Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 8. januar 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Med udgangspunkt i den amerikanske centralbanks (Fed) beslutning om at påbegynde en nedtrapning af de kvantitative lempelser (QE) i december, vil der i dag være en del fokus på referatet fra det møde. Vi vil især være interesserede i at se hvor stor enstemmighed der var bag beslutningen, og dermed i hvilket tempo Fed kan tænkes at fortsætte udfasningen. Vi ved at FOMC medlem Rosengren ikke stemte for beslutningen, hvilket som udgangspunkt jo ikke umiddelbart viser den store modstand internt i rentekomitéen, men graden af uenighed internt i Fed om hvor hurtigt QE skal neddrosles, samt hvilke risici der ses i den forbindelse, vil være interessant læsning. Herudover får vi også tal for udviklingen i antallet af ansøgninger om realkreditlån til huskøb, der gennem de seneste uger har udviklet sig bekymrende negativt efter ellers at have vist tegn på stabilisering i kølvandet på at realkreditrenterne kom lidt ned igen efter de voldsomme stigninger hen over sommeren. Realkreditrenterne er dog steget lidt igen på det seneste, og det ser ud til at have haft en dæmpende effekt på efterspørgslen. Selv om sammenhængen ikke er 100% entydig, så peger de faldende ansøgninger om realkreditlån på en vis risiko for en opbremsning i prisstigningerne på boligmarkedet. Endelig får vi også ADP s opgørelse over den private beskæftigelse i december, som kan give et vist fingerpeg forud for fredagens vigtige arbejdsmarkedsrapport. Som altid vil vi dog advare mod at lægge alt for megen vægt på denne rapport, da den ofte skyder ret så skævt i forholdt til de officielle beskæftigelsestal - markedet forventer en stigning på personer.. Fra euroområdet får vi arbejdsløshedstal for november, hvor det bliver interessant at se om de positive takter fra måneden før fortsætter. Umiddelbart venter vi, at den mere positive udvikling vil fortsætte, og dermed give yderligere næring til spekulationer om, at vi er i gang med at se en om end meget langsom bedring på arbejdsmarkedet. Således har bl.a. ledighedsforventningerne peget på et fortsat fald i antallet af arbejdsløse, om end faldet næppe vil være stort nok til at ændre på at arbejdsløshedsraten vil holde sig uændret på 12,1%. Hertil skal det også tilføjes, at ledigheden stadig vil være høj i lang tid endnu, og dermed fortsat give et negativt pres på lønvæksten. Herudover får vi tal for detailsalget i euroområdet i november, der på baggrund af de overraskende stærke tyske tal vi fik i går, kan overraske lidt på opsiden i forhold til markedernes forventning om en stigning på 0,1% m/m. Vi får også tyske fabriksordrer for november, hvor der ventes en delvis reversering af det overraskende store fald måneden før, samt tyske udenrigshandelstal ligeledes for november her ventes en vækst i eksporten på 0,8% m/m. US: Højere renter dæmper lånelyst Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Pæn fremgang på aktiemarkederne, men obligationsrenterne trækker nedad på trods af dette. Asien fortsætter de pæne takter bla. efter at IMF annoncerer at den vil løfte sine globale vækstskøn. USA: Underskuddet på handelsbalancen faldt lidt overraskende i november til det laveste niveau i 4 år. Eksporten steg med 0,9% m/m mens importen faldt med 1,4% m/m. Faldet i importen var primært drevet af en faldende værdi af energirelateret import. Det faldende underskud peger på, at BNP-væksten i 4. kvartal kan vise sig stærkere end ventet, om end faldet i importen af især forbrugsgoder dog også indikerer et ret så stort negativt træk fra lagrene. Euroområdet: Inflationen faldt fra 0,9% til 0,8% i december, og dermed fortsætter den disinflationære trend igen, efter stigningen i november. Det var dog bekymrende, at faldet i inflationen udelukkende kunne tilskrives en lavere kerneinflation, der faldt fra 0,9% til 0,7% - et nyt rekordlavt niveau. For indeværende er der bestemt en mulighed for at de disinflationære tendenser vil fortsætte, som blev understreget af et nyt stort fald i producentpriserne i november. Der er således tegn på, at inflationen vil holde sig langt under ECB s loft på 2% i et godt stykke tid endnu, og i kombination med de fortsat svage monetære data er presset på centralbanken for yderligere indgreb ikke blevet mindre vi regner dog ikke med at vi vil se tiltag fra banken i forbindelse med mødet i morgen. Det lykkedes desuden ECB at absorbere de 179 mia. EUR i SMP-likviditet ved den ugentlige opsugningsauktion i går. Tyskland: Mens inflationspresset er aftagende var der dog positive signaler fra arbejdsmarkedet i form af et fald i ledigheden på personer i december, hvilket var det største månedlige fald i to år. Ledighedsprocenten blev dog fastholdt på 6,9%. Vi fik også positive signaler fra detailsalget, der steg med 1,5% m/m i november. Frankrig: Forbrugertilliden steg fra 84 til 85 i december, trukket af en reduceret frygt for ledighed. Danmark: Antallet af konkurser faldt fra 417 til 382 i december når korrigeret for sæsonudsving. Set over hele 4. kvartal var der dog tale om en stigning i konkurserne på 8% i forhold til kvartalet før, men for hele 2013 endte antallet af konkurser på det laveste niveau i fem år, og der er grobund for at forvente yderligere forbedring i år, om end formentlig i et langsom tempo. Antallet af tvangsauktioner steg svagt i december, men den nedadgående tendens vi har set gennem 2013 er dog stadig intakt. EUR: Rekordlav kerneinflation presser ECB For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 8. januar 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+1,08% / indeks 706,80) endte i positivt territorium og endte dermed for 10. dag i træk højere. I toppen af indekset endte Vestas (+6,07% / kurs 197,40) efter vindmølleproducenten sent mandag var ude og opjustere deres forventninger til de frie pengestrømme til regnskabsåret 2013 på baggrund af den stærke ordreindgang i de sidste uger af december. Det medførte endvidere, at flere nordiske finanshuse var ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+3,49% / kurs ,00) fulgte også godt med efter meddelelsen om, at de har solgt en stor del af deres aktier i Dansk Supermarked Gruppen til Salling-fondene og har nedbragt deres ejerandel fra 66% til 19%. De danske banker havde også en kursfest i dagens handel, hvor både Jyske Bank (+2,82% / kurs 298,50), Danske Bank (+1,50% / kurs 128,60) og Nordea (+1,18% / kurs 73,05) endte højere dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. I den anden ende af indekset endte bl.a. TDC (- 1,70% / kurs 52,00) efter et internationalt finanshus var ude og sænke kursmålet på aktien. Dagens kursmæssige taber blev Chr. Hansen Holding (-2,86% / kurs 207,50) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Renter Der blev tale om en dag med rentefald på trods af at aktiemarkederne havde pilen opad. I tysk (og dansk) regning blev rentefaldet sandsynligvis inspireret af at inflationen faldet en smule mere end ventet i december i euroområdet, hvilket bør lægge yderligere pres på ECb for at foretage nye pengepolitiske lempelser. Det overskyggede sandsynligvis et uventet fald i tysk ledighed samt bedre end ventet tysk detailsalg. Derudover var der igen tale om en dag med god stemning i EURperiferirenterne, herunder støttet af en succesfuld irsk auktion over statsobligationer. I USA modtog vi et overraskende stort fald i handelsunderskuddet, men et par ugerapporter over detailsalget skuffede, og Fed s Rosengren var igen på banen og understrege at QE-udfasning bør ske forsigtigt i betragtning af de deflationsrisici der fortsat er gældende. Der blev tale om en dag præget af stærkere USD og svagere EUR. USD-benet fik støtte fra et uventet stort fald i handelsunderskud- det, hvilket overskyggede svage et par svage detailsektor rapporter samt ny dueagtig udfra Fed s Rosengren. EUR for sin del melding blev samtidigt svækket af et uventet fald i forbrugerprisinflationen i december, hvilket overskyggede positive tyske tal for ledighed og detailsalg og god stemning omkring EURperiferilandene. JPY blev svækket på USD- styrken samt den ok stemning på aktiemarke- til morgen efter IMF varslede derne, herunder en opjustering af globale vækstskøn. GBP blev styrket t en smule. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Æ ndring Aktue lt Ændrin g Aktuelt Æ ndring OMXC20CAP 706,8 1,08 USD/JPY 105,1 0,590 USA 2,96-0,02 Stoxx ,4 0,74 EU R/USD 1,362 0,001 Euroområdet 1,90-0,02 FT SE 6755,5 0,37 USD/DKK 5,478-0,002 Danmark 1,97 0,00 S&P ,9 0,61 CHF/DKK 6,024-0,021 Nasdaq 4153,2 0,96 GBP/DKK 8,993 0,013 Hang Seng 23024,7 1,37 SEK/DKK 0,840 0,000 Nikkei 16121,5 1,94 NOK/DKK 0,888 0,000 Alle tal er opgjort kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag kl. 7:30 Aktuelt Ændring CRB 276,8 1,64 Brent oil (1M fut) 107,6 0,36 Gold (spot) 1228,0-1,30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,125 0,125 0,500 2,98 2,80 3,00 3,30 EUR/USD 1,362 1,36 1,25 1,10 Euroland 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 1,91 1,80 1,80 2,00 USD/J PY 105,1 102,5 103,0 105,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 2,99 2,70 2,80 3,00 USD/DKK 5,478 5,49 5,96 6,77 Danmark 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 1,97 1,90 1,95 2,15 EUR/DKK 7,460 7,46 7,45 7,45 Sverige 0,75 0,75 0,75 1,00 2,47 2,30 2,40 2,60 SEK/DKK 0,8397 0,848 0,887 0,898 Norge 1,50 1,50 1,25 1,25 2,91 2,90 2,90 3,00 NOK/DKK 0,8874 0,899 0,920 0,920 2

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 8. januar 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Ingen væsentlige Selskab Regnskab Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator :45 Kina HSBC/Markit Services PMI D ec :00 Danmark Unemployment Rate SA N ov % 4.4% 4.4% :00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate N ov % 5.7% 5.7% :00 EMU PMI Composite D ec F :00 EMU PMI Services D ec F :30 UK PMI Services D ec :30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Jan :00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) D ec P 0.4%/1.4% %/1.3% 0.4%/1.4% :00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite D ec :00 USA Factory Orders (MoM) N ov 1.7% % 1.8% :00 Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) N ov %/-0.1% 1.5%/1.6% :45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence D ec :00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves D ec 435.0B B 435.2B :55 Tyskland Unemployment Rate D ec 6.9% % 6,9% :00 EMU CPI Estim ate (YoY) D ec 0.9% 0.8% (r) 0.9% 0,8% :00 EMU CPI C ore (YoY) D ec A 0.9% 0.8% (r) 0.9% 0,7% :30 USA Fed's Rosengren, Williams Speaks on the Economy :30 USA Trade Balance N ov -$40.0B -- -$39.3B -$34.3B :00 Tyskland Exports SA (MoM) N ov 0.8% % 0.3% :30 Sverige Sveriges Riksbank Releases Minutes from Dec Meeting :00 Norge Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) N ov %/-7.5% :00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) N ov 0.1%/0.3% %/-0.1% :00 EMU Unemployment Rate N ov 12.1% 12.1% 12.1% :00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) N ov 1.5%/6.1% %/1.9% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 03. jan % :15 USA ADP Employment Change D ec 200K K :00 USA Fed Releases Minutes from Dec FOMC Meeting :30 Kina CPI (YoY) D ec 2.7% % :00 Danmark Current Account Balance N ov B 18.4B :00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships N ov B 9.0B :00 EMU Economic C onfidence D ec 99, :00 Tyskland Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) N ov 1.5%/3.0% %/1.0% :00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 09. jan 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% :00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Jan 375B 375B 375B :30 USA Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) D ec % :45 EMU ECB Announces Interest Rates 09. jan 0,25% 0,25% 0,25% :45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate 09. jan 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% :30 EMU ECB'S Draghi Holds Press C onference :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 04. jan 335K K :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 05. jan :00 USA House Monetary Policy Subcom mittee Hearing on Fed Bond Buying Kina Trade Balance D ec $32.15B -- $33.80B Kina Im ports/exports (YoY) D ec 4.9%/5.2% %/12.7% Periode :45 Schweiz Unemployment Rate SA D ec 3.2% % :30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentim ent D ec :45 Frankrig Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) N ov 0.4%/0.9% %/0.0% :00 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) D ec -0.1%/0.2% -0.1%/0.2% 0.0%/0.1% :00 Danmark Industrial Production (MoM) N ov % 1.5% :00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) D ec %/0.8% -0.2%/0.5% :00 Danmark CPI EU H armonized (MoM/YoY) D ec %/0.5% 0.2%/0.3% :30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) N ov 1.0%/-1.3% 0.2%/-3.0% -1.7%/-5.0% :00 Norge CPI (MoM/YoY) D ec 0.2%/2.3% --/2.4% 0.1%/2.5% :00 Norge CPI U nderlying (MoM/YoY) D ec 0.2%/2.3% --/2.3% 0.2%/2.0% :30 UK Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) N ov 0.4%/3.0% %/3.2% Survey :30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls D ec 195K :30 USA Unemployment Rate D ec 7.0% :00 USA Fed's Bullard Speaks on Economy Kina Aggregate Financing RMB D ec B Kina New Yuan Loans D ec 590.0B SHB Forrige Faktisk 200K 203K 7.0% 7.0% B B Analytikere: Jes Asmussen, , jeas01@handelsbanken.dk, Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, , ragu02@handelsbanken.dk Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater ter gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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