Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 24. juni 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens fokus vil givet være på følgerne af resultatet af gårsdagens EU-afstemning i Storbritannien, herunder ikke mindst hvorledes finansmarkederne vil tage imod forlad -resultatet (jf. nedenfor). I skyggen af reaktionen på brexit-afstemningen modtager vi lidt interessante begivenheder i euroområdet. ECB annoncerer således resultatet af den første TLTRO-II likviditetsuddeling, som blev annoncerede i forbindelse med stimulanspakken i marts. Vi ved allerede, at EUR 370 mia. er blevet opsagt under de gamle mindre fordelagtige TLTRO er, og vi venter blot en lille netto-stigning i bankernes likviditetsoptag på omkring EUR 20 mia. ved dagens annoncering. Det på trods af, at man under visse omstændigheder har negativ rente på den lånte likviditet, men vi ser stadig at efterspørgslen efter lån er afdæmpet, samt at QE-opkøbene har forsynet markederne med ekstra likviditet. Blandt dagens tal får vi tysk IFO. Ifo-indekset er steget de seneste tre måneder, men ikke mere end det dermed kun har indhentet godt halvdelen af det mistede terræn i årets første to måneder. I juni ventes indekset at falde en smule tilbage, hvilket nok især skal tilskrives brexit-frygt. Ifo og ZEW barometrene peger således fortsat på, at tysk økonomi oplever vækstafmatning i 2. kvartal (oven på uventet stærkt 1. kvartal), og derefter kommer lidt op i tempo igen (se figur).. USA byder ind med ordreindgangen på varige goder for maj, og kerneordrerne (ikke-militære kapitalgoder eksklusiv fly, som er en god proxy for investeringerne i nationalregnskabet) har skuffet noget de seneste tre måneder. Dermed har de ikke vist tegn på synderligt øget investeringslyst oven på det meget svage 1. kvartal. Der ventes blot en flad udvikling i maj, hvilket er nogenlunde i overensstemmelse med ISM s ordreindeks. Morgenmelding går på sommerferie og vender tilbage mandag den 8. august. IFO peger fortsat på vækstafmatning Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Torsdagen var præget af en tendens til aftagende risikoaversion frem mod resultatet af brexit-afstemningen med stigende børser, faldende renter stærkere EUR, GBP højere oliepriser til følge. Men resultatet ser ud til morgen ud til at blive et forlad, og det har givet anledning til store drop på Asiens børser på over 4% (MSCI), faldt i FTSE100 futures på over 7%, svækket GBP på op imod 10% mod USD mens JPY og CHF styrkes. Derudover falder sikre US-renter samt oliepris og guldprisen stiger. Storbritannien: EU-afstemningen ser ud til at ende med en lidt overraskende sejr til forlad -siden. I skrivende stund hvor der er optalt lidt over 90% af stemmerne peger prognosen på, at lige under 52% har stemt forlad mod 48% for bliv. Der var i øvrigt tale om en historisk høj valgdeltagelse på over 70%. Dermed går vi ind i en usikker og sikkert langstrakt forhandlingsperiode, om end det er usikkert om briterne straks benytter artikel 50 i EU-traktaten for at opstarte løsrivelsesprocessen dertil synes forlad -sejren for spinkel. På den korte bane vil fokus umiddelbart være på de politiske reaktioner samt ikke mindst reaktionen på finansmarkederne. Det bliver spændende at se hvorledes reaktionen bliver, når Europa åbner senere i dag. Her må ventes en videreførelse af den markant stigende risikoaversion, vi allerede har set tegn på i Asien-handlen. Dog ventes myndighederne at have stabiliserende værktøjer parat, så ind til videre tvivler vi på, at det får lov til at forplante sig til en mere omfattende finansiel krise. Bank of England har så allerede været på banen til morgen og sige at man er klar til at benytte alle nødvendige midler for at sikre stabilitet, og spørgsmålet er om vi blandt andet får en rentenedsættelse. For uddybende kommentar se under "Nyt fra cheføkonomen" på vores hjemmeside. USA: Antallet af nye ledige på overførselsindkomst faldt mere end ventet i sidste uge til det laveste niveau i otte uger. Det er endnu en indikation på at de skuffende svage beskæftigelsestal i maj er et midlertidigt fænomen. Markits fremstillings-pmi steg i juni lidt kraftigere end ventet til 51,4, hvilket dog er nogenlunde i overensstemmelse med bedring vi allerede så i det vigtigere ISM-fremstillingsindeks i maj. Bloombergs ugentlige forbrugertillidsindeks steg i sidste uge temmelig kraftigt og er dermed tilbage på niveauet fra tre måneder siden. Endelig modtog vi salget af nye boliger, som faldt lidt mere end ventet i maj, men faldet var dog blot halvt så stort som stigningen i april, som bragte salget op i rekord siden Euroområdet: Det foreløbige PMI-indeks (composite) for juni faldt uventet til 52,8 fra forrige 53,1. Vi vurderer, at det især skyldes brexit-usikkeheden, som lidt uventet især så ud til at have dæmpet optimismen i servicesektoren, herunder forventningerne til fremtiden. Derimod steg fremstillingssektorens PMI lidt uventet, især understøttet af en pæn stigning i tysk PMI (til 54,4) til det højeste niveau siden februar Fransk composite-pmi skuffede fælt, da det faldt tilbage under 50 i juni. Spørgsmålet er således om PMI fortsætter nedad i de kommende måneder efter forlad -resultatet af brexit-afstemningen? Belgisk erhvervstillid (fra Belgiens centralbank) steg til gengæld i juni uventet kraftigt til det højeste niveau i mere end fem år. Denne er ofte blevet anset som en god gennemsnitsindikator for hele euroområdet. Norge: Norges Bank holdt som ventet renten uændret på 0,5% på gårsdagens rentemøde. Lidt uventet trak centralbanken en smule op i den ventede rentesti - baseret på ventede højere oliepris end tidligere - men ikke mere end at den venter endnu en rentenedsættelse inden udgangen af september, og at denne bliver den sidste. Det skal dog understreges, at udmeldingen var baseret på et britisk bliv -resultat. UK: Udsigt til sejr til forlad -siden Seneste prognose af resultat, % "Bliv" "Forlad" Kilde: BBC For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 24. juni 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier Det ledende danske indeks OMXC20 CAP (+1,86% / indeks 1023,47) sluttede gårsdagens handel i plus og kunne dermed fortsætte de foregående fire handelsdages positive tendens, hvor risikovilligheden var tiltagende som følge af at bliv -siden fik medvind i meningsmålingerne. Især aktier med en høj beta-værdi havde medvind i går. I toppen af det ledende danske indeks endte A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+11,87% / kurs 9140,00). Det skete i kølvandet på, at det fra konglomeratet blev meddelt, at Mærsk-topchef Nils Smedegaard Andersen bliver erstattet af Søren Skou. Der blev i den anledning blandt andet nævnt muligheden for, at splitte konglomeratet op i flere mindre enheder. Denne melding var populær blandt investorerne. I bunden af det ledende danske indeks endte Nordea (-5,60% / kurs 59,05). Både ABG, Swedbank og JPMorgan sænkede i går deres anbefalinger på aktien fra Køb til Hold. De seneste dages skriverier om, at Nordea mangler kapital svarende til mia. SEK kan have skabt en frygt for, at Nordea vil være tvunget til at skære i sine udbytter. Stigende udbytter har længe været en væsentlig kursdriver for aktien. Renter Obligationsmarkederne var torsdag præget af en vis tendens til mindsket brexit-frygt, og vi så de sikre statsrenter stige mens EURperiferirenterne faldt. Således var nøgletallene nok sat på sidelinjen, og man kunne da også argumentere for at faldet i EUR-PMI i juni netop var under indflydelse af tiltagende brexit-frygt. EU-afstemningen ser ud til at ende med en lidt overraskende sejr til forlad -siden, og reaktionen har ind til videre sendt de amerikanske statsrenter nedad med næsten 30 basispunkter. Vi venter, at dagen vi være præget af stigende risikopræmier med dyk i de sikre euro-renter, herunder især tyske, som må ventes at komme ned under 0% igen. EUR-periferirenterne vil komme under opadgående pres. Danske renter vil også falde, og der vil givet blive spekuleret i muligheden for en rentenedsættelse fra Nationalbanken. Valuta Torsdagen var præget af en vis afventet forud for morgenens resultat af brexit-afstemning, men der sneg sig dog en vis tendens til mindsket risikoaversion ind på markederne med stærkere GBP og EUR til følge, mens JPY, CHF og USD blev svækket. EUR blev således styrket på trods af at PMI-indekset i juni viste et uventet fald, hvilket dog i høj grad nok kunne tilskrives netop den øgede brexitusikkerhed. Samtidigt faldt gårsdagens strøm af USA-nøgletal overordnet ud til den lidt bedre side end ventet, hvilket tog toppen af USD-svækkelsen. NOK og SEK blev også styrket på den mindskede risikoaversion, og NOK fik let ekstra skub fra stigende oliepriser samt rentemødet hvor Norges Bank var en smule mere høgeagtig end ventet. Resultatet af den britiske afstemning ser ud til at blive en sejr til forlad -siden, og det har allerede sendt GBP ned med knapt 10% mod USD. sikker havn -valutaer styrkes, herunder JPY og CHF. EUR svækkes ligeledes mod USD, men dog mere beskedent med omkring 3,5%. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland (0.14) USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 24. juni 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM/YoY) Jun %/7.8% 0.8%/5.5% :50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted May 113.4b b 269.8b :00 Tyskland PPI (MoM/YoY) May 0.4%/-2.8% %/-3.1% 0.4%/-2.7% :00 EMU ECB's Yves Mersch speaks EMU EU Foreign Ministers Hold Meeting :30 UK PSNB ex Banking Groups May 9.5b b 9.7b% :00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Current Situation Jun :00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Expectations Jun :00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders Jun :00 USA Yellen Testifies on Monetary Policy to Senate Banking Panel :00 Danmark Consumer Confidence Indicator Jun :00 Danmark Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) May 0.2%/- -0.8%/- 1%/1.1% 0.0%/0.3% :00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Jun :30 Sverige Unemployment Rate SA May 6.9% 7.0% 6.7% 7.2% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 17. jun % 2.9% :00 USA FHFA House Price Index MoM Apr 0.6% % 0.2% :00 EMU Consumer Confidence Jun A :00 USA Fed Chair Yellen Speaks Before House Financial Services Panel :00 USA Existing Home Sales May 5.55m m 5.53m :45 Kina MNI June Business Indicator :00 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Jun P :45 Frankrig Manufacturing Confidence Jun :00 Norge Deposit Rates 23. jun 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jun P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Jun P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Jun P :30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index May :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 18. jun 270k k 259k :00 Belgien Business Confidence Jun :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 19. jun :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Jun P :00 USA New Home Sales May 560k k (r) 551k :45 Frankrig GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q F 0.6%/1.4% %/1.4% :00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Jun :30 EMU TLTROII auction result :30 USA Durable Goods Orders May P -0.5% % :30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air May P 0.1% % :00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Jun F :00 Frankrig Jobseekers Net Change May Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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