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1 25. februar 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagen bliver knapt så begivenhedsrig som de forrige på dage med hensyn til de planlagte økonomiske begivenheder og vi skal sandsynligvis hen sent på eftermiddagen førend der for alvor sker interessante ting. Her skal Yellen i sin anden del af kongreshøringerne denne gang i Repræsentanternes Hus. Det er dog sjældent at denne afviger meget fra den første del i går i Senatet. På linje med ovennævnte skal ECB-chef Mario Draghi i høring i EU-parlamentet angående centralbankens årsrapport. Blandt nøgletallene kan der være en smule fokus på Frankrig, hvorfra vi modtager opgørelser over forbrugertilliden i februar (som ventes at stige en tand), samt antallet af nye jobsøgende i januar. Her ventes antallet nogenlunde at holde det lavere tempo efter faldet i december. I USA kan der derudover være opmærksomhed på opgørelsen over salget af nye boliger, hvor der ventes et lille fald i januar efter den lidt overraskende stigning i december, som bragte omsætningen op i det højeste niveau i mere end seks år. Boligtallene bliver desuden krydret med opgørelsen over nye realkreditansøgninger, som er faldet tilbage i januar efter det store løft i januar, og dermed har indikeret at salget af nye boliger bør falde tilbage (jf. figur). USA: Salget af nye boliger falder tilbage Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne i US og Europa op i nye rekordniveauer, hjulpet af Yellen-høring. US-renter falder og USD svækkes en anelse. USA: Fed-chef Janet Yellen bragte ikke meget nyt med sig i Senatshøringen, og hun gentog således Fed s guidance om tålmodighed med renteforhøjelser betyder, at det er usandsynligt på de næste to rentemøder (marts&april). Hun fremhævede, at en betragtelig fremgang var sket i bedringen på arbejdsmarkedet, men hun understregede dog, at for mange er arbejdsløse, lønvæksten er træg og inflationen er langt under langsigts-målet. Hun brugte en del tid på at forklare at Fed s ændring af guidance ikke kan benyttes som tidstabel for en første renteforhøjelse, hvilket eventuelt kan tolkes i retning af at hun forbereder markederne på, at tålmodighed vil blive udskiftet snarligt. En modifikation af guidance betyder en renteforhøjelse er muligt på ethvert rentemøde, tilføjede hun. Således var hendes ord fortsat forenelige med en mulig juni-renteforhøjelse, sådan som vi hælder til. Forbrugertilliden fra Conference Board faldt lidt mere end ventet til 96,4 i februar fra forrige opreviderede 103,8. Faldet er sandsynligvis relateret til stigningen i energipriserne, men bør ikke give anledning til større bekymring, da niveauet fortsat er solidt. Derudover viste beskæftigelsesindekset et lille fald (men er fortsat temmelig robust - se figur), og andelen der så stigende indkomst over de næste seks måneder faldt skuffende til det laveste niveau siden Richmond Fed s fremstillingsindeks skuffede en smule, da det faldt helt tilbage til nulpunktet i februar. Dermed skal det lægges oven i de seneste andre regionale indeks som også har skuffet en smule i februar og dermed ikke peger på den store bedring i det nationale ISM-indeks. Markit s Service-PMI steg i februar noget mere end ventet til 57,0 fra forrige 54,4, hjulpet på vej af bedring i vurderingen af beskæftigelsen. Det antyder at ISM s serviceindeks tilsvarende vil komme sig i februar oven på de forrige par måneders lidt mere afdæmpede niveau. S&P/CaseShiller s boligprisindeks steg i december mere end ventet med 0,9% m/m / 4,5% y/y. Dermed er der tegn på at det lavere udbud af boliger til salg øger presset opad i boligpriserne priserne. Kina: HSBC s foreløbige opgørelse af PMI for fremstillingssektoren steg uventet i februar til 50,1 fra 49,7 i januar. Dermed er indekset over boom/bust-niveauet på 50 for første gang i fire måneder. Det var især et lidt overraskende udfald, idet mange andre aktivitetsindikatorer senest har peget på yderligere afmatning, herunder den samlede kreditgivning, den faktiske produktion, stålpriser samt jernbanefragtvolumener. Således kan indekset være forstyrret af opgørelsen indeholder det kinesiske nytår. Det var ordre- og produktionsindeksene som trak opad i målingen, mens eksportordrerne trak ned. Storbritannien: BoE-chef Carney udtalte i parlamentshøring, at man skal se igennem den seneste tendens til inflationsfald, og han lovede at BoE vil bringe inflationen tilbage til målet på 2% inden for en rimelig tidshorisont. Grækenland: Allerede om formiddagen udtalte euro-finansministrenes formand Dijsselbloem, at det første indtryk af Grækenlands liste over sparetiltag var positivt. Senere fulgte så en officiel godkendelse fra euro-finansminstergruppen med opbakning fra ECB og IMF. IMF-chef Lagarde udtalte dog, at listen ikke indeholdt en tydelig sikkerhed for reform, men var et validt udgangspunkt. Godkendelsen indebærer, at de nationale parlamenter i euroområdet snarest skal godkende låneforlængelsen til Grækenland, sandsynligvis sidst på ugen. Det er dog blevet indikeret vil ske uden problemer ligesom tidligere. Herefter udestår udarbejdelsen af detaljerne i reformbestræbelserne, som skal være afsluttet inden udgangen af april, hvorefter den første udbetaling af nødlån kan ske. Ind til da udestår dog fortsat lidt uklarheder om hvordan Grækenland vil kunne finansiere sine forpligtelser, herunder adgangen til ECB-kapital. Frankrig: Erhvervstillidsindekset fra INSEE var uændret 94 i februar, mod en ventet stigning til 95. Dermed fortsætter indekset den flade udvikling fra de forrige tre måneder. Tilsvarende udviklede fremstillingsindekset sig også stort set fladt i februar. Belgien: Erhvervstillidsindekset fra Belgiens centralbank steg i februar mindre end ventet til -8,3 (fra -8.8 i januar), og stoppede dermed de forrige to måneders overraskende store fald. USA: Fortsat gunstigt CB-signal for ledighed Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 25. februar 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,32% / indeks 916,12) endte i negativt territorium og dermed blev de seneste 8 dages positive stime afbrudt. Dette på trods af at den amerikanske centralbankchef Janet Yellen fortsat anvendte udtrykket om, at centralbanken har tænkt sig at være tålmodige. I bunden af indekset endte Jyske Bank (- 7,51% / kurs 293,30) efter bankens rapporterede et særdeles skuffende regnskab for 4. kvartal 2014, hvor specielt markante nedskrivningerne og manglende udbytte skar i øjnene. A.P. Møller-Mærsk (-1,55% / kurs 13940,00) endte også lavere forud for morgendagens regnskab idet priserne på olie fortsatte mandagens negative tendens. I den anden ende af indekset endte GN Store Nord (+2,35% / kurs 152,70) efter aktien i perioden har været en smule under pres. Renter De tyske renter steg første del af tirsdagen, efter at euro-finansministrenes formand Dijsselbloem udtalte, at det første indtryk af Grækenlands liste over sparetiltag var positivt. Tilsvarende trak de græske renter pænt nedad til laveste niveau i en måned. Senere holdt renterne nogenlunde det lidt højere niveau efter det blev bekræftet, at de internationale kreditorer (Troikaen) godkendte listen. Renterne endte dog rimeligt fladt efter Yellenhøring. Rentemarkedernes fokus var derudover rettet mod Fed-chef Yellens høring i Senatet om eftermiddagen. Hun kom dog ikke med meget nyt, og dem der havde sat næsen op efter en lidt mindre dueagtig tone blev nok skuffet, og USA-renterne satte sig da også bagefter. Vi modtog en stribe økonomiske nøgletal fra USA som overordnet var blandede. På den positive side steg boligpriser og Markit s serviceindekse mere end ventet. På den negative side talte, at CB-forbrugertillid og Richmond Fed s fremstillingsindeks faldt mere end ventet. Valuta EUR/USD havde lidt svært ved at finde ud af hvad ben krydset skulle stå på tirsdag. Først på dagen blev EUR svækket på trods af, at de internationale kreditorer godkendte Grækenlands liste over budgetforbedringstiltag. Derudover skuffede tal for erhvervstilliden i Belgien og Frankrig en smule. Senere på dagen var fokus rettet mod Yellenhøringen i Senatet, og der var ikke her de store tegn på en mindre dueagtig tendens i pengepolitikken, og det sendte slutteligt USD en anelse svagere, herunder rover for EUR. De økonomiske nøgletal var blandede med Richmond Fed og CB-forbrugertillid på den negative side, mens Markits PMIserviceindeks samt S&P/CSboligprisopgørelsen var på den positive side. GBP blev styrket yderligere først på tirsdagen, men blev svækket igen efter at BoE-chef Carney lovede at inflationen vil blive bragt tilbage til målet på 2%. JPY blev svækket i overensstemmelse med bedringen i risikoappetitten efter Yellenhøring. JPY blev dog igen styrket ikke mindst til morgen hvor Japans aktiemarked gik mod strømmen og faldt en smule. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP 916,1-0,32 USD/JPY 118,8-0,330 USA 1,99-0,08 CRB 222,3 0,13 Stoxx ,3 0,56 EUR/USD 1,135 0,002 Euroområdet 0,37 0,01 Brent oil (1M fut) 58,8-0,03 FTSE 6949,6 0,54 USD/DKK 6,573-0,009 Danmark 0,33 0,01 Gold (spot) 1210,7 0,80 S&P ,5 0,28 CHF/DKK 6,920-0,007 Nasdaq 4968,1 0,14 GBP/DKK 10,174 0,015 Hang Seng 24824,9 0,30 SEK/DKK 0,783 0,001 Nikkei 18554,1-0,27 NOK/DKK 0,866 0,003 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,25 0,50 1,25 1,99 2,10 2,20 2,50 EUR/USD 1,135 1,11 1,07 1,00 Euroland 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,37 0,40 0,50 0,80 USD/JPY 118,8 121,0 130,0 140,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 1,00 1,81 1,65 1,80 2,10 USD/DKK 6,572 6,71 6,96 7,45 Danmark 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,33 0,25 0,35 0,70 EUR/DKK 7,462 7,45 7,45 7,45 Sverige -0,10-0,10-0,10 0,25 0,68 0,75 0,90 1,40 SEK/DKK 0,7830 0,784 0,828 0,876 Norge 1,25 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,36 1,75 1,75 1,75 NOK/DKK 0,8660 0,837 0,837 0,851 2

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 25. februar 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Jyske Bank Årsregnskab A.P. Møller-Mærsk Årsregnskab Alm. Brand Årsregnskab DFDS Årsregnskab Københavns Lufthavne Årsregnskab William Demant Holding Årsregnskab BankNordik Årsregnskab NeuroSearch Årsregnskab NKT Holding Årsregnskab STYLEPIT Halvårsregnskab ØK Årsregnskab Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Feb , :00 UK CBI Reported Sales Feb :30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Jan 0, (r) 0, :45 EMU ECB's Mersch Speaks in London :00 USA Existing Home Sales Jan 4.95M M(r) 4.82M :30 USA Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Feb -4, , :00 Japan Small Business Confidence Feb , :00 Tyskland GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q F 0.7%/1.4% %/1.4% 0.7%/1.4% :45 Frankrig Business Confidence Feb :00 EMU CPI (MoM/YoY) Jan F -1.6%/-0.6% %/-0.6% -0.1%/-0.6% :00 EMU CPI Core YoY Jan F 0.6% % 0.6% :00 Belgien Business Confidence Feb -7, :00 EMU ECB President Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt :00 USA S&P/CS 20 City (MoM/YyoY) Dec 0.60%/4.4% %/4.31% 0.87%/4.46% :45 USA Markit US Services PMI Feb P 54, :00 USA Fed's Yellen Testifies to Senate Banking Panel :00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Feb (r) :00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Feb :45 Kina HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Feb P :45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Feb :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications feb % :00 USA Fed Chair Yellen Testifies to House :00 USA New Home Sales Jan 470K K :30 EMU ECB's Draghi Testifies to EP :00 Frankrig Total Jobseekers Jan K k USA MBA Mortgage Foreclosures 4Q % USA Mortgage Delinquencies 4Q % :00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Mar 9, :55 Tyskland Unemployment Rate Feb 6.5% % :00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Jan 3,7% % :30 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) 0.5%/2.7% %/2.7% :00 EMU Economic Confidence Feb 102, :30 USA CPI (MoM/YoY) -0.6%/-0.1% %/0.1% :30 USA CPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM) 0.1%/1.6% %/1.6% :30 USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 1.6% % :30 USA Durables Ex Transportation :30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Jan 0,3% % :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims feb K K :00 USA FHFA House Price Index MoM Dec 0,5% % :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort feb :00 USA Fed's Lockhart Speaks on U.S. Outlook :30 Japan Jobless Rate Jan 3.4% % :30 Japan Overall Household Spending YoY Jan -4.1% % :30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Jan 2.3% % :50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jan P 2.7%/-3.1% %/0.1% :50 Japan Retail Sales MoM Jan -0,4% % :05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Feb :45 Frankrig Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.3%/1.8% %/0.5% :00 Danmark GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q P 0.0%/0.7% -0.2%/0.5% 0.4%/1.0% :00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Feb 89, :30 Sverige GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q 0.5%/1.5% 0.6%/1.6% 0.3%/2.1% :00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb P 0.6%/-0.3% -1.1%/-0.4% :30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q S 2,0% % :45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager Feb 58, :00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Jan 2.0%/8.7% %/8.5% :00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb F Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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