Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 13. september 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Fokus i dag vil formentlig primært være rettet mod gårsdagens mere dueagtige meldinger fra Fed s Brainard (se nedenfor), som kan give stigende aktiekurser og lavere renter i Europa fra morgenstunden. Der er ikke så mange nøgletal på programmet, om end vi fra USA får NFIB-opgørelsen af stemningen blandt de mindre og mellemstore virksomheder i august. Hvis indekset som ventet i markedet stiger en smule, vil det formentlig aflive lidt af bekymringen over den negative udvikling i ISM-opgørelserne i sidste uge, da det vil styrje indtrykket af, at der var ekstraordinære midlertidige faktorer bag tilbagegangen. Skulle NFIB-indekset imidlertid falde markant tilbage, vil det øge bekymringen om tilstanden i amerikansk økonomi og understøtte forventningerne om ingen renteforhøjelser i september som også fik medvind af Fed s Brainard i går. Det tyske ZEW-barometer for september ventes at være steget en smule og dermed vise yderligere bedring oven på det store fald i juli. Især bedringen på aktiemarkedet bør understøtte dette, om end de seneste skuffende industrital samt den (for nogle) lidt skuffende indsats fra ECB på september-rentemødet kan dæmpe potentialet for stigning. En stigning i ZEW-forventningsindekset ville være i tråd med udviklingen allerede set i euroområdets Sentix-indeks. Forud for torsdagens rentemøde i Bank of England (BoE) vil der også være en vis fokus på de britiske forbrugerpriser for august. Vi venter at inflationen vil være steget for 3. måned i træk, og at vi vil se at det svage GBP begynder at trække op i de importfølsomme priser. Tallet ventes således at understøtte forventningerneom, at også BoE vil afholde sig fra yderligere lempelser. Vi venter, at både den overordnede og underliggende inflation i Sverige steg en smule i august, men ikke nok til at rykke ved forventningerne til Riksbanken. US: Vil de små virksomheder følge trop? Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De europæiske aktiemarkeder endte dagen i negativt territorium. Efter de store fald i fredags endte de amerikanske markeder dog med pæne stigninger efter dueagtige meldinger fra Fed, mens stemningen i Asien i nat har været lidt mere blandet. Obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland havde pilen opad fra morgenstunden, og endte dagen med stigninger. EUR blev svækket en smule over for USD, mens JPY blev styrket yderligere. Kina: Industriproduktionen steg med 6,3% y/y i august, hvilket var lidt bedre end ventet i markedet. Stigningen kom til trods for, at en række virksomheder holdt lukket i slutningen af august beordret af myndighederne for at mindske luftforureningen på G20-mødet. Højere industriproduktionsvækst er i tråd med vores synspunkt om, at den del af industrien, som ikke er berørt af den igangværende proces med at få nedbragt overkapaciteten i den tunge industri, faktisk klarer sig ganske pænt. Væksten i de faste investeringer rettede sig også i august efter fire måneders fald. Nedbringelsen af overkapacitet lægger også en dæmper på investeringerne, men især (statslige) infrastrukturinvesteringer klarer sig fortsat OK. Opgjort år-til-dato blev væksten fastholdt på 8,1% y/y i august%, men det svarer ifølge vores beregninger til et stort spring opad i den årlige vækstrate (se figur). Detailsalget overraskede også positivt idet årsvæksten steg til 10,6% i august fra 10,2% y/y, mod ventet uændret vækst USA: Fokus var i rettet mod de tre Fed-taler, der er de sidste på programmet inden næste uges rentemøde. Fed s Lockhart, der pt. ikke er stemmeberettiget, fastholdt, at der trods et par svage nøgletal på det seneste stadig er tilstrækkeligt momentum i økonomien til at en renteforhøjelse kræver en seriøs diskussion. Fed s Kashkari der heller ikke er stemmeberettiget talte om behovet for finanspolitiske tiltag og strukturelle reformer for at styrke den økonomiske vækst. Han understregede, at pengepolitikkens mulighed for alene at styrke væksten i en økonomi, der allerede er tæt på fuld beskæftigelse, er begrænset. Med hensyn til renten så han dog ikke at det hastede med at foretage sig noget. Den tale der var mest fokus på var dog fra Fed s Brainard, som ses som et af de mest dueagtige medlemmer af Fed. Hendes tale var annonceret relativt sent, og der var spekulationer om, at hun ved at lyde mere høgeagtig kunne medvirke til at øge markedernes forventninger til snarlige renteforhøjelser og derigennem give Fed et større råderum på rentemødet i næste uge muligvis på samme måde som fredagens tale fra Fed s Rosengreen. Brainard skød dog en hvid pil igennem disse spekulationer, da hun leverede en tale, der indikerede at hun ikke så grund til at skynde sig med at få sat renten op. Hendes argument var, at givet usikkerhederne omkring inflationen og den globale vækst så er konsekvenserne ved at vente med at få sat renten meget mindre end de potentielle negative effekter ved at sætte renten op for tidligt. Dermed understregede hun, at den dueagtige del af Fed stadig har argumenter for at holde renten i ro, og markedet indpriser nu efter talen kun 22% sandsynlighed for en renteforhøjelse i næste uge - et fald fra 30%. Danmark: Forbrugerpriserne faldt med 0,3% m/m i august, hvilket trak årsstigningstakten ned fra 0,3% til 0,2%. Det var lavere end ventet i markedet, men ikke langt fra vores skøn. Det var som vi havde ventet det især en reversering af den store stigning i lejen af sommerhuse i juli, der medvirkede til at dæmpe den månedlige stigningstakt. Den fortsat lave inflation ser dog ikke ud til for alvor at sætte skub i forbrugslysten. Dankortforbruget faldt således med 1% m/m i august når renset for pengeoverførsler og trend. Det er 2. måned i træk med faldende dankortforbrug. Kina: Investeringerne rebounder For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 13. september 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier Det ledende danske indeks OMXC20 CAP (-0,47% / indeks 1.015,44) endte i negativt territorium på ugens første handelsdag og fortsatte dermed den dystre stemning fra sidste uge. Stemningen var fortsat præget af øget bekymring for om en renteforhøjelse i USA er nærtforestående. De fornyede bekymringer gav øget volatilitet og medførte at flere benyttede lejligheden til at sælge ud af deres aktiebeholdning. Værst gik det ud for A.P. Møller-Mærsk (-1,56% / kurs ,00) efter at have været inde en god opadgående trend de seneste par uger. Nordea (-1,20% / kurs 65,90) var også hårdt under pres i dagens handel på trods af, at et internationalt finanshus var ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. TDC (-0,21% / kurs 37,24) endte også en smule lavere på trods af, at et internationalt finanshus var ude og hæve anbefalingen og kursmålet på aktien. I den anden ende af indekset endte Novo Nordisk (+0,74% / kurs 298,30) efter et internationalt finanshus var ude og hæve anbefalingen på aktien. Det skete efter aktien endte i det laveste niveau i 1½ år. Renter Der var ikke de store nøgletal på programmet til at sætte retningspilen for obligationsmarkederne i går, hvor stemningen så ud til fortsat at være præget af udsigten til en mindre aggressiv tilgang til pengepolitikken fra centralbankerne rundt omkring i verden. Det betød at obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland fra morgenstunden fortsatte den stigende tendens fra sidste uge. Stemningen på aktiemarkederne var ligeledes negativ, og det kan muligvis have bremset lidt af tendensen til stigende renter, om end kausaliteten mellem markederne for indeværende ikke er helt normal. Gårsdagens fokus var især rettet mod tre taler fra amerikanske centralbanksmedlemmer. Stigende spekulationer om muligheden for en renteforhøjelse fra Fed allerede i næste uge har været en drivkraft for den negative stemning på obligationsmarkederne. Fed s Lockhart fastholdt da også indtrykket af at en renteforhøjelse kunne være i spil, men både Fed s Kashkari og Fed s Brainard nedspillede behovet for at Fed bør sætte renten op allerede nu. Især sidstnævnte var der stor fokus på, men hendes meldinger faldt altså ud til den dueagtige side, og det trak ned i de amerikanske renter efter europæisk lukketid. Trods bedre end ventede kinesiske nøgletal i nat betyder det, at vi godt kan se rentefald fra morgenstunden i Europa. Valuta EUR blev svækket over for USD fra morgenstunden formentlig trukket af at forventningerne til en mulig renteforhøjelse fra Fed allerede i næste uge fortsat lå og ulmede i markederne. Der var ikke de store nøgletal på programmet til at sætte retningspilen. Markedernes bekymringer om en snarlig renteforhøjelse så dog ud til at glide lidt i baggrunden i løbet af dagen, trods fortsatte argumenter fra Fed s Lockhart for det modsatte. Meldingen fra Fed s Kashkari og Fed s Brainard trak dog i den mere dueagtige retning, og specielt sidstnævntes argumenter for at holde renten i ro indikerer, at vi ikke kommer til at se en renteforhøjelse i næste uge, og det medvirkede til at svække USD over for EUR igen, om end den europæiske fællesvaluta ikke tabte det hele igen. JPY blev dog styrket over for USD allerede fra morgenstunden som følge af den negative udvikling på aktiemarkederne, og den bevægelse fik lidt yderligere medvind efter Brainards tale. En lidt mere positiv stemning på aktiemarkederne i USA og i Asien har dog formentlig begrænset JPY-styrkelsen i nat. GBP blev styrket over for EUR i takt med at markederne indpriser mindre sandsynlighed for yderligere pengepolitiske lempelser i lyset af den modstandskraft økonomien ser ud til at have over for brexit. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA USD/DKK Euroland EUR/DKK UK GBP/DKK Danmark CHF/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 13. september 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber D ato Selskab R egnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk Kina Aggregate Financing CNY Aug 900.0b b Kina New Yuan Loans CNY Aug 725.0b b 12/09/16 01:50 Japan Machine Orders MoM/YoY Jul -3%/0.3% %/-0.9% 4.9%/5.2% 12/09/16 09:00 Danmark CPI MoM/YoY Aug 0.0%/0.5% -0.2%/0.3%& -0.1%0.3% -0.3%/0.2% 12/09/16 09:00 Danmark CPI EU Harmonized MoM/YoY Aug -0.1%/0.4% -0.2%/0.2% -0.1%/0.1% -0.4%/0.0% 12/09/16 14:05 USA Fed's Lockhart, Kashkari and Brainard Speaks 13/09/16 04:00 Kina Industrial Production YoY Aug 6.2% 6.3% 6.0% 6.3% 13/09/16 04:00 Kina Retail Sales YoY Aug 10.2% % 10.6% 13/09/16 04:00 Kina Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY Aug 7.9% 7.8% 8.1% 8.1% 13/09/16 08:00 Tyskland CPI MoM/YoY Aug F 0.0%/0.4% %/0.4% 13/09/16 09:30 Sverige CPI MoM/YoY Aug 0.0%/1.2% 0.0%/1.2% 0.1%/1.1% 13/09/16 09:30 Sverige CPI CPIF MoM/YoY Aug -0.1%/1.5% 0.0%/1.5% 0.1%/1.4% 13/09/16 10:30 UK CPI MoM/YoY Aug 0.4%/0.7% %/0.6% 13/09/16 10:30 UK CPI Core YoY Aug 1.4% % 13/09/16 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Current Situation Sep /09/16 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Expectations Sep /09/16 12:00 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism Aug /09/16 09:30 Sverige GDP QoQ/YoY 2Q F 0.3%/3.1% 0.3%/3.1% 0.3%/3.1% 14/09/16 10:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Jul 4.9% % 14/09/16 11:00 EMU Industrial Production MoM/YoY Jul -0.8%/-0.7% -1.0%/' 0.6%/0.4% 14/09/16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 09. Sep % 14/09/16 14:30 USA Import Price Index MoM/YoY Aug -0.1%/-2.2% %/-3.7% 15/09/16 09:30 Sverige Unemployment Rate SA Aug 6.8% 6.8% 7.0% 15/09/16 09:30 Schweiz SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range 15. Sep % -1.25% 15/09/16 09:30 Schweiz SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range 15. Sep % -0.25% 15/09/16 09:30 Schweiz SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate 01/09/ % -0.75% 15/09/16 10:30 UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel MoM/YoY Aug -0.4%/5.4% %/5.9% 15/09/16 11:00 EMU CPI MoM/YoY Aug 0.1%/0.2% 0.1%/0.2% -0.6%/0.2% 15/09/16 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Aug F 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15/09/16 13:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 01/09/ % 0.25% 0.25% 15/09/16 13:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Sep 435b 435b 435b 15/09/16 14:30 USA Retail Sales Advance MoM Aug -0.1% % 15/09/16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 10. Sep k 15/09/16 14:30 USA Retail Sales Control Group MoM Aug 0.4% % 15/09/16 14:30 USA Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Sep /09/16 14:30 USA PPI Final Demand MoM/YoY Aug 0.1%/0.1% %/-0.2% 15/09/16 14:30 USA PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM/YoY Aug 0.1%/1.0% %/0.7% 15/09/16 14:30 USA Empire Manufacturing Sep /09/16 15:15 USA Industrial Production MoM Aug -0.2% % 15/09/16 15:15 USA Manufacturing (SIC) Production MoM Aug -0.3% % 16/09/16 14:30 USA CPI MoM/YoY Aug 0.1%/1.0% %/0.8% 16/09/16 14:30 USA CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM/YoY Aug 0.2%/2.2% %/2.2% 16/09/16 14:30 USA Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY Aug % 16/09/16 16:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Sep P /09/16 EMU EU-27 Leaders Hold Summit to Discuss Brexit in Bratislava Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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