MARKET REPORT - RED PROPERTY ADVISERS

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1 MARKET REPORT - RED PROPERTY ADVISERS Issue III Copenhagen The iconic brewery "Trekroner" is now in the market as a modern office building

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY STILL HIGH DEMAND AND SECONDARY MARKETS TAKE OFF "The investment volume is high, the vacancy rate is decreasing and yields are dropping." As a result of the high demand for and limited supply of prime investment objects, some investors have entered the secondary markets at a large scale. Our focus article in this issue elaborates on this subject and presents evidence for volumes in secondary markets. All in all we experience a strong investment market, a bettering office letting market and a general optimism towards the economy and business expectations. We are merely a year from the threat of a collapse of the Euro, in the midst of a diplomatic - potentially very real crisis - with Russia and close to a full blow military operation in the Middle East, but these factors do not seem to discourage investors at the moment. Perhaps the expected stability in Denmark is one of the reasons for the high demand we experience. INVESTMENT MARKET OFFICE 2014 Q Q2 CHANGE Prime yield (Copenhagen City) 5.25% 5.00% bp Secondary yield (Copenhagen area) 7.25% 7.25% 0.00% Investment volume in mill. (estimated) % 8.80% bp Vacancy (Copenhagen City) RETAIL 2014 Q Q2 CHANGE Prime yield (Copenhagen City) 4.50% 4.25% Secondary yield (Copenhagen area) 6.25% 6.25% 0.00 bp Investment volume in mill. (estimated) bp TRANSACTION VOLUME LAST 12 MONTHS M This issue of our market report confirms some of the positive trends that we as advisers, the investors and other actors in the market for commercial real estate experience these days. The investment volume is high, the vacancy rate is decreasing and yields are dropping. Prime properties especially high street retail are in great demand which has resulted in yield compressions at an unprecedented pace. The spread compared to other European metropolis such as London, Paris, Munich and Stockholm is, however, still high and the Danish mortgage financing is very attractive, hence we might experience further price increases in the quarters to come Enjoy the report! Nicholas Thurø Managing Partner RED Property Advisers Retail Office Residential Hospitality Other

3 LIST OF CONTENT ISSUE III FOCUS... 1 MACROECONOMICS... 4 INVESTMENT MARKET OFFICE... 7 RESIDENTIAL... 8 RETAIL... 9 HOTEL TRANSACTIONS OCCUPIER MARKET OFFICE RETAIL RETAIL - FOOTFALL ANALYSIS APPENDIX - DANISH TRANSLATION DANSK VERSION AF FOKUS ARTIKEL... 22

4 ISSUE III FOCUS 1 / 24

5 DANSK VERSION PÅ SIDE 22 ISSUE III FOCUS THE SECONDARY MARKETS ARE BREATHING AGAIN For a long time the demand for prime assets has been high and now our latest transaction figures show that secondary located properties are being traded to a greater extent as well. During the period after the financial crisis there was a substantial decrease in transactions with secondary located properties, but this tendency has now changed and we expect the volume to increase further in the years to come. During the period after the financial crisis the real estate market was characterized by limited access to financing and high risk aversion among investors. The result was a market dominated by few big and financially strong players, whom mainly focuses on prime properties in Copenhagen. As shown in Figure 1 transactions with secondary properties decreased significantly from 2008 to During 2012 the market seemed to soften up and especially during 2013 a significant bettering was observed with a transaction volume for secondary located properties in Greater Copenhagen that reached approx. DKK 2.5bn cf. Figure 1. Based on the transaction volume for the first 6 months of 2014 (DKK 1.9bn) we expect this positive trend to continue and the transaction volume in 2014 for secondary located commercial properties to subseed "..attracts more investors looking to achieve a high return on investment..." This development has various reasons. Primarily it is a result of a limited supply of prime properties compared to demand. As a result of the lack of prime properties the yield was compressed, which has lead the investors to search for new segments including secondary located properties in order to achieve higher yields. Due to the fact that mortgage loans for secondary located properties has been difficult to obtain, unless there was an existing loan that could FIGURE 1: SECONDARY LOCATED OFFICE PROPERTIES IN GREATER COPENHAGEN M DKK Source: E RED Property Advisers be taken over, investors haven t sought this segment during the recent years. If mortgage cannot be achieved the acquisition must be financed with equity. This results in a lower return on equity compared to properties where mortgaging is e.g. 60 % of the purchase price. Recently, financially strong and more risk-tolerant investors such as Briggen, M7 / Oaktree, Wihlborgs and Niam have made investments in more secondary office areas, which has resulted in a greater confidence in the present market. This helps to increase transparency in the market and facilitating access to finance, which attracts more investors looking to achieve a high return on investment in secondary locations. FINANSIEL STABILITET SELLS OUT Since 2008, the market has also been strongly influenced by the liquidation company of the State, Finansiel Stabilitet. This has increased the supply and, with all things being equal, put pressure on the prices in the areas where Finansiel Stabilitet had bundles of properties sold. During the recent quarters Finansiel Stabilitet has liquidated massively and it is expected that Finansiel Stabilitet will be phased out during This will bring the market one step closer to a "natural" condition. It should further be mentioned that of all transactions with secondary located office properties in Greater Copenhagen the part of which Finansiel Stabilitet was liquidating was 13.7% in 2013 and only 8.3% in 2014 so far. Likewise the focus on liquidation of Finansiel Stabilitet has contributed to an increased interest from a number of foreign investors. This has had a positive impact in the investment market in the form of new foreign entrants. POSITIVE TENDENCIES IN THE MARKET A number of economic indicators seem to support that the positive trend in the secondary markets will continue. For a while economists have announced that the Danish economy is recovering and the year of 2014 is expected to experience the highest growth since These positive outlooks for the Danish economy are also supported by the consumer behaviour. As illustrated in Figure 2, the sale of passenger cars are at the highest level in the past 10 years and has increased nearly 80% since the 2 / 24

6 crisis. Moreover, the percentage of more expensive cars has increased from 20% to nearly 25%. FIGURE 2: SUPPORTING PARAMETERS Index: 2009 = 100 The economy is far less pressured than before and companies are doing better. The number of newly established companies is at a higher level than in 2009 (see Figure 2). Furthermore, the number of bankruptcies is declining steadily. The level of bankruptcies is developing toward the same level as before the crisis, reflecting a stronger economy and an adjustment of the restrictive lending policy led by the banks during the years immediately after the housing bubble. The positive trends in the Danish economy and among Danish companies, combined with better financing possibilities, has left its mark in the real estate market - both in the private market and in the investment market. The number of forced sales with commercial properties increasing from 2007 to 2010 but has been decreasing ever since (Figure 2) with the expectation of further decrease in the coming years. Moreover, the percentage of forced sales on commercial properties is as low as 3.9% of the total forced sales for all properties, which is the lowest in the period between Based on the trends and expectations of the market as well as the economy, we have positive anticipations for the market in the coming years. A market characterized by less restrictive access to financing, more investors with different risk profiles and a significant increase in transactions with secondary commercial properties encourages optimism Source: Foreclosures - Commercial real estate Bankruptcies (companies) No. of private cars sold Statistics Denmark 3 / 24

7 MACROECONOMICS 4 / 24

8 MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW EXPECTATIONS In this issue of our market report the focus in the macro session is; What are the expectations within the economy? In macroeconomics, it is a well-known fact, that the economy is depending on expectations to a wide extend. Since the economy is highly influenced by consumer expectations, investor expectations and the generel behavior of businesses, economic expectations are of great importance to the market psychology. "...the expectations within the Danish business community are indeed positive." The figures show, in which direction several key parameters in the economy are expectedly moving according to more than 500 leaders in the Danish business community. The general economic cyclical forecast, which is an indicator for the GDP, has since 1 st quarter 2013 been at a positive level and was at 2.3 for 2 nd quarter a slight fall from the 1 st quarter level at 2.9. The expected employment for the 6 months to come is at the highest observed level since Further, the expectations to the operating profit compared to last year have increased more than 25 %. To summarize, the expectations within the Danish business community are indeed positive. The question is just whether or not the expectations will be converted to real figures. Despite positive expectations, the GDP only increased by 0.5% in the first half of 2014 due to a descrease in 2 nd quarter. However, the outlook for the GDP is positive and the GDP is expected to pick up by 1.4% in ECONOMIC CYCLICAL FORECAST (GDP INDICATOR) Source: EXPECTATION WITHIN THE ECONOMY (EMPLOYMENT: NET = RECRUITMENTS - DISMISSALS) Source: 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 Greens Analyseinstitut 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 Expectations for employment Greens Analyseinstitut 5 / 24

9 INVESTMENT MARKET 6 / 24

10 INVESTMENT MARKET - OFFICE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS COUNTS 50 % OF THE OFFICE INVESTMENTS Positive trends in both the labour market and in consumer confidence have helped keep the economic growth elevated. Office trading volumes in the second quarter where dampened slightly from first quarter, albeit offices remain one of the more sought after property segments. Despite the drop in 2 nd quarter the total volume for the year is higher than at the same time in INVESTOR DISTRIBUTION - LAST 12 MONTHS (TOTAL VOLUME: 7.5 BN DKK) 6% 2% "Investors interest in Copenhagen City Centre is expected to remain high..." 1% 19% 50% 16% Driven by domestic buyers, investor focus remains on high-quality, well-located properties in Copenhagen City and the harbour areas. However, due to several reasons the secondary market is becomming more attractive (cf. focus article). The prime yield went down in 2 nd quarter from 5.25 % to 5.00 % for Copenhagen City. Secondary yields were stable too. Thus, the yield spread remains relatively large and the 'first-mover' investor may profit of relatively high yields. Investors interest in the Copenhagen City Centre is expected to remain high and the increasing demand combined with limited numbers of prime assets may result in yield compression in Further we expect a number of foreign investors to enter the office property market, in absence of especially prime retail assets. The most significant transaction in the past quarter is the 735 M portfolio acquisition of former SAS-buildings in Kastrup near the airport bought by PFA and Thylander. The seller of the portfolio was Landic Properties. 6% Developer Institutional investor Private investor Property fund Public institution Real estate company User Source: RED Property Advisers YIELDS SUBAREA Q Q Q Copenhagen City (CBD) 5.00% 5.25% 5.00% Copenhagen E & W 5.75% 5.75% 5.75% Frederiksberg 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% Harbour areas 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% South Harbour 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% Ørestad 6.00% 6.00% 5.75% Copenhagen N & NW 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% South and west of Copenhagen 7.75% 7.25% 7.25% North of Copenhagen 5.25% 5.25% 5,25% 7 / 24

11 INVESTMENT MARKET - RESIDENTIAL THE LARGEST INVESTMENT SEGMENT THE LAST 12 MONTHS Within the residential investment market property funds, real estate companies and intuitional investor continues to be the dominant investors, but also private investors have their market share. INVESTOR DISTRIBUTION - LAST 12 MONTHS (TOTAL VOLUME: 9.6 BN DKK) In the first half of 2014 DKK 2.9 bn net worth of residential properties were traded in Greater Copenhagen. Compared to the first half of 2013 it is a decrease of DKK 1.2 bn. The total transaction volume in Denmark for the first half of 2014 was DKK 4.5 bn compared to DKK 4.9 bn for the same period last year. 28% 2% 32% "..there is generally a shortage of housing in the capital.." 28% 1% 9% The investor-demand is still present, especially in (greater) Copenhagen, and is expected to continue to be so. Due to the fact that net 10-11,000 citizens per year is expected to move to Copenhagen, residential properties in Copenhagen are considered to be low-risk asset and attracts several investor types. Thus, the reason for the decreasing transaction volume in greater Copenhagen should be found in a relatively low supply rather than a decreasing demand. Institutional investor Other Private investor Property fund Real estate company User Source: RED Property Advisers Prime yields and rent levels were stable the past quarter. PRIME MARKET RENT - DKK/SQM SUBAREA Q Copenhagen City 1,800-2,000 Copenhagen E & W 1,600-1,800 Frederiksberg 1,800-2,000 North Harbour 1,800-2,000 South Harbour 1,400-1,600 Copenhagen S 1,400-1,600 Copenhagen N & NW 1,400-1,600 North of Copenhagen 1,700-1,900 YIELDS SUBAREA Q Copenhagen Area - rent control % Copenhagen Suburb - rent control % Copenhagen Area - market rent 4.00% Copenhagen Suburb - market rent 4.50% 8 / 24

12 INVESTMENT MARKET - RETAIL HIGH ACTIVTY AMONG INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS The investment activity has indeed been high in the past months for retail investment properties. In the second quarter of the year the activity accelerated considerably, with approx. DKK 2.4 bn worth of retail assets. The international investors were once again active in the market, underlined by Cordea Savills DKK 1.2 bn investment in prime retail in Copenhagen City, including the acquisition from Meyer Bergman of 5 retail properties all located on Købmagergade for DKK 522 m. In total, 68% of the total retail transactions in first half of 2014 were performed by international investors. INVESTOR DISTRIBUTION - LAST 12 MONTHS (TOTAL VOLUME 8.5 BN DKK) 18% 46% "...the prime yield is under pressure and is expected to decrease further." 31% 5% The investment market is generally stable, but due to the high demand for high street units at Strøget and Købmagergade the outlook is promising. Indeed, Denmark will remain a safe market to invest in and activity is likely to stay high throughout the year. Due to a limited supply compared to demand of prime retail assets, the prime yield is under pressure and is expected to decrease further. Institutional investor Property fund Source: RED Property Advisers Private investor Real estate company We forecast the transaction volume for more secondary located retail properties to increase, due to the lack of prime retail properties and due to the generel "hunt for yield". YIELDS CITY STREET/SUBMARKET Q Q Q Copenhagen Strøget (incl. Vimmelskaftet) 5.00% 5.00% 4.25% Copenhagen Strøget (secondary pedestrian area) 5.00% 5.25% 5.00% Copenhagen Østerbrogade 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% Copenhagen Nørrebrogade 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% Copenhagen Købmagergade 5.00% 5.00% 4.25% Copenhagen Lyngby 5.50% 5.50% 5.75% Copenhagen Suburban 6.50% 6.75% 6.75% Aarhus Søndergade 5.25% 5.25% 5.25% 9 / 24

13 Købmagergade was part of a portfolio acquired by Cordea Savills 10 / 24

14 INVESTMENT MARKET - HOTEL IMPROVEMENT IN PERFORMANCE OF HOTELS IN COPENHAGEN In Denmark there are more than 43,000 hotel rooms to host foreign visitors. In Copenhagen alone there are approx. 20,000 hotel rooms. During the first 6 months of 2014 the hotels in Copenhagen have managed to increase their performance in all important parameters compared to the same period in In average, ADR increased with 7% while RevPAR increased 13% - indicating higher room prices and optimization of the hotel s revenue. Also the percentage use of capacity increased - from 59% to 63% - which displays an ability to increase the sale of hotel rooms more than the increase in capacity; i.e. higher demand. Due to the tourism seasons, the ADR, RevPAR and the use of capacity are significantly higher in May and June compared to the months from January to April. FIGURE 1: CAPACITY OF HOTEL ROOMS No. of hotel rooms Use of capacity in % E 2015E 2016E (est.) (est.) (est.) Denmark Copenhagen Use of capacity, Denmark Use of capacity, Copenhagen HOTEL CAPACITY Source: HVS London A hotel s ability to generate profit is highly affected by the capacity of hotel rooms and therefore the hotel's ability to utilize the demand. The latter is further affected by external and macroeconomic factors such as consumer confidence. Despite the financial crisis and a significantly increasing number of bankruptcies from , the capacity of hotel rooms has been increasing at a higher pace than before the crisis especially in Copenhagen, where the capacity has increased with more than 6,000 rooms since This is an increase of 23% compared to 16.5% for Denmark in total in the same period. The growth in capacity is primarily driven by large and financially strong hoteloperators, such as Arp-Hansen and Cabinn, who also represent a great part of the pipeline. As illustrated in Figure 1 the capacity of hotel rooms is estimated to increase further with at least 7.6% in Denmark and 6.9% in Copenhagen over the next three years. At a European level more than 904 new hotels are in pipeline, which extends the total European capacity with more than 145,465 rooms. The greatest growth in capacity is expected to be in UK with 41,831 new rooms in pipeline. Following UK both Russia, Germany, Turkey, Italy and France are expected to increase with at least 4,000 rooms each. DEMAND In 2013 nearly 13 M people stayed in a hotel in Denmark. Approx. 7 M were of domestic origin and 6 M were foreign. The hotels are therefore not only affected by the economic situation in Denmark but just as much in foreign countries. When analyzing segments with regards to turnover it is important to notice, that guests on vacation has a lower daily spending than business travelers. In 2012 a visitor on vacation had an average daily spending of 1,230 DKK and a business traveler 1,813 DKK, while a congress member spent 3,100 DKK daily. This difference TABLE 2: HOTEL PERFORMANCE, COPENHAGEN - KEY FIGURES January Februar March April May June Use of capacity (in %) 45% 50% 47% 52% 50% 59% 61% 63% 71% 75% 78% 80% ADR in DKK RevPAR in DKK ADR: Average Daily Rate RevPAR: Revenue pr. available room Source: NHC & Statistics Denmark 11 / 24

15 can be explained from the fact that people on vacation often travel together with family and friends, with whom they stay in the same hotel room, while a business traveler or a congress member often travels alone and buys more expensive food. As shown in figure 2 the distribution of segments is very even in Copenhagen. In Copenhagen 55% of all hotel visitors are related to vacation while 43% are related to business. FIGURE 2: DISTRIBUTION OF VISITORS IN COPENHAGEN 8% 2% "Since 2009 the capacity of hotel rooms has increased 14%..." 31% Sweden is the biggest foreign market for hotel guests staying in Denmark followed by the other neighbor-countries Norway, UK and Germany. Together they account for more than 50% of all fore-ign visitors staying in a hotel. Besides a growth in number of hotel visitors from those markets, there has been a large increase in number of hotel visitors coming from the BRIK countries and strong economies such as Austria and Switzerland. The fastest growing market is China with an increase in hotel visitors of 182% since Since 2009 the capacity of hotel rooms has increased 14% compared to an increase in total number of hotel visitors of 29%. Together with the increasing demand for hotel rooms, this indicates that the hotels will be able to keep increasing their use of capacity and as a result of this bettering their performance. 47% 12% Business and congress (individual) Business and congress (group) Vacation (individual) Vacation (group) Other Source: Statistics Denmark FIGURE 3: NUMBER AND ORIGIN OF HOTEL GUESTS IN DENMARK No. of visitors Domestic International Total number of visitors Source: Statistics Denmark 12 / 24

16 The office and retail project on Axeltorv 2 was recently sold to ATP and PFA for approx. DKK 1.5 bn. 13 / 24

17 TRANSACTIONS 14 / 24

18 TRANSACTIONS OFFICE STREET NAME LOCATION DATE Vallensbæk Company House SIZE (SQM) PRICE (M DKK) VENDOR TYPE VENDOR NAME BUYER TYPE BUYER NAME Vallensbæk 2014/Q3 8, Developer NCC Property Development Institutional investor PKA Landskronagade CPH East 2014/Q3 14, Institutional investor MP Pension Institutional investor PensionDenmark Holmboes Allé Horsens 2014/Q3 12,000 Conf. User Horsens Kommune Private investor Private investor Borups Alle 177 CPH NW 2014/Q3 26,000 Conf. User KPMG Institutional investor ATP SAS Portfolio Kastrup 2014/Q2 88, Real estate company Landic Property Institutional investor PFA and Thylander Kirstinehøj 56 Kastrup 2014/Q2 2, Developer Confidential Private investor Private investor Esplanaden 6-8 CPH City 2014/Q2 9, Institutional investor Lægernes Pensionskasse Real estate company Jeudan Skolevej 6 Glostrup 2014/Q2 6, User University College Capital Property fund Niam Havnegade / Tordenskjoldsgade 34 CPH City 2014/Q2 5,750 Conf. Institutional investor Danica Pension Real estate company Jeudan Dusager 25 Aarhus 2014/Q2 11, Developer Dansk Erhvervsprojekt Institutional investor Industriens Pension Nybrovej 116 Kgs. Lyngby 2014/Q2 10, Bankruptcy Phil og Søn Property fund Niam Artillerivej 86 CPH SW 2014/Q2 16, Institutional investor Finansiel Stabilitet Real estate company Private investor Kultorvet & Rosengården 2-4 CPH City 2014/Q2 3, Real estate company Goldschmidt Ejendomme Institutional investor Pensionskassen For Lægesekretærer Otto Mønsteds Plads 11 CPH W 2014/Q1 10, Institutional investor Confidential Institutional investor AP Pension HOTEL HOTEL NAME LOCATION DATE PRICE PR. ROOM (DKK) PRICE (M DKK) VENDOR NAME BUYER NAME First Hotel Mayfair CPH W 2014/Q2 Confidential Confidential K/S NorGani Hotel ApS First Hotels Hotel Kong Frederik CPH W 2014/Q1 809, Norden Fritz Henrik Schur Hotel Hvide Huse Aalborg 2013/Q4 Confidential Confidential Helnan Gruppen CALUM Hotel Aarslev Brabrand 2013/Q4 Confidential Confidential Helnan Gruppen Danske Hoteller Hotel Neptun CPH City 2013/Q3 917, Sold by creditor Hildebrandt Family Ledernes Konference Center Odense 2013/Q3 Confidential Confidential Ledernes Aktieselskab H. C. Andersens Kongres Center A/S Skt. Petri CPH City 2013/Q2 2,037,201 2,300* First Hotels Choice Vesterbro CPH W 2013/Q2 2,037,201 2,300* First Hotels Choice Amaranten (Sweden) Stockholm 2013/Q2 2,037,201 2,300* First Hotels Choice First Hotel Kolding Kolding 2013/Q2 643, Slotmøllen Nordbo Huse Scandic Esbjerg Esbjerg 2013/Q2 625, Private investor Private investor Kokkedal Slot Hørsholm 2013/Q1 Confidential Confidential Kjær & Lassen M. Goldschmidt Ejendomme * Total portfolio price 15 / 24

19 RETAIL STREET NAME LOCATION DATE SIZE (SQM) PRICE (M DKK) VENDOR TYPE VENDOR NAME BUYER TYPE BUYER NAME Lyngby Station (Arcade) Kgs. Lyngby 2014/Q3 8,369 Conf. Public institution DSB Property fund NREP Østergade CPH City 2014/Q3 1, Real estate company Aberdeen Property fund Cordea Savills Disa grunden Herlev 2014/Q2 44,000 Conf. Real estate company Nordicom Property fond NREP Frederiksgade 25 Aarhus 2014/Q2 4, Real estate company Private investor Real estate company AAA United Købmagergade 15 CPH City 2014/Q Property fund Meyer Bergman Property fund Cordea Savills Købmagergade CPH City 2014/Q2 5, Property fund Meyer Bergman Property fund Cordea Savills Købmagergade 39 CPH City 2014/Q2 1, Private investor Private investor Private investor Private investor Købmagergade 48 CPH City 2014/Q2 2, Property fund Meyer Bergman Property fund Cordea Savills Købmagergade 60 / Østergade 38 CPH City 2014/Q2 6, Institutional investor ATP Property fund Cordea Savills Amagertorv 29 m. fl. CPH City 2014/Q1 5,926 Conf. Real estate company Confidential Real estate company Jorcks Ejendomsselskab RESIDENTIAL STREET NAME LOCATION DATE SIZE (SQM) PRICE (M DKK) VENDOR TYPE VENDOR NAME BUYER TYPE BUYER NAME Residential Portfolio Various cities 2014/Q2 73,000 1,900* Institutional investor PensionDanmark Property fund NREP A.D. Burcharths Vej Kolding 2014/Q2 7,760 Conf. Institutional investor Lægernes Pensionskasse Real estate company Confidential Overgaden oven vandet/ Herman Triers plads CPH Area 2014/Q2 14, Institutional investor Unipension Property fund CapMan Søborg Huse Søborg 2014/Q2 3, Developer Sjælsø management Private investor Private investor Østerbrogade / Hornemansgade 36 CPH East 2014/Q2 8, Institutional investor MP Pension Real estate company Thylander Residential Portfolio CPH Area 2014/Q1 33, Property fund Aage V. Jensens Fond Institutional investor Sampension Strandvejen 82-86, 153 & Frederikkevej 1 Hellerup 2014/Q1 7, Institutional investor Nykredit Real estate company Goldschmidt Ejendomme Amaliegade 24 CPH City 2014/Q1 2, Private investor Stonewall Estate A/S Private investor Private investor * Estimated price 16 / 24

20 OCCUPIER MARKET 17 / 24

21 OCCUPIER MARKET - OFFICE HIGH ACTIVITY IN COPENHAGEN CITY AND AN OVERALL STABLE OFFICE MARKET The Danish economy improved further in the first half of 2014, albeit moderate compared with the levels seen in pre-recession years. The office property sector had more or less unchanged conditions in 2 nd quarter the market, which is still tenant-driven, is characterized by a need for incentives on offers, including fit-outs and rent-free periods, although prime rents remain unchanged. The occupier take-up in the office sector was robust over the 2 nd quarter of 2014, with just over 334,000 sq. m of space leased. The figure helped push the first half of 2014 s gross take-up volume ahead by 43% compared with the same time last year. Copenhagen s vacancy rate went down in 2 nd and 3 rd quarter, with the most notable decrease seen in the city centre whit a vacancy just under 9% in 3 rd quarter. The properties available on the market are dominated by bigger premises, primarily as smaller occupiers remain active whereas international tenants are more hesitant. SIGNIFICANT LEASES STREET NAME LOCATION DATE SIZE (SQM) LANDLORD TENANT Hovedgaden 630 (Hedehusene) Greater CPH 2014/Q3 16,000 Danske Bank DSV Grønningen 15 CPH City 2014/Q3 800 M. Goldschmidt Mærsk Kornmarksvej 1 Greater CPH 2014/Q3 28,500 Tribona N/A Stamholmen (Copenhagen Business Park) Greater CPH 2014/Q3 15,000 Valad Europe IF Skadeforsikring (renewal) Gammel Køge Landevej 22 CPH Area 2014/Q3 2,059 DFE Københavns Brandvæsen Valby Maskinfabrik CPH Area 2014/Q3 2,000 DFE GoExcellent Valby Maskinfabrik CPH Area 2014/Q3 1,032 DFE Køge Handelsskole Portland Tower CPH Area 2014/Q3 Confidential PensionDanmark, ATP & PFA Dansk Standard Havneholmen CPH City 2014/Q3 10,000 Skanska Pandora Niels Juels Gade 9-13 CPH City 2014/Q2 1,100 SEB Forsvaret Axeltorv 2 CPH Area 2014/Q2 16,000 ATP & PFA Gorrissen Federspiel Hedegaardsvej 88 CPH Area 2014/Q2 5,000 PFA og Thylander Vestas Dusager 4 Aarhus N 2014/Q2 4,900 ATP Vestas og Mitsubishi Nansensgade 19 CPH City 2014/Q2 7,000 Norrporten Cph Business Kalvebod Brygge CPH City 2014/Q2 4,100 Norrporten Patienterstatningen Lautrupvang 1 Greater CPH 2014/Q2 15,000 Wihlborgs Schneider Electric Delta Park - Vallensbæk Company House Vallensbæk 2014/Q2 2,000 PKA Pension Ricoh Danmark A/S Østergade 26 CPH City 2014/Q2 1,300 Kirkbi Bygningsstyrelsen PRIME RENT - DKK/SQM SUBAREA Q Copenhagen City 1,650 Copenhagen E & W 1,250 Frederiksberg 1,200 Harbour areas 1,800 South Harbour 1,250 Ørestad 1,200 Copenhagen N & NW 950 South and west of Copenhagen 900 North of Copenhagen 1,250 VACANCY RATES AND UNEMPLOYMENT Office vacancy rates compared to unemployment in Copenhagen 12,00% 10,00% 8% 8,00% 6% 6,00% 4% 4,00% 2% 2,00% 0% 0,00% Unemployment Copenhagen Area Office vacancy Copenhagen City Office vacancy Copenhagen Area 18 / 24

22 OCCUPIER MARKET - RETAIL INCREASING DEMAND FOR SECONDARY PEDESTRIAN AREA Economic activity was boosted by a recovery in several sectors and consumer spending increasing again by 2.0% following two consecutive quarters of contractions. The retail sector continued to record positive growth in 2 nd quarter as sales grew by 2.6% in April and 1.9% in May. "Occupier interest in the pedestrian areas of Copenhagen was indeed strong over the 2 nd quarter." SIGINIFICANT LEASES STREET NAME LOCATION DATE SIZE (SQM) NEW TENANT Købmagergade 54 CPH City 2014/Q3 282 Ecco Gothergade 43 CPH City 2014/Q3 139 Cykel Mesteren Fiolstræde 5 (expansion) CPH City 2014/Q3 579 Netto Købmagergade 32 CPH City 2014/Q3 227 Profil Optik Højbro Plads 4 CPH City 2014/Q2 1,500 Moss Copenhagen Østergade 7 CPH City 2014/Q2 295 Michael Kors Kr. Bernikows Gade 6 CPH City 2014/Q2 200 Hästens Sortedams Dossering 3-9 CPH N 2014/Q2 N/A Madklubben Vesterbrogade 82 CPH W 2014/Q2 1,149 Normal ApS Christian IX's Gade 8 CPH City 2014/Q2 113 Isabel Marant Overall the market was largely stable in the past months, but prime rents in high streets is expected to increase due to the high demand and low supply. Occupier interest in the pedestrian areas of Copenhagen was indeed strong over the 2 nd quarter. Among others Moss Copenhagen is opening a 1,500 sq. m Flagship Store at Højbro Plads 4. Further, the demand for secondary pedestrian locations such as Pilestræde and Fiolstræde was again evident, underlining a broadening in retailer interest outside the best pitches. Tenants are particularly searching for locations with a distinctive appearance in order to attract interest. Isabel Marant opened their first store in Denmark in late August located at the corner of Ny Østergade and Christian IX Gade. However, the market still has to contend with a limited supply of prime space, which forces retailers to seek space in secondary areas. PRIME RENT - DKK/SQM SUBAREA Q Q CHANGE Strøget - low end 10,000 10, % Strøget - average 17,500 17, % Strøget - high end 23,500 23, % Købmagergade - low end 7,500 7, % Købmagergade - average 14,000 14, % Købmagergade - high end 17,500 17, % Strøget (secoundary pedestrain area) 6,250 6, % Østerbrogade 2,600 2, % Nørrebrogade 1,900 1, % VACANCY RATES AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Retail 5,00% vacancy rates compared to consumer confidence in Copenhagen 4,50% 4,00% 3,50% 3,00% 2,50% 2,00% 1,50% 1,00% 0,50% 0,00% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Consumer confidence index Retail vacancy Copenhagen City Retail vacancy Copenhagen Area 19 / 24

23 FOOTFALL ANALYSIS ANALYSIS OF THE LARGER PEDESTRIAN SHOPPING STREETS The footfall activity during the summer has increased the average number of pedestrians per hour around Amager Torv (see counting point 2). However, despite the good weather the average number of pedestrians at counting point 3 (Frederiksborggade/Købmagergade) has dropped further. The main reason is to be found in the construction work at Nørreport which Købmagergade by Kultorvet still suffers heavily from. The construction site has narrowed down the street entrance to only a few meters. Despite this, counting point 3 remains the second busiest point after Amagertorv. Counting point 1 and 4 are more or less stable. Comparing April-August 2014 with the same period last year, we see the same picture. Amagertorv keeps attracting more and more pedestrians and the average level for pedestrians at the counting point (no. 2) has increased by approx. 800 persons per hour. On the other hand, as mentioned, Købmagergade by Kultorvet has decreased by 330 persons per hour at counting point 3, since the same period last year. AVERAGE PEDESTRIAN COUNT OVER THE SUMMER AREA NUMBER ON MAP STREET NAME APRIL-AUGUST 2013 APRIL-AUGUST 2014 CHANGE FOOTFALL COUNT Number of pedestrians per hour counted on specific locations Østergade 4,236 4, Amagertorv/Østergade 6,165 6, Frederiksborggade/Købmagergade 5,379 5, Frederiksberggade 5,400 5, Friday in September Friday in November Friday in Febuary Friday in May Friday in July C 3 C 4 C 10 C 28 C Methodology RED carries out the counts on Fridays at 4 pm with the purpose of registering a development and conclude a level of footfall at different locations on Strøget and Købmagergade. The map shows the 4 counting points. The footfall is counted manually from both directions. Israels Plads 4 Frederiksborggade/Købmagergade Østergade Frederiksberggade Amagertorv/Østergade Nørreport Frederiksberggade Gammeltorv Frederikborggade Nytorv Københavns Domhus 3 Nygade Kultorvet Vimmelskaftet Trinitatiskirken Rundetårn Købmagergade Helligåndskirken 2 Amagertorv Illum Højbro Plads 1 Østergade Magasin Kongens Nytorv Det Kgl. Teater A S P T a d l i S T g i m I O T r a a y s Rådhuspladsen Københavns Rådhus Christansborg 20 / 24 W T s g l h p m

24 APPENDIX - DANISH TRANSLATION 21 / 24

25 FOKUS RINGENE BREDER SIG - DE SEKUNDÆRE MARKEDER ÅNDER IGEN Der er tegn på, at ringene breder sig i økonomien. Efterspørgslen efter prime assets på ejendomsmarkedet har længe været høj, men vores seneste analyser viser, at der nu i langt højere grad også handles flere sekundært beliggende ejendomme. Man oplevede i årene efter krisen en enorm nedgang i salget af sekundært beliggende erhvervsejendomme, men denne tendens er nu vendt og forventes fortsat at være opadgående i de kommende år. I årene efter krisen var ejendomsmarkedet præget af begrænset adgang til finansiering kombineret med en lav risikovillighed, hvorfor markedet var domineret af få store spillere, med et hovedfokus på prime ejendomme i København. Det fremgår tydeligt af figur 1, hvordan salget af sekundære kontorejendomme i Storkøbenhavn faldt i perioden I 2012 synes markedet dog at bløde op og specielt i 2013 kan der konstateres en markant fremgang, hvor transaktionsvolumen nåede et niveau på ca. 2,5 mia. kr. for sekundære kontorejendomme i Københavnsområdet (jf. figur 1). Vi mener, denne tendens vil fortsætte og at transaktionsvolumen for sekundære erhvervsejendomme i 2014 forventeligt bliver endnu højere, hvor transaktionsvolumen for første halvår allerede er nået et niveau på 1,9 mia. kr. "...tiltrækker flere investorer med udsigt til at kunne opnå et højt gearet afkast." FIGUR 1: SEKUNDÆRT BELIGGENDE KONTOREJENDOMME I STORKØBENHAVN Mio. M DKK kr. Kilde: E RED Property Advisers Der er flere årsager til denne udvikling. Først og fremmest skal det ses som et resultat af et manglende udbud af prime ejendomme i forhold til efterspørgslen. Eksempelvis er der en langt højere efterspørgsel efter prime ejendomme i indre København end udbuddet kan modsvare. Det manglende udbud, har skabt et pres på afkastet i en nedadgående retning, hvorfor flere investorer søger nye segmenter, herunder mere sekundært beliggende ejendomme, for at opnå højere direkte afkast. Sekundært beliggende ejendomme er et segment investorer ikke har efterspurgt de senere år, da belåning (gearing) af denne type ejendomme har været nærmest umuligt, med mindre der allerede var et eksisterende lån der kunne overtages. Når der ikke kan opnås finansiering, skal købet finansieres med egenkapital, hvilket resulterer i et lavt afkast på egenkapitalen sammenholdt med ejendomme, hvor der kan opnås en finansiering på eksempelvis 60 % af købesummen. Der er kommet større tillid til markedet i takt med, at kapitalstærke og mere risikovillige investorer som Briggen, M7/Oaktree, Wihlborgs og Niam har foretaget investeringer i de mere sekundære kontorområder, hvilket er medvirkende til at øge transparensen og omsætteligheden i markedet, hvilket letter adgangen til finansiering, og som igen tiltrækker flere investorer med udsigt til at kunne opnå et højt gearet afkast. FINANSIEL STABILITET SÆLGER UD Siden 2008 har markedet desuden været stærkt påvirket af statens afviklingsselskab Finansiel Stabilitet. Dette har øget udbuddet og, alt andet lige, lagt et pres på priserne i nogle områder, hvor Finansiel Stabilitet har haft en række ejendomme, der skulle afvikles. Finansiel Stabilitet har over de seneste kvartaler afviklet kraftigt og det forventes, at Finansiel Stabilitet vil være afviklet i løbet af Dette vil bringe markedet et skridt nærmere en naturlig tilstand. Hertil skal tilføjes, at andelen af handler med sekundært placerede kontorejendomme i Storkøbenhavn med Finansiel Stabilitet som afvikler, kun var 13,7 % i 2013 og i 2014 er faldet til 8,3 %. Finansiel Stabilitets fokus på afvikling har samtidigt bidraget til en øget interesse fra en række udenlandske investorer. Dette har haft en positiv påvirkning på udviklingen på investeringsmarkedet, i form af nye, udenlandske aktører på markedet. POSITIVE TENDENSER I MARKEDET En række økonomiske nøgletal synes at underbygge, at den positive trend på de sekundære markeder vil fortsætte. Længe har økonomer annonceret, at dansk økonomi er i bedring og 2014 forventes at blive det bedste vækstsår siden De positive forventninger 22 / 24

26 til dansk økonomi kan da også konstateres hos forbrugerne. Som det fremgår af figur 2, er eksempelvis salget af personbiler på dets højeste de sidste 10 år og er steget næsten 80 % siden krisen. Heraf er andelen af dyrere biler steget fra 20 % til næsten 25 %. Økonomien er langt fra så presset som tidligere og virksomheder klarer sig i stigende grad bedre. Antallet af nystartede virksomheder er på et højere niveau end 2009 (se figur 2). Ydermere er antallet af konkurser støt faldende. Niveauet for konkurser er på vej mod det niveau vi oplevede før krisen, hvilket vidner om en stærkere økonomi og lempelse i den hårde udlånspolitik bankerne førte i årene umiddelbart efter boligboblen. Disse positive tendenser i dansk økonomi og blandt danske virksomheder kombineret med bedre finansieringsmuligheder har sat sit præg på ejendomsmarkedet både for private boliger men også for investeringsejendomme. Efter at have været stigende fra 2007 til 2010, har antallet af tvangsauktioner for erhvervsejendomme været faldende siden (figur 2) med forventninger om yderligere fald de kommende år. Endvidere er andelen af tvangsauktioner for erhvervsejendomme på sit laveste i hele perioden med kun 3,9 % af de samlede tvangsauktioner. FIGUR 2: UNDERBYGGENDE PARAMETRE Indeks: 2009= Tvangsauktioner - Erhvervsejendomme Konkurser (virksomheder) Antal solgte personbiler Kilde: Danmarks Statistikbank På baggrund af tendenserne og forventninger i markedet såvel som i økonomien, har vi positive forventninger til markedet i de kommende år. Et marked præget af lempeligere adgang til finansiering, flere investorer med forskellige risikoprofiler og en signifikant stigning i salget af sekundære erhvervsejendomme er blandt de tendenser, der giver anledning til optimisme. 23 / 24

27 TAK FOR STEMMERNE Igen i år har vi haft fat i hammer og søm, for at få vores to nyeste anerkendelser op at hænge. Vi er glade for de nye awards, som EUROMONEY Awards for Excellence har tildelt os i kategorierne, Best Advisor for Agency & Letting in Denmark og Best Advisor for Valuation in Denmark. THANK YOU FOR THE VOTES We are pleased with the new awards which EUROMONEY Awards for Excellence has awarded us in the categories, Best Advisor for Agency & Letting in Denmark and Best Advisor for Valuation in Denmark. 24 / 24

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