Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 9. marts 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagen i dag er temmelig fattig på vigtige økonomiske begivenheder, og de fleste har nok alligevel øjnene rettet mod morgendagens vigtige rentemøde i ECB. Der kan dog være lidt fokus på realkreditansøgninger i USA, britisk fremstillingsproduktion og fransk erhvervstillid fra Bank of France. Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Negativ stemning på børserne i Europa og USA, og renterne falder mens JPY styrkes. Olieprisen (samt andre råvarepriser) falder tilbage. Til morgen fastholder Asien den negative stemning på børserne, herunder falder Kina-indeks falder tilbage oven på seks dages fremgang, mens US futures peger lidt op. USA: NFIB s tillidsindeks for de mindre virksomheder faldt i februar mere end ventet til 92,9 og ramte dermed det laveste niveau i to år. Faldet er foreneligt med det vi allerede så i ISM s serviceindeks i sidste uge, som jo også skuffede. Indekset blev især tynget af mindsket optimisme til salgsforventningerne samt nedtonede planer for ansættelser og investeringer. Derudover var det interessant at vurderingen af lønningerne aktuelt og fremover begge faldt markant, indikerende fortsat aftagende lønvækst inden for disse virksomheder (se figur). Det kan dog diskuteres hvor god denne indikator er til at forudsige udviklingen i de faktiske totale timelønninger. EMU: Som ventet viste en revidering af BNP-tallene for 4. kvartal ikke en ændring i væksten som blev fastholdt på 0,3% q/q. Vi modtog derudover flere detaljer om underkomponenterne, og de viste en lidt større opbremsning i privatforbrugsvæksten end ventet i forhold til 3. kvartal. Således ser det ud til at de positive effekter fra lavere oliepriser og lavere renter allerede fortonede sig her. Til gengæld var stigningen i de faste investeringer større end ventet, og det samme gjaldt væksten i det offentlige forbrug, hvilket til dels kan være relateret til flygtningeudfordringerne. Endelig var eksportvæksten uændret svag, antydende at effekten af den svagere EUR kun understøttede 1 halvdel af Tyskland: Industriproduktionen steg uventet kraftigt i januar med hele 3,3% m/m, hvilket var den største stigning siden Derudover blev produktionsfaldet i december nedrevideret markant. Det var desuden tydeligt, at det især er den indenlandske aktivitet som stimulerede produktionen, herunder steg især byggerelateret produktion samt produktion af forbrugsgoder. Økonomiministeriet kommenterede tallene som en meget god start på året, samt at en moderat bedring forventes for hele 1. kvartal. Der var dog nok tale om en vis positiv korrektion oven på de to svage slutmåneder af 2015, som også betød at produktionen havde udviklet sig svagere end ordreindgangen trods alt tilsagde. Ser vi fremad er der dog ikke noget i de svage industribarometre som tilsiger, at der er tale om en fundamental vending for tysk industri (se figur). Vi forventer da heller ikke tallene får den store betydning for udfaldet af ECB s rentemøde på torsdag, hvor der ventes en ny omgang stimulanstiltag. Schweiz: Forbrugerprisinflationen rettede sig i februar kraftigere end regnet med, da den steg til -0,8% y/y fra -1,3% y/y i januar. Det var ventet at der ville være en tydelig stigning som følge af årsbasiseffekten oven på CHF-styrkelsen sidste år, men der var ingen der ventede at årsinflationen ville stige til det højeste niveau i 13 måneder. Norge: Norges Banks regionale netværksrapport vist forventninger til at væksten fortsat vil være stagnerende det første halvår af 2016, samtidigt med at beskæftigelsen ventes at falde en smule. Ydermere fastholdt undersøgelsen en markant lav lønvækst på 2,4% i år. Dette var generelt lavere end Norges Banks egne skøn, og vi venter en rentenedsættelse samt lavere rentesti efter rentemødet i næste uge. USA: NFIB bekræfter moderation i lønvækst Kilde: Macrobond Tyskland: Ikke tegn på varig bedring i industrien Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 9. marts 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier Det ledende danske indeks OMXC20 CAP (- 1,57% / indeks 999,77) sluttede gårsdagens handel i negativt terræn på en dag med relativt få selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Offentliggørelsen af lidt skuffende kinesiske import- og eksporttal og en faldende oliepris var med til, at trygge stemningen på både det danske marked og på de øvrige europæiske børser. Dog hjalp det lidt på stemningen, at der blev offentliggjort bedre end ventede tal for den tyske industriproduktion. I toppen af det ledende danske indeks endte TDC (+0,52% / kurs 30,67) uden at der var nogen selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Aktien var mest af alt begunstiget af en tendens til søgen mod defensive aktier på bekostning af mere cykliske aktier som Pandora (-2,85% / kurs 834,50) og A.P. Møller-Mærsk (-4,19% / kurs 9.150,00). Uden for det ledende indeks var SAS (-4,10% / kurs 18,70) under pres efter flyselskabet rapporterede regnskab for 1. kvartal af regnskabsåret 2015/2016 som skuffede på toplinjen, men overraskede positivt på bundlinjen, som følge af en større end ventet besparelse på brændstof. Renter Obligationsrenterne faldt generelt i Europa fra dagens begyndelse tirsdag, hvilket især fik input fra en negativ stemning på aktiemarkederne fra morgenstunden under inspiration fra Asien. Det betød således mindre for tyske (og danske renter), at tysk industriproduktion overraskende steg i det højeste tempo siden 2009 i januar. BNP-tal for euroområdet viste, at væksten i 4. kvartal blev tynget af svagere privatforbrug, mens offentligt forbrug holdt hånden under væksten. Endelig steg renterne i Portugal endnu en dag på frygt for, at voksende gældsproblem kan hæmme ECB s muligheder for opkøb af obligationer her. USA s statsrenter fulgte med nedad, og et svagere end ventet NFIB-indeks i februar medvirkede sandsynligvis til rentefaldet. Derudover medvirkede tilbagefald i olieprisen nok også til rentefaldet. Valuta JPY blev styrket i forbindelse med den negative stemning på finansmarkederne, som understøttede investorernes efterspørgsel efter safe haven -valutaen. EUR udviklede sig rimeligt sidelæns mod USD. Det på trods af at tysk industriproduktion overraskede temmelig positivt, og USA s NFIB-indeks for sin del skuffede. EUR/USDkrydset satte sig dog sent tirsdag samt tirsdag morgen. GBP blev svækket en smule mod EUR, og lidt mere mod USD. NOK blev svækket på en svag netværksrapport fra Norges Bank, som peger på behovet for yderligere lempelser fra centralbankens side. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 9. marts 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Bavarian Nordic A/S 4. kvartal Brodrene Hartmann A/S 4. kvartal Torm A/S 4. kvartal Jeudan A/S 4. kvartal Veloxis Pharmaceuticals A/S 4. kvartal Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S 4. kvartal Mols-Linien A/S 4. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.3%/0.0% %/-2.2%(r) -0.1%/1.1% :00 Danmark Industrial Production (MoM) Jan -0.5% -2.0% 3.4% 2.8% :00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves Feb b :10 Kina Foreign Reserves Feb $3190.0b -- $3230.9b $3202.3b :00 Norge Ind Prod Manufacturing (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.1%/ %/ %/-7.7% -1.0%/-6.3% :30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Mar :00 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels :00 USA Fed's Fischer and Brainard Speaks :00 USA Consumer Credit Jan $16.500b -- $21.267b Kina Trade Balance Feb $51.00b -- $63.29b $32.59b Kina Exports (YoY) Feb -14.5% % -20.6% Kina Imports (YoY) Feb -12.0% % -13.8% :50 Japan GDP SA (QoQ) 4Q F -0.4% % -0.3% :00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook Feb :00 Tyskland Industrial Production SA (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.5%/-1.6% %/-1.3%(r) 3.3%/ :15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb -0.1%/-1.1% %/-1.3% 0.2%/-0.8% :00 EMU GDP SA (QoQ/YoY) 4Q P 0.3%/1.5% %/1.5% 0.3%/1.6% :00 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism Feb :30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Feb :30 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.2%/-0.7% %/-1.7% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 04. mar % Mar Kina New Yuan Loans CNY Feb b b Mar Kina Aggregate Financing CNY Feb b b :30 Kina CPI (YoY) Feb 1.8% % :30 Kina PPI (YoY) Feb -4.9% % :00 Tyskland Trade Balance Jan 17.0b b :00 Tyskland Exports/Imports SA (MoM) Jan 0.8%/0.8% %/-1.6% :00 Sverige PES Unemployment Rate Feb % :45 Frankrig Manufacturing Production (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.5%/1.3% %/0.5% :00 Danmark Current Account (Seasonally Adjusted) Jan b :00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Jan b :00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.8%/0.4% %/0.6% :00 Danmark CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Feb --/0.3% %/0.4% :00 Norge CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.4%/3.0% %/3.0% :00 Norge CPI Underlying (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.7%/3.1% -/3.1% -0.1%/3.0% :45 EMU ECB Main Refinancing Rate 10. mar 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% :45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate 10. mar -0.40% -0.40% -0.30% :45 EMU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 10. mar 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 05. mar 275k k :30 USA Continuing Claims 27. feb 2252k k :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06. mar :00 Tyskland CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Feb F 0.4%/-0.2% %/-0.2% :30 Sverige Average House Prices Feb m Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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5 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Johan Sahlström Chief Credit Strategist Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Lars Henriksson Foreign Exchange Strategist Macro Research Jan Häggström Chief Economist Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Janne Ronkanen Senior Analyst Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research Knut Anton Mork Senior Economist, Norway and China Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Per Wall Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC