Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

Transkript

1 6. januar 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Der er ikke meget interessant på programmet fra Europa i dag, men fra USA kommer der en række spændende nøgletal samt referat af det seneste rentemøde i Fed. På mødet blev renten hævet, men det var ingen overraskelse, og derfor er referatet nok heller ikke vildt spændende. Dog vil der nok være fokus på, hvor stor modstand, der var mod at hæve renten, ikke mindst blandt de ikke-stemmeberettigede FOMCmedlemmer. Vi ved allerede, at der var enighed blandt de stemmeberettige om at hæve, men det såkaldte dot-plot som omfatter alle FOMC-medlemmer, viste, at to ønskede en uændret rente. Referatet kan måske give nyt om disse tos ståsted. ISM s tillidsindeks for servicesektoren ventes at stige lidt til 56,0 i december efter det faldt markant til 55,9 i november fra 59,1 i oktober. Dermed ser den vigtige servicesektor fortsat ud til at klare sig noget bedre end industrien. Underindekset for beskæftigelsen er en vigtig indikator forud for fredagens arbejdsmarkedsrapport, og det samme er ADP-beskæftigelsesindikatoren, selvom sidstnævntes evner til at forudsige den private del af beskæftigelsen ikke altid er lige god. Der kommer også fabriksordrer og handelstal for november. USA: Service-ISM langt stærkere end fremstilling Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne havde en turbulent dag i går. Store fald først på dagen relateret til ny Kinafrygt vendte til små plusser i Europa, mens USA endte stort set fladt. Her til morgen er stemningen igen vendt til det negative i Asien efter nye tegn på, at centralbanken i Kina er i gang med en gradvis devaluering af CNY. Obligationsrenterne er faldet, og EUR er svækket over for USD. Kina: Centralbanken har her til morgen fastsat referenceraten for USD/CNY noget højere (svagere CNY), og spot USD/CNY er på det højeste niveau siden 2011 trods rapporter om sporadiske interventioner til fordel for CNY. På det frie offshore marked er renminbi (CNH) svækket endnu mere, og spændet mellem onshore og offshore kursen har nået et nyt rekordniveau. Det tyder på massivt svækkelsespres på renminbi. Service-PMI fra Markit/Caixin faldt til 50,2 i december fra 51,2 i november. Det officielle service-pmi fra Kinas statistikbureau steg markant i december (offentliggjort i fredags) og ligger på et noget højere niveau. Nordkorea: Styret i Pyongyang meddeler, at man har foretaget den fjerde testprøvesprængning i sit atomvåbenprogram, og amerikanske geologer har målt et jordskælv på 5,1 på Richter-skalaen. Euroområdet: Forbrugerprisinflationen var 0,2% y/y i december, uændret fra november. Konsensusestimatet var en stigning til 0,3%. Den flade udvikling var måske knapt så overraskende oven på mandagens overraskende fald i inflationen i Tyskland. Den svage inflationsudvikling blev også antydet af, at kerneinflationen (eksklusive fødevarer, energi og tobak) uændret befandt sig på 0,9% y/y i december mod en ventet stigning. Og før afrunding faldt kerneinflationen endda. Den fortsat svagere end ventede inflationsudvikling øger fokus på om ECB kommer til at skulle gøre mere for at støtte op om troværdigheden i inflationsmålet, som ikke har været opfyldt de seneste tre år. Således kan det ventede fald i inflationsraten efter januar meget vel betyde, at ECB skal til at overveje at supplere sine stimulanstiltag endnu en gang i løbet af foråret. Tyskland: Ledigheden var 6,3% i december, uændret fra november. Danmark: Valutareserven faldt med 49 mia. kr. til 434,9 mia. kr. i december, hvilket var lidt mindre end vores forventninger (-65 mia. kr.), men formentligt lidt mere end hvad der var ventet i markedet. Selve interventionsaktiviteten (altså salg af valuta for at styrke DKK) var på 49,6 mia. kr., hvilket kun er overgået en enkelt gang, nemlig umiddelbart i kølvandet på Lehman Brothers kollaps i oktober Udviklingen betyder, at den store opbygning af valutareserven i forbindelse med Nationalbankens forsvar af presset for en stærkere krone i begyndelsen af året, hvor investorerne spekulerede i en opgivelse af fastkurspolitikken, nu er reverseret. Det store fald i valutareserven vil formentlig øge spekulationerne om en snarlig renteforhøjelse fra Nationalbanken - spekulationer som vi allerede har set afspejlet i pengemarkedsrenterne. Valutareserven befinder sig da også nu på et niveau, som vi har set foreneligt med at Nationalbanken ville føle sig komfortable med at sætte renten i vejret. Kronen har endvidere også befundet sig på den svage side af centralpariteten, på et niveau hvor Nationalbanken tidligere har valgt at lade rentespændet til ECB indsnævre. Vi er dog ikke overbeviste om, at Nationalbanken vil tage skridtet og sætte renten op lige med det samme trods det store fald i valutareserven. Det skyldes bl.a. den store grad af nervøsitet, der ser ud til at herske på de finansielle markeder. Men også de fortsat svage tal for inflationen i euroområdet, som vi fik i dag, kan lægge en dæmper på lysten til at sætte renten op. Det har bl.a. ført til en svækkelse af EUR, og DKK er i dag blevet styrket relativt kraftigt over for EUR. Norge: Fremstillings-PMI faldt til kun 46,8 fra 47,6 i november. Euroområdet: Svagere end ventet inflation Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 6. januar 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,89% / indeks 1.031,30) endte i positivt territorium og fik dermed indhentet noget af mandagens tabte. Dog er investorerne fortsat nervøse for udviklingen i verden i kølvandet på spændingerne mellem Iran og Saudi-Arabien og de kraftige fald på de kinesiske aktiemarkeder. I toppen af indekset endte høreapparatselskaberne GN Store Nord (+2,29% / kurs 125,20) og William Demant Holding (+1,95% / kurs 653,50) efter et internationalt finanshus var ude og hæve kursmålene på begge aktier gevaldigt. Dagens kursmæssige vinder blev Novo Nordisk (+2,61% / kurs 404,20) efter konkurrenten Eli Lilly fremlagde nogle særdeles skuffende forventinger til 2016 som følge af en styrket dollar har ramt indtjeningen. A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+0,56% / kurs 8.940,00) oplevede også medvind efter indikationer på, at det er lykkedes containerrederierne at få presset ratestigningerne igennem til kunderne, hvilket har kunne aflæses i stigende fragtrater. I den anden ende af indekset endte FLSmidth (-2,18% / kurs 223,90) efter en række mæglere kom med varslingstegn fra nogle af selskabets konkurrenter.. Renter Der var rentefald på obligationsmarkederne i Tyskland og Danmark i går, hvilket især kan tilskrives, at inflationen i euroområdet skuffede ved at komme ud uændret i december i forhold til november. Der var ventet en stigning. Det øger sandsynligheden for at ECB bliver nødt til at komme med endnu en runde pengepolitisk stimulans. Tallene for den danske valutareserve viste stor interventionsaktivitet i december til fordel for DKK. Det tyder isoleret set på, at en selvstændig dansk renteforhøjelse er på vej, men vi er dog ikke overbeviste om, at Nationalbanken vil tage skridtet og sætte renten op lige med det samme. I USA faldt statsrenterne også i går, trukket af den lavere risikoappetit. Statsrentefuture n fra børsen i Tokyo peger på at det amerikanske rentefald er fortsat her til morgen i takt med nye bekymringer om Kinas økonomi og kinesiske devalueringer. Valuta EUR er svækket over for USD, blandt andet på grund af svage tal for inflationen i euroområdet. Den lavere end ventede inflation kan tvinge ECB ud i en ny runde af pengepolitiske lempelser. Inflationen var uændret 0,2% y/y i december, mens kerneinflationen var uændret 0,9% y/y. Begge dele var lavere end ventet. JPY er her til morgen styrket noget over for USD som følge af mindsket risikoappetit som følge af ny Kinafrygt og tegn på kinesisk devaluering. Centralbanken har her til morgen fastsat referenceraten for USD/CNY noget højere (svagere CNY), og spot USD/CNY er på det højeste niveau siden 2011 trods rapporter om sporadiske interventioner til fordel for CNY. På det frie offshore marked er renminbi (CNH) svækket endnu mere, og spændet mellem onshore og offshore kursen har nået et nyt rekordniveau. Det tyder på massivt svækkelsespres på renminbi De fleste Emerging Markets valutaer er svækket i takt med den faldende risikoappetit. Sydkoreanske KRW er svækket blandt andet fordi Nordkorea meddeler, at man har foretaget den fjerde testprøvesprængning i sit atomvåbenprogram. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 6. januar 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber D ato Selskab R egnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 04/01/16 02:35 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Dec F /01/16 02:45 Kina Caixin China PMI Mfg Dec /01/16 08:30 Sverige Swedbank/Silf PMI Manufacturing Dec /01/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Dec F /01/16 14:00 Tyskland CPI EU Harmonized MoM/YoY Dec P 0.2%/0.4% %/0.4% -0.1%/0.3% 04/01/16 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Dec F /01/16 16:00 USA ISM Manufacturing Dec /01/16 09:00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Dec /01/16 09:55 Tyskland Unemployment Claims Rate SA Dec 6.3% % 6.3% 05/01/16 10:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Dec /01/16 11:00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Dec 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 05/01/16 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Dec A 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 05/01/16 16:00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Dec b 483.9b 434.9b 05/01/16 USA Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales Dec 14.10m m 13.46m 06/01/16 02:45 Kina Caixin China PMI Services Dec /01/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Dec F /01/16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 01. Jan % 06/01/16 14:15 USA ADP Employment Change Dec 198k k 06/01/16 14:30 USA Trade Balance Nov -$44.10b -- -$43.89b 06/01/16 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Dec F /01/16 16:00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Dec /01/16 16:00 USA Factory Orders Nov -0.3% % 06/01/16 16:00 USA Factory Orders Ex Trans Nov % 06/01/16 20:00 USA U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from Dec. meeting 07/01/16 08:00 Tyskland Factory Orders MoM Nov 0.20% % 04/01/16 01/05 Tyskland Retail Sales MoM/YoY Nov 0.5%/3.8% %/2.1% 07/01/16 08:30 Sverige Swedbank/Silf PMI Services Dec /01/16 09:00 Danmark Unemployment Rate SA Nov % 07/01/16 11:00 EMU Economic Confidence Dec /01/16 11:00 EMU Unemployment Rate Nov 10.7% % 07/01/16 11:00 EMU Retail Sales MoM/YoY Nov 0.2%/2.0% %/2.5% 07/01/16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 02. Jan 07/01/16 14:45 USA Fed's Lacker speaks 07/01/16 20:15 USA Fed's Evans Speaks 07/01/16 /2016 Kina Foreign Reserves Dec $3450.0b -- $3438.3b 08/01/16 08:00 Tyskland Industrial Production SA MoM/YoY Nov 0.5%/0.4% %/0.0% 08/01/16 09:00 Danmark Industrial Production MoM Nov % 08/01/16 09:30 Sverige Riksbank Publishes Minutes 08/01/16 09:30 Sverige Industrial Production MoM/YoY Nov %/4.5% -1.1%/4.0% 08/01/16 10:00 Norge Manufacturing Production MoM Nov % -2.3% 08/01/16 14:30 USA Unemployment Rate Dec 5.0% % 08/01/16 14:30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Dec 200k k 08/01/16 14:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings YoY Dec 2.8% % 08/01/16 16:00 USA Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Nov -- Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

4 Research disclaimers Handelsbanken Capital Markets, a division of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (collectively referred to herein as SHB ), is responsible for the preparation of research reports. SHB is regulated in Sweden by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, in Norway by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway, in Finland by the Financial Supervisory of Finland and in Denmark by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. All research reports are prepared from trade and statistical services and other information that SHB considers to be reliable. SHB has not independently verified such information and does not represent that such information is true, accurate or complete. Accordingly, to the extent permitted by law, neither SHB, nor any of its directors, officers or employees, nor any other person, accept any liability whatsoever for any loss, however it arises, from any use of such research reports or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This report has not been given to the subject company, or any other external party, prior to publication to approval the accuracy of the facts presented. The subject company has not been notified of the recommendation, target price or estimate changes, as stated in this report, prior to publication. In no event will SHB or any of its affiliates, their officers, directors or employees be liable to any person for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained in the research reports, including without limitation any lost profits even if SHB is expressly advised of the possibility or likelihood of such damages. The views contained in SHB research reports are the opinions of employees of SHB and its affiliates and accurately reflect the personal views of the respective analysts at this date and are subject to change. There can be no assurance that future events will be consistent with any such opinions. Each analyst identified in this research report also certifies that the opinions expressed herein and attributed to such analyst accurately reflect his or her individual views about the companies or securities discussed in the research report. Research reports are prepared by SHB for information purposes only. The information in the research reports does not constitute a personal recommendation or personalised investment advice and such reports or opinions should not be the basis for making investment or strategic decisions. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Past performance may not be repeated and should not be seen as an indication of future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may forfeit all principal originally invested. Investors are not guaranteed to make profits on investments and may lose money. Exchange rates may cause the value of overseas investments and the income arising from them to rise or fall. This research product will be updated on a regular basis. No part of SHB research reports may be reproduced or distributed to any other person without the prior written consent of SHB. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Please be advised of the following important research disclosure statements: SHB employees, including analysts, receive compensation that is generated by overall firm profitability. Analyst compensation is not based on specific corporate finance or debt capital markets services. No part of analysts compensation has been, is or will be directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed within research reports. From time to time, SHB and/or its affiliates may provide investment banking and other services, including corporate banking services and securities advice, to any of the companies mentioned in our research. We may act as adviser and/or broker to any of the companies mentioned in our research. SHB may also seek corporate finance assignments with such companies. We buy and sell securities mentioned in our research from customers on a principal basis. Accordingly, we may at any time have a long or short position in any such securities. We may also make a market in the securities of all the companies mentioned in this report. [Further information and relevant disclosures are contained within our research reports.] SHB, its affiliates, their clients, officers, directors or employees may own or have positions in securities mentioned in research reports. According to the Bank s Ethical Guidelines for the Handelsbanken Group, the board and all employees of the Bank must observe high standards of ethics in carrying out their responsibilities at the Bank, as well as other assignments. The Bank has also adopted Guidelines concerning Research which are intended to ensure the integrity and independence of research analysts and the research department, as well as to identify actual or potential conflicts of interests relating to analysts or the Bank and to resolve any such conflicts by eliminating or mitigating them and/or making such disclosures as may be appropriate. As part of its control of conflicts of interests, the Bank has introduced restrictions ( Information barriers ) on communications between the Research department and other departments of the Bank. In addition, in the Bank s organisational structure, the Research department is kept separate from the Corporate Finance department and other departments with similar remits. The Guidelines concerning Research also include regulations for how payments, bonuses and salaries may be paid out to analysts, what marketing activities an analyst may participate in, how analysts are to handle their own securities transactions and those of closely related persons, etc. In addition, there are restrictions in communications between analysts and the subject company. For full information on the Bank s ethical guidelines please see the Bank s website the bank/investor relations/corporate social responsibility/ethical guidelines. Handelsbanken has a ZERO tolerance of bribery and corruption. This is established in the Bank s Group Policy on Bribery and Corruption. The prohibition against bribery also includes the soliciting, arranging or accepting bribes intended for the employee s family, friends, associates or acquaintances. For company-specific disclosure texts, please consult the Handelsbanken Capital Markets website: When distributed in the UK Research reports are distributed in the UK by SHB. SHB is authorised by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen) and the Prudential Regulation Authority and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority, and regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request. UK customers should note that neither the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme for investment business nor the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority made under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) for the protection of private customers apply to this research report and accordingly UK customers will not be protected by that scheme. This document may be distributed in the United Kingdom only to persons who are authorised or exempted persons within the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) (or any order made thereunder) or (i) to persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the Order ), (ii) to high net worth entities falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order or (iii) to persons who are professional clients under Chapter 3 of the Financial Conduct Authority Conduct of Business Sourcebook (all such persons together being referred to as Relevant Persons ). When distributed in the United States Important Third-Party Research Disclosures: SHB and its employees are not subject to FINRA s research analyst rules which are intended to prevent conflicts of interest by, among other things, prohibiting certain compensation practices, restricting trading by analysts and restricting communications with the companies that are the subject of the research report. SHB research reports are intended for distribution in the United States solely to major U.S. institutional investors, as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of Each major U.S. institutional investor that receives a copy of research report by its acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide research reports to any other person Reports regarding fixed-income products are prepared by SHB and distributed by SHB to major U.S. institutional investors under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Reports regarding equity products are prepared by SHB and distributed in the United States by Handelsbanken Markets Securities Inc. ( HMSI ) under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). When distributed by HMSI, HMSI takes responsibility for the report. Any U.S. person receiving these research reports that desires to effect transactions in any equity product discussed within the research reports should call or write HMSI. HMSI is a FINRA Member, telephone number ( ).

5 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Johan Sahlström Chief Credit Strategist Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Macro Research Jan Häggström Chief Economist Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Janne Ronkanen Senior Analyst Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research Knut Anton Mork Senior Economist, Norway and China Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Per Wall Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC