Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer. Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring

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1 2. november 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus. Dagens klart vigtigste nøgletal er ISM industriaktivitetsindekset fra USA. Indekset er især vigtigt i forhold til spørgsmålet om, hvorvidt Federal Reserve vælger at hæve renten i år. En overvægt af økonomerne venter, at ISMindekset for fremstillingssektoren vil falde til under 50 i oktober. Dermed er det første gang at virksomhederne peger på aktivitetstilbagegang siden Argumentet er sandsynligvis effekten af svagere global efterspørgsel samt den stærkere USD. Vi er dog ikke helt så sikre, og mener der plads til en lille stigning hjulpet af den indenlandske aktivitet, herunder bilsektoren. Andre industribarometre har peget lidt i forskellig retning, herunder er Markit s indeks og de regionale indeks fra Richmond og Chicago steget, mens de tilsvarende indeks fra New York Fed og Philadelphia Fed s er faldet markant. Endelig viser de globale finansielle betingelser ikke samme forværring i afsætningsmulighederne i udlandet, som ISM allerede har afspejlet med det seneste store fald (se figur). Vi får også fremstillings-pmi fra Markit for fx Sverige, Norge og Storbritannien i dag, mens tallet for euroområdet er det endelige tal, som sjældent afviger meget fra flash-estimatet. Ugens topnøgletal er selvfølgelig arbejdsmarkedsrapporten fra USA fredag, som er endnu vigtigere for Federal Reserves beslutninger end ISM. Vi forventer, at beskæftigelsen vil komme op i tempo igen med en stigning på omkring personer op fra de skuffende personer i september. Der er rentemøder i Bank of England og Norges Bank torsdag. USA: Finansielle betingelser ikke faldet lige så meget som ISM Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Der var små aktiekursstigninger i Europa i fredags, mens de amerikanske børser endte i minus efter fald i den sene handel. Asiatiske børser ligger i minus her til morgen. Obligationsrenterne lå nogenlunde fladt fredag, og EUR styrkedes lidt over for USD. Kina: PMI for fremstillingssektoren fra Markit steg til 48,3 i oktober fra 47,2 i september. Stigningen var større end ventet og den største stigning siden foråret Fremgangen er blandt andet drevet af større efterspørgsel fra resten af verden efter kinesiske varer, da underindekset for nye eksportordrer steg markant fra 44,6 til 50,7. Trods den pæne fremgang ligger Markits fremstillings- PMI dog stadig under den vigtige tærskelværdi på 50, og den officielle PMIindikator var uændret 49,8 i oktober. Sidstnævnte var lidt skuffende, da der var ventet en lille fremgang også i det officielle PMI-indeks, men det peger dog på stabilisering frem for fortsat tilbagegang. Stabiliseringen af det ene fremstillings- PMI og den pæne fremgang i det andet PMI, er på linje med vores vurdering om, at frygten for et umiddelbart kollaps af Kinas økonomi er overdreven på trods af de mange risikofaktorer for økonomien på lidt længere sigt. Således venter vi, at BNP-væksten vil stige i 4. kvartal, hvilket vil være den første vækststigning i 1½ år. USA: Fed s Lacker udtalte fredag, at det er på tide at rentepolitikken rettes ind efter økonomiens tilstand historisk og fremover. Lacker ville gerne have haft en renteforhøjelse på det seneste møde. PCE-Core inflationen var 1,3% y/y i september, uændret fra august. Der var ventet en stigning. Employment Cost indekset for 3. kvartal bød ikke på nogen overraskelser, og burde derfor ikke give Fed yderligere anledning til at hæve renten i december. Chicago-PMI steg til hele 56,2 i oktober fra 48,7 i september. Der var kun ventet en lille fremgang. Indekset er dog noget mere volatilt end fx ISM for hele USA, og fx faldt indekset næsten ligeså meget for en måned siden. Euroområdet: Inflationen steg til 0,0% y/y i oktober fra -0,1% y/y i september. Stigningen skyldtes delvist bortfald af effekten fra det store olieprisfald sidste år, men kerneinflationen steg også med 0,1 procentpoint til 0,9% y/y. Da effekten fra sidste års energiprisfald falder yderligere bort i de kommende tre måneder, vil inflationen tiltage yderligere og komme pænt op på den rigtige side af nul. Sammen med en ny uventet stigning i EU s ESI-konjunkturbarometer samt uventet fald i arbejdsløsheden kan det tage lidt af presset fra ECB, så måske Draghi og co. ikke kører det helt store lempelsesskyts i stilling til decembermødet, selvom man så godt som har lovet at komme med nye tiltag her. Ledigheden faldt mere end ventet til 10,8% i september. Der var ventet 11,0%. Augusttallet blev nedrevideret til 10,9%. Kina: Markant fremgang i Markits PMI Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 2. november 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP -0,13% / indeks 973,70) endte stort set uændret på ugens sidste handelsdag og dermed tog investorerne noget gevinst hjem forud for weekenden. I bunden af indekset endte GN Store Nord (- 5,64% / kurs 123,70) efter selskabet fremlægde et regnskab for 3. kvartal der ikke kunne leve op til forventningerne. Således er der fortsat ikke kommet en vending i Netcom divisionen, hvilket medførte, at GN præciserede deres forventninger i nedadgående retning til hele Det betød, at investorerne sendte aktien til tælling. I den anden ende af indekset endte Danske Bank (+2,81% / kurs 186,50) efter et nordisk finanshus hæve anbefalingen på aktien. A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+0,70% / kurs ,00) endte også højere efter offentliggørelsen af fredagens fragtrater, som viste en stigning på hele 41,15% til indeks 759. Renter Efter de relativt store rentestigninger torsdag i kølvandet på Fed-mdet onsdag aften og relativt stærke nøgletal, lå obligationsrenterne stort set fladt fredag både i USA og i Tyskland og Danmark. De faldt godt nok lidt først på dagen, men steg igen om eftermiddagen. Slutresultatet blev små fald. I euroområdets steg inflationen til 0,0% y/y i oktober fra -0,1% y/y i september. Stigningen skyldtes delvist bortfald af effekten fra det store olieprisfald sidste år, men kerneinflationen steg også med 0,1 procentpoint til 0,9% y/y. I USA udtalte Fed s Lacker fredag, at det er på tide at rentepolitikken rettes ind efter økonomiens tilstand historisk og fremover. Lacker hører til i strammerlejren hos FOMC, og ville gerne have haft en renteforhøjelse på det seneste møde. PCE-kerneinflationen kom ud svagere end ventet. Valuta EUR styrkedes lidt fredag over for USD fredag, måske fordi amerikansk PCE kerneinflation var lidt svagere end ventet. Nøgletallene var dog blandende. Her til morgen ligger EUR/USD fladt. GBP styrkedes markant overfor både USD og EUR fredag uden egentlig årsag. Markedet spekulerer tilsyneladende i at Bank of England snarligt vil hæve renten. TRY er her til morgen styrket med over 4 procent over for EUR. Det sker efter den siddende præsident Erdogans AK parti har vundet en klar sejr ved gårsdagens parlamentsvalg. Partiet tabte flertallet ved valget i juni, og siden har Tyrkiet ligget i politisk dødvande, idet ingen har kunnet danne regering. Elimineringen af denne usikkerhed er blevet taget positivt op på valutamarkedet. CNY styrkedes med omkring en halv procent over for USD fredag til det stærkeste niveau siden devalueringen i august. I dag mandag har centralbanken så fulgt med og ladet den udmeldte referencekurs styrkes nogenlunde tilsvarende. Spotkursen er dog svækket lidt her til morgen. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 2. november 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 03/11/15 TDC 3. kvartal 03/11/15 Genmab 3. kvartal 03/11/15 Coloplast 4. kvartal 03/11/15 Bavarian 3. kvartal 04/11/15 Lundbeck 3. kvartal 05/11/15 North Media 3. kvartal 05/11/15 Vestas 3. kvartal 05/11/15 Zealand Pharma 3. kvartal 06/11/15 A.P. Møller-Mærsk 3. kvartal 06/11/15 SimCorp 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 02/11/15 02:35 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Oct F /11/15 02:45 Kina Caixin China PMI Mfg Oct /11/15 08:30 Sverige Swedbank/Silf PMI Manufacturing Oct /11/15 09:00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Oct /11/15 09:30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Oct /11/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct F /11/15 10:30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Oct /11/15 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Oct F /11/15 16:00 USA Construction Spending MoM Sep 0.5% % 02/11/15 16:00 USA ISM Manufacturing Oct /11/15 18:00 USA Fed's Williams speaks 03/11/15 10:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Oct /11/15 16:00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Oct /11/15 16:00 USA Factory Orders Sep -0.9% % 03/11/15 20:00 EMU ECB's Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt 03/11/15 /2015 USA Wards Total Vehicle Sales Oct 17.80m m 03/11/15 /2015 EMU EU's Moscovici Meets Greek Officials in Athens Nov /11/15 02:45 Kina Caixin China PMI Services Oct /11/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Oct F /11/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Oct F /11/15 10:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Oct /11/15 11:00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Sep -0.5%/-3.3% %/-2.6% 04/11/15 11:30 USA Fed's Brainard Speak 04/11/15 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications Oct % 04/11/15 14:15 USA ADP Employment Change Oct 180k k 04/11/15 14:30 USA Trade Balance Sep -$44.50b -- -$48.33b 04/11/15 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Oct F /11/15 16:00 USA Fed's Yellen Testifies on Bank Regulation 04/11/15 16:00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Oct /11/15 20:30 USA Fed's Dudley Speaks on Economy 04/11/15 /2015 Japan Consumer Confidence Index Oct /11/15 00:50 Japan BOJ Minutes for Oct. 6-7 Meeting 05/11/15 01:30 USA Fed Vice Chair Fischer Speaks 05/11/15 08:00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Sep 1%/1.8% %/1.9% 05/11/15 09:15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Oct 0%/-1.4% 0%/-1.4% 0.1%/-1.4% 05/11/15 09:30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Sep %/3.8% 05/11/15 09:30 Tyskland Markit Germany Construction PMI Oct /11/15 10:00 Norge Deposit Rates 05. Nov % 0.75% 05/11/15 10:10 EMU Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Oct /11/15 11:00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep %/2.3% 05/11/15 11:00 EMU European Commission Economic Forecasts 05/11/15 13:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Nov 375b 375b 375b 05/11/15 13:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 05. Nov 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 05/11/15 13:00 UK Bank of England Inflation Report 05/11/15 13:30 USA Challenger Job Cuts YoY Oct % 05/11/15 14:30 USA Dudley, Lagarde, Fischer Speaks 05/11/15 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims Oct k 05/11/15 14:30 USA Unit Labor Costs 3Q P 2.2% % 05/11/15 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 01. Nov /11/15 19:30 USA Fed's Lockhart Speaks 06/11/15 08:00 Tyskland Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.5%/1.1% %/2.3% 06/11/15 09:00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves Oct b 06/11/15 09:00 Danmark Industrial Production MoM Sep % 2.7% 06/11/15 09:30 Sverige Average House Prices Oct m 06/11/15 10:00 Norge Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Sep %/3.1% 06/11/15 10:30 UK Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Sep -0.1%/1.3% -- 1%/1.9% 06/11/15 14:30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 180k 195K 142k 06/11/15 14:30 USA Unemployment Rate Oct 5.1% 5.2% 5.1% 06/11/15 14:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.2%/2.3% -- 0%/2.2% Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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