Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 27. oktober 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens vigtigste nøgletal bliver nok det tyske Ifo industritillidsindeks. Konsensus venter uændret forventningsindeks og et lille fald i indekset for den nuværende økonomiske situation. Ifo har normalt mindre udsving end PMI, som jo overraskende steg i oktober, og det er en af grundene til at vi er skeptiske over for om Ifo kan følge PMI op. Selv et uændret forventningsindeks vil være et markant skifte i forhold til de seneste måneder, som har budt på store fald (se figur). ECB begyndte i sidste uge sine obligationsopkøb under det seneste opkøbsprogram. ECB vil ugentligt udmelde, hvad og hvor meget, der er købt, og det sker første gang i dag. Fra USA kommer opgørelsen af de verserende bolighandler i september, og her ventes en rimelig udramatisk udvikling med en stigning på 1,0% m/m, som dermed reverserer faldet i august. Dermed synes aktiviteten fortsat at befinde sig i et dødvande. Det er i overensstemmelse med den fortsat afdæmpede aktivitet i antallet af realkreditansøgninger i forbindelse med boligkøb samt det seneste fald i NAHB-indekset oven på en række uventede stigninger henover sommeren. På den anden side har vi modtaget lidt opmuntrende tegn med de seneste fald i realkreditrenterne, hvor det nok er for tidligt at vente en positiv effekt på handelsaktiviteten. Hovedbegivenheden i resten af ugen bliver nok rentemødet i Fed onsdag aften, hvor Fed ventes at stoppe opkøbene under sit seneste opkøbsprogram. Dagen efter kommer første estimat for BNP-væksten i 3. kvartal for USA. Fra euroområdet kommer ESI-barometret torsdag, og ledighed og inflation fredag. Der er rentemøde i Sveriges Riksbanken tirsdag, hvor renten ventes nedsat. Torsdag kommer der danske ledighedstal og erhvervslivets konjunkturbarometre Tysk Ifo stopper måske faldet Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Amerikanske aktier og renter steg generelt i fredags, mens de europæiske faldt lidt. Nikkei er i plus her til morgen. EUR er styrket over for USD. Euroområdet: ECB offentliggjorde i går resultatet af sin Comprehensive Assessment baseret på en gennemgang af de 130 vigtigste banker i euroområdet. Gennemgangen er fordelt på en vurdering af bankernes aktivkvalitet samt en stresstest. 25 banker dumpede stresstesten, heraf flest italienske banker inklusive Italiens tredjestørste bank Monte Paschi. Ingen af de store banker i euroområdet faldt igennem. Den samlede underdækningen i forhold til kapitalkravene var 25 mia. euro ved udgangen af 2013, men størstedelen af denne kapital er allerede blevet rejst gennem 2014, og i øvrigt har de berørte banker op til ni måneder til at øge kapitaldækningen. Kun otte banker har ikke allerede lukket hullet eller har fremlagt planer for, hvordan det skal gøres. Resultatet vil nok blive modtaget positivt på de finansielle markeder her til morgen. Det havde måske været bedre, hvis endnu færre banker havde fejlet testen, men hvis meget få banker var fejlet, ville testen måske være blevet anset som utroværdig som følge af for lempelige kriterier. USA: Salget af nye boliger steg en smule i september på linje med konsensusestimatet, men der var nedrevideringer af de foregående måneder. Brasilien: Den siddende brasilianske præsident Dilma Rousseff vandt i går anden runde af præsidentvalget og fik 52% af stemmerne. Det brasilianske aktiemarked står til at falde, når det åbner senere i dag, i skuffelse over at den mere reform- og markedsvenlige udfordrer Aceio Neves ikke vandt, selvom meningsmålingerne er gået Rousseuffs vej de seneste uger. Kina: BNP-væksten vil nok falde til 7,2% i fjerde kvartal ifølge Song Guoqing, som sidder i centralbankens rådgivende komite. Storbritannien: Britisk BNP-vækst faldt til 0,7% q/q i 3. kvartal fra 0,9% i 2. kvartal på linje med konsensusestimatet. De 25 mest stressede banker Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Italy Co-operative Central Bank, Cyprus Eurobank Ergasias, Greece Banca Carige, Italy Hellenic Bank Public Company, Cyprus National Bank of Greece, Greece Permanent tsb, Ireland Bank of Cyprus Public Company, Cyprus Österreichische Volksbanken, Austria Veneto Banca, Italy Münchener Hypothekenbank, Germany Banco Comercial Português, Portugal Banca Popolare di Vicenza, Italy AXA Bank Europe, Belgium Credito Valtellinese, Italy Banca Popolare Di Milano, Italy Banca Popolare di Sondrio, Italy Piraeus Bank, Greece Nova Kreditna Banka Maribor, Slovenia Banco Popolare - Società Cooperativa, Italy Dexia NV, Belgium Nova Ljubljanska banka d. d., Ljubljana, Slovenia Banca Popolare Dell'Emilia, Italy C.R.H. - Caisse de Refinancement de l Habitat, France Liberbank, S.A., Spain For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 27. oktober 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,53% / indeks 781,50) endte i negativt territorium på ugens sidste handelsdag og fulgte dermed de europæiske aktiemarkeder sydpå efter en særdeles god uge ellers. Den negative stemning primært drevet af en lidt forstærket ebola-frygt i markedet efter en læge i New York har fået konstateret ebola efter sin hjemkomst fra Vestafrika. I bunden af indekset endte Vestas (-3,50% / kurs 190,50) på trods af, at selskabet modtog den første kinesiske ordre efter mere end 1 års ordretørke i Kina. Derudover har EUlandene også indgået en omfattende aftale på klima- og energiområdet, som løber frem mod 2030, hvilket dog heller ikke gav noget medvind til aktien. I den anden ende af indekset endte Chr. Hansen Holding (+2,88% / kurs 232,50) og belønnes dermed fortsat for onsdagens bedre end frygtet regnskab. Uden for C20-indekset var Rockwool (+0,90% / kurs 840,00) i fokus efter meddelelsen om, at selskabet skifter deres mangeårige direktør Eelco van Heel ud med svenske Jens Birgersson, som kommer fra en stilling i ABB. Renter De amerikanske statsrenter steg fredag sammen med aktiemarkederne. De tyske og danske statsrenter fulgte ikke med op, blandt andet fordi det blev lækket, at 25 banker ville dumpe ECB s stresstest. Det blev anset for et højt tal. Da stresstesten (og vurderingen af kvaliteten af bankernes aktiver) blev offentliggjort i går søndag, viste det sig dog, at der ikke var nogen af de store europæiske banker blandt de 25, og markederne vil nok åbne med rentestigninger her til morgen. Der var flest italienske banker blandt de 25, inklusive Italiens tredjestørste bank Monte Paschi. Den samlede underdækningen i forhold til kapitalkravene var 25 mia. euro ved udgangen af 2013, men størstedelen af denne kapital er allerede blevet rejst gennem 2014, og i øvrigt har de berørte banker op til ni måneder til at øge kapitaldækningen. Kun otte banker har ikke allerede lukket hullet eller har fremlagt planer for, hvordan det skal gøres. Valuta EUR er fortsat fredagens styrkelse over for USD her til morgen. Det er nok især drevet af det relativt positive udfald af ECB s stresstest, som blev offentliggjort i går søndag. Godt nok var der 25 banker, hvis kapitaldækning var utilstrækkelig ved udgangen i Men kun otte banker har ikke allerede lukket hullet eller har fremlagt planer for, hvordan det skal gøres. Den samlede underdækningen i forhold til kapitalkravene var 25 mia. euro ved udgangen af 2013, men størstedelen af denne kapital er allerede blevet rejst gennem Der var ikke nogen af de største europæiske banker blandt de 25. Den største var italienske Monte Paschi. GBP styrkedes lidt over for både EUR og USD fredag efter første offentliggørelse af britisk BNP for 3. kvartal viste, at væksten kun faldt lidt til fortsat solide 0,7% q/q. BRL styrkedes markant over for USD fredag, efter en af de sidste meningsmålinger inden gårsdagens præsidentvalg viste, at udfordreren Aecio Neves måske alligevel havde en chance for at vinde. Styrkelses vil dog nok blive reverseret i dag, da Neves tabte og kun fik 48% af stemmerne. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 27. oktober 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Exiqon 3. kvartal Sydbank 3. kvartal DSV 3. kvartal Jyske Bank 3. kvartal Spar Nord Bank 3. kvartal Coloplast Årsregnskab Danske Bank 3. kvartal Novo Nordisk 3. kvartal TDC 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Oct :00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Sep 2.2% % :00 UK CBI Reported Sales Oct :45 USA Markit US Composite PMI Oct P :00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep 1.0% %/-4.1% :30 USA Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Oct :50 Japan Retail Sales MoM Sep 0.9%/0.8% %/1.2% :30 Kina Industrial Profits YoY Sep % :00 Tyskland Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Sep -0.1%/-1.9% %/-1.9% :30 Sverige Riksbank Interest Rate Oct % 0.050% 0.250% :30 USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) Sep 0.4% 0.5% -18.4% :30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (MoM) Sep 0.6% % :00 USA S&P/CS 20 City (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.15%/5.65% %/6.75% :00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Oct :00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Oct :50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Sep P 2.2%/-0.1% %/-3.3% :45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Oct % :00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Oct :00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Aug 3.4% 3.3% 3.4% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications Oct % :00 USA Fed QE3 Pace Oct $0B -- $15B :00 USA FOMC Rate Decision Oct % % :00 UK Nationwide House (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.3%/8.5% %/9.4% :00 Danmark Unemployment Rate SA Sep 3.9% 4.0% 3.9% :00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Sep 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% :00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Oct :55 Tyskland Unemployment Rate Oct 6.7% % :00 EMU Economic Confidence Oct :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims Oct K :30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q A 3.0% 3.5% 4.6% :00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Oct P -0.2%/0.9% %/0.8% :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Oct :30 Japan Jobless Rate Sep 3.6% % :30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Sep 3.0% % Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement :05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Oct :00 Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep %/0.1% :45 Frankrig Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) Sep %/1.4% :00 EMU Unemployment Rate Sep 11.5% % :00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Oct 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% :00 EMU CPI Core YoY Oct A 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% :30 USA Personal Income (MoM) Sep 0.3% % :30 USA Personal Spending (MoM) Sep 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% :30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.1%/ 0.1%/ 0.1%/1.5% :45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager Oct Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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