Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 27. februar 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus I løbet af formiddagen tikker tal for forbrugerprisinflationen for de enkelte tyske delstater ind, og kl. 14 offentliggøres så hele Tysklands inflation for februar. Den seneste mindre stigning i olieprisen ventes at blive omsat i en lille stigning i forbrugerprisinflationen til -0,3% y/y op fra -0,4% y/y i januar. Dermed er der tale om den første stigning i inflationsraten i otte måneder, og spørgsmålet er om ikke det markerer en bund for inflationen i denne omgang? Det vil dog stadig tage nogle måneder endnu førend man skal tro på at inflationen vender tilbage til positive takter, forudsat at oliepriserne ikke tager et nyt dyk. Fra USA kommer tal for det verserende boligsalg i januar, hvor der ventes en stigning som afspejler, at den seneste nedgang nok ikke vil vare ved, hjulpet af især lavere renter og beskæftigelsesfremgang. Der vil nok også være en smule fokus på revideringen af BNP-tallene for 4. kvartal. Den første opgørelse viste sig fra en skuffende side med en annualiseret kvartalvækst på blot 2,6%, ned fra 5,0% i 3. kvartal. Der ventes imidlertid en nedrevidering af tallene til en vækst på omkring 2,0%, hvilket især skyldes, at vi siden har modtaget lidt skuffende data for privatforbruget og handelsunderskuddet. Danmarks Statistik offentliggør i dag foreløbige BNP-tal for 4. kvartal, hvor vi venter, at den positive vækst fra kvartalet før vil blive afløst af tilbagegang i den økonomiske aktivitet. Problemet med BNP-tallene er imidlertid, at underkomponenterne ikke summer til det overordnede BNP-tal, hvilket kan skabe lidt forvirring om hvor dansk økonomi egentlig står henne. Dette var netop også situationen i 3. kvartal, hvor det var svært at forklare hvor væksten på 0,4% q/q egentlig kom fra, idet de fleste under-komponenter udviklede sig svagt. I 4. kvartal venter vi det modsatte, hvor det underliggende billede vil være relativt positivt, men at BNP-væksten alligevel vil ende på -0,25% q/q. USA: Seneste måneders boligtilbagegang slut? Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiekursstigninger generelt i Europa, men fladt i USA. Lange tyske statsrenter nogenlunde fladt men amerikanske op. USD stærkere. Japan: Inflationen var uændret 2,4% y/y i januar, men Bank of Japans foretrukne mål, inflationen renset for prisstigninger på ferske fødevarer, faldt mere end ventet til 2,2% y/y fra 2,5% i december. Og havde det ikke været for momsforhøjelsen sidste år, ville inflationen ligge tæt på nul. Ledigheden steg overraskende til 3,6% i februar fra 3,4% i januar. Dagens nøgletal lægger ekstra pres på Bank of Japan for at komme med flere kvantitative lempelser. USA: Forbrugerpriserne faldt med 0,7% m/m i januar svarende til -0,1% y/y på linje med konsensus. Hermed er inflationen nu også negativ i USA, men kun pga. energiprisfald. Således var kerneinflationen uændret 1,6% y/y på baggrund af en større månedlig stigning end ventet. Ordreindgangen på varige goder i januar gik med 2,8% m/m noget mere frem end ventet oven på det skuffende store fald i december, som medvirkede til den markante opbremsning vi så i investeringsvæksten i 4. kvartals BNP-tal. Ser man imidlertid på kerneordrerne, som bl.a. ekskluderer den volatile transportkomponent (fx flyordrer), var fremgangen i januar kun en anelse større end ventet. Fed s Bullard udtalte i går, at FOMC på martsmødet bør fjerne henvisningen til at man er tålmodig for at skabe fleksibilitet til at kunne hæve renten på junimødet. Euroområdet: EU-Kommissionens konjunkturbarometer steg fra 101,4 til 102,1 på linje med konsensusestimatet. Fremgangen var primært drevet af øget forbrugertillid (et tal, som allerede var offentliggjort), mens industritilliden kun steg meget lidt. ESI peger fortsat på positiv, men yderst moderat vækst i euroområdet. Tal for bankernes udlån blev også offentliggjort i går, men det blev heller ikke i januar, at årsvækstraten i kreditgivningen til euroområdets husholdninger og ikke-finansielle virksomheder blev positiv. Men der er tydelig fremgang at spore, og den stigende tendens bør modtage yderligere støtte fremadrettet af de lancerede ukonventionelle pengepolitiske tiltag med opkøb af obligationer som omdrejningspunkt. Efter tidligere standarder har en vending i kreditvækstudviklingen været forenelig med at en mere stram pengepolitik vil være ECB s næste træk (se figur). Givet det lave niveau for kreditvæksten, skal vi dog nok spejde noget ud i fremtiden denne gang. Tyskland: Ledigheden faldt igen i februar, dog ikke nok til at ledighedsraten (sæsonkorrigeret) faldt. Den forblev således uændret på 6,5% men det ændrer ikke på billedet af et stærkt tysk arbejdsmarked. Danmark: De danske konjunkturbarometre fortsætter med at tegne et noget nedtrykt billede af de kortsigede vækstudsigter. Industrisektoren skuffer således igen, hvor konjunkturbarometret endte uændret på -13 i februar. Dermed er der ikke tegn på, at de lidt mere gunstige signaler vi har fået fra flere af vores samhandelspartnere har sat sig spor i aktiviteten endnu, også afspejlet i den stadig meget negative vurdering af ordrebeholdningen. Servicesektoren skuffede dog også med et lille fald fra 8 til 7, om end den svagt stigende tendens over det seneste år stadig er intakt. Specielt finans- og transportsektoren er med til at holde barometret nede. Et lyspunkt var dog byggesektoren, hvor vi så en stigning i barometret fra -15 til -12, hvor positive forventninger til beskæftigelsen var med til at trække op. Samlet peger barometrene dog som nævnt fortsat på stagnation i dansk økonomi i begyndelsen af 2015, men vi mener dog at signalet fra aktivitetsindikatorerne kan være lidt for negative i forhold til den faktiske udvikling. EMU: Så er kreditvæksten y/y næsten positiv Danmark: Dystre konjunkturbarometre For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 27. februar 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,98% / indeks 931,16) endte positivt territorium og satte desuden en ny kursrekord for trettende gang i år. Blandt dagens højdespringere var Carlsberg (+2,78% / kurs 554,50) der fik medvind af, at både det Ukrainske forsvarsministerium og de prorussiske separatister i løbet af dagen bekræftede, at begge parter er i gang med, at trække tunge våben tilbage fra det østlige Ukraine. Dagens højdespringer blev dog William Demant (+4,68% / kurs 525,50) der rapporterede et regnskab for 2. halvår der var bedre end ventet af markedet og desuden annoncerede en guidance for 2015 som var på niveau med markedets forventninger. Aktien fik formentligt lidt ekstra medvind i gårsdagens handel eftersom en del investorer havde frygtet et skuffende regnskab. Nordea (+1,48% / kurs 89,05) endte også højere og satte desuden kursrekord selvom der ikke var nogen selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Nordea holder dog generalforsamling den 19. marts og udbetaler efterfølgende et udbytte på 4,61 kr. per aktie (udbetales den 30. marts), hvilket en del investorerne sandsynligvis ønsker at få del af. Renter Obligationsrenterne lå nogenlunde fladt i Tyskland i går, måske fordi de kommende obligationsopkøb fra ECB opvejer, at nøgletallene faktisk kom ud til den pæne side i går. EU-Kommissionens konjunkturbarometer steg fra 101,4 til 102,1, og kreditvæksten forbedrede sig yderligere. Også tysk forbrugertillid og ledighed imponerede. De amerikanske statsrenter steg til gengæld i går i takt med spekulationer om at den første renteforhøjelse fra Fed kan komme tidligere end hidtil ventet. Det var både drevet af nøgletallene og Fed-udtalelser. Således steg kerneinflationen mere end ventet, og ordreindgangen var på overfladen stærk. Fed s Bullard udtalte, at FOMC på martsmødet bør fjerne henvisningen til at man er tålmodig for at skabe fleksibilitet til at kunne hæve renten på junimødet. Valuta USD styrkedes i går over for EUR og de fleste andre valutaer i takt med spekulationer om at den første renteforhøjelse fra Fed er rykket tættere på. Det var både drevet af nøgletallene og Fed-udtalelser. Således steg kerneinflationen mere end ventet, og ordreindgangen var på overfladen stærk. Fed s Bullard udtalte, at FOMC på martsmødet bør fjerne henvisningen til at man er tålmodig for at skabe fleksibilitet til at kunne hæve renten på junimødet. CNY svækkedes til det svageste niveau i to år over for USD. CNY har i nogle uger ligget tæt på den svage grænse i +/-2% udsvingsbåndet, hvilket indikerer svækkelsespres. Og da centralbanken i går svækkede sin referencekurs (midtpunktet i udsvingsbåndet), steg USD/CNY spotkursen. BRL fortsatte svækkelsen over for USD og er nu på det svageste niveau i ti år. I går steg ledigheden, og den svage arbejdsmarkedsudvikling føjer sig til rækken af dårligdomme i brasiliansk økonomi. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 27. februar 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 24/02/15 Jyske Bank Årsregnskab 25/02/15 A.P. Møller-Mærsk Årsregnskab 25/02/15 Alm. Brand Årsregnskab 25/02/15 DFDS Årsregnskab 26/02/15 Københavns Lufthavne Årsregnskab 26/02/15 William Demant Holding Årsregnskab 26/02/15 BankNordik Årsregnskab 27/02/15 NeuroSearch Årsregnskab 27/02/15 NKT Holding Årsregnskab 27/02/15 STYLEPIT Halvårsregnskab 27/02/15 ØK Årsregnskab Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 23/02/15 10:00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Feb /02/15 12:00 UK CBI Reported Sales Feb /02/15 14:30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Jan (r) /02/15 14:45 EMU ECB's Mersch Speaks in London 23/02/15 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales Jan 4.95M M(r) 4.82M 23/02/15 16:30 USA Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Feb /02/15 06:00 Japan Small Business Confidence Feb /02/15 08:00 Tyskland GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q F 0.7%/1.4% %/1.4% 0.7%/1.4% 24/02/15 08:45 Frankrig Business Confidence Feb /02/15 11:00 EMU CPI (MoM/YoY) Jan F -1.6%/-0.6% %/-0.6% -0.1%/-0.6% 24/02/15 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Jan F 0.6% % 0.6% 24/02/15 15:00 Belgien Business Confidence Feb /02/15 15:00 EMU ECB President Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt 24/02/15 15:00 USA S&P/CS 20 City (MoM/YyoY) Dec 0.60%/4.4% %/4.31% 0.87%/4.46% 24/02/15 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Feb P /02/15 16:00 USA Fed's Yellen Testifies to Senate Banking Panel 24/02/15 16:00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Feb (r) /02/15 16:00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Feb /02/15 02:45 Kina HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Feb P /02/15 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Feb /02/15 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications Feb % -3.5% 25/02/15 16:00 USA Fed Chair Yellen Testifies to House 25/02/15 16:00 USA New Home Sales Jan 470K K 481K 25/02/15 17:30 EMU ECB's Draghi Testifies to EP 25/02/15 18:00 Frankrig Total Jobseekers Jan K k K USA MBA Mortgage Foreclosures 4Q % 2.27% USA Mortgage Delinquencies 4Q % 5.68% 26/02/15 08:00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Mar /02/15 09:55 Tyskland Unemployment Rate Feb 6.5% % 6.5% 26/02/15 10:00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Jan 3.7% % 4.1% 26/02/15 10:30 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) 0.5%/2.7% %/2.7% 0.5%/2.7% 26/02/15 11:00 EMU Economic Confidence Feb /02/15 14:30 USA CPI (MoM/YoY) -0.6%/-0.1% %/0.1% -0.7%/-0.1% 26/02/15 14:30 USA CPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM) 0.1%/1.6% %/1.6% 0.2%/1.6% 26/02/15 14:30 USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 1.6% % 2.8% 26/02/15 14:30 USA Durables Ex Transportation -0.8% 0.3% 26/02/15 14:30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Jan 0.3% % 0.6% 26/02/15 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims Feb K K 313K 26/02/15 15:00 USA FHFA House Price Index MoM Dec 0.5% % 0.8% 26/02/15 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Feb /02/15 19:00 USA Fed's Lockhart Speaks on U.S. Outlook 27/02/15 00:30 Japan Jobless Rate Jan 3.4% % 3.60% 27/02/15 00:30 Japan Overall Household Spending YoY Jan -4.1% % -5.1% 27/02/15 00:30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Jan 2.3% % 2.20% 27/02/15 00:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jan P 2.7%/-3.1% %/0.1% 4.0%/-2.6% 27/02/15 00:50 Japan Retail Sales MoM Jan -0.4% % -1.30% 27/02/15 01:05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Feb /02/15 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.3%/1.8% %/0.5% 27/02/15 09:00 Danmark GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q P 0.0%/0.7% -0.2%/0.5% 0.4%/1.0% 27/02/15 09:00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Feb /02/15 09:30 Sverige GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q 0.5%/1.5% 0.6%/1.6% 0.3%/2.1% 27/02/15 14:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb P 0.6%/-0.3% -1.1%/-0.4% 27/02/15 14:30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q S 2.0% % 27/02/15 15:45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager Feb /02/15 16:00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Jan 2.0%/8.7% %/8.5% 27/02/15 16:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb F Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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