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1 Indeks Indeks 24. oktober 2013 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus I euroområdet modtager vi PMI-indeksene for oktober. Vi forventer, at PMI Composite-indekset vil bevæge sig sidelæns i oktober og dermed slutter seks måneders stigninger indikerende, at det økonomiske momentum ikke tager til i styrke. Det er blevet foreslået af en fladere rentekurve såvel små fald i det investorbaserede konjunkturbarometer fra Sentix (jf. figur). Vi forventer, at PMI fremstillingsindekset igen falder en smule i oktober, da vi blandt andet stadig ser en bremse fra tidligere EUR-styrkelse. PMI-service bør på den anden side stadig have et vist positivt momentum, idet ledighedsudviklingen nu synes at have nået et vendepunkt til det bedre, om end i et langsomt tempo. Fra USA modtager vi en række statistikker hvoraf vi især finder forbrugertilliden fra Bloomberg, Markits PMI-indeks, salget af nye boliger og nytilmeldte ledige interessante. Forbrugertilliden dykkede i forrige uge skarpt til det laveste niveau siden april på den politiske uro, og det bliver interessant at se i hvor høj grad løsningen i sidste uge siden er smittet positivt af. Derudover fokuserer vi på om fremstillingsindekset fra Markit fortsat vil insistere på en mere negativ udvikling i oktober. Indekset har således peget ned mens ISM lidt uventet fortsatte op i september (jf. figur). Ydermere vil der være lidt fokus på salget af nye huse i september, hvor der ventes en flad udvikling om end det seneste fald i realkreditansøgningerne har peget på at salget kan falde tilbage måske først i oktober. Derudover ventes antallet af nye ledige at falde tilbage i sidste uge efter at tekniske problemer i Californien nok gav et midlertidigt løft i forrige uge. Tallene er renset for udsvingene ifm. statsnedlukningen. Endelig ventes handelsbalanceunderskuddet stort set uændret i august. Norden: Vi har rentemøder både i Sverige og Norge. For begge gælder at der ikke forventes nogen ændringer i pengepolitikken, og sandsynligvis heller ikke de store nye signaler om end vi ser behov for lidt mere lempelige signaler fra Norges Bank, hvilket dog nok først bliver aktuelt på december-rentemødet. Euro-PMI stopper med at stige? USA: Markit PMI mere nedtonet relativt til ISM nov mar jul nov mar jul nov mar jul ISM Markit PMI manufacturing Source: Reuters EcoWin Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne faldt lidt tilbage og renterne trækker en anelse nedad, mens risk-off -mønster præger valutamarkederne. Asien-børserne følger med ned til morgen trods positiv Kina-PMI US futures peger dog lidt op. USA: Realkreditansøgningerne faldt i sidste uge med 0,6% fra ugen før, men ansøgninger i forbindelse med boligkøb steg en smule og forstærkede således ikke den faldende tendens fra de to forrige uger. Kina: HSBC s Fremstillings-PMI overraskede positivt da det steg mere end ventet til 50,9 i oktober fra 50,2 i september. Stigningen antyder fortsat vækstmomentum ind i 4. kvartal, men samtidige spekulationer om opstramninger fra myndigheder kombineret med fortsat højere pengemarkedsrenter overdøvede rapporten og det hindrede ikke en negativ stemning på finansmarkederne. UK: Referat af seneste rentemøde viste fuld enighed om at der aktuelt ikke er de store argumenter for at lempe graden af pengepolitisk stimulans yderligere. Således så man en robust bedring i økonomien samt at overskudskapaciteten på arbejdsmarkedet bliver nedbragt lidt hurtigere end ventet i august, hvilket om noget gav et hint i retning af tidligere renteforhøjelser. Spanien: Bank of Spain estimerede BNP-væksten til 0,1% k/k i Q3, og landet afsluttede dermed den toårige periode med recession. Euroområdet: Forbrugertilliden steg som ventet til -14,5 i oktober. ECB annoncerer som ventet planen for indfasningens af dens tilsynsrolle. kernekapital-raten (CET1) for bankerne fastsat til 8%, og man lægger ud tidligt i 2014 med et foreløbigt risiko-tjek opfulgt af en mere grundig aktiv-gennemgang for endelig at have foretaget en egentlig stresstest sammen med EBA inden oktober, hvorefter ECB formelt indtager den overordnede tilsynsrolle i november. Danmark: Forbrugertilliden faldt kun marginalt til 4,6 i oktober og steg en smule sæsonkorrigeret. Det seneste løft i tilliden skyldes især øget optimisme omkring dansk økonomi som helhed, frem for vurderingen af familiernes egen økonomiske situation. Måske det er en del af forklaringen på at husholdningerne ikke forbruger mere. Kina-PMI antyder fortsat vækstmomentum ,0 14,0 13,0 12,0 11,0 10,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 BNP HSBC's PMI fremstilling Source: Reuters EcoWin For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 24. oktober 2013 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,41% / indeks 653,03) endte, på linje med de øvrige europæiske aktiemarkeder, i negativt territorium. Især var bankaktierne under pres efter den europæiske centralbank (ECB) annoncerede kriterierne for nye stresstest af de større europæiske banker. Det ramte også de danske banker som Danske Bank (-1,19% / kurs 124,50), Jyske Bank (-0,85% / kurs 304,40) og regnskabsaktuelle Nordea (-1,43% / kurs 69,15). Dagens bundskraber blev dog Carlsberg (-2,89% / kurs 572,00) efter konkurrenten Heineken fremlagde en kortfattet markedsopdatering hvorfra det fremgik at Heineken oplever særdeles udfordrende forhold på det russiske ølmarked. I den positive ende af indekset endte Chr. Hansen (+4,15% / kurs 205,70) efter selskabet rapporterede regnskab for 4. kvartal, som bekræftede at enzymproducenten fortsætter den stabile og relativt høje vækstfremgang. Renter Det var småt med afgørende nyheder der kunne bevæge obligationsmarkederne i Tyskland og Danmark for alvor. Således trak renterne lidt nedad i overensstemmelse med den globale tendens fra morgenstunden i forbindelse med en lidt mere trykket stemning på aktiemarkederne. Rentefaldet blev dog begrænset en smule af stigende forbrugertillid i euroområdet samt stigende fransk industritillid og positiv spansk BNP-vækst i 3. kvartal. Nye bløde tal for realkreditansøgningerne i USA kombineret med lidt skuffende boligprisstigninger i henhold til FHFA hindrede ikke de amerikanske renter i at følge med lidt nedad. Valuta Valutamarkederne var fra morgenstunden onsdag præget af en højere grad af risk-off, og det udmøntede sig i styrkelser i JPY, CHF og til dels USD. EUR blev således svækket en smule, men udviklingen vendte senere hjulpet af stigende euro-forbrugertillid, positiv spansk vækst i Q3, stigende fransk industritillid samt oven på at ECB fremlagde sin plan for næste års tilsynsovertagelse af bankerne. På trods af en enig neutral rentekomité i BoE der om noget hintede tidligere renteforhøjelser og en realkreditlåneaktivitet i UK der nåede det højeste niveau siden 2009, formåede GBP at blive svækket som følge af dagens risk-off - tendens. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP 653,0-0,41 USD/JPY 97,4 0,000 USA 2,49 0,00 CRB 281,7 1,64 Stoxx ,0-0,62 EUR/USD 1,379 0,001 Euroområdet 1,77-0,03 Brent oil (1M fut) 108,0-1,67 FTSE 6674,5-0,32 USD/DKK 5,410-0,005 Danmark 1,89-0,04 Gold (spot) 1336,6-0,05 S&P ,4-0,47 CHF/DKK 6,065 0,014 Nasdaq 3907,1-0,57 GBP/DKK 8,759-0,028 Hang Seng 22813,1-0,81 SEK/DKK 0,850 0,001 Nikkei 14337,9-0,61 NOK/DKK 0,915-0,002 Alle tal er opgjort kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,125 0,125 0,250 2,49 2,80 2,80 3,00 EUR/USD 1,379 1,28 1,23 1,10 Euroland 0,50 0,25 0,25 0,25 1,77 1,80 1,65 1,65 USD/JPY 97,4 102,0 103,0 105,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 2,60 2,70 2,90 3,00 USD/DKK 5,410 5,83 6,06 6,77 Danmark 0,20 0,10 0,10 0,10 1,89 2,00 1,85 1,85 EUR/DKK 7,460 7,46 7,45 7,45 Sverige 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,25 2,35 2,50 2,40 2,60 SEK/DKK 0,8500 0,878 0,887 0,898 Norge 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 2,90 2,80 2,60 2,60 NOK/DKK 0,9146 0,950 0,949 0,968 2

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 24. oktober 2013 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Spar Nord Bank 3. kvartal Ringkjøbing Landbobank 3. kvartal Chr Hansen Holding Årsregnskab Svenska Handelsbanken 3. kvartal Novozymes B 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM/YoY) Oct %/4.5% 2.8%/3.8% :50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Sep B B B :30 Japan All Industry Activity Index MoM Aug 0,2% %(r) 0,3% :00 Tyskland PPI (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.1%/-0.7% %/-0.5% 0.3%/-0.5% :00 EMU ECB's Coeure, Linde and Nowotny speaks :00 Italien Industrial Orders (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.5%/ %/-2.2% 2.0%/-6.8% :00 USA Existing Home Sales Sep 5.30M 5.30M 5.39M(r) 5.29M :30 Kina Property prices Sep :00 Danmark Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep %/-- 0.0%/-0.6% -0.3%/-2.4% :30 UK PSNB ex Interventions Sep 11.3B B 11.1B :30 Spanien To sell 3M and 9M Bills :30 USA Unemployment Rate Sep 7,3% 7,3% 7,3% 7,2% :30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Sep 180K 200K 193K(r) 148K :30 USA Change in Private Payrolls Sep 180K K(r) 126K :00 USA Net Long-term TIC Flows Aug $31.0B -- $31.1B -$8.9B :00 USA Construction Spending (MoM) Aug 0,4% -- 1,4%(r) 0,6% :00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Oct :45 FR Business Confidence Oct :00 Danmark Consumer confidence, nsa. Oct -- 3,0 4,7 4, :30 UK BBA Loans for House Purchase Sep :00 UK Bank of England Releases Minutes :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 18. okt ,3% -0,6% :30 USA Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.2%/-1.0% %/-0.2%(r) 0.2%/-1.0% :00 USA House Price Index (MoM) Aug 0,8% -- 0,8% (r) 0,3% :00 EMU Consumer Confidence Oct A -14, ,9-14, :30 EMU ECB's Linde speaks :45 Kina HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI Oct 50,4 50,2 50, :00 Spanien Unemployment Rate 3Q 26,10% -- 26,26% :30 Sverige Riksbank Interest rate decision 24. okt 1,00% 1,00% 1,00% :00 Norge Central bank interest rate decision 24. okt 1,50% 1,50% 1,50% :00 EMU PMI Manufacturing Oct A 51, , :00 EMU PMI Services Oct A 52, :00 EMU PMI Composite Oct A 52,4 52,2 52, :00 Italien Consumer Confidence Index Oct 100, , :00 UK CBI Business Optimism Oct :30 USA Trade Balance Aug -$39.5B -- -$39.1B :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 19. okt 340K K :30 USA Continuing Claims 12. okt 2877K K :58 USA Markit US PMI Preliminary Oct 52, , :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 20. okt , :00 USA JOLTs Job Openings Aug :00 USA New Home Sales Sep 425K 425K 421K :00 USA Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Oct :00 FR Jobseekers Net Change Sep :30 Japan Natl CPI ex fresh food (YoY) Sep 0,7% -- 0,8% :30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex fresh food (YoY) Oct 0,3% -- 0,2% :00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Oct 108, , :00 Italien Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.0%/-2.3% %/-0.9% :00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Sep 2,4% -- 2,3% :30 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q A 0.8%/1.5% 0.5%/-- 0.7%/1.3% :30 USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) Sep 2,0% 2,0% 0,1% :30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (MoM) Sep 0,7% -- 1,5% :55 USA Univ. of Michigan Confidence Oct F 75, , :00 USA Wholesale Inventories (MoM) Aug 0,3% -- 0,1% :00 EMU ECB's Asmussen speaks Analytikere: Jes Asmussen, , jeas01@handelsbanken.dk, Rasmus Gudum, , ragu02@handelsbanken.dk Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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