Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Danmark 14. juni 2013

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1 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Danmark 14. juni 2013 Vigtigste begivenheder Markederne: Pæne stigninger på aktiemarkederne herunder også i Asien, hvor Nikkei er oppe med næsten 3%. Ikke de helt store bevægelser på obligationsmarkederne, med de lange renter en anelse lavere. Også en næsten uændret EUR/USD mens USD forsigtigt genoptager styrkelse overfor JPY. USA: Detailsalget stærkere end ventet drevet af især stigende bilsalg. Kontrolgruppesalget stiger som ventet med 0,3%. Antal nytilmeldte ledige falder mere end ventet. ECB: Weidmann understreger, at lave renter udgør en langsigtet risiko og at alle centralbanker står overfor den svære udfordring at stramme på det rette tidspunkt. Kina: Forlydender om, at Reform og Udviklingskommissionen allerede i næste uge offentliggør foreløbig urbaniseringsplan med yderligere detaljer til efteråret. Obligationsauktion fra finansministeriet skuffer med lavere end ønsket salg for første gang i 23 måneder. Brasilien: Detailsalget skuffer markant. Dagen i dag byder først og fremmest på tal for forbrugertilliden i USA opgjort af University of Michigan samt industriproduktionen i maj. Dagens vigtigste begivenheder Dagens primære økonomiske nøgletal kommer fra USA i form af forbrugertilliden fra University of Michigan samt tal for industriproduktionen. Med hensyn til forbrugertilliden så steg den ifølge University of Michigan i maj til det højeste niveau siden juli Vi forventer dog et lille fald i juniopgørelsen som følge af, at benzinpriserne er begyndt at stige igen kombineret med, at renterne generelt er skudt i vejret på det sidste. Der er ingen tvivl om, at aktiemarkedet (foruden boligmarkedet) har haft stor betydning for en positiv formueeffekt som har løftet tilliden på det sidste, og Højdepunkter siden sidst Gårsdagen bød på lidt interessant nyt fra USA i første omgang i form af tal for detailsalget i maj. Forventningerne om et lidt hurtigere tempo i detailsalget blev mere end indfriet når man ser på headline-tallene. Salget steg med 0,6% m-o-m op fra 0,1% m-om i april og noget stærkere end den ventede stigning på 0,4%. Renset for bilsalget var stigningen 0,3% m-o-m i tråd med forventningerne. Renset for det volatile salg af biler, benzin og byggematerialer (den såkaldte kontrolgruppe som benyttes som input til nationalregnskabstallene) steg salget ganske pænt som ventet med 0,3% m-o-m, hvilket er en bedring oven på, at detailsalget i april blev nedrevideret til fremgang på 0,2% i stedet for som tidligere opgjort 0,5%. Den overordnede konklusion er, at der er tegn på at forbrugerne så småt kommer sig over årets skatteforhøjelser og hjulpet af lavere brændstofpriser, stigende aktiemarkeder og bedring på boligmarkedet så vil forbrugsvæksten kunne bidrage til BNP-væksten i 2. kvartal om end på et svagere niveau end set i 1. kvartal. University of Michigan forbrugertilliden havde peget på en fremgang idet tilliden befinder sig i det højeste niveau i knapt seks år. Ydermere modtog vi ugetallene for nye ledige på overførselsindkomst, som de seneste fire uger har holdt sig rimeligt konstant på omkring personer, og der var ikke ventet den store ændring i dette billede. Således var det en lille positiv overraskelse, at antal ledige faldt til personer sammenlignet med forventninger om en uændret opgørelse på personer. Importpriserne viste sig noget svagere end ventet med et fald på 0,6% m-o-m svarende til et årsfald på 1,9%. Dette var noget svagere end ventet, hvilket indikerer, at de forrige par måneders fald i forbrugerpriserne muligvis har luft til at fortsætte lidt endnu. USA: Tegn på rentebremse på forbrugertilliden % (omvendt akse) 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 6,5 7,0 Tiilidskrise ifm. gældsloft årig realkreditrente (Freddie Mac), lag 3M Forbrugertillid (University of Michigan) Source: Reuters EcoWin aktiekurserne er stadig højere end for en måned siden, men udviklingen er vendt lidt på det sidste med en vigende tendens, hvorfor bidraget til tillidsopgørelsen nok ikke er så stor denne gang. Endelig kommer der industriproduktionstal for maj, hvor der ventes en stort set flad produktion oven på faldet i april, der især blev drevet af fald i kraftvarme-produktionen efter vejret blev varmere. Desuden har bilsalget antydet en produktionsopjustering i bilindustrien og yderligere har ISM s produktionsindeks vist en lille bedring, hvorefter det peger på forværring igen. Rapport fra Kina indikerer, at den magtfulde Udviklings- og Reformkommission i næste måned vil offentliggøre en urbaniseringsplan med yderligere detaljer offentliggjort til efteråret. Ifølge formanden for det nationale forskningsinstitut ved Peking Universitet, Yao Yang, vil planen ikke fokusere på øgede investeringer, men i højere grad på reformer af blandt andet Hukou-systemet samt landsystemet. For første gang i 23 måneder lykkedes det ikke Finansministeriet at komme af med det ønskede antal obligationer i forbindelse med en obligationsauktion i går. Salget beløb sig til 9,53 mia. yuan, hvilket var noget lavere end det ønskede salg på 15 mia. yuan. Dette følger en svag auktion i sidste uge af Agricultural Development Bank of China, hvor et salg på 11,51 mia. yuan klart undergik det ønskede salg på 20 mia. yuan. Samtidig har der været tale om generelt højere renter på de nævnte auktioner. Fra Brasilien fik vi i går nye tegn på, at den vigtige forbrugsmotor viser svaghedstegn. Detailsalget voksede blot 0,5% m-o-m, hvilket ikke kunne leve op til forventningerne om en fremgang på 1,2% m-o-m. Den svage opgørelse trak årsvæksten ned i 1,6% fra 4,5% i marts. Det brede detailsalg (inkluderer bilsalget) steg med 9% som et udtryk for en pæn fremgang i salget af biler i april. Bilsalget krøb op til enheder det højeste niveau siden december. På trods af massiv stimulans rettet mod netop privatforbruget, så er der altså fortsat svaghedstegn, hvilket delvist skal tilskrives den fortsat høje inflation, der har lagt en dæmper på forbrugertilliden, samt en naturlig følge af den relativt høje kreditvækst vi har set i efterhånden en del år. Beskæftigelsesfremgangen er også bremset noget op i løbet af Det seneste tiltag som er blevet annonceret er subsidier til kredit til lavindkomstfamilier ved køb af hårde hvidevarer og møbler for i alt 8,7 mia. USD Indeks Analytikere: Jes Asmussen, , jeas01@handelsbanken.dk, Rasmus Gudum, , ragu02@handelsbanken.dk, Thomas Haugaard, , thje01@handelsbanken.dk Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale.

2 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,05% / indeks 563,18) og OMXC (- 0,33% / indeks 432,91) endte begge stort set uændret og fik dermed indhentet noget af morgendagens fald i dagens handel i takt med, at en række økonomiske nøgletal fra USA var bedre end ventet. I bunden af indekset endte GN Store Nord (-1,89% / kurs 104,00) fortsatte de yo-yo lignende kursudsving og tabte gårsdagens indhentede i dagens handel. Lundbeck (-0,77% / kurs 103,40) endte også lavere efter et nordisk finanshus var ude og sænke kursmålet på aktien. Novo Nordisk (-0,53% / kurs 932,50) endte i negativt terræn efter et nordisk finanshus var ude og sænke deres kursmål på aktien. Nordea (- 0,15% / kurs 67,10) var i modvind efter banken sent onsdag aften meddelte, at de har solgt deres polske aktiviteter til PKO Bank Polski for 5,17 mia. kr., som et led i bestræbelserne på at nå sine finansielle mål. Vestas (-0,07% / kurs 72,00) endte stort set uændret på trods af, at vindmølleproducenten offentliggjorde en pæn ordre til Kroatien på levering af 14 V90-3,0 MW vindmøller. I den anden ende af indekset endte FLSmidth (+1,10% / kurs 266,50) efter tre dage med kursfald. Renter Obligationsrenterne vendte i går pilen en anelse nedad til trods for generelt stærkere end ventede økonomiske nøgletal fra USA. Således steg det totale detailsalg mere end ventet, mens detailsalget renset for volatile salgskomponenter kom ud som ventet med en pæn stigning. Også arbejdsmarkedet bød på lidt positivt nyt i form af et fald i antal nytilmeldte ledige til personer sammenlignet med forventninger om en uændret opgørelse på personer. Med til at lægge en dæmper på de amerikanske renter var til gengæld en noget svagere end ventet opgørelse for importpriserne, der viste et fald på hele 0,7% m-o-m svarende til et årsfald på 2,7%. De europæiske renter trak ned som følge af forsinket reaktion på det tidligere fald i Nikkei, men holdt sig derefter nogenlunde fladt over det meste af dagen. EUR er blot en anelse svagere overfor USD siden i går efter, at EUR startede på bagbenene fra morgenstunden. Stemningen vendte dog i løbet af dagen i takt med en bedre stemning på aktiemarkederne, hvilket trak EUR stærkere overfor USD. USD fik dog i løbet af dagen til hjælp fra nøgletalsfronten i form af et stærkere detailsalg end ventet samt et større fald i antal nytilmeldte ledige end ventet. Der var ikke nævneværdige nyheder fra Europa til at drive markederne. Efter den seneste tids styrkelse af JPY overfor USD så bød gårsdagen på en ny svækkelse af JPY.. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Aktier Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY Stoxx EUR/USD FTSE EUR/DKK S&P USD/DKK Nasdaq SEK/DKK Brasil NOK/DKK Hang Seng CHF/DKK Nikkei GBP/DKK årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring USA CRB EUR Brent oil (1Mf) DKK Gold (spot) Pengemarkedsrenter EURIBOR3M 0.21 CHF3M 0.02 CIBOR3M 0.26 EURIBOR6M 0.32 CHF6M 0.08 CIBOR6M 0.49 Alle tal er opgjort kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag kl. 7:30 Svagere vækst end ECB aktuelt forventer kombineret med en gældskrise, der stadig har potentialet til at blusse op betyder, at vi fortsat forventer nye lempelsestiltag fra ECB. Den seneste styrkelse af DKK betyder, at Nationalbanken forventes at ville følge ECB med ned på renten, men ikke i samme omfang. Federal Reserve ventes ikke at udvide sin pengepolitiske stimulansindsats yderligere, men aktuelt venter vi ikke neddrosling af de igangværende stimulanstiltag. EUR ses at være under pres fra en relativ svag økonomi samt den fortsatte usikkerhed i forbindelse med gældskrisen kombineret med muligheden for yderligere lempelser af pengepolitikken. Så vi venter en svagere EUR over for USD over de kommende 12 måneder, hvor den relativt mindre lempelige pengepolitik i euroområdet i forhold til USA dog udgør en risiko på opsiden for EUR/USD. Risikoen for en stærkere NOK er stadig til stede. Det langsigtede potentiale for en stærkere SEK ser ud til at være begrænset, og vi ser pt. mulighed for endnu en rentesænknig fra Riksbanken. Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK juni

3 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 12/06/13 SAS AB 2. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 10/06/13 01:50 Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 1Q F 0.9% % 1.0% 10/06/13 01:50 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis Apr B B B 10/06/13 07:00 Japan Consumer Confidence May /06/13 07:45 Schweiz Unemployment Rate (sa) May 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 10/06/13 08:45 Frankrig Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.3%/-4.0% %/-2.1%(r) 2.2%/-0.5% 10/06/13 09:00 Danmark Trade Bal. X Ship sa (Kroner) Apr 4.8B 5.0B 4.4B 7.8B 10/06/13 09:00 Danmark Current Account (Kroner) Apr 4.8B 4.8B 0.4B(r) 9.8B 10/06/13 09:00 Danmark CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) May 0.1%/0.5% 0.1%/0.5% -0.3%/0.4% 0.2%/0.6% 10/06/13 09:00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) May 0.1%/0.9% 0.1%/0.9% -0.2%/0.8% 0.1%/0.9% 10/06/13 09:30 Sverige Industrial Prod. (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.3%/0.7% 0.3%0.8% 0.6%/-0.1%(r) -0.5%/-0.8% 10/06/13 10:00 Norge CPI (MoM/YoY) May -0.1%/1.8% -0.3%/1.6% 0.6%/1.9% 0.1%/2.0% 10/06/13 10:00 Norge CPI Underlying (MoM/YoY) May 0.0%/1.1% 0.0%/1.0% 0.6%/1.5% 0.3%/1.4% 10/06/13 10:30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Jun /06/13 15:50 USA Fed's Bullard to Speak /06/13 01:01 UK RICS House Price Balance May 3% -- 1% 5% 11/06/13 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement 11/06/13 09:30 Sverige CPI - Headline Rate (MoM/YoY) May 0.1%/-0.3% 0.1%/-0.3% -0.2%/-0.5% 0.2%/-0.2% 11/06/13 09:30 Sverige SW CPI - CPIF (MoM/YoY) May 0.1%/0.7% 0.1%/0.7% -0.2%/0.5% 0.2%/0.7% 11/06/13 10:30 UK Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.0%/-0.6% %/-1.4% 0.1%/-0.6% 11/06/13 13:30 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism May /06/13 16:00 UK NIESR GDP Estimate May %(r) 0.6% 12/06/13 01:50 Japan Machine Orders (MoM/YoY) Apr -8.1%/-4.3% %/2.4% -8.8%/-1.1% 12/06/13 08:00 Tyskland Consumer Price Index (MoM/YoY) May F 0.4%/1.5% %/1.5% 0.4%/1.5% 12/06/13 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Price Index (MoM/YoY) May 0.1%/0.9% %/0.7% 0.1%/0.8% 12/06/13 10:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) Apr 7.8% % 7.8% 12/06/13 11:00 EMU Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.0%/-1.2% 0.5%/- 0.9%/-1.4%(r) 0.4%/-0.6% 12/06/13 15:00 USA IMF Issues Review of Portugal Financial Support Plan /06/13 20:00 USA Monthly Budget Statement May -$139.0B -- -$124.6B -$138.7B 13/06/13 09:30 Sverige Average House Prices (SEK) May M 2.104M 13/06/13 14:30 USA Advance Retail Sales (MoM) May 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 13/06/13 14:30 USA Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (MoM) May 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 13/06/13 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 07. Jun 346K K 334K 13/06/13 14:30 USA Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) May 0.0%/-1.4% %/-2.7% -0.6%/-1.9% 13/06/13 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 09. Jun /06/13 11:00 EMU Euro-Zone CPI (MoM/YoY) May 0.1%/1.4% %/1.2% 14/06/13 11:00 EMU Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) May F 1.2% %(r) 14/06/13 14:30 USA Producer Price Index (MoM/YoY) May 0.1%/1.4% %/0.6% 14/06/13 14:30 USA PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM/YoY) May 0.1%/1.7% %/1.7% 14/06/13 15:15 USA Industrial Production (MoM) May 0.2% 0.0% -0.5% 14/06/13 15:55 USA U. of Michigan Confidence Jun P Kina Actual FDI (YoY) May % 14. juni

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