Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

Transkript

1 11. september 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens mest interessante nøgletal offentliggøres i eftermiddag når vi andre så småt nærmer os weekenden. Der er tale om University of Michigans forbrugertillidsopgørelse for september for USA. Her ventes en stigning, hvilket nok især baseres på den lavere tillid i august relativt til målingen fra Conference Board (CB) samt de seneste uge-målinger i Bloomberg-forbrugertilliden. Lavere renter, fald i benzinpriser og robust beskæftigelse vurderes at være de primære kilder bag det seneste løft i tilliden, som sendte CB s indeks uventet kraftigt op i august. Her nåede indekset det næsthøjeste niveau over de seneste otte år. Siden da har vi dog set et markant fald på aktiemarkederne, som kan have gjort husholdningerne lidt mere usikre, hvorfor vi forventer en mindre udpræget stigning i Michigantilliden i september. Tyskland og Sverige offentliggør henholdsvis inflation og BNP-tal, men begge dele er endelige tal, som ikke ventes at afvige fra den foreløbige opgørelse. Svensk ledighed ventes at være steget. USA: Aktie-dyk begrænser tillidsstigning Kilde: Macrobond og Bloomberg Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De europæiske aktiemarkeder faldt i går, bl.a. fordi de havde fald til gode efter de amerikanske faldt i forgårs. Gårsdagen bød til gengæld på små stigninger i de amerikanske aktier, og Asien ligger nogenlunde uændret her til morgen. Statsrenterne fladt og EUR en anelse stærkere over for USD. USA: Antallet af nye ledige faldt helt på linje med konsensusforventningen til i sidste uge. Faldet var dog ikke stort nok til at undgå en lille stigning i fire-måneders gennemsnittet (se figur), og dermed nok heller ikke nok til at overbevise Fed om, at en renteforhøjelse er på sin plads allerede på det næste møde. Kina: Myndighederne har angiveligt i går interveneret i det såkaldte offshore marked for renminbi (CNH), altså renminbi handlet uden for de kapitalrestriktioner, som gælder for fastlands-kina. Siden annonceringen af Kinas nye valutakursregime og devalueringen af onshore renmninbi (CNY) over for USD, har CNH ligget noget svagere end CNY. Denne forskel indsnævredes i går, da CNH styrkedes hele 1,2% over for USD, den største daglige styrkelse siden CNH-valutaen opstod. I går blev det også annonceret, at udenlandske centralbanker får lettere adgang til at handle renmninbi på onshore-markedet. UK: Bank of England holdt som ventet både renten og størrelsen på opkøbsprogrammet uændret på gårsdagens rentemøde. En enkelt, Ian McCafferty, stemte for en 25 basispunkter renteforhøjelse mens de resterende otte stemte for uændret rente. Der var enstemmighed om det uændrede opkøbsprogram Danmark: Forbrugerprisindekset faldt med 0,3% m/m i august, hvilket var et lidt større fald end ventet. Det fik inflationen til at falde fra 0,7% y/y i juli til 0,5% y/y i august. Sverige: Forbrugerprisindekset faldt med 0,2% m/m i august, hvorved inflationen faldt en anelse mere end ventet til -0,2% y/y. Den underliggende inflation faldt fra 0,9% y/y til 0,8%, men det er tæt op af Riksbankens nyligt offentliggjorte inflationsskøn, og vi holder derfor fast i vores forventning om at Riksbanken ikke behøver at komme med flere stimulanstiltag dette efterår. Norge; Kerneinflationen steg lidt mere end ventet til 2,9% y/y. Grækenland: Ledigheden steg overraskende til 25,2% fra 25,0% maj. USA: Ugentlige tal for nye ledige stort set fladt Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 11. september 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,52% / indeks 985,31) faldt for første gang i indeværende uge. Den negative stemning kom fra Kina hvor vækstbekymringerne igen blussede op efter der var blevet offentliggjort kinesiske producent- og forbrugerpriser, som indikerede, at der er overkapacitet blandt de kinesiske virksomheder. Omvendt blev der dog også offentliggjort inflationstal som var noget under den kinesiske centralbanks målsætning på 3%. Det giver dermed centralbanken råderum til, at kunne fortsætte med, at lempe pengepolitikken og dermed stimulere økonomien. Vestas (- 0,14% / kurs 357,80) aktionærerne fik lidt positivt nyt fra flere fronter. Således meddelte vindmølleproducenten, at den har indgået en fem-årig service aftale, hvor Vestas skal servicere Coram Wind-projektet i Californien. Coram-vindparken består af 34 Vestas V-90 møller med en sammenlagt kapacitet på 102 MW. Herudover meddelte konkurrencen Nordex, at selskabet har oplevet høj aktivitet i juli og august på det tyske marked. I bunden af indekset endte TDC (-3,13% / kurs 40,60) som formentligt fortsat var presset af rygterne om, at selskabet skulle være interesseret i, at købe den svenske kabel-producent Com Hem. Renter De tyske og danske statsobligationsrenter åbnede gårsdagens handel med fald, men steg så over dagen i takt med aktiekursfald på de europæiske børser. Statsrenterne endte dagen på samme niveau som de sluttede dagen før. De amerikanske statsrenter var også stort set uændrede i går. Antallet af nye ledige faldt helt på linje med konsensusforventningen til i sidste uge. Faldet var dog ikke stort nok til at overbevise Fed om, at en renteforhøjelse er på sin plads allerede på det næste møde. Valuta EUR styrkedes en anelse over for USD uden store nøgletal til at påvirke udviklingen. SEK var stort set upåvirket af offentliggørelsen af inflationstallene for august, som da også kom ud stort set som ventet. CNY styrkedes en anelse over for USD i går, men mere interessant var det, at offshore renminbi (CNH) styrkedes hele 1,2% over for USD, den største daglige styrkelse siden CNH-valutaen opstod. CNH er renminbi handlet i fx Hongkong, dvs. uden for de kapitalrestriktioner, som gælder for fastlands-kina. Styrkelsen skyldes angiveligt, at myndighederne højst utraditionelt i går intervenerede til fordel for renminbi i off-shore markedet. Siden annonceringen af Kinas nye valutakursregime og devalueringen af onshore renmninbi (CNY) over for USD, har CNH ligget noget svagere end CNY. Denne forskel indsnævredes i går. BRL svækkedes med op mod 3% over for USD da handlen med BRL åbnede i går efter S&P s nedgradering af Brasiliens kreditværdighed til junkstatus sent i forgårs. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 11. september 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 08/09/15 SAS 3. kvartal 10/09/15 Harboes Bryggeri 1. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 07/09/15 Kina Foreign Reserves Aug $3580.0B $3651.3B $3551.3B 07/09/15 07:00 Japan Leading Index CI Jul P /09/15 08:00 Tyskland Industrial Production SA (MoM/YoY) Jul 1.1%/0.3% 1.0%/ %/0.9% 0.7%/0.5% 07/09/15 09:00 Danmark Industrial Production (MoM) Jul -0.9% -2.0% 3.4% -3.7% 07/09/15 10:30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Sep /09/15 Kina Exports/Imports (YoY) Aug -6.5%/-8.0% %/-8.1% -5.5%/-13.8% 08/09/15 01:01 UK BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) Aug 0.5% % -1.0% 08/09/15 01:50 Japan Trade Balance BoP Basis Jul B B 108.0B 08/09/15 01:50 Japan GDP SA (QoQ) 2Q F -0.5% % -0.3% 08/09/15 07:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook Aug /09/15 08:00 Tyskland Exports/Imports SA (MoM) Jul 1.0%/0.7% %/-0.8% 2.4%/2.2% 08/09/15 08:30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Aug /09/15 09:00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Jul 6.5B 6.0B 4.7B(r) 5.2B 08/09/15 09:00 Danmark Current Account NSA Jul 10.1B 11.5B 7.3B 12.2B 08/09/15 11:00 EMU GDP SA (QoQ/YoY) 2Q P 0.3%/1.2% %/1.2% 0.4%/1.5% 08/09/15 12:00 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism Aug /09/15 16:00 USA Labor Market Conditions Index Change Aug (r) /09/15 21:00 USA Consumer Credit Jul $18.600B -- $20.740B $19.097B 08/09/15 23:15 USA Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks 09/09/15 07:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index Aug /09/15 10:30 UK Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.1%/1.4% %/1.5% -0.4%/0.8% 09/09/15 10:30 UK Visible Trade Balance GBP Jul -9500M M(r) M 09/09/15 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 04. Sep % -6.2% 09/09/15 16:00 UK NIESR GDP Estimate Aug %(r) 0.5% 09/09/15 16:00 USA JOLTS Job Openings Jul (r) /09/15 01:01 UK RICS House Price Balance Aug 46% -- 44% 53% 10/09/15 01:50 Japan Machine Orders (MoM/YoY) Jul 3.3%/10.3% %/16.6% -3.6%/2.8% 10/09/15 03:30 Kina CPI (YoY) Aug 1.8% % 2.0% 10/09/15 03:30 Kina PPI (YoY) Aug -5.6% % -5.9% 10/09/15 07:30 Frankrig Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 2Q F 0.1% % 0.2% 10/09/15 08:45 Frankrig Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.2%/0.7% %/0.6% -0.8%/-0.8% 10/09/15 09:00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.1%/0.7% -0.2%/0.6% -0.1%/0.7% -0.3%/0.5% 10/09/15 09:00 Danmark CPI Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.2%/0.6% -0.3%/0.5% -0.1%/0.5% -0.3%/0.3% 10/09/15 09:00 Spanien Industrial output SA (YoY) Jul 4.3% % 10/09/15 09:30 Sverige Average house prices Aug M 2.521M 10/09/15 09:30 Sverige CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.2%/-0.1% -0.2%/-0.1% 0.0%/-0.1% -0.2%/-0.2% 10/09/15 09:30 Sverige CPI CPIF (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.1%/0.9% -0.1%/0.8% 0.1%/0.9% -0.1%/0.8% 10/09/15 11:00 Grækenland Unemployment rate Jun 24.8% % 25.2% 10/09/15 12:00 Portugal CPI Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.3%/0.6% %/0.7% -0.1%/0.7% 10/09/15 13:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Sep 375B 375B 375B 375B 10/09/15 13:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 10. Sep 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 10/09/15 14:30 USA Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Aug -1.6%/-11.1% %/-10.4% -1.8%/11.4% 10/09/15 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 05. Sep 275K K 275K 10/09/15 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06. Sep /09/15 16:00 USA Wholesale Inventories (MoM) Jul 0.3% % -0.1% 11/09/15 08:00 Tyskland Wholesale Price Index (MoM/YoY) Aug %/-0.% 11/09/15 08:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug F 0.0%/0.2% %/0.2% 11/09/15 09:00 Spanien CPI Core (MoM/YoY) Aug %/0.8% 11/09/15 09:30 Sverige Unemployment rate SA Aug 7.4% 7.4% 7.3% 11/09/15 09:30 Sverige GDP (QoQ/YoY) 2Q F 1.0%/3.0% 1.0%/3.0% 1.0%/3.0% 11/09/15 10:00 Italien Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.8%/0.9% %/-0.3% 11/09/15 10:30 UK Construction Output SA (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.5%/0.9% %/2.6% 11/09/15 12:30 Rusland Key Rate 11. Sep 11.0% % 11/09/15 14:30 USA PPI Final Demand (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.1%/-0.9% %/-0.8% 11/09/15 14:30 USA PPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.1%/0.7% %/0.6% 11/09/15 16:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Sep P /09/15 20:00 USA Monthly Budget Statement Aug -$83.6B Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

4 Research disclaimers Handelsbanken Capital Markets, a division of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (collectively referred to herein as SHB ), is responsible for the preparation of research reports. SHB is regulated in Sweden by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, in Norway by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway, in Finland by the Financial Supervisory of Finland and in Denmark by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. All research reports are prepared from trade and statistical services and other information that SHB considers to be reliable. SHB has not independently verified such information and does not represent that such information is true, accurate or complete. Accordingly, to the extent permitted by law, neither SHB, nor any of its directors, officers or employees, nor any other person, accept any liability whatsoever for any loss, however it arises, from any use of such research reports or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This report has not been given to the subject company, or any other external party, prior to publication to approval the accuracy of the facts presented. The subject company has not been notified of the recommendation, target price or estimate changes, as stated in this report, prior to publication. In no event will SHB or any of its affiliates, their officers, directors or employees be liable to any person for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained in the research reports, including without limitation any lost profits even if SHB is expressly advised of the possibility or likelihood of such damages. The views contained in SHB research reports are the opinions of employees of SHB and its affiliates and accurately reflect the personal views of the respective analysts at this date and are subject to change. There can be no assurance that future events will be consistent with any such opinions. Each analyst identified in this research report also certifies that the opinions expressed herein and attributed to such analyst accurately reflect his or her individual views about the companies or securities discussed in the research report. Research reports are prepared by SHB for information purposes only. The information in the research reports does not constitute a personal recommendation or personalised investment advice and such reports or opinions should not be the basis for making investment or strategic decisions. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Past performance may not be repeated and should not be seen as an indication of future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may forfeit all principal originally invested. Investors are not guaranteed to make profits on investments and may lose money. Exchange rates may cause the value of overseas investments and the income arising from them to rise or fall. This research product will be updated on a regular basis. No part of SHB research reports may be reproduced or distributed to any other person without the prior written consent of SHB. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Please be advised of the following important research disclosure statements: SHB employees, including analysts, receive compensation that is generated by overall firm profitability. Analyst compensation is not based on specific corporate finance or debt capital markets services. No part of analysts compensation has been, is or will be directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed within research reports. From time to time, SHB and/or its affiliates may provide investment banking and other services, including corporate banking services and securities advice, to any of the companies mentioned in our research. We may act as adviser and/or broker to any of the companies mentioned in our research. SHB may also seek corporate finance assignments with such companies. We buy and sell securities mentioned in our research from customers on a principal basis. Accordingly, we may at any time have a long or short position in any such securities. We may also make a market in the securities of all the companies mentioned in this report. [Further information and relevant disclosures are contained within our research reports.] SHB, its affiliates, their clients, officers, directors or employees may own or have positions in securities mentioned in research reports. According to the Bank s Ethical Guidelines for the Handelsbanken Group, the board and all employees of the Bank must observe high standards of ethics in carrying out their responsibilities at the Bank, as well as other assignments. The Bank has also adopted Guidelines concerning Research which are intended to ensure the integrity and independence of research analysts and the research department, as well as to identify actual or potential conflicts of interests relating to analysts or the Bank and to resolve any such conflicts by eliminating or mitigating them and/or making such disclosures as may be appropriate. As part of its control of conflicts of interests, the Bank has introduced restrictions ( Information barriers ) on communications between the Research department and other departments of the Bank. In addition, in the Bank s organisational structure, the Research department is kept separate from the Corporate Finance department and other departments with similar remits. The Guidelines concerning Research also include regulations for how payments, bonuses and salaries may be paid out to analysts, what marketing activities an analyst may participate in, how analysts are to handle their own securities transactions and those of closely related persons, etc. In addition, there are restrictions in communications between analysts and the subject company. For full information on the Bank s ethical guidelines please see the Bank s website the bank/investor relations/corporate social responsibility/ethical guidelines. Handelsbanken has a ZERO tolerance of bribery and corruption. This is established in the Bank s Group Policy on Bribery and Corruption. The prohibition against bribery also includes the soliciting, arranging or accepting bribes intended for the employee s family, friends, associates or acquaintances. For company-specific disclosure texts, please consult the Handelsbanken Capital Markets website: When distributed in the UK Research reports are distributed in the UK by SHB. SHB is authorised by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen) and the Prudential Regulation Authority and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority, and regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request. UK customers should note that neither the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme for investment business nor the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority made under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) for the protection of private customers apply to this research report and accordingly UK customers will not be protected by that scheme. This document may be distributed in the United Kingdom only to persons who are authorised or exempted persons within the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) (or any order made thereunder) or (i) to persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the Order ), (ii) to high net worth entities falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order or (iii) to persons who are professional clients under Chapter 3 of the Financial Conduct Authority Conduct of Business Sourcebook (all such persons together being referred to as Relevant Persons ). When distributed in the United States Important Third-Party Research Disclosures: SHB and its employees are not subject to FINRA s research analyst rules which are intended to prevent conflicts of interest by, among other things, prohibiting certain compensation practices, restricting trading by analysts and restricting communications with the companies that are the subject of the research report. SHB research reports are intended for distribution in the United States solely to major U.S. institutional investors, as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of Each major U.S. institutional investor that receives a copy of research report by its acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide research reports to any other person Reports regarding fixed-income products are prepared by SHB and distributed by SHB to major U.S. institutional investors under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Reports regarding equity products are prepared by SHB and distributed in the United States by Handelsbanken Markets Securities Inc. ( HMSI ) under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). When distributed by HMSI, HMSI takes responsibility for the report. Any U.S. person receiving these research reports that desires to effect transactions in any equity product discussed within the research reports should call or write HMSI. HMSI is a FINRA Member, telephone number ( ).

5 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Johan Sahlström Chief Credit Strategist Ronny Berg Senior Credit Strategist Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Macro Research Jan Häggström Chief Economist Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research Knut Anton Mork Senior Economist, Norway and China Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Per Wall Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC