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1 17. september 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Så oprandt dagen endelig for det med spænding ventede rentemøde i den amerikanske centralbank (Fed). Mødet afsluttes i aften dansk tid med offentliggørelse af rentemeddelelse og pressemøde med Fed-chef Janet Yellen. På forhånd er usikkerheden ekstrem stor om hvorvidt Fed vælger at hæve renten for første gang efter seks års stilstand til lige over 0%. Således er der en lille overvægt af økonomer der venter en renteforhøjelse, mens finansmarkederne kun indpriser en sandsynlighed omkring 30%. Vi finder det da også overvejende sandsynligt, at Fed venter med en renteforhøjelse til senere i år, om end vi ikke kan udelukke en renteforhøjelse i dag. Alternativt er der muligheden for at Fed foretager en semi-renteforhøjelse, hvor man nøjes med at hæve bundgrænsen for Fed Funds rate fra nuværende 0%, men fastholder den øvre grænse på 0,25%. Før slut 2008 benyttede man ikke et spænd i målet for Fed Funds renten. Argumenterne for ikke at hæve renten nu er nok en smule i overvægt. Først og fremmest kan man argumentere for, at den seneste uro på finansmarkederne, med udgangspunkt i Kina og faldende råvarepriser, gør det bedre at vente, for bedre at kunne vurdere effekten på inflationen. Husk i den sammenhæng på, at inflationen er lav og ikke viser de store tegn på stigning pt.. Læg dertil, at lønstatistikkerne heller ikke viser tegn på øget lønpres. Derudover er den effektive USD fortsat blevet styrket de seneste måneder, og endelig kan den lave markedsindprisning af en renteforhøjelse betyde, at effekten af en renteforhøjelse vil være et uønsket stort løft i markedsrenterne. Derudover har vi modtaget en interessant kommentar fra Fed s vicechef Dudley om, at den seneste udvikling har gjort en september-renteforhøjelse mindre overbevisende. Referatet af juli-rentemødet afslørede, at allerede her var der flere medlemmer af FOMC der udtrykte bekymringer om yderligere disinflationært pres fra udviklingen i global økonomi. Faktorer der taler for en renteforhøjelse er først og fremmest, at arbejdsløshedsraten med det seneste uventede store fald til 5,1% nu befinder sig på linje med Fed s mål for det langsigtede ligevægtsniveau på mellem 5,0% og 5,2%. Der er selvfølgelig igen en risiko for, at Fed vurderer, at den strukturelle ledighed er lavere og igen nedjusterer sit syn på ligevægtsniveauet. Derudover er USA s økonomi grundlæggende i god gænge med en robust beskæftigelsesvækst, der tilsiger at målet om fuld beskæftigelse må være tæt på nået. Ydermere er der argumentet om, at dette rentemøde indeholder et efterfølgende pressemøde, hvorpå Yellen kan uddybe motivationen bag en renteforhøjelse og understrege, at renteforhøjelserne vil komme i et usædvanligt gradvist tempo. Endelig er der argumentet om, at hvis renten skal hæves i løbet af denne opsvingsperiode, er det ved at være tid. Her tæller både hensynet til finansielle ubalancer, inflationsrisici samt råderummet i pengepolitikken på længere sigt. Der er også rentemøde i Schweiz centralbank, SNB, i dag, og vi forventer som udgangspunkt ikke den store ændring i forhold til forrige rentemøde i juni. Ikke desto mindre skal vi huske på, at ECB på sit seneste rentemøde flagede en øget tilbøjelighed til at lempe pengepolitikken yderligere. Om muligt bør SNB nok skygge denne bevægelse, hvis ikke den vil risikere, at presset for en stærkere CHF genopstår. Læg dertil, at inflationen endnu ikke har vist tegn på, at have nået en bund endnu, da den uventet ramte -1,4% i august det laveste siden Det skyldes nok overvejende, at fjernelsen af kursloftet for CHF i januar stadig har effekt. Vi forventer da også, at SNB vil nedskrive sine inflationsestimater en tand i forhold til juni-rentemødet. På den anden side viste BNP-væksten en lidt større bedring i 2. kvartal end ventet oven på droppet i 1. kvartal. SNB-chef Thomas Jordan gentog for nyligt, at man er parat til at handle om nødvendigt, samt at niveauet for styringsrenten på -0,75% ikke er den absolutte bund, men at der er grænser for langt den kan falde yderligere. USA: Finansmarkedet tror ikke på renteløft Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: I gårsdagens kinesiske aktiehandel vendte tab til en 5%-stigning i Shanghai Composite i den sidste time før børsluk. Det tyder på nye støtteopkøb fra myndighederne. Her til morgen ligger de kinesiske børser sammen med størstedelen af resten af Asien i små plusser. I går var der aktiekursstigninger i både USA og Europa, og statsrenterne steg svagt. USA: Forbrugerpriserne (CPI) faldt med 0,1% m/m i august, hvilket bragte inflationen ned på 0,1% y/y fra 0,2% y/y i juli. Det var helt på linje med konsensusestimatet, og og påvirker nok ikke Feds rentebeslutning i aften. NAHB s byggeaktivitetsindeks steg igen i september og ligger nu på 62, hvilket er det højeste niveau for tilliden i byggeriet i knapt ti år. Det afspejler, at de lave realkreditrenter og den styrkede indenlandske økonomi, herunder robuste beskæftigelse, understøtter aktiviteten på boligmarkedet i stadig højere grad. Japan: Kreditvurderingsbureauet S&P nedgraderede Japans kreditværdighed med et nøk i går med henvisning til at der kun er lille chance for at få vendt de svage udsigter for inflation og vækst. Storbritannien: Arbejdsmarkedsrapporten for juli var relativ stærk med beskæftigelsesfremgang og et fald i ledigheden fra 5,6% til 5,5%. Lønvæksten steg igen og har nu nået 2,9% y/y både med og uden bonusser Euroområdet: De endelige tal for forbrugerprisindekset viste en inflation på 0,1% y/y i august, en lille nedrevidering fra 0,2% y/y i den foreløbige opgørelse. Kerneinflationen blev også nedrevideret fra 1,0% y/y til 0,9% y/y. USA: Ny lille stigning i NAHB byggeaktiviteten For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 17. september 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,44% / indeks 974,12) endte i positivt territorium og fulgte dermed strømmen fra de resterende europæiske aktiemarkeder. Stemningen var for endnu en dag afventende forud for morgendagens rentemøde i den amerikanske centralbank (Fed). I toppen af indekset endte Carlsberg (+4,73% / kurs 515,50) efter bryggerierne Sabmiller og AB Inbev bekræftede, at de arbejder på at fusionere verdens to største bryggerier. Det fik samtidig et nordisk finanshus til at hæve anbefalingen på Carlsberg-aktien. Samtidig meddelte Carlsberg, at selskabets økonomidirektør Jørn P. Jensen forlader sin post. Pandora (+2,42% / kurs 784,50) endte også højere efter et par dage i modvind. I den anden ende af indekset endte TDC (- 3,26% / kurs 36,78) efter flere finanshuse var ude og sænke kursmålet på teleaktien.. Renter Efter et lille fald fra morgenstunden steg statsrenterne i både Tyskland og Danmark over dagen i går i takt med pæne aktiekursstigninger. Der var ikke én specifik forklaring på den øgede optimisme på markederne, men måske investorerne var trætte af at vente på Fed-mødet (i dag) og i stedet valgte at se længere fremad. De amerikanske renter fulgte samme tendens med en stigende tendens over dagen. Amerikanske inflationstal kom ud helt som ventet og gav ikke meget ny information forud for aftenens vigtige Fed-rentemøde. Inflationen er fortsat afdæmpet på 0,1% y/y. NAHB s byggeaktivitetsindeks steg igen i september og ligger nu på 62, hvilket er det højeste niveau for tilliden i byggeriet i knapt ti år. Valuta EUR/USD kørte op og ned i flere omgange i går, men EUR endte dagen lidt styrket over for USD. GBP styrkedes omkring 1% over for både EUR og USD oven på offentliggørelsen af arbejdsmarkedsrapport for Storbritannien. Dén viste relativ stærk beskæftigelsesfremgang og et fald i ledigheden fra 5,6% til 5,5%. Lønvæksten steg igen og har nu nået 2,9% y/y både med og uden bonusser. JPY svækkedes lidt i går over for USD, måske fordi kreditvurderingsbureauet S&P nedgraderede Japans kreditværdighed med et nøk med henvisning til at der kun er lille chance for at få vendt de svage udsigter for inflation og vækst. USD/JPY ligger fladt her til morgen. En række Emerging Markets valutaer nød godt af den generelle fremgang i risikoappetitten i går og styrkedes. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 17. september 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 14/09/15 11:00 EMU Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.3%/0.7% 0.2%/0.5% -0.3%/1.5%(r) 0.6%/1.9% 15/09/15 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement 15/09/15 05:00 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Statement/Kuroda Press Conference 15/09/15 08:45 Frankrig CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.3%/0.1% %/0.20% 0.3%/0.0% 15/09/15 10:30 UK CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.2%/0.0% -0.2%/0.1% 0.2%/0.0% 15/09/15 10:30 UK CPI Core YoY Aug 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 15/09/15 10:30 UK ONS House Price YoY Jul % 5.4% 15/09/15 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Current Situation Sep /09/15 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Expectations Sep /09/15 14:30 USA Retail Sales Advance MoM Aug 0.3% %(r) 0.2% 15/09/15 14:30 USA Retail Sales Control Group Aug 0.4% 0.6% 0.6%(r) 0.4% 15/09/15 14:30 USA Empire Manufacturing Sep /09/15 15:15 USA Industrial Production MoM Aug -0.2% %(r) -0.4% 15/09/15 15:15 USA Manufacturing (SIC) Production Aug -0.3% %(r) -0.5% 16/09/15 10:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Jul 5.6% % 5.5% 16/09/15 11:00 EMU CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.0%/0.2% -0.6%/0.2% 0.0%/0.1% 16/09/15 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Aug F 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 16/09/15 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 11. Sep % -7.0% 16/09/15 14:30 USA CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.1%/0.2% %/0.2% -0.1%/0.2% 16/09/15 14:30 USA CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Aug 0.1%/1.9% %/1.8% 0.1%/1.8% 16/09/15 16:00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index Sep /09/15 01:50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Aug B B B 17/09/15 08:35 Japan BOJ Governor Kuroda Speech 17/09/15 09:30 Schweiz SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range 17. Sep -1.25% -1.25% -1.25% 17/09/15 09:30 Schweiz SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range 17. Sep -0.25% -0.25% -0.25% 17/09/15 09:30 Schweiz SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate 17. Sep -0.75% -0.75% -0.75% 17/09/15 10:30 UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.2%/3.8% %/4.2% 17/09/15 14:30 USA Housing Starts Aug 1170K K 17/09/15 14:30 USA Building Permits Aug 1155K K 17/09/15 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 12. Sep 277K K 17/09/15 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 13. Sep /09/15 16:00 USA Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Sep /09/15 20:00 USA FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 17. Sep 0.38% 0.25% 0.25% 17/09/15 20:00 USA FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 17. Sep 0.13% 0.00% 0.00% 17/09/15 20:30 USA Fed's Yellen Holds Press Conference 18/09/15 16:00 USA Leading Index Aug 0.2% % Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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