Planning under Uncertainty

Transkript

1 Planning under Uncertainty Securing reliable Electricity Supply in Liberalized Energy Markets (Paper 07GM0778) Antje Orths Peter B Eriksen Vladislav Akhmatov NORDEL UPS UCTE

2 Agenda The Danish Power System brief overview Measures in Denmark: - Reduction of Uncertainty - Considering Uncertainty (applying Scenarios, Tools, Methods) Perspective

3 Present challenges with the Danish electricity system worldwide highest wind penetration high share of large and small scale CHP transit area between hydro and thermal small price areas in large markets Boundary: hydro/thermal Boundary: Nordel/UCTE Boundary: NordPool and Continental market systems TWh

4 Power Balance 2005 Two synchronous areas: West: Consumption MW Central power plants 3400 MW Local CHP units 1700 MW Wind turbines 2400 MW penetration Wind: % CHP: % East: Consumption MW Central power plants 3800 MW Local CHP units 650 MW Wind turbines 750 MW 4100 MW ex: 40 of prod im: 70 of cons 1400 MW Central power plants Local plants Wind turbines 1000/950 MW 460/490 MW 1300/1700 MW penetration Wind: 30 85% ex: 43 of prod CHP: 25 74% im: 70 of cons 800/1200 MW 550 MW im-/ export [MW]

5 The Danish transmission system and offshore windparks Discussed Discussed Future Future Locations Locations Areal Areal ca ca km km 2 2 Power Power ca ca MW MW Norge 1000 Norge MW 1000 MW Bredkær Starbakke Bredkær Starbakke Sverige 740 Sverige 740 MW Bagsværdgård Nibstrup Dybvad Hareskovgård Bagsværdgård Hvorupgård Nibstrup Dybvad Hareskovgård Måløvgård Glentegård Fredensdal Hvorupgård + Måløvgård Glentegård Klim Fjordholme Fredensdal 3,000 3,000 MW MW Svanemølleværket FrøstrupKlim Fjordholme Skansen Vester Hassing Bellahøj Svanemølleværket Frøstrup Håndværkervej Skansen Vendsysselværket Vester Hassing Bellahøj kbst Ballerupgård Lindevang Amagerværket Nors Håndværkervej Ådalen Ålborg Vendsysselværket Øst kbst Ballerupgård Dyregård Lindevang Nors Ådalen Ålborg Øst Amagerværket Vilsted Dyregård Ejbygård Vilsted Ferslev Vejleå Ejbygård Ferslev H C Ørsted Værket Bedsted Mosbæk Vejleå Brøndbygård Vigerslev kbst H C Ørsted Værket Bedsted Mosbæk Tinghøj Ishøj Brøndbygård Kastrup kbst Vigerslev kbst Tinghøj Ishøj Avedøreværket Amager kbst Kastrup kbst Amager kbst Bilstrup Flaskegård Avedøreværket Bilstrup Flaskegård Struer Loldrup Hornbæk Mesballe København Tjele Hornbæk Moselund Mesballe Åstrup Struer Loldrup København Tjele Moselund Åstrup Tange Tange Idomlund Studstrupværket Studstrup- Sverige Idomlund Trige Trige Mollerup værket 1900 Sverige MW Bjørnholt Hasle Mollerup Herning 1900 MW Bjørnholt Hasle Videbæk Herning Høskov Videbæk Hørning Høskov Teglstrupgård Valseværket Mårslet Hørning Teglstrupgård Valseværket Mårslet Borup Sperrestrupgård Kyndbyværket Borup Stasevang Askær Malling Sperrestrupgård Ølstykkegård Malling Kyndbyværket Stasevang Allerødgård Nr Asmindrup Askær Ølstykkegård Stovstrup Thyregod Hatting Gørløsegård Allerødgård Nr Asmindrup Thyregod Stovstrup Sdr Felding Hatting Lyngerup Gørløsegård Sdr Felding Skibbygård Lyngerup Kalundborg Torslunde Knabberup Skibbygård Hovegård Kalundborg Torslunde Knabberup Asnæsværket Asnæs- Kirkeskovgård Kamstrup Kamstrup Karlsgårde Hovegård Landerupgård Karlsgårde Revsing Landerupgård Ryttergård værket Kirkeskovgård Mosedegård Revsing Ryttergård Nyrup Jersie Mosedegård Estrupvej Endrup Andst Graderup Fynsværket Estrupvedrup Endrup Nyrup Spanager Jersie AndstBram-Skærbæk- værket Skærbæk- Hejninge Bjæverskov Spanager Graderup Fynsværket Odense Sydøst Ringsted Lykkegård Bramdrup Holsted Odense Sydøst Ringsted Lykkegård værket Holsted Fraugde Hejninge 50 kvbjæverskov Horns Rev Tyrstrup Kingstrup 50 kv Fraugde Rislev Haslev Horns A Rev Ribe Tyrstrup Kingstrup Magstrup Fensmark Rislev Haslev A Ribe Abildskov Stigsnæsværket 160 MW Magstrup Fensmark Abildskov Stigsnæsværket Øster- 160 MW Næstved Blangslev Næstved holm Østerholm Blangslev Svendborg Bredebro Kassø Enstedværket Svendborg Masnedøværket Bredebro Kassø Enstedværket Orehoved Masnedøværket Sverige Sverige Sønderborg Orehoved Eskilstrup Sønderborg Radsted Eskilstrup Vestlolland Radsted Idestrup 60 kv Vestlolland Idestrup 60 kv German plans plans (DENA (DENA study) study) 2020: Tyskland 2020: 1200 Tyskland MW 1200 MW + 20,000 MW MW (North & Baltic BalticSea) Skagerrak Skagerrak Governmental Energy Strategy 2025: 2025: Konti-Skan Konti-Skan 132/50 kv Rødby Rødby 132/50 kv Nysted 165 Nysted MW 165 MW 132/50 kv 132/50 kv 132 kv 132 kv Kontek Kontek Tyskland 600 Tyskland MW 600 MW

6 The Danish transmission system need for a stronger grid existing planned discussed Norge 1000 Norge MW 1000 MW Bredkær Starbakke Bredkær Starbakke Sverige 740 Sverige MW 740 MW Bagsværdgård Nibstrup Dybvad Hareskovgård Bagsværdgård Hvorupgård Nibstrup Dybvad Hareskovgård Måløvgård Glentegård Fredensdal Hvorupgård Måløvgård Glentegård Klim Fjordholme Fredensdal Svanemølleværket FrøstrupKlim Fjordholme Skansen Vester Hassing Bellahøj Svanemølleværket Frøstrup Håndværkervej Skansen Vendsysselværket Vester Hassing Bellahøj kbst Ballerupgård Lindevang Amagerværket Nors Håndværkervej Ådalen Ålborg Vendsysselværket Øst kbst Ballerupgård Dyregård Lindevang Nors Ådalen Ålborg Øst Amagerværket Vilsted Dyregård Ejbygård Vilsted Ferslev Vejleå Ejbygård Ferslev H C Ørsted Værket Bedsted Mosbæk Vejleå Brøndbygård Vigerslev kbst H C Ørsted Værket Bedsted Mosbæk Tinghøj Ishøj Brøndbygård Kastrup kbst Vigerslev kbst Tinghøj Ishøj Avedøreværket Amager kbst Kastrup kbst Amager kbst Bilstrup Flaskegård Avedøreværket Bilstrup Flaskegård Struer Loldrup Hornbæk Mesballe København Tjele Hornbæk Moselund Mesballe Åstrup Struer Loldrup København Tjele Moselund Åstrup Tange Tange Idomlund Studstrupværket Studstrup- Sverige Idomlund Trige Trige Mollerup værket 1900 Sverige MW Bjørnholt Hasle Mollerup Herning 1900 MW Bjørnholt Hasle Videbæk Herning Høskov Videbæk Hørning Høskov Teglstrupgård Valseværket Mårslet Hørning Teglstrupgård Valseværket Mårslet Borup Sperrestrupgård Borup Stasevang Askær Malling Kyndbyværket Sperrestrupgård Ølstykkegård Malling Kyndbyværket Stasevang Allerødgård Nr Asmindrup Askær Ølstykkegård Stovstrup Thyregod Hatting Gørløsegård Allerødgård Nr Asmindrup Thyregod Stovstrup Sdr Felding Hatting Lyngerup Gørløsegård Sdr Felding Skibbygård Lyngerup Kalundborg Torslunde Knabberup Skibbygård Hovegård Kalundborg Torslunde Knabberup Asnæsværket Asnæs- Kirkeskovgård Kamstrup Kamstrup Karlsgårde Hovegård Landerupgård Karlsgårde Revsing Landerupgård Ryttergård værket Kirkeskovgård Mosedegård Revsing Ryttergård Nyrup Jersie Mosedegård Estrupvej Endrup Andst Graderup Fynsværket Estrupvedrup Endrup Nyrup Spanager Jersie AndstBram-Skærbæk- værket Skærbæk- Hejninge Bjæverskov Spanager Graderup Fynsværket Odense Sydøst Ringsted Lykkegård Bramdrup Holsted Odense Sydøst Ringsted Lykkegård værket Holsted Fraugde Hejninge 50 kvbjæverskov Horns Rev Tyrstrup Kingstrup 50 kv Fraugde Rislev Haslev Horns A Rev Ribe Tyrstrup Kingstrup Magstrup Fensmark Rislev Haslev A Ribe Abildskov Stigsnæsværket 160 MW Magstrup Fensmark Abildskov Stigsnæsværket Øster- 160 MW Næstved Blangslev Næstved holm Østerholm Blangslev Svendborg Bredebro Kassø Enstedværket Svendborg Masnedøværket Bredebro Kassø Enstedværket Orehoved Masnedøværket Sverige Sverige Sønderborg Orehoved Eskilstrup Sønderborg Eskilstrup Vestlolland strong demand for cables Radsted also 60 Idestrup on 400 kv level Vestlolland Idestrup 60 kv Rødby Rødby -> how should the long-term grid structure be like? Tyskland 1200 Tyskland MW Tyskland 1200 MW Nysted 600 Tyskland MW 165 Nysted MW 600 MW 165 MW Skagerrak Skagerrak Konti-Skan Konti-Skan 132/50 kv 132/50 kv 132/50 kv 132/50 kv 132 kv 132 kv Kontek Kontek

7 The optimization challenge of system planning competition - sustainability security of supply The task: Development of a robust and long-term electricity infrastructure, which, at any time, supports - the desired security of supply, Market - function of the electricity market and - environmental targets Focus and balance between these considerations change and so does the socio-economic framework Security of Environment supply Socio-economy Decision of new device Known prerequisites Commissioning Technical livetime 0-6 år 3-15 år år

8 Energinetdk s responsibility - from planning to settlement -25 year -1 year -1 month -1 week -1 day Real-time Operation Planning and R&D Building and maintenance of transmission grid System operation Market operation and settlement We have to embrace the full range

9 Wind power in the power system: impacts on reliability and efficiency Area relevant for impact studies Task 25 System wide km Primary Secondary reserve reserve Regional km Grid stability Transmission efficiency Congestion management Reduced emissions Hydro/thermal efficiency Adequacy of power Adequacy of grid Adequacy Balancing Local km Voltage management Power quality Distribution efficiency Grid ms s s min min h 1 24 h years Time scale relevant for impact studies We have to embrace the full scale Source: Holttinen

10 Scenarios a structured visualisation of Energinetdk s future visions Traditional method: Traditionally: Long-term investment decisions are based on a cost-benefit analysis (business case) relying on single forecasts of electricity & heat consumption etc Target: Scenarios deliver our best guess on the future in 2030 and are applied to prove important long term and strategic decisions Environment high priority national focus, environment: high priority international focus, environment: high priority Scenario 4 Primarily national focus national focus, environment: low priority international focus, environment: low priority Primarily international focus Scenario Scenario 3 Environment lower priority Scenario 2

11 System Planning Process seenfrom above Long-term grid structure The target is a long-term and robust development of the electricity infrastructure, so that it supports the desired security of supply, well-functioning markets and the environmental targets Data basis Demand analysis Assessment of alternatives Business Case and Risk Assessment Investment decision Alt 1 Alt 2 Alt 3 Socio-economics Scenarios Market Security of supply Environment/integration of RE

12 High Demand for Analysis and Tools Energinetdk s toolbox within the Planning Department Forecasts Scenarios Principles for Grid Design System Analysis Tools (stationary and dynamic) - Sufficiency of Power, Energy and Grid - Ancillary Service and Reserves - Development of new System Architekture involving Local Grids Tools for Analysis of Market - Congestions, Market Power, Prices, Power & Energy Exchanges etc Methods for Quanitification and Evaluation of Externalities - Operational Security, Emissions, Visual Impact Business cases and Risk Assessment

13 Analysis Tools Program Sivael Samkøringsmodellen Samlast MARS Metris/ Assess MAPS PowerFactory PSS/E PowerWorld Fokus Danish Electric and Heat System, hourly based Interaction between hydro power and thermal production in the Nordic System Addition to Samkøøringsmodellen Market Power in the Nordic El-market Danish Reliability with respect to grid limitation Reliability in the Nordic System with respect to capacity limits Tool for Grid analysis (loadflow, short circuit, harmonics, stability, eigenvalues) Tool for Grid analysis (loadflow, kortslutning, stabilitet ) Visualisation of loadflow Leverandør Own development Sintef/Powell Sintef/Powell Own development RTE Vattenfall DigSilent Siemens-PTI PowerWorld Corp

14 +3000 MW : 50 % supply plan with wind in 2025 Integration of extra 3000 MW wind power? 8000 MW Demand 7000 Demand Wind power Wind power 1000 Minimum controllable power generation Today 1000 Minimum controllable power generation MW Uge Optimal utilization of international power markets and domestic flexibility to maintain security of supply and to maximize value of wind power!

15 Utilization of domestic control possibilities - both, for security of supply and economic aspects! MW Wind Prediction Day-Ahead price DKK/MWh MW DKK February 2004 Wind Prediction Day-Ahead Price February January 2005 Decentral combined heat and Power (CHP) units start to operate according to price signals (~ 12 GW) Effektive control of CHP units according to markets price signals helps security of supply and economics

16 The Nordic power markets

17 DG and the Market El-reg NOIS Local scale CHP- units operating on market terms Production Balance Responsible (PBR) Heat price [DKK/GJ] CHP Heat boiler Electric boiler Electricity Price Electric [DKK/MWh] boiler, prev

18 Grid Connection Specifications - utilization of Wind Turbines technical possibilities to reduce demand on or to contribute to System Service P kan P bør P kan 3 P bør 5 Stop regulation Power Gradient Constraint P kan P bør P kan 6 7 P bør Absolute Production Constraint Delta Production Constraint Requirements on WT`s technical characteristics and operation mode increase their value for the system

19 EWIS Study Result of Power System Analysis TIE-LINES INTERNAL ELEMENTS FR PT ES (NORDEL) DK 2 NL DE BE PL D CZ CZ (UA) SK CH AT CH HU RO IT SI HR FRY BiH BA CS BG FYROM MK AL AL GR Intense international cooperation (NORDEL and UCTE) to face common challenges source: EWIS study

20 Preparing the future To ensure Security of Supply and maximum value of dispersed generation we have to: Add transmission capacity Sustain Strong International Cooperation use tools and methods considering uncertainty develop suitable grid codes and market design optimizing provision of system services Develop a new power system architecture increasing security for local grids Use market price signals for system control Promote Price responsive electricity demand Promote new electricity applications

21 Thank you! wwwenerginetdk Horns Rev