Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 4. januar 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Det første nøgletal i 2016 (kinesisk PMI) blev allerede offentliggjort af Kinas statistiskbureau natten til fredag dansk tid et par timer efter vi andre sprang ind i det nye år. I dag kommer der fremstillings-pmi for mange flere lande. For fx euroområdet er der dog tale om endelige tal, idet flashestimatet kom før jul. Inflationstallene for de enkelte tyske delstater tikker ind løbende her til formiddag inden den samlede tyske decemberinflation offentliggøres kl. 14. Det giver et vigtigt signal forud for morgendagens inflation for hele euroområdet, som vi venter stiger til 0,3% y/y fra 0,2% i november, primært fordi de store energiprisfald for et år siden nu falder ud af beregningen af årsvækstraten. ISM-tillidsindekset for den amerikanske industri kommer i eftermiddag. Her venter konsensus en lille stigning fra novembers 48,6 til 49,0, men det er ikke nok til at fjerne bekymringen for, at det amerikanske opsving allerede synger på sidste vers. Heldigvis udgør den amerikanske industri en mindre del af økonomien end i mange andre lande, og det går fortsat fint i servicesektoren (se figur). Resten af ugen bliver også begivenhedsrig, kulminerende med den amerikanske arbejdsmarkedsrapport på fredag. Betydningen for de finansielle markeder af arbejdsmarkedsrapporten er kun øget i 2016 efter Fed har hævet renten for første gang og gjort fremtidige renteforhøjelser afhængige af de indkomne data. Traditionen tro kommer der i løbet af ugen strømpile for arbejdsmarkedsrapporten i form af underindekset for beskæftigelsen i fremstillngs-ism (i dag) og i service-ism samt ADP-beskæftigelsesindikatoren (onsdag). Fra euroområdet kommer der detailomsætning, ledighed og EU-Kommissionens ESI-barometer torsdag, mens der fra Danmark kommer valutareservetal (onsdag), ledighed (torsdag) og industriproduktion (fredag) USA: Fremstillings-ISM ventes kun at rette sig lidt Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De asiatiske ligger i minus her til morgen efter skuffende kinesisk PMI og efter eskalerede spændinger i Mellemøsten. Sidstnævnte har samtidig sendt olieprisen opad, Mellemøsten: Saudiarabien har nedlagt de diplomatiske forbindelser til shiitiiske Iran og udvist Iranske diplomater efter Saudiarabiens ambassade i Tehran blev angrebet at demonstranter. Det er seneste eskalering af situationen i Mellemøsten efter Saudiarabien i nytåret henrettede 47 personer, herunder den systemkritiske og Shiite-støttende Nimr-al-Nimr. Kina: PMI-indikatoren for fremstillingssektoren fra Markit/Caixin faldt til 48,2 i december fra 48,6 i november. Der var ellers ventet en stigning i december. Det ville have været tredje måned i træk med stigning, hvilket ville have været bedre i tråd med vores forventning om, at økonomien nu endelig har stabiliseret sig efter markant opbremsning tidligere på året. Indekset har nu ligget under tærskelværdien 50 ti måneder i træk. Også den officielle PMI-indikator fra Kinas statistikbureau som blev offentliggjort nytårsdag skuffede i december ved kun at stige marginalt til 49,7 fra 49,6. Der var ventet en lidt større fremgang. Underindekset for nye eksportordrer faldt meget kraftigt med henholdsvis 3,8 og 1,1 point i Markits og den officielle PMI. Det tyder på, at det især er efterspørgslen efter Kinas eksport fra resten af verden, som udvikler sig negativt, og som fortsat giver eksportvirksomhederne modvind. Dermed holder vi fast i, at den underliggende udvikling for den indenlandske økonomi vil være positiv i første del af 2016, idet de mange lempelser af den økonomiske politik understøtter økonomien. Det understøttes også af at den officielle PMI for servicesektoren steg pænt i december og nu ligger på flotte 54,4, hvilket jo er klart på den rigtige side af 50. Markits service-pmi for december offentliggøres onsdag, men lå på 51,2 i november. Japan: PMI-indekset steg marginalt til 52,6 fra 52,5 i november. Kina: Alarmerende nytårshilsen fra Kinas PMI Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 4. januar 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,10% / indeks 1.039,10) endte stort set uændret på årets sidste handelsdag i Dagen var generelt præget af lav aktivitet og få aktører i markedet grundet fortsat juleferie. Dermed var det heller ikke en dag som var præget af de store nyheder, hvorfor aktierne ikke var drevet af noget selskabsspecifikt. I toppen af indekset endte Tryg (+2,08% / kurs 137,40) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Pandora (+1,40% / kurs 872,00) fulgte godt med og endte i det højeste niveau nogensinde. Det kan formentlig skyldes, at flere investorer øger deres positionering op mod offentliggørelsen af den amerikanske smykkekæde Signets julesalg og Pandoras kapitalmarkedsdag, som finder sted i starten af det nye år. Vestas (+0,00% / kurs 483,80) endte uændret på trods af, at vindmølleproducenten annoncerede en vindmølleordre fra Finland på 117 MW. I den anden ende af indekset endte FLSmidth (-1,15% / kurs 240,00) og er dermed fortsat under pres af de særdeles lave råvarepriser.. Renter Obligationsrenterne faldt mandag mellem jul og nytår, men steg derefter og ligger nu lidt højere end før jul i USA og stort set uændret i Tyskland/Danmark. Der har ikke været mange makroøkonomiske nøgletal til at styre retningen, og obligationsmarkederne har i tynd handel primært været drevet af udviklingen i den generelle risikoappetit. Renterne vil nok åbne med fald her til morgen efter skuffende kinesisk PMI og eskalerende spændinger i Mellemøsten har mindsket risikoappetitten, og dermed nok sender investorerne over mod de relativt sikre statsobligationer. Valuta Valutamarkederne har haft en rolig jule- /nytårsferie med kun små bevægelser og ingen nøgletal eller begivenheder til at spolere julefreden. Således ligger EUR lidt svagere over for USD end før jul, men kun marginalt. Heller ikke de øvrige store valutakryds har flyttet meget på sig. I Kina, hvor julen fylder mindre end på vores længdegrader og hvor nytåret først fejres senere, har der ikke været samme grad af stilstand. Således har myndighederne holdt igen med at intervenere til fordel for CNY og dermed givet CNY lov til at fortsætte svækkelsen over for USD til nye svageste niveauer siden De daglige bevægelser er små i forhold til udsvingene i de frit flydende valutaer, men samlet er CNY svækket med omkring 1½ % over for USD siden CNY formelt blev indlemmet i IMF s SDR valutakurv i november. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 4. januar 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber D ato Selskab R egnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 04/01/16 02:35 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Dec F /01/16 02:45 Kina Caixin China PMI Mfg Dec /01/16 08:30 Sverige Swedbank/Silf PMI Manufacturing Dec /01/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Dec F /01/16 11:00 Danmark Danish PMI Survey Dec /01/16 14:00 Tyskland CPI EU Harmonized MoM/YoY Dec P 0.2%/0.4% %/0.3% 04/01/16 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Dec F /01/16 16:00 USA ISM Manufacturing Dec /01/16 01/05 Tyskland Retail Sales MoM/YoY Nov 0.5%/3.8% %/2.1% 05/01/16 09:00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Dec /01/16 09:55 Tyskland Unemployment Claims Rate SA Dec 6.3% % 05/01/16 10:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Dec /01/16 11:00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Dec 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 05/01/16 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Dec A 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 05/01/16 16:00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Dec /01/16 16:00 Danmark Change in Currency Reserves Dec b 05/01/16 /2016 USA Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales Dec 14.10m m 06/01/16 02:45 Kina Caixin China PMI Services Dec /01/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Dec F /01/16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 01. Jan % 06/01/16 14:15 USA ADP Employment Change Dec 198k k 06/01/16 14:30 USA Trade Balance Nov -$44.10b -- -$43.89b 06/01/16 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Dec F /01/16 16:00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Dec /01/16 16:00 USA Factory Orders Nov -0.3% % 06/01/16 16:00 USA Factory Orders Ex Trans Nov % 06/01/16 16:00 USA Durable Goods Orders Nov F % 06/01/16 16:00 USA Durables Ex Transportation Nov F % 06/01/16 16:00 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Nov F % 06/01/16 16:00 USA Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Nov F % 06/01/16 20:00 USA U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from Dec. meeting 00. Jan 07/01/16 08:00 Tyskland Factory Orders MoM Nov 0.20% % 07/01/16 08:30 Sverige Swedbank/Silf PMI Services Dec /01/16 09:00 Danmark Unemployment Rate SA Nov % 07/01/16 11:00 EMU Economic Confidence Dec /01/16 11:00 EMU Unemployment Rate Nov 10.7% % 07/01/16 11:00 EMU Retail Sales MoM/YoY Nov 0.2%/2.0% %/2.5% 07/01/16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 02. Jan 07/01/16 14:45 USA Fed's Lacker speaks 00. Jan 07/01/16 20:15 USA Fed's Evans Speaks 00. Jan 07/01/16 /2016 Kina Foreign Reserves Dec $3450.0b -- $3438.3b 08/01/16 08:00 Tyskland Industrial Production SA MoM/YoY Nov 0.5%/0.4% %/0.0% 08/01/16 09:00 Danmark Industrial Production MoM Nov % 08/01/16 09:30 Sverige Riksbank Publishes Minutes 00. Jan 08/01/16 09:30 Sverige Industrial Production MoM/YoY Nov %/4.0% 08/01/16 10:00 Norge Industrial Production MoM/YoY Nov %/-3.0% 08/01/16 14:30 USA Unemployment Rate Dec 5.0% % 08/01/16 14:30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Dec 200k k 08/01/16 14:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings YoY Dec 2.8% % 08/01/16 16:00 USA Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Nov 0.0% % Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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5 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Johan Sahlström Chief Credit Strategist Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Macro Research Jan Häggström Chief Economist Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Janne Ronkanen Senior Analyst Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research Knut Anton Mork Senior Economist, Norway and China Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Per Wall Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC