Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 13. marts 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Efter en lidt begivenhedsfattig dag på nøgletalsfronten i går er der mere kød på kalenderen i dag. Fokus vil formentlig primært være rettet mod detailsalget i USA i februar, ikke mindst efter at januar bød på et skuffende fald i det underliggende salg (det vil sige renset for biler, benzin og byggematerialer). Det store spørgsmål som vi gerne vil have besvaret er, om tilbagegangen i årets første måned primært kan tilskrives vejreffekter, hvor det dårlige vejr holdt kunderne ude af butikkerne. Vejret var dog også usædvanligt koldt i februar, men dog i mindre grad, og markederne venter på den baggrund en stigning i kernesalget, der nogenlunde matcher det fald vi så i januar. Der var dog også en stribe store snestorme i februar som ramte USA relativt bredt, og derfor ser vi en vis risiko for at udviklingen kan blive mere negativ end den fremgang på 0,2% i det underliggende salg som er forventningen i markedet og dermed også at vi nok skal vente lidt længere før end vi kan konkludere om vejret har været den primære faktor bag den seneste lidt skuffende udvikling. Indtil videre tror vi dog det har været tilfældet da udviklingen i både forbrugerpriserne samt i forbrugertilliden begge indikerer, at detailsalget grundlæggende burde have udviklet sig stærkere i årets første måneder. Herudover får vi også tal for antallet af nye ledige, som efter lidt store udsving hen over årsskiftet har stabiliseret sig mellem og personer et niveau der historisk er foreneligt med en fornuftig fremgang i beskæftigelsen. Endelig vil vi også holde lidt øje med høringen i senatet vedrørende nomineringen af tre nye Fed-medlemmer, Fischer, Brainard og Powell, som kan blive dem der skal være med til at styre den fremtidige pengepolitik. US: Januarfald i detailsalget virker overgjort Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Bekymringer om Ukraine og vækstudsigterne i Kina trak risikovilligheden ned i Europa på en dag uden de store økonomiske nøgletal og aktiemarkederne endte med pæne minusser. I USA endte markederne dog mere fladt. Der var initialt en positiv stemning i Asien i nat men svage kinesiske nøgletal her til morgen har vendt udviklingen i en mere negativ retning og kan også præge åbningen i Europa i negativ retning. Obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland faldt. EUR er styrket til det stærkeste niveau over for USD siden oktober Kina: Tendensen i nøgletallene fortsætter i det svage spor, hvor både industriproduktionen, detailsalget og investeringsaktiviteten steg mindre end ventet i januar/februar. Alt i alt nok ikke tal, der vil ændre på de aktuelle bekymringer om vækstudsigterne. Premiereminister Li udtalte at defaults i visse tilfælde kan vise sig uundgåelige, men at myndighederne har stor fokus på de finansielle risici. USA: Efter en stigning i forrige uge havde antallet af ansøgninger om realkreditlån til huskøb igen en svag pil nedad. Der er i denne timelige opgørelse stadig ikke de store tegn på et rebound i aktiviteten på boligmarkedet, som vi ellers gerne snart skulle se materialisere sig for at fastholde, at de aktuelle svagheder primært er et vejrfænomen og ikke et udtryk for en mere underliggende afmatningstendens. For indeværende peger de store fald i aktiviteten på boligmarkedet i hvert fald på en vis risiko for, at vi kan begynde at se en opbremsning i prisstigningstakten på boligmarkedet. EMU: Industriproduktionen faldt med 0,2% m/m i januar. Tal fra Tyskland, Italien og Spanien havde ellers peget på et mere positivt afsæt ind i 2014, men både Frankrig og især Holland og Finland bidrog til den skuffende udvikling. Den negative udvikling i Frankrig er endnu en påmindelse om den stigende divergens i forhold til Tyskland. Produktionsfaldet i december blev dog nedrevideret fra -0,7% til -0,4%, hvilket tager lidt af brodden af svaghederne. Det skal også understreges at en stor del af faldet kan tilskrives et fald i energiproduktionen, muligvis som følge af mildt vejr, og at der på den baggrund er basis for et rebound, samt at tillidsindikatorerne også fortsat peger på en stærkere udvikling i de kommende måneder. De relative svagheder i produktionen af forbrugsgoder er dog en lille kilde til bekymring, da det ikke vidner om at forbruget er ved at komme op i tempo. Overordnet er tallet en påmindelse om, at det økonomiske opsving stadig er skrøbeligt, og ikke stærkt nok endnu til at kunne eliminere risikoen for deflation eller takle regionens fortsatte gældsudfordringer. Den tyske finansminister udtalte, at han ikke så risiko for deflation i euroområdet, samt at de nuværende renteniveauer er for lave set ud fra et tysk perspektiv. UK: Huspriserne steg i et langsommere tempo i februar ifølge RICS husprisbalance, der faldt fra 52% til 45%. En afdæmpning i antallet af nye købere står bag udviklingen, mens et fortsat lavt antal boliger til salg dog stadig sikrer vækst i huspriserne dårligt vejr kan dog formentlig også forklare en del af den lidt svagere tendens. US: Stadig afdæmpet aktivitet på boligmarkedet For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 13. marts 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-1,65% / indeks 744,96) endte i negativt territorium på en dag, hvor stemningen på markedet fortsat blev dikteret af situationen i Ukraine. Den negative stemning skyldes mere specifikt at investorerne endnu engang var bekymrede over situationen i Ukraine efter Tysklands Merkel havde bedt Præsident Putin om at skifte kurs i forhold til Krim-halvøen inden næste uge, da tyske sanktioner mod Rusland ellers vil træde i kraft. Samtidigt var investorerne nervøse for den seneste tids svage nøgletal fra Kina, som indikerer at væksten er på vej ned i gear. Den nervøse stemning betød at samtlige aktier i det ledende danske C20-indeks endte dagen i negativt terræn. I bunden af indekset endte A.P. Møller - Mærsk (-3,23% / kurs ,00) efter af at dødsboet efter Mærsk McKinney Møller valgte at sælge en stor portion aktier til institutionelle investorer, hvor der var der tale om en rabat på 7% for A-aktierne og 4,5% for B-aktierne i forhold til den foregående dags lukkekurs. I den anden ende af indekset endte de defensive selskaber Topdanmark (-0,52% / kurs 153,20) og TDC (-0,65% / kurs 48,72), som i mindre grad blev ramt af gårsdagens udprægede nervøsitet blandt investorerne. Renter Der var en udpræget risk-off stemning på de finansielle markeder i Europa i går, hvor den fortsat usikre situation i Ukraine samt bekymringer om vækstudsigterne i Kina vejede tungt på risikovilligheden. Det sendte investorerne ind i de mere sikre obligationsmarkeder, med rentefald til følge i både Danmark og Tyskland, mens vi så stigninger i de fleste af periferilandenes renter. Et overraskende fald i industriproduktionen i euroområdet medvirkede formentlig også til rentefaldet, ligesom en stribe ECB-medlemmer var på banen med relativt dueagtige beskeder. Modsat udtalte den tyske finansminister, at det aktuelle renteniveau er for lavt i et tysk perspektiv, og at der ikke er risiko for deflation i euroområdet. Sidstnævnte så ud til at have størst effekt på EUR, der blev styrket yderligere, og som dermed i sig selv øger presset for mere handling fra ECB s side. Generelt var der ikke de store nøgletal til at sætte retningspilen, om end antallet af ansøgninger om realkreditlån faldt i USA. Der har været tendens til en lidt mindre grad af risikoaversion i USA og Asien efter europæisk lukketid, men skuffende tal for industriproduktionen og detailsalget i Kina som vi fik her til morgen, kan muligvis sætte sit præg på obligationsmarkederne her fra morgenstunden. Valuta EUR er blevet styrket over for USD til det stærkeste niveau over for USD siden oktober 2011, til trods for et lidt skuffende fald i industriproduktionen i euroområdet i januar samt relativt dueagtige udtalelser fra en stribe ECBmedlemmer. Markederne så dog ud til at tage mere retning fra udtalelser fra den tyske finansminister om, at han ikke så risiko for deflation i euroområdet, samt at det aktuelle renteniveau er for lavt set ud fra et tysk perspektiv. Endvidere ser udtalelser fra den nominerede kandidat til at overtage Yellens job som Feds vice-chef om at der er behov for en fortsat ekstremt lempelig pengepolitik u dtil at have trukket yderligere op i EUR i løbet af i nat. Overordnet var gårsdagen dog lidt blottet for større nøgletal, om end vi så et lille fald i antallet af ansøgninger om realkreditlån til huskøb i USA. Stemningen var primært sat af en lav risikovillighed som følge af den fortsat uafklarede situation i Ukraine samt af bekymringer om vækstudsigterne i Kina, hvilket morgenens skuffende tal for væksten i industriproduktionen og detailsalget ikke har givet anledning til at ændre ved. Det har også givet anledning til at JPY er blev styrket over for USD. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 13. marts 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab BoConcept Holding 3. kvartal D/S Norden Årsregnskab Royal Unibrew Årsregnskab G4S Årsregnskab H+H International Årsregnskab Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :30 Kina PPI YoY Feb -1.9% % -2.0% :30 Kina CPI YoY Feb 2.1% % 2.0% :50 Japan GDP SA QoQ 4Q F 0.2% % 0.2% :00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook Feb :30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Feb :45 Frankrig Industrial Production MoM/YoY Jan 0.3%/1.3% %/0.5% -0.2%/-0.1% :00 Danmark CPI MoM/YoY Feb 1.1%/0.9% 1.1%/0.9% -0.2%/1.0% 0.7%/0.5% :00 Norge CPI MoM/YoY Feb 0.5%/2.1% 0.4%/2.0% 0.0%/2.3% 0.5%/2.1% :00 Italien Industrial Production MoM/YoY Jan 0.5%/-0.3% -0.9%/-0.7% 1.0%/1.4% :30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Mar :15 USA Fed's Plosser, Bank of France's Noyer Speak on Panel in Paris :00 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels Kina New Yuan Loans Feb 730.0B B 644.5B Kina Aggregate Financing RMB Feb B B (r) 938.7B Japan BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target 11. mar 270T T 270T :00 Sverige PES Unemployment Rate Feb % 4.5% :00 Danmark Current Account Balance Jan 10.0B 9B 9.4B 9.0B :00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Jan 8.0B 6B 5.5B 7.0B :00 EMU EU Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels :30 Sverige CPI MoM/YoY Feb 0.5%/-0.2% 0.5%/-0.2% -1.2%/-0.2% 0.4%/-0.2% :30 UK Industrial Production MoM/YoY Jan 0.2%/2.9% %/1.8% 0.1%/2.9% :30 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism Feb :00 USA JOLTs Job Openings Jan :00 USA Wholesale Inventories MoM Jan 0.5% % 0,6% :00 EMU EU's Barroso Speaks to EU Parliament in Strasbourg :00 EMU Industrial Production MoM/YoY Jan 0.5%/1.9% 0.8%/2.2% -0.4%/1.2%(r) -0.2%/2.1% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 07. mar % -2.1% :00 USA Treasury Sec Lew testifies before House Budget Committee :01 UK RICS House Price Balance Feb 52% -- 52%(r) 45% :30 Kina Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY Feb 19.4% % 17.9% :30 Kina Retail Sales YTD YoY Feb 13.5% % 11.8% :30 Kina Industrial Production YTD YoY Feb 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 8.6% :45 Frankrig CPI EU Harmonized MoM/YoY Feb 0.6%/1.0% %/0.8% :30 Sverige Unemployment Rate SA Feb 8.0% 8.1% 8.2% :00 EMU ECB Publishes Monthly Report :30 USA Retail Sales Advance MoM Feb 0.2% % :30 USA Retail Sales Control Group MoM Feb 0.2% % :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 08. mar 330K K :30 USA Continuing Claims 28. feb K :30 USA Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.5%/-1.9% %/-1.5% :00 USA Senate Banking Nomination Hearing for Fischer, Brainard,Powell :00 USA Monthly Budget Statement Feb -$195.0B -- -$203.5B :30 Japan Industrial Production YoY Jan F % :00 Tyskland CPI EU Harmonized MoM/YoY Feb F 0.5%/1.0% %/1.0% :30 UK Trade Balance Jan :30 USA PPI Final Demand MoM/YoY Feb 0.2%/1.2% %/1.2% :55 USA Univ. of Michigan Confidence Mar P Analytikere: Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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