Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community

Transkript

1 Commission of the European Communities Kommissionen for De europreiske Frellesskaber Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community Diagrammer og kommentarer til den 0konomiske sit.uation i Fcellesskabet Publication mensuelle

2 This publication appears monthly (except August and September, which are combined in a double number). Denne publikation udkommer manedligt (bortset fra et dobbeltnummer i perioden augustseptember) The Graphs and Notes of Group A appear in eery issue and deal with: A1 ndustrial production A2 Unemployment A3 Consumer prices A4 Balance of trade The others (Groups B, C and D) appear quarterly as follows: Diagrammer og bem<erkninger til gruppe A: A1 nd ustri prod u ktion A2 Antal arbejdsl0se A3 Forbrugerpriser A4 Handelsbalance offentligg0res i hert nummer, medens grupperne B, C og D findes i f0lgende udgaer: January, April, July, October Januar, april, juli, oktober B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 Exports Trade between member countries Discount rate and callmoney rates Money supply Exchange rates B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 Eksport Handel mellem medlemslandene Diskontosats og pengemarkedsrente Pengeforsyning Vekselkurser February, May, AugustSeptember, Noember Februar, maj, augustseptember, noember C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 mports Terms of trade Wholesale prices Retail sales Wages C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 mport Bytteforhold Engrospriser Detailomsretning L0nninger March, June, AugustSeptember, December Marts, juni, augustseptember, december D1 Output in the metal products industries D2 Dwellings authorized D3 Tax reenue D4 Share prices 05 Longterm interest rates D1 Produktion i metalindustri 02 Boliger hortil der er giet byggetilladelse D3 Skatteindtregter D4 Aktiekurser 05 Langfristede rentesatser Results of the monthly business surey carried out among heads of enterprises in the Community are to be found immediately after the graphs and notes. Resultater af den manedlige konjunkturunders0gelse indhentet blandt irksomhedsledelser i Frellesskabet findes umiddelbart efter diagrammerne og kommentarerne. For obserations on the graphs see last page. Bemrerkninger til diagrammerne findes pa sidste side.

3 Commission of the European Communities DirectorateGeneral for Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate for National Economies and Economic Trends 200, rue de la Loi, 1049 Bruxelles GRAPHS AND NOTES ON THE ECONOMC STUATON N THE COMMUNTY DAGRAMMER OG KOMMENTARER TL DEN 0KONOMSKE STUATON F JELLESSKABET Kommissionen for De europreiske Frellesskaber Generaldirektoratet for 0 konomiske og Finansielle Anliggender Direktoratet for Medlemsstaternes 0konomi og Konjunkturudikling 200, rue de la Loi Bruxelles

4 THE WORLD ECONOMC STUATON AT THE BEGNNNG OF THE AUTUMN n recent months the recession in world economic actiity has bottomed out. Clear eidence of a recoery in actiity is, howeer, limited so far to the USA and Japan, the two largest economies which led the other countries into recession and were among the first to introduce reflationary measures. n the countries of Western Europe outside the Community the decline in output has slowed, but no upturn in actiity is yet apparent. There are now indications that the olume of world trade is steadying after falling ery sharply in the.jirst half of 1975 when the imports of noneec deeloped countries declined by about 20% at an annual rate and total world imports (excluding EEC) fell at an annual rate approaching 10%. n line with the gradual slowing down of domestic inflation in the deeloped economies, there has been an easing in the rate of increase in export prices of manufactured goods, partly under the influence of keener competition. Howeer, the decline in world commodity prices came to an end in the first half of this year, and during the summer months the prices of some foodstuffs and raw materials, were edging up again, although not all the gains recorded then hae been held recently. The 10% increase in oil prices agreed by the OPEC countries with effect from 1 October will add further to import and production costs. n the year ahead a gradual recoery in the world economy can be expected. The combined real GNP of the noneec deeloped countries may rise by about 5% in 1976 (compared with a fall of some 2% this year). The olume of world trade could expand by nearly 5% in 1976, thus returning to the 1974leel. Brussels, 31 October DEN 0KONOMSKE STUATON PA VERDENSPLAN VED EFTERARETS BEGYNDELSE Tilbagegangen i erdensokonomien er bragt til ophor i lobet af de seneste maneder. Tegn pa et aktiitetsopsing ses imidlertid endnu kun i USA og Japan, de to igtigste industrilande, som forte de orige ande med sig i det okonomiske tilbageslag, og som ar blandt de forste til at gennemfore aktiitetsfremmende foranstaltninger. de esteuropreiske ande uden for Frellesskabet er produktionsnedgangen aftaget, men der kan endnu ikke ses tegn pa noget opsing. Omfanget af erdenshandelen synes nu at hae stabiliseret sig efter et meget kraftigt fald i forste haldel af 1975, da importen, for sa idt angar de udiklede ande uden for Frellesskabet, faldt med ca. 20 % pa arsbasis, og erdens samlede import ( excl. Frellesskabet) faldt med en hastighed, der nrermede sig 10 % pa arsbasis. Parallelt med den gradis faldende inflation ide udiklede ande, er der sket en afdrempning af eksportpriserne pa forarbejdede arer, delis under indflydelse af storre konkurrence. midlertid ophorte faldet i raarepriserne i lobet af forste palar, og i lobet af sommermanederne er priserne pa adskillige fodearer og raarer igen begyndt at shge. Disse stigninger er dog ikke aile fortsat ide seneste maneder. Den 10 % forhojelse af oliepriserne, som OPEClandene besluttede med irkning fra den 1. oktober, ii medirke til at foroge importpriserne og produktionsomkostningerne. det kommende ar kan der entes en gradis bedring i erdensokonomien. Det samlede bruttonationalprodukt for de udiklede ande uden for Frellesskabet ii formentlig stige med ca. 5 % i faste priser (sammenlignet med et fald pa ca. 2 % i 1975). Der kan formentlig entes en mrengdemressig stigning i erdenshandelen pa nresten 5 % i 1976, hilket er en tilbageenden til 1974nieauet. Bruxelles, den 31. oktober 1975.

5 A NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON 1970 = 100 Unadjusted lkke scesonkorrigerede tal Adjusted indices Scesonkorrigerede tal 150 CE EG EC CE EG EC 150r r _ r F M A M A 0 D 90 F M A M A 0 N During the summer industrial production e) in the Community as a whole stagnated at a leel some 13.5% below the peak reached towards the middle of The continued downward trend in the United Kingdom, the Benelux countries and, aboe all, in taly was more or less offset by the gradual uptum eident in and Germany. The results of the EEC business surey carried out in September show that industrial production in the Community as a whole is no longer falling. There are some signs of a recoery in chemicals, manmade fibres, textiles, clothing and in the consumer durables industries, notably in the motor industry in some countries, especially Germany. Apart from seasonal influences, there shoud also be some recoery in building and construction. Howeer, there is little hope of een a limited recoery in total production before the end of the year, gien the unfaourable situation in the iron and steel industry and the uncertain outlook for other industries, together with the possible impact of bad harests on the food industry. () Excluding building and construction. See note at end. l0bet af sommermanederne stagnerede industriproduktionen ( 1) i Frellesskabet som helhed pa et nieau, der a ca. 13,5 % under det maksimum, der ble naet i midten af Den fortsatte produktionsnedgang, der registreredes i Det forenede Kongerige, i Beneluxlandene og i talien udlignedes delis af den stabilisering, der gradist manifesterede sig i Frankrig og i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland. Resultaterne af E0Fkonjunkturrundsp0rget i september bekrrefter, at faldet i industriproduktionen i Frellesskabet som helhed nu er bragt til oph0r. Et ist opsing synes at rere indledt i den kemiske industri, industrien for syntetiske fibre, tekstil og beklredningsindustrien samt i de industrier, der producerer arige forbrugsgoder. Det er nanlig tilfreldet i automobilindustrien i isse ande, isrer i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland. Ligeledes forentes der, nar der ses bort fra de sresonmressige faktorers pa1rkning, at ille indtrrede et ist opsing i byggeindustrien. Under hensyntagen isrer til den ugunstige situation i stalindustrien og de usikre perspektier for industriens 0rige sektorer, ii der t:jreppe kunne entes sel et begrrenset opsing i den samlede industriproduktion inden arets udgang, sa meget mere som nreringsmiddelindustrien kan komme til at lide under f0lgerne af en darlig h0st. () Excl. byggeindustrien. Jf. afsluttende bemrerkning.

6 NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON A Adjusted indices 1970 = 100 Scesonkorrigerede tal T Danmark ltalia 150 f BelgiqueBelgie Luxembourg United Kingdom ,.; t:"7 7 1"".... _,.,_ ::j ::::;_!.,.? _,"" p < 7 ::; 1 " # K 1... K.. 80 Adjusted indices r BR Deutschland reland Nederland Scesonkorrigerede tal ::::......;;;;;: ,..... r...,.,.. 1,...,_,,....",. "" :""... "".J P...! " P J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAM J JASON OJ FMAMJ J ASOND

7 A2 UNEMPLOYMENT ANTAL ARBEJDSL0SE (thousands) (i tusinde) J L,;; f _,... r... " L.....,.,.,. 7"... io"""" _.,....,_,."",.....,.,...::::: V,.."""..... J..,,_,...,..,_,.....,..,..,;"" Dan mark BR Deutschland _Frace. ltaha reland Nederland BelgiqueBelgie n it Ki,gdm :..!"...,,....,...,. 1.. _,.,..., J J FMAMJ J ASOHDJ FMAMJ J ASOHDJ FMAM J JASOHDJ FMAMJ J ASOHD n September the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures were still tending upwards throughout the Community. Although there has been a slight improement in employment in some sectors this has not yet had any impact on the trend in unemployment. Septembers unemployment figures for most of the member countries include school and uniersityleaers in search of their first job who hae swelled the existing high numbers of young people out of work to an estimated 1.5 million in September, out of a total of oer 5 million. Although there is still much shorttime working throughout the Community the slight downward trend recorded in most countries since the spring has continued. n, the Netherlands and Belgium, September saw a further slight rise in the seasonally adjusted number of unfilled acancies. Tendensen til stignihg i den sresonkorrigerede arbejdl0shed er fortsat oeralt i september maned. Den afspejler endnu ikke den me get sage forbedring af beskreftigelsen som er registreret i isse sektorer. Der er gund til at bemrerke, at for september maned omfatter statistikken for hoedparten af medlemslandene de unge, der s0ger deres f0rste arbejde efter at hae afsluttet deres skolegang i ar; disse unge har fomget en in den for Frellesskabet allerede betydelig ungdomsarbejdsl0shed, der i september urderedes til ca. halanden million personer ud af et samlet antal arbejdsl0se pa 5 millioner. Sel om omfanget af korttidsarbejde stadig er meget stort i Frellesskabet som helhed, er den tendens til et sagt fald, som siden foraret har reret registreret i de fleste medlemsstater, dog fortsat. Antallet af ubesatte ledige pladser korrigeret for sresonudsing er atter i september steget lidt i Frankrig, Nederlandene og Belgien.

8 CONSUMER PRCES 1970 = B R Deutschland ltalia Belgique Belgie Luxembourg... _ """ ::._ :;;; :::::: ,.. _.,..!:::" 1 1..,..... FORBRUGERPRSER 1 l 1975 f,.., Monthly ariations in % Manedlig rendring i % 1j + 2,5 f j + 1,5 A Oanmark reland Nederland United Kingdom _... r:: 1..,... ""..,..."", b. J " l 1 _, J.....,..., l? l,c 100 J F M A M J J A S 0 H D J F M A M J J A S 0 H D J F M A M J J A S 0 H D The upward moement of the cost of liing accelerated in September when consumer prices in the Community as a whole rose at an annual rate of about 10% compared with about 5% in August. All member countries shared in this trend which was largely due to the ending of faourable seasonal influences. Howeer, the acceleration was less marked than in the same period last year in all member countries except Germany, where the sharper upsurge was mainly attributable to an unusually high seasonal rise in the price of domestic heating oil and petrol. n the other countries the cost of liing climbed more rapidly mainly because of increases in the prices of foodstuffs and many serices; prices of manufactured products as a whole again rose at a fairly moderate pace in spite of seasonal increases in a number of products such as clothing. Howeer, fairly steep increases in motor ehicle prices were recorded or announced in a number of countries. Fomgelsen af leeomkostningerne er i september taget til i Frellesskabet; pa arsbasis naede stigningen i forbrugerpriserne ca. 0 % i Frellesskabet som helhed, imod ca. 5 % i foregaende maned. Denne stigning, der hoedsageligt skyldes bortfald af gunstige sresonmressige faktorer er bleet konstateret i aile medlemsstater. Den har dog reret mindre udtalt end i september 1974 undtagen i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, hor den for 0Vrigt V<eSentJigt skyjdes den i ar betydejigt kraftigere sresonbestemte fordyrelse af olieprodukter til indenlandsk brug og af benzin; i de 0rige medlemslande har den accelererende prisstigning isrer kunnet tilskries stigningerne pa nreringsmidler samt pa talrige tjenesteydelser; for de forarbejdede arers edkommende er stigningen som helhed stadig forholdsis moderat trods den sresonmressige opgang, som er konstateret for nogles edkommende som for eksempel beklredning. Der er dog registreret eller bebudet mrerkbare prisstigninger pa automobiler i nogle ande.

9 A4 BALANCE OF TRADE HANDELSBALANCE Mio Eur Dan mark _ BR Deutschland Nederland UEBL r l r... "...,....:::, A o "" _ "..l!... """ r s...:.... "._, " L r ::: h r A._.. ". JY,_ 1 " J 11 L """ V " f, "".1 j A 1, J CE EG EC r reland ltalia United Kingdom 2000 r 1 L l 1 l l 1 l J J 1 l J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND.. While still remaining close to equilibrium the trade balance of the Community has started to deteriorate slightly since the early summer. mports hae in general steadied or begun to rise again, and exports continue in most cases to be weak. Seeral countries hae seen a deterioration in their trade balances recently. The United Kingdoms trade deficit in the third quarter was wider than in either of the preceding two quarters, although the results for September do show an improement oer the poor August figures. n the trade surplus has narrowed since June. The trade balance of the BLEU has moed from surplus in to deficit since the first quarter, but the outcome for August indicates some reersal of this trend due to the weakness of imports. The trade surplus of Germany has successiely declined in each of the first three quarters of this year. By contrast, the Netherlands and reland hae experienced some improement in their trade balances in recent months, mainly due to the depressed state of imports. n taly, principally as a result of a recoery in exports, there was a further improement in the trade balance in August. Ved sommerens begyndelse indledtes en mindre forringelse af Frellesskabets handelsbalance, men denne er dog stadig tret ed ligeregt. lmporten er i almindelighed forbleet stabil eller begyndt at stige igen, og eksporten er i de fleste tilfrelde stadig a. flere ande har der i den seneste tid reret tale om en forrerring af handelsbalancen. Det forenede Kongeriges handelsunderskud ar i tredje kartal st0rre end underskuddet i noget af de to foregaende kartaler, sk0nt resultaterne for september iser en forbedring i forhold til de ringe augusttal. Frankrig er oerskuddet pa handelsbalancen indsnreret siden juni. BL0Us handelsbalance er siden f0rste kartal rendret fra et oerskud til et underskud, men augustresultatet synes at ise et omsing i denne tendens takket rere den afdrempede import. Tysklands handelsoerskud er gradis aftaget i hert af arets tre f0rste kartaler. Derimod har Nederlandene og rland i!0bet af de seneste maneder haft en is forbedring af handelsbalancen, nanlig pa grund af den ringe import. talien forbedredes handelsbalancen yderligere i august hoedsagelig som f0lge af et opsing i eksporten.

10 ...,. EXPORTS to nonmember countries EKSPORT til ikkemedlemslande Mio Eur T CE EG EC Danmark BR Deutschland reland ltalia Nederland UEBL United Kingdom,_ =""" 1,... """""......,., _,_..... ",,, r, "..,.,......, _,_...,.,.!""..::::: i... r...,.,. J _..,.... t l... ""... r... _; _,.,,,...!... _......,,... J FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N OJ FM AM J J AS 0 N D The alue of Community exports to nonmember countries has declined somewhat further since the middle of the year. Despite the recoery in the economies of the USA and Japan, exports to these countries fell yet again. The weakness was still more pronounced in sales to the other industrialized countries. Exports to the state trading countries in general remained stable or rose slightly. Only delieries to OPEC countries continued to increase strongly. Comparing the latest three months for which data are aailable with the preceding three months, German exports hae started to increase again, following the slight recoery in foreign orders. Exports in taly and in the Netherlands also increased somewhat. By contrast, in and in the UK there was a decline in exports, under the influence of lower foreign sales respectiely of agricultural and manufactured goods. The other member countries also showed some decline during the latest months; for the BLEU the decline was strong, mainly due to the influence of the depressed conditions of the steel market. V rerdien af Frellesskabets eksport til ikkemedlemslande er yderligere faldet siden arets midte. Det 0konomiske opsing, som er pabegyndt i De forenede Stater og Japan, har endnu ikke kunnet forhindre et nyt fald i salget til disse ande. Srekkelsen ar endnu mere udtalt, for sa idt angar salgene til de 0rige industrialiserede ande. Eksporten til statshandelslandene ar i almindelighed stabil eller til tog en anelse. Kun i leeringerne til OPEClandene, ar der stadig kraftig rekst. En sammenjigning af de seneste tre maneder, for hilket der findes talmateriale, med de foregaende tre maneder iser, at Tysklands eksport atter er begyndt at tiltage og dermed f0lge den sage rekst i ordrer fra udlandet. Eksporten tiltog ogsa noget i talien og Nederlandene. Derimod ar der for Frankrig og Det forenede Kongerige tale om et fald i eksporten forarsaget af en aere afsretning i udlandet af henholdsis landbrugsarer og forarbejdede arer. Ogsa i de 0rige medlemsstater ar der tale om fald i l0bet af de seneste maneder; for BL0Us edkommende ar nedgangen kraftig, hoedsagelig pa grund af irkningerne af de darlige ilkar pa stalmarkedet.

11 82 TRADE HANDEL BETWEEN MEMBER COUNTRES MELLEM MEDLEMSLANDENE Basis : imports Mio Eur Basis: import L C G Ed 1 Danmark BR Deutschland reland ltal ia Nederland UEBL United Kingdom,_ " "" = r _.., _,...,,..., ,.,.,._... 1."" J,oill" _. r _ J......, 1 J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND L L ; ? Although the trend in domestic actiity in the Community as a whole has been weak, the alue of imports from other member countries has increased slightly in recent months following the decline towards the end of 1974 and early this year. n, where some signs of a recoery in home demand are present, imports, mainly of consumption goods, hae begun to increase slowly and at the same time exports to other member countries hae also risen slightly. Despite declining domestic demand United Kingdom imports from the EEC hae al so been rising, but not as rapidly as imports from other areas. n Germany imports hae steadied in the summer months but they were appreciably higher than at the beginning of this year. taly, Denmark and reland had a rather stable pattern for imports, while the Benelux countries showed a decline in recent months. Among product groups trade within the Community has been especially depressed fo r inestment and intermediate goods. Shmt tendensen i den interne aktiitet for Frellesskabet som helhed har reret igende, er rerdien af importen fra andre medlemsstater i de seneste maneder steget lidt efter faldet mod udgangen af 1974 og i begyndelsen af Frankrig, hor der synes at rere tegn til et opsing i den indenlandske eftersp0rgsel, er der pabegyndt en langsom stigning i importen fra de 0rige medlemslande, nanlig af forbrugsarer, og samtidig er eksporten til disse ande ogsa steget lidt. Trods en faldende indenlandsk eftersp0rgsel er Det forenede Kongeriges import fra Frellesskabet ogsa steget, men ikke sa hurtigt som importen fra ikkemedlemslande. Ty kland har importen stabiliseret sig i l0bet af sommermanederne, men ar betydeligt st0rre end ed arets begyndelse. ltalien, Danmark og lrland a importm0nstret ret fast, medens der i Beneluxlandene ar tale om et fald i de seneste maneder. Blandt aregrupperne ar der isrer for sa idt angar handelen med inesteringsgoder og halfabrikata tale om en nedgang inden for Frellesskabet.

12 DSCOUNT RATE AND CALL MONEY RATES DSKONTOSATS OG PENGEMARKEDSRENTE B ?31 : BR Deutschland 14 reland United Kingdom L "a: r+r7r, r,,,r l T+ 2 LLLLL L 11,.,...,.,,..,,. Danmark 10 ltalia Nederland Belgique Belgie _.. :.. : 0 l l J 1.; JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASONO JFMAMJJASOND At the beginning of the autumn shortterm interest rates declined further in most member countries; in Germany and the Netherlands in particular money market conditions were ery easy at times. n August and September the low interest rate policy was reinforced by another round of discount rate reductions in all Community countries except reland and the United Kingdom. The discount rate was lowered in Germany from 4.5% to 4% on 5 August and from 4% to 3_5% on 12 September, in the Netherlands from 6% to 5.5% on 15 August and from 5.5% to 4.5% on 15 September, in Denmark from 8% to 7.5% on 18 August, in Belgium from 6.5% to 6% on 20 August, in from 9.5% to 8% on 5 September and in taly from 7% to 6% on 15 September. Where other forms of refinancing besides rediscount are aailable from the central bank, the releant interest rates were also cut. The Banque de Belgique increased the credit institutions rediscount quota with effect from 31 August and the Bundesbank did the same with effect from October. Howeer, the Bank of England, mainly for external payments reasons, raised its minimum lending rate once again, from % to 12%, on 3 October. Since the weakening of shortterm interest rates in the USA at the beginning of October the margins between interest rates in the Community and the USA hae narrowed. 1 de fleste af medlemslandene er den korte rente fortsat faldet ed begyndelsen af eften1ret; isrer i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland og i Nederlandene har pengemarkedet reret midlertidigt meget roligt. august og september ble rentesrenkningspolitikken, undtagen i Det forenede Kongerige og rland, forstrerket gennem nye diskontosrenkninger. Diskontoen ble i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland srenket fra 4,5 til 4 % d. 15. august og fra 4 til 3,5 % d. 12. september, i Nederlandene fra 6 til 5,5 % d. 15. august og fra 5,5 til 4,5 % d. 15. september, i Danmark fra 8 til 7,5 % d. 18. august, i Belgien fra 6,5 til 6 % d. 20 august, i Frankrig fra 9,5 til 8 % d. 5. september og i ltalien fra 7 til 6 % d. 15. september. de ande, hor der ed siden af rediskonteringen ogsa fandtes andre genfinansieringsformer hos centralbanken, fandt en tilsarende rentesrenkning sted. Den belgiske og den tyske seddelbank har desuden med irkning fra henholdsis d. 31. august og d.. oktober fomget pengeinstitutternes rediskonteringskote. Derimod har Bank of England oerejende ud fra udenrigs0konomiske synspunkter d. 3. oktober endnu en gang sat»minimum lending rate«op med % saledes at den nu er 12 %. Efter faldet i den korte rente i USA i begyndelsen af oktober, er forskellen mellem rentenieauerne i Frellesskabet og i USA bleet formindsket.

13 84 MONEY SUPPLY (annual change) PENGEFORSYNNG (arlig rendring) % 25 11y ! Danmark BR Deutschland Belgique Belgie Jill. "" } l, 1, iw "...,......,,_ i. 1. f... ".. l ?...,......,..,..._ _ reland ltalia Nederland United Kingdom= A. A.. "" r... _ ",. _, 1 1 l 1,r J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S.. " J ) ( 1 ( V """"", _1, 1 1,1 "... 0 N D JAS 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D Since the spring, the rate of yeartoyear growth in money supply (notes and coin in circulation and sight deposits) in most Community countries has quickened again. n the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, money supply in the summer was indeed some 25% up on a year earlier. The more rapid monetary expansion in most countries is mainly due to heay demand for credit from the public authorities. Priate demand for credit, on the other hand, is still weak in all the member countries except, where it has picked up since the summer. Owing to the relaxation of monetary policy bank liquidity has in general remained ample. n the minimum resere requirements on sight deposits were cut from 12% to 2% in midseptember. Although in Denmark the ceiling on bank lending was raised by 2% at the end of August, measures to limit the growth of bank deposits hae just been announced. Money supply inclusie of term deposits, which is not shown in the graph, is in the main growing more slowly than money supply narrowly defined, but in seeral countries its trend has undoubtedly been affected by changes in interest rate structures. Siden foraret har pengemrengden (pengeoml0b og indestaende pa anfordring) pany ist en strerkere stigningstakt i de fleste frelleskabslande. Det forenede Kongerige og i Nederlandene ar den i sommer endog ca. en fjerdedel st0rre end et ar tidligere. Den strerkere fomgelse af pengemrengden som er konstateret skyldes i de fleste tilfrelde f0rst og fremmest den offentlige sektors strerke krediteftersp0rgsel. Den priate sektors krediteftersp0rgsel er derimod forbleet ringe i aile medlemsstater med undtagelse af Frankrig, hor den har ist et opsing siden sommeren. Som f0ge af lempelsen af pengepolitikken er likiditeten hos bankerne i det store og hele forbleet rigelig. Frankrig er satsen pa den obligatoriske kassebinding for indskud pa anfordring i mid ten af september bleet srenket fra 12 % til 2 % Danmark, hor udlansloftet er bleet breet med 2 % slutningen af august og med 3 % i slutningen af oktober, er netop bekendtgjort foranstaltninger med henblik pa at begrrense udidelsen af bankernes likiditet. Pengemrengden i idere forstand (inklusie indskud pa opsigelse), som ikke er ist i diagrammet, iser for det meste en langsommere stigningstakt end pengemrengden i snrerere forstand; udiklingen er i flere ande fortsat uden til pairket af den rendrede rentestruktur.

14 EXCHANGE RATES (weighted change in % since December 1971) VEKSELKURSER (ejet rendring i % i forhold til december 1971) 85 % Dan mark BR Deutschland reland ltalia 25 Nederland UEBL BLEU United Kingdom _,..,.,.?7 r.., ln.. f la t. ;; z..."", h i., P A t 1 "1 V y h. ". ) " : l J...,... 1 " 1... " "!" ",.... "" : "... "" "" J " 1 1 JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOHO At the beginning of October, the trend in the exchange rates of the Community currencies against the dollar was reersed as the tendency for these currencies to depreciate, which had been apparent for seeral months and gathered additional strength in September, gae way to a recoery. During Octpber the Community currencies gained oer two per cent against the dollar. The immediate cause was probably the moement of interest rates : since the beginning of October shortterm interest rates hae eased in the United States. The Community exchange rate system has continued to function smoothly and no interention has been necessary for seeral months. Howeer, the Belgian franc has weakened somewhat since August. Since the beginning of October sterling has again lost ground against the other Community currencies, after holding steady in August and September as a result of official action which admittedly caused a considerable drain on foreign exchange reseres. The British monetary authorities again tried to support sterling by increases in interest rates. As for the lira, despite the weakness it showed in October its fluctuations relatie to the snake currencies since July hae not exceeded the margins of the Community exchange rate system. begyndelsen af oktober er der indtradt en ending i kursudiklingen mellem frellesskabsalutaerne og dollaren. Fra dette tidspunkt er den dealueringstendens af frellesskabsalutaerne, som har kunnet iagttages gennem flere maneder, og som endnu i september forstrerkedes, bleet afl0st af en opgang. l0bet af oktober styrkede frellesskabsalutaerne stillingen oer for dollaren med ca. 3 o. Grunden skal formentlig s0ges i renteudiklingen: siden begyndelsen af oktober har den korte rente i USA reret faldende. Det frelles interentionssystem irkede igen upaklageligt og i flere maneder har det ikke reret n0dendigt at interenere ; den belgiske franc er dog siden august srekket noget. Pundets ekselkurs har siden begyndelsen af oktober igen reret igende oer for de 0rige»slange«alutaer, efter at den i august og september om end mod betydelige alutatab kunne fastholdes. De britiske alutamyndigheder har igen fors0gt at st0tte pundet gennem renteforh0jelser. Pa trods af den saghed liren har ist i oktober maned, har dens udsing oer for»slange«alutaerne ikke siden juli maned oerskredet det frelles alutasystems margener.

15 RESULTS OF THE BUSNESS SURVEY 1 ) OF COMMUNTY NDUSTRY RESULTATER AF KONJUNKTURUNDERS0GELSEN 1 ) NDUSTRSEKTOREN FJELLESSKABET + 40 %of answers % at sar Total orderbooks Bedommelse af den samlede ordrebeholdning , lo""" Jlllllllll"" " l.l., CE EG EC BR Deutschland ltalia Nederland Belgique Belgie irelfndl 1 JFMAMJ J A S,._..._,_ L, " lll. r "T =r" r : "" "._ l l l "111 0 N 0 J F M A M J J A S 0 N 0 J F M A M J J A S 0 N 0 J F MM J 0 Assessment of stocks of finished goods Bedommelse af frerdigarelagre i,t: N J FMAMJ JA S ONO J F MAM J J ASONO J FMAMJ J ASONOJ FMAMJ J ASONO

16 Expectations : production Produktionsforentninger %of answers %at sar Graphs and ll show businessmen s iews of their total orderhooks and their stocks o(finished goods, represented as threemonth moing aerages of the aifference between the percentage of those who find them "aboe normal" ( +) and the percentage of those who find them "below normal" (). Graph ill shows threemonth moing aerages oft he difference (as percentage of replies) between the number of businessmen who expected production to be up ( +) and those who expected it to be down (). The table below shows businessmen s assessments of their total orderbooks, foreign orderbooks and stocks of finished goods during the last three months, ( +) being aboe normal, ( = ) being normal, ( ) being below normal. t also shows whether, they expect the following three or four months to bring an increase ( +), no change ( = ) or decrease () in their production and in their selling prices. Detailed comments are gien in "Results of the business surey carried out among heads of enterprises in the Community", published three times a year. Diagrammerne og ll gengier tre maneders glidende gennemsnit af forskelsardien melem irksomhedsledernes sar»stflrre«( +) og»mindre«( ) edrfjrende ordrebestand og fardigarelagre. Diagram ll iser ligeledes i form af tre maneders glidende gennenisnit forskelsardien (procent af sarene) mellem irksomhedsledernes forentninger til en»for(i}gelse«( +) eller en»formindskelse«( :_) af produktionen. Nedenstaende tabel gengier for de seneste tre maneder irksomhedsledernes bedfjmmelse aj, om de samlede ordrebeholdninger, udlandsordrer og.fardigarelagre ar.forholdsis store ( +), nor male ( =) eller.forholdsis sma (). Desuden er irksomhedsledernes.forentninger om oksende ( +), nogenlunde uandrede ( =) eller aftagende () produktion og salgsprisen i de ffllgende tre eller fire maneder anjfjrt. Ud.fflrlige kommentarer findes i»resultaterne a.f konjunkturundersfjgelsen hos irksomhedsledere i Fallesskabet«der o.f.fentligg(i}res tre gange om aret. BR Deutschland J A s J A s Total orderbooks = Den samlede ordre beholdning Export orderbooks = Den udenlandskeordrebeholdning Stocks of finished goods = Frerdigarelagre Expectations: production = Produktionsforentningerne Expectations: selling prices = Salgsprisforentninger ) Excluding construction, food, beerages and tobacco. J reland t alia Nederland Belgique Lux em EEC Belgie bourg E0F A s J A s J A s J A s J A s J A s ) Eksklusie bygge og anlagsirksomhed, narings og nydelsesmiddelindustri.

17 Obserations on the Graphs Bemrerkninger til diagrammerne A ndustrial production: indices of the S.O.E.C., excluding construction but, exceptfor, including, since no , the food, drink and tobacco industries. For the deseasonalized indices, three month moing aerages. Community: estimates. reland: quarterly index. A 2 Unemployment: Three month moing aerages of the figures adjusted for seasonal ariations by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. : number of persons seeking employment. taly: the cure represents the number of persons registered at labour exchanges; this does not correspond to the number of unemployed. Luxembourg: negligible. Belgium: completely unemployed persons receiing unemployment benefit. A 3 Consumer prices: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities. A ndustriproduktion: index ( exc. bygge og anlrrgsirksomhed) udarbejdet af S.K.E.F.; undtagen for Frankrigs edkommende indeholder indexet fra nr n{erings og nydelsesmiddelindustri. SrRsonkorrigerede indexfremtrrrder sam tre maneders glidende gennemsnit. F{ellesskabet: skfm. rland: kartalsindex. A 2 Antal arbejdslose: Tre maneders glidende gennemsnit af Sfl.011 korrigerede tal fra Det statistiske Kantor for De europfeiske FrRllesskaber. Frankrig: antal arbejdssegende. talien: kuren angier antal personer, registreret pa arbejdsanisningskontorer; dette sarer ikke til antal arbejdsese. Luxembourg: ubetydelig arbejdsleshed. Belgien: fuldtids ledige personer, som modtager arbejdsleshedsunderstettelse. A 3 Forbrugerpriser: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kantor for De europrriske FrRilesskaber. A 4 Balance of trade: ncluding intracommunity trade. Community: trade with nonmember countries only. Calculated on the basis of the import and export figures adjusted for seasonal ariations by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Threemonth moing aerages. Exports fob, imports cif; excluding monetary gold. Cures for recent months may be partly based on estimates. Belgium and Luxembourg: common cure. A 4 Handelsbalance: nklusie handel indenfor FrResskabet. Fcellesskabet: kun handel med ikke medlemslande. Beregnet pa grundag af tal for import og eksport srrsonkorrigeret af Det statistiske Kantor for De europceiske Fcellesskaber. Tre maneders glidende gennemsnit. Eksport fo.b., import c.if, eksklusie monetcert guld. Kurer kan for de seneste maneder cere deis base ret pa skon. Belgien og Luxembourg: fcelles kure. 8 Exports: Seasonally adjusted alues in Eu. proided by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Threemonth moing aerages. Cures for recent months may be partly based on estimates. Belgium and Luxembourg: common cure. 81 Eksport: SrRsonkorrigerede cerdier i Eur udfrrrdiget af Det statistiske Kantor for De europceiske FrRllesskaber. Tre maneders glidende gennemsnit. Kurer kan for de seneste maneder cere deis base ret pa sktm. Belgien og Luxembourg: fcelles kure. 8 2 Trade between member countries: Seasonally adjusted alues in Eur proided by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Threemonth moing aerages. Cures for recent months may be partly based on estimates. Belgium and Luxembourg: common cure. 82 Handel mellem medlemsstaterne: Scesonkorrigerede cerdier i Eur udfcerdiget af Del statistiske Kantor for De europrriske Fcellesskaber. Tre maneders glidende gennemsnit. Kurer kan for de seneste mfmeder cere deis baseret pa skon. Belgien og Luxembourg: fcelles kure. 83 Discount rate and call money rates: Unbroken line shows official discount rate. Dotted line shows monthly aerage of the rates ji1r call money. n Denmark rates for call money are not published. B 3 Diskontosats og pengemarkedsrente: Ubrudt kure iser diskontosats. Punkteret kure iser manedligt gennemsnit qf pengemarkedsrenten. Danmark er pengemarkedsrenten ikke offentliggjort. 84 Money supply: Notes and coin in circulation and sight deposits (exc. interbank deposits). Threemonth moing aerage of percentage change on same month ofpreceding year, calculated from data of the SOEC. 84 Pengeforsyning: Seddel og mentomleb og indskud pa anfordring. &ndring i forhold til tilsarende maned foregaende ar. Tre maneders glidende gennemsnit, beregnet pa grundlag af tal fraskef. 8 5 Exchange rates: Reference period: Washington Monetary Agreement of 18 December 1971: weighting according to structure of trade. 8 5 Vekselkurser: Referenceperiode: Washingtonajialen af 18. december 1971; ejet i oeremstemmelse med handelsstrukturen. 1 Eur = (September 1975) 3,21978 DM 3,35507 Fl 48,6572 FbFlx 7,57831 Dkr 5,55419 Ffr 842 Lit 0,596