Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 6. juni 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens vigtigste begivenhed er nok Fed-chef Janet Yellens tale i aften. Det er nok sidste chance for Fed at påvirke markedets forventning til udfaldet af rentemødet i næste uge. I talen i forrige uge anså hun en renteforhøjelse på et af de kommende par rentemøder (juni, juli) som passende. Mon ikke Yellen er blevet i tvivl og om en sommer-renteforhøjelse er en god idé efter fredagens miserable arbejdsmarkedsrapport og derfor trækker i land på sine tidligere udmeldelser. I dag kommer også det økonomiske Sentix-barometer for euroområdet for juni. Her ventes en ny lille stigning, og dermed er indekset godt nok steget i tre måneder i streg, men det har ikke løftet værdien langt væk fra bunden som blev nået efter kraftige fald i årets tre første måneder. Barometeret, som er baseret på investorernes syn på økonomien, ventes især at hente inspiration fra en lille stigning på aktiemarkeder siden sidste måling i maj. På den anden side er rentekurven blevet en smule fladere, hvilket tilsiger at stigningen ikke bliver særlig stor. Med juni-værdien af Sentix peger barometeret på lavere BNP-vækst i euroområdet i 2. kvartal (se figur), om end barometeret historisk ikke altid har fungeret godt til at forudsige udviklingen i BNP. I morgen tidlig offentliggør Kina tal for valutareserven. Efter en stabilisering af valutaudstrømningen de seneste måneder ventes et fald i valutareserven i maj på omkring USD 20 mia. Faldet skyldes dog formentlig primært, at aktiver i reserven, som er denomineret i anden valuta end USD, er faldet i værdi opgjort i USD i takt med den generelle USD-styrkelse gennem maj. Samtidig har CNY imidlertid fået lov til at svækkes over for USD gennem maj, og det har nok genoplivet frygten for en mere markant CNY-devaluering og dermed lagt yderligere svækkelsespres på CNY. Resten af ugen er det temmelig småt med vigtige økonomiske begivenheder fra både USA og euroområdet. Et af de få interessante nøgletal bliver JOLTrapporten onsdag om tilstanden på det amerikanske arbejdsmarked. Der kommer industriproduktionstal for en række lande, herunder fra Danmark tirsdag. Der kommer dansk betalingsbalance torsdag og inflation fredag. EUR: Vækstmoderation forude Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Fredagens miserable arbejdsmarkedsrapport fra USA skabte store markedsbevægelser. Der skete en massiv nedjustering af forventningerne til en snarlig renteforhøjelse fra Fed, som sendte renterne i frit fald og svækkede USD markant. Også aktiemarkederne faldt på grund af det svage vækstsignal, og de europæiske markeder lukkede med tydelige fald. De amerikanske aktiemarkeder rettede sig lidt efter europæisk lukketid, så faldene her var mindre, måske fordi investorerne trods alt kan se noget positivt i udsigten til at Fed måske alligevel ikke hæver USA: Beskæftigelsen i USA steg med sølle personer i maj, hvilket var langt under forventningerne - selv når man tager højde for de ca strejkende i Verizon. Samtidigt blev beskæftigelsesfremgangen i de to foregående måneder nedjusteret med personer. Indtrykket af en trist arbejdsmarkedsrapport forstærkes yderligere af en nedrevidering af den gennemsnitlige ugentlige arbejdstid. Endvidere faldt beskæftigelsen for vikarer, hvilket også ofte er en indikator for begyndende svagheder på arbejdsmarkedet. Ledigheden faldt dog fra 5,0% til bare 4,7%, men af de forkerte årsager. Det skyldtes nemlig primært, at hele personer meldte sig ud af arbejdsstyrken, hvilket var anden måned i træk med stor udstrømning. Det betød også, at deltagelsesgraden faldt igen. Den svage arbejdsmarkedsrapport er bestemt ikke godt nyt for høgene i Fed, der får svært ved at retfærdiggøre renteforhøjelser i en situation, hvor arbejdsmarkedet bremser op. De kan klynge sig lidt til den faldende deltagelsesgrad, som øger stramhedsgraden på arbejdsmarkedet, men hvis der ikke skabes jobs er det nok ikke en risiko der står lige for døren, og udviklingen i timelønningerne er da også fortsat ret moderat. For lige at cementere den dårlige stemning fredag eftermiddag, kom ISM s serviceindeks ud på skuffende 52,9 i maj. Der var kun ventet et lille fald til 55,3 fra 55,7 i april. Euroområdet: Detailomsætningen var uændret i april fra marts. Der var ventet en stigning på 0,4% m/m. Dermed ser den indenlandske efterspørgsel i euroområdet ud til at komme svagt ind i 2. kvartal efter et relativt stærkt 1. kvartal. Storbritannien: Service-PMI kom ind stærkere end ventet på 53,5 i maj op fra 52,3 i april. To forskellige meningsmålinger offentliggjort over weekenden viste begge for første gang flertal i den britiske befolkning for at forlade EU. Afstemningen afholdes d. 23. juni. USA: Trist arbejdsmarkesrapport Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 6. juni 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,61% / indeks 1042,20) endte ugens sidste handelsdag i negativt terræn. Den negative stemning tiltog efter der blev offentliggjort en skuffende jobrapport fra USA, hvor det fremgik at beskæftigelsen i USA steg med bare personer i maj, hvilket var langt under forventningerne. I toppen af det ledende danske indeks endte blandt andet Vestas (+0,21% / kurs 474,10). Den britiske storbank Barclays hævede sit kursmål på vindmølleaktien til 570 kr. (fra tidligere 550 kr.) og fastholdt anbefalingen Overvægt. Banken fremhævede i samme anledning at den ser frem til Vestas kapitalmarkedsdag den 21. juni i London, hvor Vestas muligvis vil lancere nogle langsigtede finansielle målsætninger. I modsatte ende af det ledende danske indeks endte Coloplast (- 2,71% / kurs 485,00). Den norske storbank DNB sænkede sin anbefaling på aktien til Hold (fra tidligere Køb) og sænkede i samme omgang kursmålet til 550 kr. (fra 580 kr.). Renter Der var små fald i obligationsrenterne fredag frem mod den vigtige amerikanske arbejdsmarkedsrapport. Rapporten var langt svagere end ventet, og det satte markant fart i rentefaldene, sådan at både de tyske og danske 10-årige statsrenter faldt med over fire basispunkter. De amerikanske statsrenter faldt endnu mere, da der skete en massiv nedjustering af forventningerne til en snarlig renteforhøjelse fra Fed. Den 10-årige statsrente faldt med omkring 10 basispunkter, det største fald i over et år. Her til morgen er renten steget en anelse. Arbejdsmarkedsrapporten viste, at beskæftigelsen steg med sølle personer i maj, hvilket var langt under forventningerne - selv når man tager højde for de ca strejkende i Verizon. Samtidigt blev beskæftigelsesfremgangen i de to foregående måneder nedjusteret med personer.. Ledigheden faldt dog fra 5,0% til bare 4,7%, men af de forkerte årsager. Det skyldtes nemlig primært, at hele personer meldte sig ud af arbejdsstyrken, hvilket var anden måned i træk med stor udstrømning Valuta Valutamarkederne var relativt rolige fredag og afventende frem mod eftermiddagens amerikanske arbejdsmarkedsrapport, men så kom der fut i løjerne. Rapporten viste, at beskæftigelsen steg med sølle personer i maj, hvilket var langt under forventningerne. Det sendte USD ud i en masiv svækkelse over for de fleste valuater, herunder EUR. GBP er svækket markant her mandag morgen over for stort set alle valutaer efter to forskellige meningsmålinger offentliggjort over weekenden begge for første gang viste flertal i den britiske befolkning for at forlade EU. Afstemningen afholdes d. 23. juni. JPY er her til morgen svækket en anelse over for USD efter den i fredags styrkedes massivt i takt med den generelle USD-svækkelse efter den elendige arbejdsmarkedsrapport. Givet den massive USD-svækkelse i fredags kunne man have forventet en næsten ligeså stor styrkelse af CNY-referenceraten over for USD her til morgen for at den effektive CNY ville blive holdt stabil. Der skete kun en lille styrkelse. SEK styrkedes fredag over for EUR efter overraskende stærke tal for svensk industriproduktion. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 6. juni 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 10/06/16 SAS 2. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 06/06/16 08:00 Tyskland Factory Orders MoM/YoY Apr -0.5%/0.3% %/1.7% 06/06/16 10:10 EMU Markit Eurozone Retail PMI May /06/16 10:30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Jun /06/16 18:30 USA Fed Chair Yellen to Speak in Philadelphia /06/16 07:00 Japan Leading Index CI Apr P /06/16 08:00 Tyskland Industrial Production MoM/YoY Apr 0.7%/0.9% %/0.3% 07/06/16 09:00 Danmark Industrial Production MoM Apr % -2.2% 07/06/16 11:00 EMU GDP QoQ/YoY 1Q F 0.5%/1.5% %/1.5% 07/06/16 14:30 USA Nonfarm Productivity 1Q F -0.6% % 07/06/16 14:30 USA Unit Labor Costs 1Q F 4.0% % 07/06/16 /2016 Kina Foreign Reserves May $3200.0b -- $3219.0b 08/06/16 01:50 Japan BoP Current Account Adjusted Apr b b 08/06/16 01:50 Japan GDP SA QoQ 1Q F 0.5% % 08/06/16 08:30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentiment May /06/16 09:15 Schweiz CPI MoM/YoY May 0.2%/-0.4% %/-0.4% 08/06/16 10:30 UK Industrial Production MoM/YoY Apr 0.0%/-0.4% %/-0.2% 08/06/16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 03. Jun % 08/06/16 16:00 USA JOLTS Job Openings Apr /06/16 /2016 Kina Trade Balance May $55.60b -- $45.56b 09/06/16 01:01 UK RICS House Price Balance May 35.0% % 09/06/16 03:30 Kina CPI YoY May 2.3% % 09/06/16 07:45 Schweiz Unemployment Rate SA May 3.5% % 09/06/16 08:00 Tyskland Trade Balance Apr 22.8b b 09/06/16 09:00 Danmark Current Account Balance Apr b -2.4b 09/06/16 09:00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Apr b 5.6b 09/06/16 09:00 EMU ECB's Draghi Speaks at Economic Forum in Brussels /06/16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 04. Jun k 09/06/16 14:30 USA Continuing Claims 28. May k 09/06/16 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 05. Jun /06/16 16:00 USA Wholesale Inventories MoM Apr 0.1% % 09/06/16 16:00 USA Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Apr 1.3% % 10/06/16 08:00 Tyskland CPI EU Harmonized MoM/YoY May F 0.4%/0.0% %/0.0% 10/06/16 09:00 Danmark CPI MoM/YoY May 0.2%/0.1% 0.1%/0.0% 0.1%/0.0% 10/06/16 09:00 Danmark CPI EU Harmonized MoM/YoY May 0.2%/-0.1% 0.2%/-0.1% 0.2%/-0.3% 10/06/16 09:30 Sverige Average House Prices May m 10/06/16 10:00 Norge CPI MoM/YoY May 0.1%/3.1% %/3.2% 10/06/16 10:00 Norge CPI YoY May 3.1% % 10/06/16 10:00 Norge CPI Underlying MoM/YoY May 0.1%/2.9% -/3.1% 0.4%/3.3% 10/06/16 16:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Jun P /06/16 20:00 USA Monthly Budget Statement May -$60.5b 10/06/16 06/15 Kina Aggregate Financing CNY May 950.0b b 10/06/16 06/15 Kina New Yuan Loans CNY May 750.0b 555.6b Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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