til den i Fellesskabet Economic Situation in the Community Diagrammer og kommentarer okonomiske situation Graphs and Notes on the 7/8

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1 rssn Commission of he Eu rope n Communiies Kommissionen for De europiske Fellesskber Grphs nd Noes on he Economic Siuion in he Communiy Digrmmer og kommenrer il den okonomiske siuion i Fellesskbe Published monhly MAnedlig publikion i )

2 This publicion ppers monhly. l is inended, by mens of grphs nd brief commenries, o provide coninul nlysis of he developmen of he min economic indicors in he Communiy. ln ech issue n inroducory commenry, devoed o subjec of curren or specil ineres, is lwys ccompnied by he following grphs nd noes: A1 lndusril producion A2 Re of unemploymen 43 Consumer prices A4 Blnce of rde The oher grphs nd noes pper periodiclly, lerning s follows : Denne publikion udkommer manedlig. Den hr il formal ved digrmmer og kore kommenrer fremlegge en forlsbende nlyse f de vesenligse konjunkurindikorers forlob i Fellesskbe. En korfe kommenr vedrsrende e emne f serlig kulie eller ineresse eferfolges i hver nummer lid f nedennvne fire digrmmer og kommenrer: A1 ndusriprodukion A2 Arbejdsloshedsprocen A3 Forbrugerpriser A4 Hndelsblnce De ovrige digrmmer og kommenrer forekommer kun periodisk som nrl'. Jnury, April, JulyAugus, Ocober Jnur, pril, juliugus, okober B1 Expors 82 Trde beween member counries 83 Discoun re nd cllmoney res 84 Money supply 85 Effecive exchnge res 81 Ekspor 82 Hndel mellem medlemslndene 83 Diskonossogpengemrkedsrene 84 Pengeforsyning 85 Effekive vlukurser Februry, M"y, JulyAugus, November Februr, mj, juliugus, november C1 lmpors C2 Terms of rde C3 Wholesle prices C4 Reil sles C5 Wges C 1 lm por C2 Byeforhold C3 Engrospriser C4 Deilomsening C5 Lonninger Mrch, June, Sepember, December Mrs, iuni, sepember, december D1 Oupu in he mel producs indusries D2 Dwellings uhorized D3 Cenrl Governmen Budge D4 Shre Prices D5 Longerm ineres res D1 Produkion i melindusri D2 Boliger hvoril der er give byggeilldelse D3 Ssbudgee D4 Akiekurser D5 Lngfrisede renesser Resuls of he monhly business survey crried ou mong heds of enerprises in he Communiy re o be found immediely fer he grphs nd noes' The symbol g 3 signifies hreemonh moving verge; for furher observions on he grphs see ls pge. Resuler f den manedlig.e konjunkurundersogelse indhene blnd virksomhedsledelser i Fllesskbe findes umiddelbr efer digrmmerne og kommenrerne. Symbole A 3 beegner e remaneders lobende gennemsn i ; yderl i gere bemerkn i nger i d igrmmerne findes pa sidse side. Reproducion is subjec o cknowledgemen of he source Gengivelse er illd med kildengivelse

3 Commission of he Egopen Communiies DirecoreGenerl for Economic nd Finncil Affirs Direcore for Nionl Economies nd Economic Trends Rue de l Loi Bruxelles GRAPHS AND NOTES ON THE ECONOMC STUATON N THE COMMUNTY DAGRAMMER OG KOMMENTARER TL DEN AKONOMSKE STUATON FELLESSKABET Kommissionen for De europreiske Frellesskber Generldirekore for Akonomiske og Finnsielle Anliggender Direkore for Medlemssernes Akonomi og Koniunkurudvikling Rudcle l Loi 200, 1049 Bruxelles

4 THE WORLD ECONOMC STUATON AT THE END OF THE SUMMER Alhough world rde picked up slighly he end of he summer, i ws sill ffeced by inernionl economic developmens well ou of line wih longerm rends. Wheres he pce ofeconomic civiy seems o hve slowed down in he mjor indusrilized counries ouside he Communiy, nobly he Unied Ses, he smller indusrilized counries would, in generl, pper o hve moved on o period of less sluggish growh. Economic growh in he indusrilized world s whole, excluding he Communiy, seems o hve been some 3l2lhigher on n nnul bsis in he firs hlfofhe yer hn in he preceding six monhs, when n lmos idenicl nnul increse hd been recorded. n spie ofhis modes re ofeconomic expnsion in he indusrilized counries, he volume of world impors ppers o hve ghered momenum in he firs hlf of 1978,' excluding hose of he Communiy probbly rising by some 6"os gins 4lnd2l in he frrs nd second hlves of 1977 respecively. This improvemen cn be pu down minly o he brodbsed expnsion in rde beween indusrilized counries under he impc of more buoyn economic civiy in number ofcounries whose impornce in erms of world rde ouweighs heir impornce in erms ofproducion. n some cses, however, specil fcors were lso work. Assuming limied growh in world demnd nd oupu during he second hlf ofhe yer, rel gross domesic produc in he indusrilized counriesexcluding he Communiywill probbly grow by no more hn 4 l( in 1978 s whole, s gins 4.31in The re of expnsion in he volume of world rdegin excluding he Communiywill probbly ese from 521in 1917 o 421in Brussels, 5 Sepember 1978 DE NTERNATONALE KONJUNKTURER VED SOMMERENS AFSLUTNNG Til iods for en lille signing i den inernionle hndel, vr den,uig ved sommerens fsluning prrege f efervirkningerne f en inernionl okonomisk udvikling, som klr fviger fr endenserne pi lng sig. Medens der synes hve vrere en konjunkurfmning i de vigigse indusriliserede redjelnde og isrer i De forenede Ser, ser de ud som om udviklingen generel foregir mindre ovende i de mindre indusrilnde. hr den skonomiske veks i fsrse hlvir, i For indusrilndene som helhed eksklusive Frellesskbe forhold il de foregiende hlvir, formenlig vrre c. 3 y2 % pi irsbsis, hvilke er mege nrer den procenss, der blev konsere i nde hlvir Trods denne fdempede okonomiske ekspnsionsk i de indusriliserede lnde er signingen i verdenens smlede impormrengde (borse fr Frellesskbe) nok bleve forsrerke i fsrse hlvdel f 1918: den synes v&re nie op p6, c. 6 '" mod henholdsvis 4 og 2 % i fsrse og nden hlvdel f Denne ccelerion er isrer en flge f den generelle udvidelse f smhndelen.mellem indusriliserede lnde under pivirkning f de forbedrede indenlndske konjunkurer i flere lnde, hvis beydning i verdenshndelen er ssrre end i verdensprodukionen. visse ilfelde hr srerlige fkorer imidlerid ligeledes spille en rolle. For hele 1978 vil vksren for de indusriliserede lndes eksklusive Frellesskbe bruonionlproduk i fse priser under forudsrening f en begrnse signing i efersporgselen og verdensprodukionen i nde hlvir, uvivlsom ligge under 4 %, mod 4,3 %il97l. Den mengdemressige vreks i den inernionle smhndelsdigeksklusivefrellesskbeforvenesfldefr5y2%i1977rl 4Y2%i1978. Bruxelles, den 5. sepember 1978

5 A NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON 1970 : 100 ndusry s whole Undjused indices Den smlede indusri lkke ssonkorrigerede l lj Cpil goods Adjused 3 Kpilgoder Sesonkorrigerede l. CEEGEC CEEG.EC F _ Y;' %;1 i{ Adjused indices V,r'^. Ssonkorrigerede 110.lK f"'.. la Consumer goods Adjused indices CEEGEC W 7.l rl r J '?.o rl Forbrugsgoder Ssonkorrigerede l. nermedie goods Adjused Hlvfbrik Ssonkorrigerede l CE. EG EC _J 125, {1. ' n he Communiy s 'whole, indusril producion excluding building nd consrucion cesed o expnd in April nd ws sill running in June is le1977 level. The ggrege f,rgures for he second qurer, djused for sesonl vriions, were much he sme i hose recorded in he preceding qurer, when indusril producion hd been sorye!"., higher^ on n nnul bsis hn ln he ls qurer of This loss of momenum is ribuble o he wekness of expor demnd nd o he slussish rend of business invesmen, no only in he cpil eoo'ds indusries, especilly mechnicl engineering. bu lso in re bsic indusries nd he indusries producing semimnufcures, nobly he seel indusry. n some counries, however, here ws revivl in civiy in he building nd consrucion indusry s, mong oher hings, he effecs of more expnsionry public spending policies begn o work hrough. n d'diion, privle con5umpion remined buoyn, judging, h is, by he number of new cr regisrions nd by purchses of consumer durbles nd quliy goods. Spending on ourism in priculr hs once ginbeen rising shrply since he spring. Fellesskbe under e er indusriprodukionen eksklusrve bysgeog nlegsvirksomhed ikke sege siden pril og vr i jdnipe slmme niveu som ved fsluningen f De smlede resufer fr nde kvrl i ssonkorrigerede l er nrsen undrede i forhold il de foregiende kvrl, hvor der vr en sienins pl c. 4'A pi irsbsis i iorhold il sidse kvrl f Dinne'iide iifi6dssillende udvikling skyldes den ringe udenlndske efersporgsel og fmningen i virksomhedernes inveseringsilbojelighed, som rmmer ikke blo inveseringsgode og isr mskinbygningsindusrien_, men ogs8_rivre og hlvfbrikindusrienl iseljern og silindusrien. Dog hr der i nogle lnde vere en signing i kivieen i bygge og nllssekoren bl.. som folge f den ekspn_sive offenlige udeifspoliik er begynd give resuler. ovrig viser silninien i nllef nyregisrerede privbiler' sm efersp6rgsilen efer vrige foibrrlgsgoder og kvliesproduker rusrloninqernes ef6rspsrgseifdrs er sor. Bl.. er ud giferne il ferierejse'r pi ny seg'e Seydelig siden forire.

6 NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON A Adjused indices SemiLog. scle 1970 : Sesonkorrigerede l Semilog. skl CEEG EC Dnmrk BR Deuschlnd Frnce m lrelnd li Nederlnd BelgiqueBelgid r Luxembourg Unied Kingdom usa., chnge over l2monh period o n J T

7 A2 RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT ARBEJDSLOSHEDSPROCENT % ' 'l '1 10. L (J EU Dnmrk BR Deuschlnd Frnce lrelnd li Nederlnd Belgique Belgie Luxembourg Unied Kingdom fl l{ n July, he sesonlly djused number of wholly unemployed in he Communiy s whole pssed he six million mrk for he firs ime, while in Augus he unemploymen re (sesonlly djused number of unemployed expressgd T q percenge of he ciiilin lbour force) once gin ouched he pek of recorded yer erlier. This deeriorion in he lbour mrke, which pushed up he sesonlly djused un m_ployme_n re in he Federl Republic of Germny, Frnce, he Unied Kingdom nd Luxemboulg, is due minly o he unusully lrge increse in he number of schoollevers seeking heir hrs jobs. n ddiion, he discourging economic clime h previled in he summer monhs led employers o pursue more cuious recruimen Dolicy hn usul. This shows up clerly in he sesonlly lojusieo number ofjob vcncies, which is good del lower in li Member Ses excep Belgium, where he figure hs been edging upwrds since ls April. By conrs,_ shorime hs coninued o decline in ll member counries; in July, i ws some 20 lower hn yer erlier. juli seg de sesonrensede nl f rbejdslose i Frellesskbe under 6for fsrse gng il 6 millioner, medens rbejdsloshedsprocenen i ugus (di for sesonudsving korrigerede nl rbejdslose i procen f den civile rbejdssyrke) pi ny^nllde op pi de mksimum pe 5,7 oo, der blev regisrere sidse ir. Denne iorverring f beskefigelsessiuionen, som i Forbundsrepublikken Tysklnd, Finkrig, De forenede Kongerige. og Luxembouig medfore en signing i den sesonrensede rbejdsloshedsprocen, skyldes fsrsl og fremmes den usedvnlig krfige signing i nlle f unge, som efer fsluningen f 9eres skolegng sogeirbejde for fsrie gng. Desuden hr de dirlige konomiske klim i sommerminederne ilskynde virksomhedslederne il fsre en forsigigere ns&elsespoliik end norml. Denne dfrerd fspejles ydelig i udviklingen i de ssonrensede nl f ledige ubesle sillinger, dgr er flde beydelig i lle medlemsser, med undgelse f Belgien, hvor de er sege ubeydelig siden pril. Tif gengld er delidsrbejdslosheden fors mindske overl; i juli vr den c. 20.under niveue e ir forinden.

8 CONSUMER PRCES FORBRUGERPRSER A : 100 Monhly vriions in, Mflnedlig rndring i '1976' ' '19 7' gl CE. EGEC Dnmrk BR Deuschlnd Frnce relnd li ff Nederlnd s BelgiqueBelgid Luxembourg Unied Kingdom,,, r, {,. r {, 7.,.., 4 7 z?. 4 < ' rl The esing in he monhly re of increse in he consumer price index for he Communiy s whole which ws in evidence in My coninued in June nd July. The welvemonh re of increse for he Communiy ws round 7 y2% in July. The impc of erlier flls in commodiy prices (in nionl cuirencies) is being seen in mny member counries, nd wge developmens hve no been such s o bring incresed upwrd pressure o ber on consumer prices, excep perhps in he UK. The index ws unchnged beween June nd July in he Federl Republic bu fell slighly in Augus. However, here hve been speific fcors, ending o increse prices, in number of cbunries. n Belgium nd he Neherlnds food prices incresed in July fer erlier flls, while in he sme monh he Duch uhoriies pplied subsnil increse in rens. ncresed public secor chrges hve been hving n impc in Frnce, where prive secor prices re lso progressively being freed. The firs of hese fcors, especilly, ws seen in he 1.2 rise in he index in July. n ly, however, he reccelerion in monhly res of increse eviden in he Spring ws reversed in July. n Denmrk he index excluding xes nd subsidies showed reurn o much more modere monhly increse in June. Efer nedgngen i signingsken i mj, er den minedlige signing i forbrugerpriserne i Fellesskbe under 6 flde yderligere i juni og juli. Den smlede inflionsk for den ienesie olvririnederiperiode er ikke deso mindre fors pi c. 7 y2%.virkningerne f de idligere regisrerede prisfld for visse rivrer viser sig nu i flere medlemsser, hvorimod lsnudviklingen, med indgelse f De forenede Kongerige, neppe hr virke simulerende pl signingen i forbrugerpriserne. Forbundsrepublikken Tysklnd er indekse uendre fr juni il juli, men flde ubeydelig i ugus. visse medlemsser hr "se rl i ge fk o rer fremine sii gn i n g:en. Si ledes seg fodev rep ri serne pfny i Belgien og NederlndEne i de foregflende mineder. og de nederlndske myndigheder gennemfore en beydelig lejeforhojelse. Frnkrig, hvoi priserne pi indusriproduker eferhinden er bleve frigive, er de imidlerid fors og fremmes forhojelsen f de offenliges kser. der ligger il grund for den signing i forbrugerprisindekse ph 1,2, der blev regisrere i juli. flien, hvor den minedlige signingsk for forbrugerpriserne pfl ny vr bleve sorre i forire, vende ender,rsen sig derimod i juli. Tilsvrende i Dnmrk er den minedlige signingsk for reguleringsprislle flde piny siden juni.

9 ^4 BALANCE OF TRADE Mio HANDELSBALANCE ce_eg_ec Dnmrk BR Deuschlnd Frnce l reno li Nederlnd E UEBL Unied Kingdom E J il 5 Reflecing he relively depressed inernl economic siuion nd he improvemen in he erms of rde, he Communiy's blnce of rde ws close o equilibruim he beginning of he summer. n Frnce nd he Neherlnds, he endency for he rde defici o decline (cibfob) coninued nd similr movemen go under wy in lrelnd. ly minined is sligh surplus up o June, while he Dnish blnce ended_o improve froin npil onwrds. Alhough, in he Unied Kingdom, modere growh of expors, ogeher wih sligh fll in impors, resuled in smller defici in June hn_in My, his counry's rde blnce deeriored once gin in July owing o shrf increse in is purchses of oil. Finlly,.he_surplus in he Federil Republic of Germny esed down in July from he relively high level recorded in he second qurer. Fellesskbes hndelsblnce, vr som flge f den indenlndske konjunkurfmning og forbedringen f bylleforholde, nsen i ligeveg i begyndelsen f sommeren. Frnkrig og Nederlndene forse endensen il en nedgng i hndelsunderskudde (ciffob) og en ilsvrende udvikling vise sig i rlnd. Endvidere fsholdes lliens beskedne overskud indil juni medens de dnske hndelsblnceforhold siden pril hr vis endens il en forbedring. Selv om der i De forenede Kongerige som folge f en moder eksporsigning kombinere med en lille nedgng i imporen i juni vr e mindre underskud end i den foregieide mlned, vider den folgende mined'en ny forvrring f hndelsblncoforholdene som folge f en beydelig signing i olieimporen. Endelig er Forbundsrepublikken Tysklnds overskud, der i nde kvrl vr forholdsvis sor, bleve lid mindre i juli.

10 Semilog. scle EXPORTS o nonmember counries Mio EKSPORT il ikke+nedlemslnde Semilog. skl B ceegec Dnmrk BR Deuschlnd Frnce lrelnd li Nedelnd UEBL _ Unied Kingdom Owing o he coninring low level of world demnd, he sesonllydjused vlue of Communiy expors o nonmember counries showed lile improvemen, in he second qurer of 1978, on he level reched he end ofls yer. The iend in volume erms ws probbly sill worse, since he expors of some Member Ses cully declined. Sles o nonmember indusrilized counries, which ccoun for some 35 of he Communiy's ol expors, were priculrly ffeced. Slckening domesic demnd in some Norhern Europen counries (rdiionl cusomers of he Communiy) nd in some Medierrnen counries gin influenced, lhough o lesser degree hn before, heir impors from Member Ses. As for sles o Norh Americ, he expor growh leders were he FederlRepublic of Germny nd he Unied Kingdom. Sles o nonoil producing developing counries pper o hve incresed only slowly indeed he Unied Kingdom's deliveries o hese counries cully fell in he second qurer. Finlly, he growh in volume erms of Communiy expors o OPEC counries seems o hve fllen below n nnul re of l0 %. Som folge f den fors ringe inernionle efersporgsel hr den ssonkorrigerede verdi i lsbende priser f Felle_sskbes ekspor il ikke:medlemslnde i nde kvrl f 1978 n eppe vcre hojere end niveue ved fsluningen f sidse 6r. Udviklingen i fse priser hr uden vivl vere endnu ringere, ide der endd hr kunne konseres en nedgng i visse medlemsser. De hr i fsrse omgng bersr Frellesskbes ekspor il indusriliserede redjelnde, som fger c. 35. f Fellesskbes smlede ekspor. Den indenlndske efersporgselsfmning i visse nordeuropeiske lnde, der er Fellesskbes rdiionelle kunder, sm i nogle middelhvslnde, hr nemlig fors, om end i mindre udsfkning end idligere, hf virkiing pi deres impor fr medlemsserne. Speciel hvd ngir eksporen il Nordmerik, er iser Forbundsrepublikken Tysklnds og De forenede Kongeriges ekspor fors sigende. Eksporen il ikkeolieproducerende udviklingslnde synes kun vrcre sege moder, og De forenede Kongeriges ekspor il disse lnde er endd flde i nde kvrl. Endelig ser de ud som om den m&ngemessige signing Fllesskbes ekspor il OPEClndene pi irsbsis nu er under l0 %.

11 B2 TRADE BETWEEN MEMBER COUNTRES Mio EUAERE Semilog. scle Bsis: HANDEL MELLEM MEDLEMSLANDENE Bsis: impor Semilog. skl Dnmrk BR Deuschlnd Frnce lrelnd li Nederlnd UEBL Unied Kingdom Afer period of firly rpid growh from ls summer onwrds, rde b6ween member cbuniries scrcely incresed during he firs hlf of However, his overll observion concels pern vrying from counry o counry. nrcommuniy impors Uy injf'eoerl Republic of Germny picked up fer sl'ckening in he firs quier. An upurn ws lso noed in relnd. n Frnce, inrcommuniy impors grew moderely in he second qurer, wheres Frnce's sles o oher Member Ses expnded sedily. Purchses by ly from he res.of he Communiy hve remined relively sble since he beginning of he yer nd is expors o oher Member Ses hve coninued o mke modere progress. The Unied Kingdom's inrcommuniy rde grew less rpidly hn is rde wih nonmember counries, in priculr wih oher Wesern Europen indusrilized counries. The rde of he oher Member Ses wih heir Communiy prners hs eiher mrked ime or gined only lile ground Jirice he beginning of he yer. Efer en forholdsvis sor opgng siden sidse romie. er hndelen inden for Fellesskbe neppe sege i forse hlvdel f Denne generelle udvikling drekker imidlerid over forskellige endenser fr lnd il lnd. Forbundsrepublikken Tysklnds impor fr ndre fllesskbslnde, hvis signingsk. fld i fsise kvrl, og derefer e opsving. Der kunne ligeledes konseres e opsving i rlnd. Frnkrig blev signingsken for imporen fr ndre frcllesskbslnde mindske i nde kvrl, medens eksporen il ndre medlemsser fors seg. liens impor fr ndre fllesskobslnde hr vere forholdsvis sbil siden begyndelsen f ire, og lndes ekspor il 4e ndre medlemsser er fors sege moder. De forenede Kongeriges hndel med de ovrige fllesskbslnde er sege i e mindre empo end lndes hndel med redjelnde og isr med de veseuropeiske indusrilnde. De ndre medlemssers hndel med der6s fellesskbsprnere hr siden ires begyndelse vrere undre eller er sege svg.

12 19 DSCOUNT RATE DSKONTOSATS CALL MONEY RATES PENGEMARKEDSRENTE B ' Dnmrk BR Deuschlnd Frnce lrelnd li Nederlnd BelgiqueBelgi6 Unied Kingdom,, r _l r T r 1 r #'{ U r r T _ 1_ J 1 J 'il T.i i Movemens of shorerm ineres res in he Communiy diverged o some exen during he summer. They endcd o fll in Frnce, in Denmrk, where he discoun re ws reduced fromg" o 8, in July, nd in ly, where i dropped_from 11.57" o 105% in Sepember. All hree counries were ble o relx ihe resriciive poficies pursued in his re s resul of he improvemen in heir exernl posiions. n conrs, ineres res were rised in he Unied Kingdom, Belgium, he Neherlnds nd lrelnd. The minimum lending re in he Unied Kingdom ws incresed from 9.o llin erly June s pr of pckge of mesures designed o dispel incipien nxieies bou he endency of economic policy. To couner he consequen ighening of he money mrke, he Bnk of Englnd relxed is policy on compulsory reserves. _n he Benelux counries he increse in he discoun re in July were inended o elimine he pressures wihin he snke on he currencies of hose counries. n he Federl Republic of Germny he money mrke remined relively srined. Afer suspending is fciliy of offering endy repurchse greemens ln midlune, he Bundesbnk rised he rediscoun quos on Julv. Der hr i lsbe f sommeren v&re visse forskelle i udviklingen den kore rene i Fllesskbe. Der blev konsere en fldende endens i Frnkrig. De smme vr ilfelde i Dnmrk, hvor diskonoen i juli blev neds fr 9 ll 9 eg i llien, hvor den i '0, sepember bl6v neds fr 1,5 il 10,5.For lle re lnde er de foibedringen f sillingen over for udlnde. der hrmuliggjor en lempelie f den resrikive poliik pi deeomride. ovrig hr der vdre renesigninger i De forenede Kongerige...Belgien. Nederlndene og ilnd. Forhojelsen f >>minimum lending re< fr 9 il l0 y,i begyndelsen fjrini vr indbefe i de kompleks f fornslininfdr, der blev gennemfor^ for lerne den beeyndende bekymring vedrorende De forenede. Kongeriges skbnomiske poliiik. For modvirke den eferfslgende srmming pi pengemrkede forse Bnk of Englnd.en smidigere ksselivoepoiik. Diskonoforhojelserne i juli i Beneluxlndene og sige pi fierne presse pl disse lndes vluer inden for selve >slngen<. Forbundsrepublikken Tysklnd vr pensemrkede sd forholdsvis srm. Efer i miden f juni i hve suspenderel idgesudlinene forhojede den yske Bundesbnk den l. juli koneringsloferne.

13 B4 lgtsl Dnmrk BR Deuschlnd FlnCe E lrelnd llli Nederlnd BelgiqueBelgiC Unied Kingdom 1'.. MONEY SUPPLY (nnul chnge) f n A ; rll l M! v u '1 i,l,r Y il PENGEFORSYNNG (nrlig rndring) 16 l r19 7l l n *{,7 f^ ( ' r v ^r h X 7 v,l v 19 7gl During he spring nd'summer, domesic liquidiy expnded differing res in he vrious Communiy counries. n hree of hem, ly, he Unied Kingdom nd relnd, money supply nrrowly defined (Ml) grew by over 20 compred wih he summer of 1977; however, o judge by he mos recen figures, he re of growh hs probbly begun o slow down in he Unied Kingdom nd lrelnd. Nex come he Federl Republic of Germny nd Frnce, where he re of increse is some l2l" nd where endency o slow down is lso discernible. Lsly, in he Benelux counries nd Denmrk, he res of increse re running s lile s bou l0"nd7respecively. n generl, money creion hs been primrily he resul of firly lively demnd for credi from boh he prive secor nd he public uhoriies; in ddiion, in boh he Federl Republic of Germny nd in ly he inflow of foreign currency hs remined significn fcor. The differing siuions in he vrious counries hve men h differing monery policies hve been needed. n June he Briish uhoriies reinroduced he 'corse', which ws exended in Augus unil June 1979: his sysem penlizes he bnks for excessive increses in ineresbering deposis by requiring hem o mke supplemenry deposis wih he Bnk of Englnd. n ly, oo, he resricion oncredi expnsion hs been exended unil Mrch 1979, hough some concessions hve been grned for smll lons. On he oher hnd, he Bundesbnk lowered he bnks'compulsory reserve rio in My nd in June he Dnish uhoriies rised he ceiling on he increse in credi by 47" fer n iniil 3oincrese he end of Februry. lsbe f sidse forflr oe sommer voksede den indenlndske likvidie i re forskellig Smfng i de forskellige fllesskbslnde. re f disse lnde, nemlig lien, De forenede Kongerige og rlnd, forogedes pengem&ngden i snver forsnd (Ml) med over 20 iforhold il sommeren 1977; dsmme efer de senese l er der imidlerid egn pi begyndende fld heri i De forenede Kongerige og rlnd. Derns kommer Forbundsrepublikken Tysklnii og Frnkrig, hvor signingsken er p&omkringl2, og hvor der ligeledes kn igges en endens il opbremsning. Endelig viser Beneluxlndene og Dnmrk kun en signingsk pi henloldsvis c. l0 op 7.. Generel skyldes pengdskselsen hovedsgelig en re livlig krediefersporgsel i bide den prive og offenlige sekor;endvidere hr ilfsrslen f udenlndsk vlu i Forbundsrepublikken Tysklnd og lien ogsi spille en rolle i denne henseende. Forskellene i lndenes udgngssiuion hr nodvendiggjor differeniere pengepoliik fr lnd il lnd. juni genindfore oe briiske myndigheder illregsindlinsordningen^ og forlngede den dernes i ugus il juni 1979 med henblik pi srffeoverdreven veks i reieber6nde bnkindlln (>Corie<). Ogsi i lien er begrensningen f krediforogelsen med visse lempelser for mindre kredier bleve forlenge il mrs Den yske Forbundsbnk senkede derimod koefhcienen for bnkernes obligoriske reserve i mj mined, mens udlinslofe i Dnmrk blev heve med 4 efer en forogelse pi 3 % i februr.

14 EXCHANGE RATES (weighed chnge in " since ls Qurer 1972) VEKSELKURSER (veje endringi y. i forhold il 1. kvr'l1972) B5 % r Dnmrk BR Deuschlnd FrnCe lrelnd li Nederlnd UEBL. BLEU Unied Kingdom EUAUCEUS $ USA 19 6r rg r r'.i =i rii ' r.,'. i., F l ll ll The summer did no resore clm o he exchnge mrkes. The firmer one of he Americn currency, eviden from he beginning of Mrch, lsed only unil he end of My. The su6sequeh decline ghered momenum nd culmined, in July nd Augus, in specculr flls gins mos of he mjor currencies. However, in he second fornigh of Augus, higher offrcil discoun re in he Unied Ses resuled in sligh rise for he dollr. For he period beween he end of Augus 1977 i.e. jus before he dollr begn o fll nd he end of Augus 1978, he Europen currencies pprecied gins he Americn currency by some 15 for he 'snke' currencies, ll, for serling, 13 for he French frnc nd 5y2% for he lir. The wekness of he dollr mus lso be prly blmed for he srins wihin he snke iself, priculrly he pressures which brough he mrk nd he Belgin frnc o he upper nd lower limis respecively of he Communiy bnd of flucuion nd necessied he pproprie inervenions. Sommeren brge ikke ro pi vlumrkede. De er endnu en gng dollren, der er hovednsvrlig for svingningeme i dee fidsium. Den sbiliesforbedring, som dollren vise fr begyndelsen f mrs, vrede kun il sluningen f mj. Den eferfolgende nedgng forverredes og ende i juli og ugus med opsigvekkende kursfld i forhold il sorsedelen f de vigigse uiluier. sidse hlvdel f ugus medfsre hevninferi f diskonossen i USA imidlerid en le signing i dollrkursen. iden mellem sluningen f ugus 1977 dvs kor fsr dollren og sluningen f ugus 1978 vr de begynde f flde europeiske vluers signing i forhold il dollren pi omkring l5 for >slngevluemes(( vedkommende, " for serling. 13. for den frnske frnc og 5 y2 for lirens vedkommende. De er il dels ligeledes den ivge dollrkurs, der er irsg il spndningerne inden for selve >slngen<<, nvnlig de pres, der hr brg mrken og den belgiske frnc'il den henholdsvis sverse og nederse giense for fllesskbsslngen, og som hr nodvendiggjor pssende inervenioner.

15 C MPORTS from nonmember counries MPORT fr ikkemedlemslnde l CE. EG E( Dnmrk Mio EUA l BR Deus ll hlnd l Frnce l, 7 r ^.fri; 1977 '976 T5,..,, 1_ '977 h,.d, 'O A lrelnd l 11 ll, r' A* li 1977 ll ''1977 h'. r^ J,. ry ' L njoenln 1977 ) F F ".v udel r f ' l ) n he erly monhs of he yer, Communiy impors were sill sluggish, nd from April onwrds ghered only lile srengh. This slckness ws minly due o he lck of buoyncy in indusril civiy, s resul of which impor demnd for rw merils nd semimnufcures ws confined o he replcemen of depleed socks on modes scle. Generlly speking. impors frbm he developing counries, including h_e oilproducing counries, eiher mrked ime or coninued o fll. The growh of Communiy purchses from indusrilized nonrember counries vri6d very considerbly from one Member Se o noher. All in ll, purchses from nonmember counries remined firly sble in he Unied Kingdom nd he Benelux counries, nd in Frnce here ws only modere increse. On he oher hnd, impors from nonmember counries showed n pprecible increse in lly, nd in he Federl Republic of Germny declining impor prices boosed he volumeof impors from nonmember counries in he firs hlf of he yer o more hn 3bove he figure recorded yer previously. Den svende udvikling, som endnu indil pril prgede Fellesskbes impor, er kun i ringe grd forbedre i iden derefer. Denne mhed skyldes hovedsgelig mnglende dynmik inden for indusrien, hvilke hr begrense efersporgslen efer impor f rivrer og hlvfbrik il kun omfe genopreelse f lgerbeholdninger. Generel se er imporen fr udviklingslndene, heri medregne de olieproducerende lnde, forbleveipfi smme niveu elle'r er fors hed flde. For si vid ngir Fllesskbes impor fr indusriliserede redielnde er denne vokse i mege forskellig omfng i de forskellige medlemsser. mporen fr ikkemedlemslnde er n&sen sbilisere i De forenede Kongerige og Beneluxlndene og er kun sege moder i Frnkrig. Der hr dog kunne konseres en signing i lien, mens en mrerkbr nedgng i imporpriserne i Forbundsiepublikken Tysklnd hr medfsr en signing i imporen fr redjelnde i fsrse hlvir pi mere end3 i forhold il Sre fsr.

16 TERMS OF TRADE BYTTEFORHOLD c : CEEGEC Dnmrk BR Deuschlnd FrnCe lrelnd Nederlnd G UEBL Unied Kingdom re f {,{ J A furher sligh improvemen in he erms of rde hs occurred in recen monhs. This hs been due no so much o he rise in expor prices, which hs remined modere, s o fcors ffecin! impor prices, from which mos of he Member Ses benefie?, rimely he depreciion of he dollr nd he movemen of impor prices for bsic merils. As resul of he fll in prices for bsic foodsuffs, he.developjng counries' expor prices expressed in dollrs hve, for he firs ime since 9i2, Gnded omrk ime, showing lile chnge over severl monhs. n ddiion, world demnd for crude oil hs been esier o mee s new sources of producion hve come on srem; since he spring, he csh price fbr crude oil hs, s resul, been flling slighly. lsbe f de sidse mineder er der ske en beskeden forbedring i byeforholde. Snrere end signingen i eksporpriserne, som hr vere beskeden, skyldes denne forbedring fkorer, der hr indvirke pi imporpriserne, og som de flese medlemslnde hr drge foldel f: dollrens nedskrivning og udviklingen i impbrpriserne pi bsisprodukerne. Som folge f prisnedgnsen foi primere levnedsmidler hr eksporpriserne udryk i dollrs i irdviklingslndene endog for fsrse gng siden 1972 ogi flere pi hinnden fslgende mineder vis en sbiliseringsendens.for si vid nsir riolie hr de vere leere dekke verdensefersporgslen] d der er ibne nye produkionskilder; fr forlre begynde siledes en svg nedgngi konnprisen pi rflolie.

17 c3 WHOLESALE PRCES ENGROSPRSER 1970 : 100 Monhly vriions in " Mlnedlig nndring i " + 2,5 CEEGEC Dnmrk BR Deuschlnd Frnce lrelnd li Nederlnd BelgiqueBelgi6 Unied Kingdom + 2,O +1,5 + 1,0 + 0,5 0 0,5 1,0 + 2,5 + 2.O + 1,5 + 1,0 +0,5. 0 0,5 1, ,5 FT AT FT A J il FilA,'4JJ 2,0 For he Communiy s whole he monhly re of increse of wholesle prices ppers o hve been rher sedy in nnul erms, round 6% for some monhs now. n Belgium, he les figure, for June, remined below h for yer erlier nd in he Federl Republic wholesle prices in July were prciclly unchnged from yer before. n Denmrk here hs been moderie rend in recen monhs. n some counries, however, recen monhomonh chnges indice h he decelerion in wholesle price increses (or, in some cses, flls) my hve been hled for he ime being. Wholesle prices re rising gin in Belgium, nd here hve been hins of some sligh reccelerion in fhe Unied Kingdom nd lrelnd. n ll hree counries merils prices were rising in he spring nd erly summer, lhough he movemen of UK merils prices ws reversed in July. Alhough he June increse in Frnce ws smller hn h in My i noneheless remined higher hn he rend increse during he ler hlf of However, he prices of rw rnerils impors ino Frnce fell shrply beween June nd July: he fll of nerly lzy"over he yer o July my help reduce he impc of he freeing of indusril prices. n lly, he rend re of increse of wholesle prices in recen monhs seems o hve been, expressed s n nnul re, round l0% somewh higher hn he end of 1977.n he Neherlnds, by conrs, producer prices fell slighly in April fer some monhs of smll increses. Fellesskbe som helhed hr den minedlige signing i engrospriserne i nogle mineder hold sig under en irsk pi 6. For Belgiens vedkommende li lle for jun! de senes ilgbngelige under de ilsvrende niveu fr ire fsr, mens foiskellen for Forbundsrepublikken Tysklnd fr de ene ir il de nde i juli mined vr n&sen lig nul. Dnmrk hr endensen il fdempning fors i de senese mineder. For visse medlemslndes vedkommende lder den sidse ids minedlige svingninger imidlerid formode, der er le om en fbrydelse i denne flempning f engrosprisernes signing eller for visse lndes vedkommende f nedgngen heri. 'Disse priser er i ovrig begynd sige i Belgien. og i De forenede Kongerige og rlnd hr mn igge visse egn p& en svg ccelerion. disse re lnde medfsre vluendringe.rne i forbre. _og begyndelsen f sommeren en prissigning pi rivrerne; i De foienede Kongerige vende endensei imidlerid ijuli mined. Frnkrig er signingen i engrospriserne rods den svge fdmpning, der regisreredes i smme mined forbleve hojere end iiigningsindensen i nde hlvir De bsr imidlerid fremhves, imporpriserne pi rivrer i dee lnd fld merkbr mellem juni ogjuli mined: den smlede nedgng pi nesen 12 siden ires begyndelse kn evenuel delvis udligne virkningen f indusriprisernes liberlisering. lien hr igningen i engrospriserne i de sidse m&neder formodenlig nie i0 %" pf, iribsis, hvilke er lid hojere end lle foi sluningen f sidse ir. Nederlndene flsse en svg nedgng i produklionspriserne i pril mflned derimod den beskedne signing i de foregiende mflneder.

18 RETAL SALES DETALOMS,flTNTNG C4 l CEEGE l l Dnmrk 1970: l BR Deus rlnd '977 z J' ' 200 r80 F l l 1977 q C ' l J rl P76l 220 ll Frnce ll lrelnd 380 li.i 1 978, 340 frre frl l ", n lr 1977 ^ ll 197i (gi ll l J l l 160 Neherl!no ' JFTAilJJAS.J ' 180 Jrgifr". ielgi6.. ed l 19 '.' JPJ ul'i"l ri gl,.nl 4" 1 q7r {f, ll FTAT '977 ' 4976 l AS r n he Communiy reil sles hve in generl been dvncing s decelering consumer prices nd, in some counries, fiscl mesures hve been boosing rel incomes in he firs hlf of he yer. The June reil sles figures for he Federl _ R_eplblic brough he volume increse beween he firs hlves of 1977 nd 19781o 4o, while new cr regisrions were very high in July. Afer srong firs qurer, reil sles in lly rose by furher 4.4"in he second qurer. n Frnce, oo, growh in reil sles coninued in he second qurer. n he Unied Kingdom here ws volume increse of 5" in reil sles beween he second hlf of 1977 nd he firs hlf of 1978; new cr regisrions incresed much more shrply sill. Alhough sles in he Neherlnds were slighly lower in April nd My hn he very high Mrch sles, he verge level for he firs five monhs of 1978 ws 9.higher hn for he sme period of 1977.n Belgium he My figures poin o volume increse of 2.8" on n_nnul compiison. n Denmrk, by conrs, reil sles in he firs five monhs of 1978 ken ogeher were nerly 2odown on he sme period in Signingen i Fellesskbes deilomsning forse generel se i s'omrierens lsb. Denne signing skyldes forbedringen i husholdningernes relindkoms, hvilke igen skyldes dempningen i prissigningerne i fsrse hlvir og, for nogle medlemslndes iedkirmmeide, keleelser. Forbirndsrepiblikken Tysklnd vise llene for juni en forogelse f deilomseningens omfng i fsrse hlvir hlvflr oli p8 pei 4'A i % i forhold il smme idsrum i Desuden vr nlle f indreei indregisrerede nye biler mege hsj i juli mined. lien eferfulges de ilfredssillende resuler for fsrse kvrl f en yderligere signin gpi4,4 indekvrl. Ogsi i Frnkrig er der i.nde kvrl ske en fors signing i deilomsningen. De forenede Kongerige er der konsere en signing i deilomsningen p5% mellem nde hlvlr 1977 o! fsrse hlvir 1978; signirigen hlr vere endnu krfigere forsi vid ngir nlle f indregisrerede nye biler. Nederlndene er llene for pril og mj en smule lvere end de udmerkede resuler fof mri: men sennemsnisniveue for ires fsrse fem mineder l8 9 o over niieue for de smme idsrum i Belgien viser resulerne for mj pi irsbsis en signing_ pi 2,8 7" i fse priser. Dnmrk viser de smlede l for de fem fsrse mineder f 1978 derimod en ilbgegng pi 2'.iforhold il den ilsvrende periode i 1977.

19 RESULTS OF THE BUSNESS SURVEY 1) OF COMMUNTY NDUSTRY RESULTATER AF KONJUNKTURUNDERSOGELSEN) NDUSTRSEKTOREN T F NLLESSKABET % of nswers oo f svr CEEG_EC BR Deuschlnd Frnce llli. r lrel nd Nederlnd Belgie Tol orderbooks Bedsmmelse f den smlede ordrebeholdning ie76rr JFMAMJJA J AS O N D 7o of nswers oo l svr TT ^f Assessmen of socks of finished goods Bedsmmelse f CE EG, EC 8R Deuschlnd Fnce lllr lrolnd Nederlnd BelgiqueBelgid JFMAMJJASONOJFMA ASONO J FMAMJ J A SONO J FMA MJ J ASONO r) Excluding consucion, food, beverges nd obcco. r) Eksklusive bygge og nlegsvirksomhed, nerings og nydelsesmiddelindusri.

20 TTf Expecions : producion ' f O % of nswers oo l svr CE EG, EC BR Dcurshlnd Frncg lrelnd l E Nodslnd EclgiqueEolgie Uni.d Krngdom r ro J A SO N D J Ffl AT J J A S O N D J FT AT J A S O N DJ FT AT J J A 5 O N D Grpls f show businessmen's views of heir ol orderhooks nd heir socks of finished goods, represened s hreemonh moving verges of he ifference belween he percenge of hose who fnd hem "bove norml" ( * ) nd he percenge of hose who find hem "below norml" (. Grph shows hreemonh moving verges of he difference (s percenge of replies) beween he number of businessmen who expeced producion o be up ( ) nd hose who expeced i o be down (). The sble below shows businessmen's ssessmens of heir ol orderbooks, foreign orderbooks nd socks of finished goods during he ls hree monhs, ( + ) beng bove norml, (: ) being norml, () being below norml. lso shows wheher. hey expec he following hree or four monhs o bring n increse ( * ), no chnge ( : ) or deuese () in heir producion nd in heir selling prices. Digrmmerne og l gengiver re mdneders glidende gennemsni J' forskelsverdien mellem virksomhedsledernes svr >rsorre<< ( + ) og >>mindr e<< ( ) vedr or ende or dr e bes nd og fcr digvr elgr e. Digrm viser ligeledes i form f re mdneders glidende gennemsni forskelsvcrdim (procen f svrene) mellem virksomhedsledernes forvenninger il en >>forogelse<< (+) eller en >>formindskelse< () f produkionen. Nedensdende bel gengiver for de senese re mdneder virksomhedsledernes bedsmmelse f, om de smlede ordrebeholdninger, udlndsordrer og frdigvrelgre vr forholdsvis sore ( * ), normle ( : 1 eller forholdsvis smd ('). Desuden er virksomhedsledernes forvenninger om voksende ( ), nogenlunde uendrede 1:) eller fgende () produkion og.slgspriser i de folgende re eller fire mdneder dor. CounrYLnd QuesionsSporgsmAl Tol orderbooks Den smlede ordre beholdning Expor orderbooks Den udenlndske ordrebeholdnins Socks of finished goods Fe rdigvrelgre BR Deul schlnc Frnce MJJ MJJ r 8' l + u) l7 14 l l 10 ' Expecions : producion r Produkionsforvenningerne 4 ir 7 Expecions: selling prices '83 84 Sl gsprisforvenninger ll 'l l l l 2l lrelnd li MJJ MJJ s r r l0 l ' l l Nederlnd MJJ 6' l l Belgique Belgid Luxem. bourg Unied Kingdom MJJ MJJ MJJ l l l' E l ll 'n69 l ' l 3 l0 l EC FF MJJ E l5 7l l