Kommuner og regioner i den globaliserede verden Seminar den 27 August 2013 i København. Det større perspektiv - ønsker, tendenser og nye muligheder?

Transkript

1 Kommuner og regioner i den globaliserede verden Seminar den 27 August 2013 i København Det større perspektiv - ønsker, tendenser og nye muligheder?

2 Hvad er ESPON? EU Program under Strukturfondene : Støtte vidensbaseret politikudvikling omkring regionaludvikling og territoriel samhørighed Etablere ny og sammenlignelig viden på europæisk niveau om regioner og byer, deres udviklingsmuligheder og udfordringer Anvendt forskning og målrettede analyser med ministerier, regioner, kommuner og andre EU programmer Værktøjer og database til brug for analyser og politikudvikling Publikationer og formidling af resultater, støttet af nationale ESPON kontaktpunkter, i Danmark Aalborg Universitet Alle 28 EU medlemsstater og Europakommissionen er med Budgettet er på 47 mill. Euro

3 Præsentation Hovedelementer: Det større perspektiv hvorfor? Benchmarking med ESPON viden og resultater Europæiske udviklingstræk af betydning for Danmark Megatrends - også vigtige for Danmark Konklusioner: Danmark i det større perspektiv

4 Det større perspektiv Hvorfor? Udefrakommende forhold påvirker mere end før, ikke mindst globale markeder og klima Udviklingsmuligheder udenfor eget territorie vokser i betydning Styrker og svagheder må idag også ses i national og international sammenhæng Samarbejde med andre regioner og byer om udvikling, der ellers ikke ville komme, er mere vigtig end før Benchmarking i europæisk, og ofte også i global sammenhæng, er idag en nødvendig ingrediens i en velinformeret planlægning og politikudvikling

5 Absolute variation of the population Growing metropolitan areas in the neighbourhood The pattern of urban growth is increasing the concentration of population in cities around the coastline. These are the places that are closest to, and most easily reached by surface transport, from Europe s southern periphery. Territorial disparities within neighbourhood countries Demographic contrasts are high within the neighbourhood countries. For example, within Turkey there are marked west / east differences, in Algeria the contrasts are between the coast and the inland regions, and in Morocco between the large cities and the rest of country.

6 Impact of migration on the labour force, 2050 Migration trends propel centralisation Overall the trend is towards increased population in more densely populated areas across Europe. Scenarios on the impacts that migration has on regional labour forces in 2050, suggest that larger metropolitan and capital city regions, as well as large parts of Spain and Italy are expected to benefit from migration. The most severe effects on regional labour markets are expected from out migration in large parts of Romania, Cyprus and Bulgaria.

7 GDP change per capita in relation to the EU average, Reducing GDP disparities during Stable regional pattern. The relative position of most regions has not changed much Some Eastern regions have improved during the last decade. These regions are mainly in the former East Germany, Poland and Slovakia. Decline in some Western regions. Some regions in the UK, France, Italy, Ireland and Greece have experienced considerable decline. This relative loss is mostly caused by low to very low growth in absolute terms rather than absolute GDP per capita decline.

8 Regional Employment Rates (labour force), Job situation developed best in the core of Europe Regional labour force developed most favourably in the northern part of the core of Europe Ireland, Iceland and Romania have relatively lost employment Some countries in the Balkans have witnessed strong decline 8

9 Regional labour productivity, 2010 Urbanised regions and Western Europe are best off Areas with high labour productivity are mainly located in capital city regions and metropolitan areas in the European core. Particularly low labour productivity is mainly to be found along the eastern regions in Poland, large parts of Bulgaria and Romania and a number of Turkish regions.

10 Human Resources in Science and Technology 2009 Western and Northern parts of Europe best equipped The strongest regions in Science and Technology human resources in the north western part of Europe The largest cities visible as key places for this segment of the labour force In Turkey, the Ankara region is the strongest player 10

11 Territorial Patterns of Innovation Where to invest in R&D? R&D expenditure needs critical mass but also shows decreasing returns. R&D is more efficiently used in those regions that invest heavily in R&D, such as those in the European science-based area and, to a lesser extent, in the Smart technological application area and in the Applied science area Where to invest in Human Capital? Knowledge embodied in human capital has a higher impact on regional production than R&D expenditure. The highest impacts of investment are in places where the knowledge embodied in human capital is rather low. In weak regions, human capital is a more important precondition for growth than R&D. Territorial analysis of innovation and R&D patterns underlines the importance of secondary cities for strengthening innovation and the translation of innovation into economic growth. 11

12 Regional types of Services of General Economic Interest Typology on service of general economic interest,

13 Tertiary Education of Population aged 30-34, 2010 Western and Northern Europe have the most educated younger population Younger people (30-34) with tertiary education particularly low in the south-eastern countries, including Turkey Portugal and parts of northern Germany and central Poland under EU average as well Capital cities in general scoring best within the country

14 Risk of Poverty The eastern and southern fringe plus UK regions are at risk of poverty. The highest rates of at risk of poverty are in an arc running east and south from Poland to Greece, in southern Italy and Spain, but also in the UK. The lowest levels are found in Austria, the Czech Republic, southern Germany and northern Italy. Some of the larger cities of the eastern Member States (e.g. Budapest, Bucharest), Madrid in Spain and Oslo in Norway, appear as islands of lower rates of poverty, whilst London stands out for the opposite reason There are considerable domestic disparities. In particular Spain, Italy and Bulgaria are characterised by large disparities between their regions. This hints at some urban-rural contrasts.

15 Aggregate potential impact of climate change Impacts hits hardest in south of Europe and in western territories facing the sea Double challenge in the south as same areas have the lowest adaptive capacity

16 Cold and hotspots of maritime activities Hottest spot around the English Channel Shipping and ports are not the only activities in the zone where land and sea meet. Intensive use of maritime resources most often mean intensive activity on the adjacent land. The channel area between the southeast of England and Belgium, Netherlands and Germany is the main hotspot with very high intensity both on land and on the sea. Other hotspots include the northern Adriatic and Malta and other islands in the Mediterranean.

17 Airports Number of destinations served A rather polycentric pattern Accessibility and connectivity a central agglomeration benefit and driver in the economic and social development of places Modifications of destinations since 2001 changing regional air access, both positively and negatively Only regions with large international airports seem to ensure a stable position of air accessibility. Air connections seem to support European polycentric development and important for world integration

18 Europæiske territorielle udviklingstræk (1) Tendenser til geografisk koncentration These are most evident in demographic change and economic wealth. In short, attractive and wealthy cities and urban regions currently draw people and economic activity, with the core and northern parts of Europe being particularly strong. Byer og byregioner har tiltagende betydning for udviklingen The cities, which increasingly are functionally integrated with their hinterlands, are crucial to Europe s competitiveness globally. However, they are also places where environmental and social challenges are intense. Globale byer er de vigtigste, men... Worldwide networks can be accessed from virtually any place in Europe. Europe s biggest cities are the main gateways to the world. But territorial development and globalisation are about more than centrality. Even smaller places now can be very well connected with the global economy, e.g. through e-commerce or specialised products. næste kategori af byer er også betydningsfulde In general capital cities have a dominant role in the economy. However, 12 of Europe s largest urban economies are not capitals. Overall, second tier cities and territorial decentralisation of investments can boost national economic performance, and with it Europe s overall competitiveness.

19 Europæiske territorielle udviklingstræk (2) Nogle byer og regioner er i tilbagegang Some regions, and even some cities, are experiencing demographic decline and/or significant aging processes. Imbalances in regional and local gender ratios can accelerate demographic decline. Dynamiske naboer til EU Regional hubs in the EU neighbourhood are already playing an important economic role internationally, e.g. Istanbul, Moscow, Tel Aviv, Cairo. EU cities and regions are increasingly connected to these places. Center-nord det stærkeste vækstområde For the ESIF investment themes and indicators, the territorial analyses reveal a difference between the centre-north of Europe and the rest. The centre-north comprises the core of Europe, but also the Nordic Countries, not included in conventional definitions of the so-called Pentagon. This centre-north part of Europe tends to be wealthier than most of the rest of Europe. Vækstpoler i østeuropa Up until the economic and financial crisis, eastern Europe was catching-up in many areas, and partly even leading on economic growth rates. This growth has been driven mainly by the development of the major urban areas and capital cities. While this is a force for growth and cohesion at European level, it carries a risk of widening disparities within countries between the capital city region and the smaller towns and rural regions.

20 Europæiske territorielle udviklingstræk (3) Den økonomiske krise har genskabt ubalancer Across ESIF themes, the territorial patterns reveal that Cohesion Regions, prior to the EU enlargements to the east, have suffered set-backs. This is true for Greece, Portugal, large parts of Spain, southern Italy and to some degree Ireland. The economic crisis has reopened disparities between these areas and the more prosperous centre-north of Europe or even to parts of eastern Europe. Landdistrikter får nye roller Europe has a rich legacy of rural landscapes, but rural Europe is changing. While many rural areas, particularly in eastern Europe or remote regions, remain agricultural, relatively poor and are losing population, the rural economy elsewhere has become increasingly service-based. Land - maritime potentialer i fokus for blå vækst Coastal regions often have significant development potential, but also experience development pressure that needs to be managed. They may be able to capitalise on the potentials of blue growth. Territoriel governance tillægges stigende betydning Governance capacity underpins the development and management of local and regional development and effective use of Structural Funds. To achieve maximum effect there needs to be agreement amongst a range of stakeholders, from the public and private sectors and from civil society.

21 Hvad kan ske på den lange bane? Megatrends Med de eksisterende politikker og global udvikling må Europa forvente: Tiltagende globalisering af Europæiske økonomier... Enden for økonomisk konvergens i Europa Stigende regionale forskelle Højere arbejdskraftmobilitet in Europa... Fortsat geografisk koncentration mod byer Mere polarisering i Europæiske globale gateways... Europas center-nord som den stærkeste performer og bidragyder til Europa 2020 strategiens mål Vigtigt at tage bestik, vurdere og udnytte megatrends i politikudvikling og landsplanlægning både nationalt, i regioner og kommuner. Vigtigt at deltage i diskussionen af langsigtede visioner

22 Konklusioner: Danmark i det større perspektiv Overordnede karakteristika af Danmark i Europa: Danmark er som del af Nordeuropa placeret i dynamisk område med høj velstand og velfærd Mange nøgleindikatorer for udvikling er positive for DK, i hvert fald op til krisen Krisen har ramt DK relativt blidt Nødvendig tilpasning til klimaforandringer synes relativt begrænset Positiv og klar international komponent i det nye forslag til landsplanredegørelse 2013 om grøn omstilling: Hovedstadsregionens og byernes international rolle Integration i transnationale makro-regioner og funktionelle byregioner Fehmern forbindelsens regionale fordele International videregaaende uddannelse Veldefineret statslig opfølgning med klare forventninger til regioner og kommuners medvirken, hvor viden og benchmarking i et større perspektiv er vigtig

23 Mere Information Gør brug af ESPON viden og resultater Alt kan downloades fra Tak for opmærksomheden!