1 AARHUS UNIVERSITET Pollution from shipping in Denmark Thomas Ellermann, Helge R. Olesen, Jesper Christensen, Morten Winther, and Marlene Plejdrup National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University
2 Background for presentation Emissions from ship traffic is important for air quality in Denmark and have impact on health and environment. The uncertainty on the emissions are large both with respect to size and spatial variation of emissions.
3 The old emission inventory 50 km x 50 km grid cells Uncertain information on shipping routes 2.7% sulphur content (2006) while the IMO regulations limits sulphur content to 1.5% (2007) Source: European monitoring programme for air quality, EMEP
4 Project for the Danish EPA in 2009 Aim of the project: New emission inventory for ship traffic in Danish marine waters. SO 2, NOx and particle emissions Model calculations of the impact of ship traffic on air quality in Denmark in year Evaluate the impact on air quality of the IMO regulations of the emissions from ship traffic.
5 New emission inventory based on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) AIS systemet:
6 New emission inventory based on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) Information on actual sailing routes, engine size and type, velocity emission factors for the different engines as function of engine load AIS systemet: All ships for 24 randomly chosen days in 2007
7 The new emission inventory for SO 2 1 km x 1 km resolution 1000 kg SO 2 per year per km 2
8 The new and old emission inventory for SO 2
9 Modelcalculations using DEHM 3D chemical and transport model Covers the entire northern hemisphere Processes in the model: - Emissions - Atmospheric transport, - Chemical tranformations - Dry and wet deposition 63 chemical compounds Spatial resolution: km x 150 km - 50 km x 50 km - 16,67 km x 16,67 km - 5,7 km x 5,7 km 15 km height
10 Model calculations using DEHM Emissions Mixing between the layers Dry deposition Wet deposition 6 km Transport with wind Chemical reactions Emissions Emissions 6 km
11 PM2.5 in the model Directly emitted PM 2.5 Secondary inorganic particles: NO + O 3 NO 2 NO 2 + OH HNO 3 HNO 3 + NH 3 NH 4 NO 3 mpm 2.5 SO 2 H 2 SO 4 H 2 SO 4 + NH 3 NH 3 HSO 4 NH 3 + NH 3 HSO 4 (NH 3 ) 2 SO 4 About 50% of PM2.5 in the atmosphere is not included in the model among others secondry organic particles
12 Model calculations average concentrations in Denmark Emissions, 1000 tons Annual emissions from ships in Danish marine New emissions Concentration, µg/m 3 Concentration Old Emissions in air 8, ,0 6,0 5,0 Old emissions New emissions 4,0 3,0 2,0 SO2 1,0 NOx PM2.5 0,0 SO2 NO2 mpm2.5
13 Model calculations amount from ship traffic Emissions, 1000 tons Annual emissions from ships in Danish marine New emissions Concentration Old Emissions in air 8,0 7, Amount from ships, % 6,0 80 5,0 Old emissions ,0 New emissions 60 Concentration, µg/m 3 3,0 2,0 40 SO2 NOx PM2.5 1,0 30 0,0 Amount from ships, % SO2 10 NO2 mpm2.5 Old emissions New emissions 0 SO2 NO2 mpm2.5
14 Validation of model and emissions 4 Concentration, µg/m SO2 EMEP-ref AIS-2007 Measurements 0 HCØ Lille Valby Keldsnor Tange Ulborg Anholt
15 Concentration, µg/m Secondary Inorganic Particles EMEP-ref AIS-2007 Measurements 1 0 HCØ Lille Valby Keldsnor Tange Ulborg Anholt 20 Concentration, µg/m NO2 EMEP-ref AIS-2007 Measurements 2 0 HCØ Lille Valby Keldsnor Tange Ulborg Anholt
16 Scenarios for emissions in 2020 IMO-regulatios of ship emissions are fully implemented: Limit values for sulphur content in heavy fuel oil. This leads to reductions in emisions of PM 2.5 Limit values for emissions of NOx from ship engines. Danish waters follows rules for nitrogen emission control area (NECA) Sceniarios for emissions of land based emissions are from International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.
17 Regulatons of SO2 emissions North Sea and Baltic Sea are Sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECA) 5 4 Non-SECA Sulphur content (%) 3 2 SECA
18 Model calculation for 2007 and 2020 Concentration of SO 2, µg/m ,50 < 2,25-2,50 2,00-2,25 1,75-2,00 1,50-1,75 1,25-1, ,25 0,75-1,00 0,50-0,75 < 0,50
19 NOx Figur 6 Beregnede koncentrationer af NO 2 i μg/m 3. Til venstre er vist situationen i 2007, til højre situationen i Der sker næsten ingen ændring i udslippet af NO x fra skibstrafik mellem de to tidspunkter, mens der er markante reduktioner for landbaserede kilder.
20 mpm2.5 Figur 7 Beregnede koncentrationer i μg/m 3 af mpm 2.5, der er den del af partikelmassen, som kan beregnes af luftforureningsmodellen. Der er tale om primære partikler samt om sekundære uorganiske partikler, mens man ved for lidt om sekundære organiske partikler til at kunne beskrive dem modelmæssigt. Til venstre er vist situationen i 2007, til højre situationen i 2020.
21 Long term trend for air quality in Denmark towards ,0 Concentration, µg/m 3 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 Other sources Ships 0, SO2 NO2 mpm2.5 Average concentrations over Danish land areas
22 Concentration, µg/m 3 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 SO2 Other sources ships Concentration, µg/m3 20,0 18,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 NO2 Other sources ships 0,2 2,0 0,0 0, HCØ Lille Valby HCØ Lille Valby 10,0 Development in the concentrations of SO 2, NO 2 and model calculated mpm 2.5 at the urban background station at the H.C. Ørsteds Institute (HCØ) and at the rural background station Lille Valby. Concentration, µg/m3 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 mpm2.5 Other sources ships 1,0 0, HCØ Lille Valby
23 Conclusions Large improvements with the new ship emission inventory. The new inventory results in smaller emissions from ship traffic. In 2007 the average contribution from ships were about: SO2 33% NO2 21 % mpm % PM2.5 9% Scenario calculations for 2020 shows significant impact of the IMO regulations of sulphur. For NO2 and PM2.5 a smaller impact is calculated.
24 Health costs of air pollution from shipping Assessment of Health-Cost Externalities of Air Pollution at the National Level using the EVA Model System J. Brandt, J. D. Silver, L. M. Frohn, J. H. Christensen, M. S. Andersen, C. Geels, A. Gross, A. B. Hansen, K. M. Hansen, G. B. Hedegaard, and C. A. Skjøth
25 The EVA system Economic Valuation of Air pollution Based on the impact pathway chain
26 Thanks to the : Danish EPA and Partnership for Cleaner shipping Farvandsvæsnet for AIS-data Hans Otto Kristensen, DTU and a lot of colleagues that contributed to the succes of the project