Central Arizona Project

Transkript

1 Central Arizona Project Water Orders and Excess Supply for CAP Supply Losses 50,000 af 2.8 MAF CAP Delivery Supply 1,575,000 af On-River 1,225,000 af Ag Excess Supply 832,000 af Indian 9,000 af Long- 206,000 af Term M&I 693,000 af 478,000 af CAP Colorado River 1

2 2009 Excess CAP Orders exceed supply by 169,800 af AWBA & CAGRD RR 195,900 af Subject to Reduction Excess Supply 832,000 af Full Cost 61,200 af Incentive Recharge 344,700 af Ag Settlement Pool 400,000 af Fully Protected Supply Orders 2009 Excess Orders 18 Incentive customers 6 26k 2 6 Incentive Recharge, AWBA and CAGRD RR Orders (PIN) 5 2

3 2009 Excess Orders If AWBA & RR are eliminated Uneven impacts 10k Ag Pricing Program 26k 6 5 Recovery agreements Operational & economic impacts AWBA and CAGRD RR Orders set to zero 2 4 (PIN) 6k AWBA commitments Indian Firming 2009 Orders #1 Original Orders 14 70k M&I Subcontracts 480,000 - Indian Contracts 191,000 = Excess Supply 854,000 (PIN) - Ag Settlement Pool* 400,000 - Other Excess Order 688,400 = Excess "Deficit" 234,400 3

4 AWBA & 0% #2 AWBA & CAGRD Replenishment Reserve to Zero 10k k 4 (PIN) 6k 3 - M&I Subcontracts 480, Indian Contracts 191,000 = Excess Supply 854,000 - Ag Settlement Pool* 400,000 - Other Excess Order 492,724 = Excess "Deficit" 38,724 AWBA & 0% #2 AWBA & CAGRD Replenishment Reserve to Zero 2 Recovery agreements 1 5 Still leaves KAF deficit Uneven impacts 10k Ag Pricing Program (PIN) 6k 3 Operational & economic impacts 2 - M&I Subcontracts 480,000 - Indian Contracts 191,000 = Excess Supply AWBA 854,000 commitments - Ag Settlement Pool* 400,000 - Other Excess Order 492,724 Indian Firming = Excess "Deficit" 38, k 4

5 Protect AWBA GSF & Indian #1 #2 #8 Original AWBA {not defined} & Orders CAGRD Replenishment Reserve to Zero 10k k k 4 - M&I Subcontracts 480,000 (PIN) 6k Indian Contracts 191,000 = Excess Supply 854,000 - Ag Settlement Pool* 400,000 - Other Excess Order 492, , ,400 = Excess "Deficit" 163, ,400 38,724 Full Cost vs. Incentive Full Cost Excess Energy 1 = $45 Fixed OM&R = $63 Capital Charge = $18 Total = $126/AF Incentive Recharge Energy 2 = $70 10% Fixed OM&R = $6 Lost Federal Rev. = $5 Total = $82/AF 5

6 Full Cost vs. Incentive Incentive Recharge Get water off CO River Store for long-term Full Cost Must earn long-term credit More flexible de facto priority between Full Cost & Incentive Recharge Annual recharge, replenishment, small direct use, etc. Potential Reduction Strategies Prorate Cap on volume Auction Preference USF or GSF Prioritize by contract date Bench against historic use Preference subcontractors Preference non-subcontractors Apportion by AMA or county Et cetera 6

7 Prorated #1 #9 Original ProratedOrders k 4 106k k k 18k k 25k 26k 7 - M&I Subcontracts 480,000 (PIN) 5k 2 38k - Indian Contracts 191,000 = Excess Supply 854,000 - Ag Settlement Pool* 400,000 - Other Excess Order 456, ,400 = Excess "Deficit" 234,400 2,950 Preference #1 #7 Original Preference Orders 106k 14 38k 70k 3 48k 16k k - M&I Subcontracts 480,000 (PIN) 6k Indian Contracts 191,000 = Excess Supply 854,000 - Ag Settlement Pool* 400,000 - Other Excess Order 440, ,400 = Excess "Surplus" "Deficit" 234,400 13,880 7

8 Historic Mean #10 Original Historic Mean Orders k k 6 - M&I Subcontracts 480,000 (PIN) 5k 16k 4 - Indian Contracts 191,000 = Excess Supply 854,000 - Ag Settlement Pool* 400,000 - Other Excess Order 368, ,400 = Excess "Surplus" "Deficit" 234,400 85,115 8