system Renewables/ Climate/ Environment 14. October A. Orths 6/19

4 Visions of the Future I n pr og re ss Coordinated offshore development DC platforms North Sea Power Wheel Ek ofisk Kriegers Flak source: Airtricity Source: Statnett, EU offshore Coordinator, ENDK 22. mars October A. Orths 7/ million for a Combined Grid Solution at Kriegers Flak? Joint Application submitted in July 09 to the European Energy Programme for Recovery by Vattenfall Europe Transmission, Svenska Kraftnät and Energinet.dk Connection from Norway In progress Coordinated offshore development DC platforms Offshore wind energy: 1) Grid integration of offshore wind energy: Baltic Kriegers Flak I, II, III : Building on projects under development. Financing aimed at ensuring extra cost for securing a joint interconnection solution. Ekofisk Kriegers Flak - Envisaged contribution: 150 m 28. april October A. Orths 8/19

5 Gjesing Power System of the Future Going Smart VPPs have to offer grid support Grid relieved by prosumers Further Development of ICT technology and standards still necessary Pilot projects already proof feasibility => re-organisation of traditional structures and operation procedures is expected Coordination TSO/ DSO is necessary for both: Planning & Operation Security assessment systems are expected to contribute to solutions. Targeted monitoring, control and dynamic protection is expected to facilitate new way of system operation to keep security of supply. 14. October A. Orths 9/19 picture source: EU & OvG Uni Magdeburg Danish Pilot Project: Cell Controller Project: Real Life Test Nov 08 Agent Agent Agent Frequency Skjern Syd Skerris Hadrup Lille Gedved Elbæk Tarm Vest Tarm Skodbjerge STOUSTRUP THYREGOD Ås Barslund Egebjerg Knaplund HATTING Lund Blirup Ådum Honum BygholmFussingvej Åboulevarden Hemmet Kollemorten Give Drosselbo Horsens Kraftvarmeværk Sønderhov Torsvang Østergårde Sdr Omme Hauge Korning Ternevej Nymindegab Ølgod Filskov Krollerup Glud Uhe Farre Lindved Løsning Nr Nebel Lindbjerg Lummerbæk Nollund Årup Grindsted Nord Stilbjerg Bjerge Jelling Malle Grejs Grindsted Grindsted Øst Hedensted Mørup Lysholt Henne Billund Ollerup Nr Marken Bredballe BillundNord Sandegraven Barrit Horne Tistrup Skelvangen KNABBERUP Vejle Elværk Ørumgård Juelsminde Outrup Ansager Billund Syd Sydkajen Vejle Havn Ibæk Strandvej Krogager Hejnsvig Bindeballe Jerlev Ulvehaven Vinding Sdr Marken Gauerslund Karlsgårde Nybro Nordenskov Rugstedlund Gårslev Oksbøl Varde Vorbasse Egtved Præstemarken Varde Øst Agerbæk RYTTERGÅRDEN Egeskovvej Lindknud Alminde Sdr FAF VilstrupStovstrup Bredstrupvej Treldevej Oksby Årre LANDERUPGÅRD Børup Søbjerg Glejbjerg Oldenborggade Bække Erritsø Sandal Jegsmark Tobøl Lilballe Taulov Vr Nebel Endrup BRAMDRUP Snoghøj Brøndumdam Edelsborg Gejsing Højrup SVS Sædding Hedelund Surhave HarteBrogård Vibevej Nygårdsvej Bramminge Gørding Holsted Syd Svineryggen Tjæreborg Vejen Vest Brørup ANDST Ålegård Vejen Vonsild Estrupvej Bramminge Øst Askov Nagbøl Føvling Sdr Bjert Rindby Vamdrup Lykkegård Skodborg Skudstrup Kongeå Åstorp Gredstedbro Rømø Ribe Nord Ribe Centrum Hviding Brøns Åved Skærbæk Øst Skærbæk Syd Ribe Frifelt Hjortvad Brøstrup Rødding Syd Sønder Hygum Jels Revsø Sommersted Christiansfeld Fjelstrup 60kV Gosmer Lerdrup Gram Thomashus NustrupJegerup Vojens Øst Spandet Haderslev Magstrup Vest Vojens Nord Hammelev Åstrupbro Øsby Haderslev Øst Vojens Vest Vandling Langkær Hejsager Tislund BevtoftOver Jerstal Toftlund Hoptrup Grid Hyrup connected import/export control Nr Løgum Rødding Nord Agerskov Tyrstrup Emergency transfer to island operation Løjt Rødekro Brunde Vest Rise-Hjarup Ballum Hellevad Åbenrå Nord Bredebro Løgumkloster Mårbæk Rødekro Øst Vennelyst SøstÅbenrå Vest Nordborg Åbenråværket Havnbjerg Rejsby Hede Åbenrå Syd Danfoss Hjordkær Visby Blåkrog Kassø Enstedværket Hardeshøj Varnæs Mjels Lunden Lundsbjerg Ballebro Bolderslev Stevning Abild Bredevad Guderup Felsted Blans Højer Lendemark Rosinfelt Tved Tønder Nord Islanded Lund wind only Tinglev Nord Avnbøl operation Asserballe Tønder Vest Jejsing Kliplev Kværs QSØAugustenborg Bro Vester Sottrup Tønder Øst Tinglev Syd Mjang Alnor Egernsund Ragebøl Broager Nord Bajstrup Gråsten Rens Øster Gejl Sønderborg Tandslet Rojumvej Sarup Kastanie Allé Broager Syd Time (~20 min) We believe we have successfully demonstrated the first utility-scale Smart Grid concept worldwide Bov Kruså Frøslev Padborg Stadtwerke Uw-Nord 8th Kort International & matrikelstyrelsen (G. Workshop 17-01) Copyright"Large-Scale Integration of WP into PS..." 14. October A. Orths 10/19

6 Current Construction Sites 1/2 Identification and definition of transmission needs based on - power & transmission adequacy - system security - market demands Technological risk evaluation: - new technology: meshed DC-grid for large-scale offshore parks - technical feasibility of multi terminal technology Control and protection of systems with high share of HVAC and/or HVDC cables Development of standards & technology plug & play Grid codes and rules concerning ancillary services 14. October A. Orths 11/19 Current Construction Sites 2/2 Definition of Responsibilities: - Who owns and operates an offshore grid? - Who decides for building an Offshore Grid Master Plan? - Who takes the economic risk of starting the implementation Cost and Benefit today's practice becomes unsuitable Adequate socio-economic based models and methods have further to be developed (robust scenarios needed) Coordination/ harmonization of authorization procedures Evaluation of support schemes and legal frameworks with respect to functioning of the market Coordination needed: Creation of political and regulatory framework by respective ministries, regulators and TSOs necessary 14. October A. Orths 12/19

7 Planning Regimes Deterministic Planning - simple and well-established: (N-1) etc. - but does not include economic optimization of costs and benefits Probabilistic Approach - provides basis for consistent analysis regarding system adequacy - provides basis for economic optimal transmission planning by including security of supply and market benefits - problem with rare and extreme events regarding system security Research - tools for analyzing probability of system failures/ blackouts of large and complex power systems 14. October A. Orths 13/19 The TSOs Planning Challenges: Planning under Uncertainty Power [MW] EPNS Energy MWh Multi area Security Analysis of Large Scale Electric Power Systems (MAPS model calculations) Reliability Indices calculated per area/country and for the system: LOLP (Loss of Load Probability) EUE EPNS (Expected Power Not Served) EUE (Expected Unserved Energy) ~ LOLP [hours] 14. October A. Orths 14/19

8 Security of Supply SI 100 SI SI = Security Index 14. October A. Orths 15/19 The TSOs Planning Challenges: Suitable Methods Scenarios for Robustness Tests Traditional method: Traditionally: Long-term investment decisions are based on a cost-benefit analysis (business case) relying on single forecasts of electricity & heat consumption etc. Target: Different possible consistent descriptions of the future (scenarios) span a vector space for future feasible states. The robustness of our solutions for the future are tested in the scenarios. Environment high priority national focus, environment: high priority international focus, environment: high priority Scenario 4 Primarily national focus national focus, environment: low priority international focus, environment: low priority Primarily international focus Scenario Scenario 3 Environment lower priority Scenario October A. Orths 16/19

9 Summary 1/2 To develop a robust & long term electricity infrastructure, which at any time supports - desired security of supply - functionality of electricity markets - environmental aspects the TSOs have to evaluate: - adequacy of ressources (production capacity/ transmission capacity) in relation to demand and - operational security (measure for system characterizing to withstand disturbances/ interfering actions..). 14. October A. Orths 17/19 Summary 2/2 Due to change of energy resources ( RE + ) the grid and rules around it are undergoing substantial changes: - transnational DC Grid / Smartgrid discussions - allocation of ancillary services TSOs have to embrace the full range from ms to years ahead Construction Sites including regulatory/ legal/ technical issues have to be identified and removed Planning methods have to be adapted towards more probabilitstic approaches defining scenarios for the future which give room to changes of paradigm, but anyhow guarantee robust solutions. 14. October A. Orths 18/19

10 Thank you! Horns Rev 14. October A. Orths 19/19