Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community

Transkript

1 ommission of the European Communities (ommissionen for De europceiske Fcellesskaber Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community Diagrammer og kommentarer til den 0konomiske situation i Fcellesskabet Published monthly Manedlig publikation

2 This publication appears monthly. t is intended, by means of graphs and brief commentaries, to proide a continual analysis of the deelopment of the main economic indicators in the Community. Denne publikation udkommer manedligt. Den har til formal ed diagrammer og korte kommentarer at fremlcegge en fortl0bende analyse af de cesentligste konjunkturindikatorers forl0b i Fcellesskabet. n each issue an introductory commentary, deoted to a subject of current or special interest, is always accompanied by the following graphs and notes: A 1 ndustrial production A2 Unemployment A3 Consumer prices A4 Balance of trade The other graphs and notes appear periodically, alternating as follows: En kortfattet kommentar edr0rende et emne af scerlig aktualitet eller interesse efterf0lges i hert nummer altid af nedenncente fire diagrammer og kommentarer: A 1 lndustriproduktion A2 Antal arbejdsl0se A3 Forbrugerpriser A4 Handelsbalance De 0rige diagrammer og kommentarer forekommer kun periodisk som anf0rt: January, April, July, October Januar, april, juli, oktober 81 Exports 82 Trade between member countries 83 Discount rate and callmoney rates 84 Money supply 85 Exchange rates 81 Eksport 82 Handel mellem medlemslandene 83 Diskontosats og pengemarkedsrente 84 Pengeforsyning 85 Vekselkurser February, May, AugustSeptember, Noember Februar, maj, augustseptember, noember C1 mports C1 mport C2 Terms of trade C2 Bytteforhold C3 Wholesale prices C3 Engrospriser C4 Retail sales C4 Detailomscetning C5 Wages C5 L0nninger March, June, AugustSeptember, December Marts, juni, augustseptember, december D1 Output in the metal products industries D1 Produktion i metalindustri D2 Dwellings authorized D2 Boliger hortil der er giet byggetilladelse D3 Tax reenue D3 Skattei ndtcegter D4 Share prices D4 Aktiekurser D5 Longterm interest rates D5 Langfristede rentesatser Results of the monthly business surey carried out among heads of enterprises in the Community are to be found immediately after the graphs and notes. Resultater af den manedlige konjunkturunders0gelse indhentet blandt irksomhedsledelser i Fcellesskabet findes umiddelbart efter diagrammerne og kommentarerne. For obserations on the graphs see last page. Bemcerkninger til diagrammerne findes pa sidste side.

3 Commission of the European Communities DirectorateGeneral for Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate for National Economies and Economic Trends Rue de la Loi 200, 1049 Bruxelles GRAPHS AND NOTES ON THE ECONOMC STUATON N THE COMMUNTY DAGRAMMER OG KOMMENTARER TL DEN 0KONOMSKE STUATON F JELLESSKABET Kommissionen for De europreiske Frellesskaber Generaldirektoratet for 0 konomiske og Finansielle Anliggender Direktoratet for Medlemsstaternes 0konomi og Konjunkturudikling Rue de la Loi 200, 1049 Bruxelles

4 THE WORLD ECONOMY AT THE BEGNNNG OF THE SPRNG The statistics for the opening months of 1977 suggest that world business actiity has regained some igour after the slowdown in the second half of n the United States, industrial production, which had lost momentum for a short time because of the cold spell, began to make progress once again in January. n Canada, industrial production began to expand slowly again in the final months of the year. n Japan, actiity slackened once again in December, but by March this moement had gien way to one of moderate growth. The latest data point to a decline in unemployment, particularly in the United States. United States imports, in terms of olume hae continued to forge ahead since the summer of 1976, an important factor being growing purchases abroad of petroleum products, but for the nonmember industrialized countries taken as a whole, import growth has tended to slow down. Purchases by the OPEC countries hae again made a substantial contribution to the deelopment of world trade, although the pace of their expansion has been a good deal slower than in and There hae been signs of a recoery in the imports of the deeloping countries, but the imports of Statetrading countries hae increased at only a moderate pace. n seeral nonmember industrialized countries, inflation had generally tended to decline during the second half of 1976, but began to rise again early in 1977, particularly in the United States and in Canada. World prices (spot) for commodities other than petroleum, which had marked time between July and October 1976, then began rising again. The upward moement became sharp in February and in early March. But speculation has since eased off and the price moement has tended to calm down. By the end of April, the Economists commodity index, expressed in dollars, was about 37 %up on the figure for Noember 1976 and about 79 %up on that for the middle of The authorities are acting ery cautiously with regard to measures to stimulate actiity, but growth may be expected to gather momentum gradually, in coming months, in the three main industrialized nonmember countries: Japan, Canada and the United States, where official forecasts for 1977 in comparison with the preious year predict growth rates of 5 12%, 3 12% and 5% respectiely. n these countries, the trend of stock moements should cease to inhibit production, priate consumption could well resume or maintain a normal tempo, and some expansion in fixed inestment can be expected. n the other industrialized countries, with the exception of Norway, growth will probably be only moderate in 1977, although in total it should reach rates a little higher than the 2 12% recorded in Despite the prospects for an acceleration during the year, the rate of expansion of gross domestic product, for all the industrialized countries outside the Community taken together, will probably be about 4 Y 2 % in 1977, compared with 5 y 2 % in 1976 and negatie growth of 12% in 1974 and As for the olume ofworld trade, not including Community imports, this aggregate will probably grow by about 8% in 1977, compared with a rate of 9% in 1976, and a decline of 3 12% in Brussels. 29 April DEN NTERNATONALE 0KONOM VED FORARETS BEGYNDELSE At d0mme efter de statistiske oplysninger for de f0rste maneder af 1977 iser de internationale konjunkturer atter tegn pa en is fremgang efter den opbremsning, der ar sat ind i sidste haldel afforrige ar. De forenede Stater begyndte industriproduktionen, der midlertidigt ar gaet tilbage som f0lge afkuldeb0lgen, pa ny at stige frajanuar maned. Canada harman siden de sidste maneder af 1976 iagttaget en beskeden fremgang i industriproduktionen. Japan ble den nye tilbagegang, som satte ind fra december, i marts af10st af en beskeden rekst. For 0rigt iser de seneste tal undertiden nedgang i ledigheden, nanlig i De forenede Stater. Sel om De forenede Staters k0b fortsat er steget kraftigt siden sommeren 1976, nanlig pa grund af oksende import af olieprodukter, bemrerkes det, at der i aile de industrilande, som ikke er medlemmer af Frellesskabet, har reret tendens til afdrempning af importstigningen. OPEClandenes k0b har endnu en gang ydet et betydeligt bidrag til udiklingen i erdenshandelen, sel om stigningen ar klart langsommere end i 1974 og Endelig har udiklingslandenes import udist isse tegn pa opsing, medens statshandelslandenes import kun er steget moderat. flere industrialiserede tredjelande iste inflationstakten efter den almindelige nedgang i sidste haldel af forrige ar pa ny tendens til stigning i begyndelsen af 1977, nanlig ide forenede Stater og Canada. Verdensmarkedsnoteringen pa andre raarer end olie, som ar stabil mellem juli og oktober 1976, beregede sig igen opad. Den stigende ten dens ar me get betydelig i februar og begyndelsen af marts, men oph0rende spekulation medf0rte derefter en is ro. Ved udgangen af april ar»the Economists«raareindeks, udtrykt i dollars, ca. 37,:; h0jere end i begyndelsen af noember 1976 og ca. 79 % h0jere end indeksen medio Pa trods af den tilbageholdenhed, myndighederne udiser i deres aktiitetsfremmende politik, rna deride nrermeste maneder im0deses en grad is tiltagende 0konomisk rekst i de tre st0rste industrialiserede tredjelande: Japan, Canada og De forenede Stater, hor de forentede rekstrater for 1977 sammenholdt med forrige ar andrager forholdsis 512, 312 og 5 %. disse ande skulle lagerberegelser ikke lrengere lregge en dremper pa produktionen, det priate forbrug skulle genfinde eller opretholde et normalt forl0b, og der kan forentes en is udidelse af de faste inesteringer. de andre industrilande med undtagelse af Norge ii den 0konomiske rekst sandsynligis blie moderat i 1977, sel om den alt i alt utilsomt ii rere en smule st0rre end de 2 Y o;, som registreredes i Trods udsigterne til acceleration i arets l0b, ii stigningstakten i bruttonationalproduktet for aile industrilande uden for Frellesskabet andrage ca. 4Y 2 % i 1977 mod 5Y 2 % det foregaende ar og et fald pa 12 % i Bortset fra importen til Frellesskabet ii den mrengdemressige fremgang i erdenshandelen andrage ca. 8 i 1977 sammenlignet med en stigning pa 9 %, i 1976 og et fald pa 3 Y 2 %, i Bruxelles, den 29. april 1977.

5 A NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON 1970 = 140 ndustry as a whole Unadjusted indices CEEGEC Den samlede industri lkke scesonkorrigerede tal 120 Capital goods Adjusted indices CEEGEC Kapitalgoder Scesonkorrigerede tal Consumer goods Adjusted indices F orbrugsgoder Scesonkorrigerede tal Adjusted indices Scesonkorrigerede tal 140,, CEEGEC ntermediate goods Adjusted indices Halfabrikata Scesonkorrigerede tal CEEGEC M A M A 0 D M A M A 0 D At the end of the winter months, economic actiity in the Community lacked igour. Although the general tendency is still upwards, expansionary factors hae weakened, particularly in taly and the Federal Republic of Germany. Howeer, the German statistics may hae oerstated the tendency towards a slowdown, as the basis for the index of industrial production has been widened. The results of the business sureys in industry suggest that, oerall, the rate of utilization of plant capacity is little changed from the figure of approximately 79", recorded last autumn. Actiity has once more been most buoyant in the consumer goods industries, tha.flks notably to progress in the motorehicle industry; in the first quarter, howeer, motor ehicle sales were only about 2", up on the same quarter last year, when their leel had admittedly been particularly high. The decline in actiity in the iron and steel industry appears to hae come to a halt in February and March. While German industrialists are taking a rather cautious iew of the prospects for production in the months ahead, expectations hae become slightly more optimistic in other Member States, notably the Benelux countries and reland. Ved interens slutning ar konjunkturerne i F:!!llesskabet s:i!kkede. Sel om de generelt fortsat iste opadgaende tendens, pr:!!gedes deaf en afd:!!mpning ide ekspansie elementer, nanlig i talien og Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland. Tyskland er der imidlertid sket en statistisk oerurdering af opbremsningstendenserne fordi beregningsgrundlaget for industriproduktionsindeksen er bleet udidet. Resultaterne af rundsp0rger hos irksomhedslederne inden for industrien iser for 0rigt, at udnyttelsesgraden for den tekniske produktionskapacitet set under et ikke er :i!ndret ret meget i forhold til de ca. 79 <;;;, der konstateredes sidste efterar. Deter i forbrugsgodeindustrien, at aktiiteten fortsat har :!ret mest stabil, nanlig takket :!re udiklingen inden for bilproduktion; i f0rste kartal ar afs:!tningen af biler dog kun ca. 2 "fo h0jere end de ganske ist srerdeles h0je resultater et ar tidligere. Endidere er for:!rringen for stalproduktionen ikke fortsat i februar og marts. Had angar udsigterne for produktionsudiklingen i de kommende maneder, star den mere forsigtige urdering hos de tyske irksomhedsledere i kontrast til en beskeden fornyet optimisme ide andre medlemsstater, nanlig Beneluxlandene og rland.

6 NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON A Adjusted indices Semi Log. scale 1970 = Saesonkorrigerede tal Semi log. skala 160 T Danmark, ltalia f 150 Belgique Belgie Luxembourg United Kingdom _,.;;:. =a.. \ 1\..;... k,., """".\ " f,,......,\,., ""._,...,!"\""""" rr, \ 1,11 \. "", r\ \ ( \ f.t \!"\ Adjusted indices Semi Log. scale Saesonkorrigerede tal Semi log skala 160 T 1974 T BR Deutsc hland 150 f reland France Nederland _J> _, M:;.,.!::::::.... r ;... _, _l_. " 1 k. """"" J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAM J JASON OJ FMAMJ J ASOND

7 A2 UNEMPLOYMENT (thousands) ANTAL ARBEJDSL0SE (i tusinde) 2500 Semi Log. scale Semi log skala ).. _...:.,P"",..,....., _ = ?? ",,... ; f L,...,...,..,.,!...,;.....,..,...,., ,..,.,..,_, """,... ""\ 1\..=.::...:. ::::.. 1 Dan mark BR Deutschland France reland ltalia Min. Laoro { Nederland STAT BelgiqueBelgie United Kingdom l 1 l 1 J FMAM J J AS OND J FMA MJ J AS ONDJ FMA MJ J ASOND J FMA MJ J ASOND The number ofwholly unemployed in the Community(seasonally adjusted) rose a little in March. n fact, the situation deteriorated somewhat in France, Denmark, Belgium and taly. n the other Member States, the slight improement noticed in the preceding months was interrupted. The rate of unemployment in the Community as a whole remained at the July 1976 leel of 4.6 ). Trends in job acancies, adjusted for seasonal ariation, hae aried appreciably from one country to another. The same is true of the ratio between the seasonally adjusted number of unfilled acancies and that of the wholly unemployed, which, in March, ranged from around :4 in the Federal Republic of Germany and the Netherlands to : 10 in France and the United Kingdom. Various Member States hae announced or are planning fresh measures to combat unemployment; the new programme announced by the French Goernment on 26 April features a number of measures to assist those worst affected. Det resonkorrigerede antal fuldtidsarbejdsl0se i Frellesskabet steg lidt i marts. Der har faktisk reret en is forre rring i Frankrig, Da nmark, Belgien og talien. de andre medlem tater, oph0rte den beskedne forbedring som sporedes i de foregaende ma neder. Arbejdsl0shedsprocenten for Frellesskabet under et har dog siden juli 1976 li gget omkring 4,6 o o (). Udbuddet af ledige stil linger korrigeret for sresonudsing har udiklet ig ret forskelligt i de forskellige ande. Det samme grelder for forholdet mellem antallet a f udbudte Stillinge r, om ikke ha r kunnet besrettes, og antallet affuldtidsarbejdsl0se ma lt i sresonkorrigerede tal : i marts ar yderpunkterne ca. :4 i Forbundsrepublikken T yskland og Nederla ndene, : 0 i Frankrig og Det forenede Kongerige. Flere medlemsstater har bebudet eller oerejer nye foranstaltninger til bekre mpel e af a rbej dsl0sheden ; i Frank rig indf0 res med det nye regeringsprogram af 26. april 1977 bl.a. en rrekke foranstaltninger til fordel for de ha rdest ramte grupper. ) Seasonally adjusted number of wholly unemployed: the figures for taly are ST AT. () Sresonkorrigeret an tal fuldtidsarbejdsl0se; for ta lien stammer tallene fra STA T.

8 CONSUMER PRCES Danmark BR Deutschland Nederland Belgique Belgie Luxembourg r 1, :.:,."".,.,... _.,.,... """.. ", S = FORBRUGERPRSER 1 T1977l Monthly ariations in % Manedlig rendring i % A CE EG EC France reland # ltalia United Kingdom!A 7.,.,..... _,... ; " [7 J V""" _,.,..., c..,.._, J FMAMJ J ASO ND J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAM J JASOND The upward moement of consumer prices in the Community as a whole has gradually slackened following the sharp rise in January. n March, the annual rate of increase was some 10 compared with February and about 13 compared with December. The differences between Member States remain substantial. Thus, the slight increase in the Federal Republic of Germany and in the BelgoLuxembourg Economic Union, contrast with the rapid increases in taly and the United Kingdom, where inflationary factors remain ery strong. The acceleration experienced in France and Denmark between February and March is attributable mainly to the end of the price freeze. Generally speaking, the continued upsurge is due in particular to the higher prices of some foodstuffs such as coffee and tea and of goods manufactured by the clothing industry. By contrast, the inflationary impact of heaier indirect taxation and increases in administered prices has weakened. n Belgium, the effect of the increase, from 1 April, in alue added tax on certain goods and serices hae been offset by a decline in the prices of fruit and egetables. Frellesskabet under et drempedes stigningen i forbrugerpriserne gradis efter den kraftig opadgaende tendens i januar. marts androg den pa arsbasis ca. 0 % i forhold til februar og ca. 13 % i forhold til december. Der er stadig betydelige forskelle i udiklingen. Den beskedne stigning, som registreredes i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland ogden belgiskluxembourgske 0konomiske Union star saledes i kontrast til den kraftige stigning i talien og Det forenede Kongerige, hor inflationsfaktorerne stadig er fremherskende. Den acceleration, der noteres i Frankrig og Danmark mellem februar og marts, skyldes i f0rste rrekke ophreuelsen af prisstoppet. Generelt kan det siges, at de edarende meget strerke stigninger hoedsagelig skyldes fordyringen afisse f0dearer, f.eks. kaffe og te, og beklredningsgenstande. Til gengreld er den inflationrere irkning af h0jere indirekte beska tning og forh0jelsen af regulerede priser srekket. Belgien er irkningen af den momsforh0jelse, der gennemf0rtes for en rrekke arer og tjenesteydelser fra 1. april, bleet modsaret af et fald i priserne pa frugt og gr0nsager.

9 A4 BALANCE OF TRADE HANDELSBALANCE Mio Eur l 1975 l D,anmark r BR Deutschland Nederland UEBL " \,.,.,. \. \ t...j r ; " "V" + 600,..._ l"" "\.::::: 0 roo...., :....,..., , r.. z :... r... " " _,. ra \ V j V \!ll....,. K" VJ\; K P""" "" \\. u \\, r\ : CE EG C..!.... France...,_ \ J "" : t reland ltalia United Kingdom 2000 t J J F M AM J J A S 0 N 0 J F M AM J J AS 0 N OJ F M AM J J AS 0 N D J F M AM J J AS 0 N 0 Towards the end of last year, the Communitys trade deficit reached a record leel, slightly exceeding the substantial deficit caused by the energy crisis in the summer of This trend began to be reersed in the early months of this year. The trade balances of seeral Member States running a deficit improed during the first quarter despite the continuing rise in commodity prices. The restraining effects of the stabilization measures on economic actiity hae generally led to a slower growth in import olume, while exports maintained their expansion. The improement noted for some months in Denmark and France continued in M a rch : the trade deficit in France was down to about half the leel reached last autumn. n the United Kingdom, the recoery under way since Noember was halted in March, probably due to fortuitous factors. n taly, the nonoil trade account probably showed a similar surplus in March to that recorded in the preceding months. n reland, expectations as to the forthcoming farm price reiew caused some disruption of trade. The tendency for the German trade surplus to shrink gae way to an increase in March. Ved sidste a rs udgang naede underskuddet pa Fllesskabet s handelsbalance rekordh0jde. Det ar endog en smule st0rre end det betydelige underskud, som ar frembragt af ener&ikrisen i 974. Denne tendens begyndte at ende sig ide f0rste maneder af inderende ar. Handelsbalancen i flere medlemsstater med underskud forbedredes i f0rste kartal til trods for de stadig stigende raarepriser. D en mere moderate aktiitetsudikling som f0lge af stabiliseringsbestrbe l serne, har generelt betragtet f0rt til en begrnsning i den mngdemssige importfremgang, medens eksporten fortsat er 0get. Den tendens til forbedring, der i nogle maneder har kunnet obsereres i Danmark og Frankrig, ble bekrftet i marts : i Frankrig er handelsunderskuddet bleet nedbragt til ca. haldelen af, had det ar sidste efterar. Det foren.ede K ongerige standsedes i marts den fremgang, der hade fundet sted siden noember, tilsyneladende hoedsagelig pa grund afuheldige sammentrf. ltalien udiser handelsbalancen uden olieprodukter sandsynligis i marts et oerskud af samme st0rrelse som de foregaende maneder. lrland medf0rte forentningerne om tilpasninger af andbrugspriserne isse forstyrrelser i handelssamkemmet. Endidere er tendensen til nedbringelse af oerskuddet i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland endt i marts.

10 EXPORTS to nonmember countries Semilog. scale 1 1 l 1974 CE EG EC Danmark BR Deutschland France reland ltalia Nederland UEBL United Kingdom Mio Eur EKSPORT til ikkemedlemslande Semi log. skala !... Bl _.... _..._ l..".....,_._,..,., _, r == =,, _,.,_ J... r """ """...,....,, _..,... r V...,.,, ""... "_ r_ : 20 J FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N OJ FM AM J J S 0 N 0 Measured in Eur, Community exports to nonmember countries hae risen in the first quarter of 1977 by almost 8% (on an annual basis), the rate also recorded in the fourth quarter of Generally speaking, sales to industrialized nonmember countries hae been growing fastest, while delieries to the oilexporting countries and to the other deeloping countries hae made only minor gains. The only exception to this trend has been the United Kingdom, where, measured in terms of total British exports, delieries to the OPEC countries and to Statetrading countries expanded at a disproportionately rapid rate in the first three months of the year. French exports hae continued to climb rapidly under the impact of the boom in sales recorded since the beginning of the year by the consumer goods industries and, more particularly, by the motor ehicle industry. n the Federal Republic of Germany, exports appear to hae slackened in spite of the steady expansion in delieries of plant and machinery. f0rste kartall977 ser det ud til at rekstraten for Frellesskabets eksport til tredjelande i sresonkorrigerede tal udtrykt i EUR Hi tret op ad de 8 o;;; (pa <hsbasis), der registreredes i fjerde kartal sidste ar. Gerierelt er det salget til industrialiserede tredjelande, som har haft den strerkeste stigning, medens leerancerne til de olieeksporterende ande og de andre udiklingslande kun er steget i beskedent omfang. Den eneste undtagelse fra denne tendens er Det forenede Kongerige, hor stigningen i leerancerne til OPEClandene ligesom for 0rigt til st;;ttshandelslandene i forhold til den samlede britiske eksport fortsat har reret kendetegnet afhastig rekst under indf1ydelse af den kraftige stigning i salget. man har kunnet obserere siden arets begyndelse inden for forbrugsgodeindustrien og nanlig inden for bilbranchen. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland ser stigningen i eksporten ud til at rere aftaget til trods for den fortsatte rekst i leerancerne af inesteringsgoder.

11 82 TRADE BETWEEN MEMBER COUNTRES HANDEL MELLEM MEDLEMSLANDENE Semi log. scale T r r r CE EG EC Oanmark BR Deutschland France reland ltalia Nederland UEBL United Kingdom L L Basis : imports Mio Eur = "". :;;:.....,._. Basis: import Semi log. skala ,.. """"" 1500 """!" 1, 0 ; ,,...,... f. _ ,..., :.. J,,F M A M J J A S 0 N D J r,.,... F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N, D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D 1 L n the fourth quarter of 1976, trade between member countries. had, on a seasonally adjusted basis and measured in Eur, expanded sharply, to record an annual rate of some 24. The rate of growth would appear to hae slowed down in early Trade between the Federal Republic of Germany and its Community partners has remained relatiely stable. n France. the expansion in imports from the other Member States, which had been ery brisk in the fourth quarter of 1976, has since lost some momentum, although there was a renewed acceleration in March. Trade between taly and the other Member States was expanding igorously in the closing months of 1976, particularly in respect of imports, but slackened in January ; although the trade balance has improed. The United Kingdoms trade deficit with the other Member States a lso showed an improement in the first quarter of 1977 ; its purchases from third countries, particularly North America, hae risen at a more rapid rate than its imports from the other Member States. Den interne frellesskahshande1 iste i fjerde kartal sidste ar i sresonkorrigerede tal udtrykt i EUR kraftig fremgang pa nresten 24 % pa arsbasis. Stigningen ser ud til at hae reret mere afdrempet i begyndelsen af Forbundsrepublikken Tysklands handelssamkem med sine partnere i Frellesskabet er fortsat relati konstant. Frankrig er reksten i importen fra de andre medlemsstater, som ar meget kraftig i fjerde kartall976, siden taget af; men tempoet 0gedes igen i marts. talien efterfulgtes den udidelse af handelssamkemmet med Frellesskabet, som ar meget betydelig de sidste maneder forrige armed en klar import = oerregt, a f en tilbagegang i ja nuar ; men saldoen er forbedret. Det forenede Kongerige forbedredes den negatie sa1do for handelen med de a ndre medlemsstater li geledes i f0rste kartal 1977 : landets k0 b i tredjelande, og specielt i Nordamerika, steg endnu mere end importen fra Frellesskabets ande.

12 DSCOUNT RATE AND CALL MONEY RATES DSKONTOSATS OG PENGEMARKEDSRENTE r;++rrrrr rrri.n _,.:, :J YJ.: _ #: :: :.. 7 = :b+r+r7++r M.. 11;. 4 BR Deutschland France reland Untted Ktngdom 3.. l :.. = = :.: 2 f J L_L L_L===PL L_ l. 11,,,...T..r.,,... i.. 9 f.r....,r+.,..._++l i:l...,... _t. l 8 : :====::::: l.. H... l 5:: :, ir = 10 r.. :t :f...,.. l : : 1. L 4 44 r+44 2 Danmark t alia.... Nederland 1 BelgiqueBelgte 0 J F M A M J J A s 0 N D J F M A M J J A s 0 1 N D l J F M A M J J A s 0 N D J F M A M J J A s 0 N D The ea ier conditions that had become a feature of money markets in the Community hae persisted into the Spring. As a result of lower central bank discount rates, among other things. shortterm interest rates hae fallen in all Member States. Since February, the official discount rate has been lowered in the Netherlands, the BelgoLuxembourg Economic Union. Denmark, reland and, on seeral occasions, the United Kingdom. where, by the end of April, the minimum lending rate had been cut to 8.25%, its lowest rate for almost four years. To stem the decline of interest rates. the Bank of England suspended, from the beginning of February, the mechanism whereby the minimum lending rate is adjusted almost automatically in line with changes in the rate for Treasury bills. The German Bundesbank raised the banks rediscount quotas in early March. n spite of the more relaxed atmosphere on foreign exchange market. interest rates hae not fallen back to their relatiely low leel of early 1976; in February 1977, the aerage call money rate in the Community was running at 7.7, 0 as against 6. 5 a year earlier. Taking the monthly aerage, call money rates at present range from just oer 4 in the Federal Republic of Germany to almost 16 in taly; the dispersion of rates is therefore wider than a year ago. Den afmatning, som indtraf pa Frellesskabets pengemarkeder, fortsatte i forarsmanederne. Nanlig takket rere en nedsrettelse af bankernes omkostninger ed refinansiering hos centralbankerne, faldt den korte rente i aile medlemsstaterne. Siden februar er diskontoen bleet srenket i Nederlandene, Den belgiskluxembourgske 0konomiske Union, Danmark, rland og ed flere lejligheder i Det forenede Kongerige. Ved udgangen af april ar»minimum lending rate«faldet til 8,25 %, hilket er det laeste nieau i nresten fire ar. For at bremse faldet i rentenieauet, suspenderede Bank of England fra begyndelsen af februar til midt i marts den nresten automatiske justering af»minimum lending rate«til skatkammerbeisernes rente. begyndelsen af marts hreede for 0rigt Den tyske Forbundsbank bankernes rediskonteringskoter. Til trods for afmatningen pa alutamarkederne faldt rentesatserne ikke tilbage til det forholdsis lae nieau, de a pa i begyndelsen af 1976 ; i februar 1977 ar den gennemsnitlige dagtildag rente i Frellesskabet 7,7 % mod 6,5 % aret f0r. Tytanedsgennemsnittet for dagtildag renten arierer i 0jeblikket mellem lidt oer 4 % i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland og nre ten 16 % i talien ; spredningen i rentesatserne er saledes st0rre end for et ar siden.

13 84 MONEY SUPPLY (annual change) PENGEFORSYNNG (arlig rendring) % i4 Danmark BR Deutschland France BelgiqueBelgie = t... d...,._ f 7, )..., ,,,, L rr! >c 1 29, \ l\ \ \ \ reland ltalia Nederland United Kingdom JFMAMJJASOND JF MAMJJA SOND JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOND n irtually all the Community countries, the expansion of the money supply has again slackened. taly is the only Member State where the latest annual rates reported, those for December, still exceeded 20 %. Moreoer, except for reland, where the annual rate of expansion was just oer 10%, the money supply as depicted in the graph aboe (notes and coin in ci rculation plus sight deposits) is, in the early months of 1977, growing at less than 10% in the rest of the Community. Since the money supply including nearmoney is expanding at the same rate in a ll countries with the exception of taly and, owing to special factors, the Netherlands, one may reasonably infer that the deelopment of this aggregate is now making a better contribution to the achieement of balanced economic growth, arying less from country to country. The slowdown in liquidity expansion can, generally speaking, be put down to slacker demand for credit on the part of both the public authorities and the priate sector. By contrast, in the Netherlands, where lending to priate indiiduals has risen sharply, the central bank imposed in March a quantitatie ceiling on bank lending to the priate sector (12% for 1977). n taly, the credit restrictions which were introduced last October and which were to be discontinued at the end of March hae been extended; the maximum permissible growth in lending between now and the end of March 1978 has been set at 25 %. This ceiling is intended, among other things, to make it easier to carry out the undertakings entered into in connection with the loans granted by the nternational Monetary Fund and by the Community. 1resten aile Frellesskabets ande er udidelsen af pengemrengen pa ny aftaget mrerkbart. Ttalien er den eneste medlemsstat, hor de seneste tal fra december fortsat Jigger oer 20 % pa arsbasis. His man ser bort fra Trland, hor den arlige rekstrate er en smule oer 0 %. udiser pengeforsyningen, som den fremgar af oenstaende figur (seddeloml0b og indian pa anfordring) i de f0rste maneder af 977 udelukkende encifrede rekstrater. Da udiklingen i pengeforsyningen, herunder quasipengemrengden, oeralt forl0ber i samme tempo undtagen i talien og pa grund af srerlige forhold ogsa i Nederlandene kan man slutte, at den nu bedre er i stand ti l at bidrage til gennemf0relsen af en afbalanceret og mindre differentieret 0konomisk rekst. Opbremsningen i likiditetsudidelsen skyldes almindeligis en afdrempet krediteftersp0rgsel bade fra den offentlige og den priate sektor. Nederlandene derimod, hor ydelsen afkredit til priatpersoner er 0get kraftigt, indf0rte centralbanken i marts en kantitatibegrrensnin)l i bankkreditten til den priate sek tor (12 0 for 1977). talien er de kreditrestriktioner, der indf0rtes i oktober sidste ar, og som skulle ophrees ed udgangen afmarts, bleet forlrenget; den maksimale tilladte fomgelse indtil udgangen af marts 1978 er fastsat til 25 % Denne begrrensning skal bl.a. g0re det Jettere at oerholde de forpligtelser, der er indgaet til gengreld for lanene fra Den internationale Valutafond og Frellesskabet.

14 EXCHANGE RATES (weighted change in % since 1st Quarter 1972) VEKSELKURSER (ejet rendring i % i forhold til 1. kartal 1972) l1977l r _.....J?,_,._.,.,.,... i""" r.... """ f..., r,.... """ r r..,... _ " "".. " ", "" \...,......,.. \,., Dan mark BR Deutschland France reland ltalia Nederland UEBL BLEU United Kingdom 70 j l J,F M AM J J A S 0 N 0 J F M AM J J A S 0 N 0 J F M AM J J A S 0 N 0 J F M AM J J A S 0 N 0 Generally speaking, conditions hae become somewhat more ettled on the Community exchanges in the first four months of the year. Howeer, on 2 April. i.e. six months after the preious general parity readjustment, a fresh realignment unexpectedly took place within the "snake". The Danish krone and Norwegian krone were dealued by 3 o and the Swedish krone by 6 <,. Since then, the Mark has been the weakest currency in the Community exchange rate scheme, with the three dealued currencies and the Dutch guilder for which the Dutch Central Bank interened appreciably at the end of April, representing the upper limit. The three Community currencies not subject to interention requirements, namely sterling, the lira and the French franc, hae moed closely in line with the dollar. Like the latter, they suffered a slight, temporary decline in alue in terms of"snake" currencies in April. The United Kingdom monetary authorities hae been able to build up substantially their foreign exchange reseres not only through borrowing abroad but also and primarily as a result of heay purchases of foreign currency on the exchange markets. n taly, following the abolition, within the deadline set, of the tax and deposit introduced for foreign currency purchases, the loans granted in April by the nternational Monetary Fund and by the Community together with the economic policy undertakings entered into in thi connection make for a more optimistic assessment of the prospects for the lira. Udiklingen i alutakurserne har i arets f0rste fire maneder generelt reret prreget af en is ro. Den 2. april. ds. et halt ar efter den sidste generelle tilpasning af pariteterne. fandt der imidlertid uentet en ny justering sted inden for»slangen«. Den danske krone ble ligesom den norske krone dealueret med 3 o o ogden senske krone med 6 {,. Siden da har marken reret den sageste al uta inden for Frellesskabets alutasystem, medens de tre dealuerede alutaer samt den nederlandske gylden. som i slutningen af april ar genstand for omfattende interention fra den hollandske central banks side.ligger nrer den 0re grrense. De tre frellesskabsalutaer, om ikke er underkastet interentionsforpligtelse, ds. pundet, liren og den franske franc, fulgte n0je dollarkursen. Ligesom denne ar de i april midlertidigt sagt igende oer for»slangen«. De britiske pengepolitiske myndigheder har reret i stand til at 0ge deres alutareserer betydeligt, ikke alene takket rere kreditoptagn]ng i udlandet, men nanlig ed hjrelp af store alutaopk0b pa alutamarkedet. Efter at afgiften og deponeringsordningen for k0b afaluta i Jtalien ble ophreet inden for den fa tsatte frist ii de kreditter, som Den intcrnationale Valutafond og Frelles kabet ydede i april, samt de hermed forbundne 0konomiskpolitiske forpligtelser. tillas.je en me re optimisti k urdering af perspektierne for udiklingen i den italienske aluta_

15 RESULTS OF THE BUSNESS SURVEY 1 ) OF COMMUNTY NDUSTRY RESULTATER AF KONJUNKTURUNDERS0GELSEN 1 ) NDUSTRSEKTOREN FA:LLESSKABET + 30 %of answers % at sar Total orderbooks Bedommelse af den samlede ordrebeholdning r\ \ r "" 0\ ",\\ \ CE EG EC :J B R Deutschland France 60 r ltalla reland Nederland eitqtb 70 1 elg ij :t 1 \ \ " \ \ \ \...,... z :\ _L t"". :...J \.. r.,.,...,.,;;;: A ""\\.. 11 ""... _ ;,.iii 7 """""" """" J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ JASONOJ FMAMJ J ASOND %of answers %at sar Assessment of stocks of finished goods Bedommelse af frerdigarelagre J FMAMJ J A SONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND 1 ) Excluding construction, food, beerages and tobacco. 1 ) Eksklusie bygge og anlcrgsirksomhed, ncrrings og nydelsesmiddelindustri.

16 Expectations : production Produktionsforentninger + 40 % of answ ers %at sar CE EG EC France 30 reland ltalia Nederland 40 Graphs 1 and 11 show businessmens ew of their rota orderhooks and their stocks of finished goods, presented as threemonth moing aerages of the aifference between the percentage of those who find them "aboe normal" ( + ) and the percentage of those who find them "below norrrjal" (). Graph shows threemonth moing aerages of the difference (as percentage of replies) between the number of businessmen who expected production to be up ( +) and those who expected it to be down (). The table below shows businessmen s assessments of their total orderbooks, foreign orderbooks and stocks of finished goods during the last three months, ( +) being aboe normal, ( = ) being normal, () being below normal. t also shows whether, they expect the following three or four months to bring an increase ( +), no change ( = ) or decrease () in their production and in their selling prices. Diagrammerne og gengier tre milneders glidende gennemsnir al forskelscerdien mellem irksomhedsledernes sar»srorre«( t ) og»mindre«() edr@rende ordrebestand og fcerdigareagre. Diagram iser ligeledes i form af tre milneders glidende gennemsnit forskelscerdien ( procent af sarene) melem irksomhedsledernes forentninger til en»for@gelse«( + ) eller en»formindskelse«( ) af produktionen. Nedenstilende tabel gengier for de seneste tre milneder irksomhedsledernes bed Jmmelse af, om de samlede ordrebeholdninger, udlandsordrer og fcerdigarelagre ar forholdsis store ( +), nor male ( =) eller forholdsis smil ( ). Desuden er irksomhedsledernes forentninger om oksende ( + ), nogenlunde ucendrede ( =) eller aftagende ( ) produktion og sagspriser i de folgende tre eller fire maneder anfort. BR France reland Deutschland J F M J F M J F M Total orderbooks = Den samlede ordre beholdning Export orderbooks = Den udenlandske ordrebeholdning Stocks of finished goods = Frerdigarelagre Expectations: producti?n = Produktionsforentningerne Expectations: selling prices = Salgsprisforentninger llalia cdcrland Belgique Luxem United EC Belgie bourg Kmgdom rt J F M J M J F M J F M J F M J F M X

17 Obserations on the Graphs Bemrerkninger til diagrammerne A ndustrial Production: ndices of EU ROST AT (excluding construction). For the seasonally adjusted series, threemonth moing aerage. Community: estimates. France: curefor recent months may be partly based on estimates. reland and Denmark: quarterly indices. A lndustriproduktion: index EU ROST AT ( excl. bygge og anlagsirksomhed). Sasonkorrigerede index fremtrader som tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit. Fallesskabet: skon. Frankrig: kure kan for de seneste mdneder are baseret pa skon. rland og Danmark: kartalsindex. A 2 Unemployment: Three month moing aerage of the seasonally adjusted EU ROST AT series. Number of persons registered at Employment Offices. taly: dotted graph related to the quarterly series published by ST AT on the basis of its sureys. A 2 Antal arbejdslose: Tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit a{sasonkorrigerede talfra EU ROST AT. Antal ledige personer, registreret pa arbejdsanisningskontorer. talien: den punkterede kure sarer til de af 1ST AT udarbejdede kartalstal baseret pd rundsporger. A 3 Consumer prices: ndices of EU ROST AT. Community: estimates. A 3 Forbrugerpriser: ndeks EU ROST AT. Fallesskabet: skon. A 4 Trade balance: ncluding intracommunity trade. Three month moring a1 erages. Calculated on the basis of the seasonally adjusted EU ROST A Tseriesfor exports and imports; exportsfo.b. ; imports c.if; excluding monetary gold. Cures for recent months may be based on estimates. Community: trade with nonmember countries only. Belgium and Luxembourg: common cure. A 4 Handelsbalance: nklusie handel inden for Fallesskabet. Tre maneders g!idende gennemsnit. Beregnet pd grundlag a{ tal.fra EU ROST ATfor import og eksport sasonkorrigeret. Eksportfo.b. import c.if, eksklusie monetart guld. Kurer kanfor de seneste maneder are baseret pa skon. Fallesskabet: handel med ikke medlemslande. Belgien og Luxembourg :fales kure. B Exports: Seasonally adjusted alues in Eur proided by EU ROST AT. Threemonth moing aerages. Cures for recent months may be partly based on estimates. Belgium and Luxembourg: common cure. B 1 Eksport: Sasonkorrigerede ardier i Eur udfardiget i EUROSTAT. Tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit. Kurer kan for de seneste mdneder (fre deis baseret pd skon. Belgien og Luxembourg :fa lies kure. B 2 Trade between member countries: Seasonally adjusted alues in Eur proided by EUROST AT. Threemonth moing aerages. Cures for recent months may be partly based on estimates. Belgium and Luxembourg: common cure. B 2 Handel mellem medlemsstaterne: Sasonkorrigerede ardier i Eur udfardiget i EUROSTAT. Tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit. Kurer kan for de seneste mdneder wrre deis baseret pd skon. Belgien og Luxembourg: falles kure. B 3 Discount rate and call money rates: Unbroken line shows official discount rate. Dotted line shows monthly aerage of the rates for call money. n Denmark rates for call money are not published. B 3 Diskontosats og pengemarkedsrente: Ubrudt kure iser diskontosats. Punkteret kure iser mdnedligt gennemsnit af pengemarkedsrenten. Danmark er pengemarkedsrenten ikke offentliggjort. B 4 Money supply: Notes and coin in circulation and sight deposits ( excl. interbank deposits). Threemonth moing aerage of percentage change on same month of preceding year, calculated from data of EUROSTAT. B 4 Pengeforsyning: Seddel og montomlob og indskud pd anfordring. Endring i forhold til tilsarende maned foregdende dr. Tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit, beregnet pa grundlag af tal fra EUROSTAT. B 5 Exchange rates: Reference period: aerage at first quarter 1972; weighting according to structure of expor.t.. B 5 Vekselkurser: i forhold til gennemsnittet af. kartal 972; ejet i oeremstemmelse med eksportsammensf tningen. 1 Eur (Marchmarts 1977) 3, , ,6572 7,89407 DM F1 FbF1ux Dkr 6, ,000 0,776 Ffr Lit