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1 26. september 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Det tyske Ifo-indeks offentliggøres i dag. Det er vel den bedste ledende indikator for tysk økonomi, selvom den konkurrerer med PMI om titlen. Der ventes en flad udvikling på 106,2 i september oven på det skuffende fald i august. Vi forventer imidlertid en stigning til 107,0, hvilket ikke mindst er blevet indikeret af bedringen i det investorbaserede ZEW-indeks samt af en svagere EUR (jf. figur). Stigningen ændrer dog ikke på, at Ifo-indekset dermed vil pege på, at BNP-væksten vil geare lidt ned i 2. halvår. ECB-chef Draghi taler i Europaparlamentet i eftermiddag. Fra USA kommer tal for salget af nye boliger. Salget accelererede kraftigt i den forrige opgørelse for juli, og dermed brød salget ud af den seneste trend med blot en gradvis stigning. Der ventes dog en vis korrektion ned i augustsalget, men ikke mere end at der er tegn på, at efterspørgslen efter nye boliger tager til. Det bør i anden omgang støtte op om boliginvesteringerne, som skuffede i 2. kvartal. Resten af ugen byder på lidt blandede statistikker, hvor det på forhånd er svært at pege en enkelt ud som den vigtigste. Dog bør forbrugertilliden fra Conference Board fra USA (tirsdag) tiltrække en vis interesse. ikke mindst efter indekset de seneste måneder er trukket mere i vejret end forventet for i august at nå det højeste niveau i 11 måneder. Fra USA kommer også det personlige forbrug for august (fredag) og ordreindgangen på varige goder for august (onsdag). Endelig få vi lidt boligmarkedsstatistikker, hvoriblandt opgørelsen af verserende bolighandler (på eksisterende boliger) nok er den mest interessante. Fra euroområdet kommer der fredag arbejdsløshedstal og forbrugerpriser. Her forventer vi, at den årlige HICP-inflation vil forblive på 0,2% i september. Vi får torsdag EU-Kommissionens konjunkturbarometer, ESI, for september. Fredag og lørdag morgen kommer de to fremstillings-pmi for Kina, hvor vi venter større fremgang end konsensus. Der er uformelt OPEC-møde onsdag, hvor eventuelle produktionsbegrænsninger endnu en gang er på dagsordenen. Tysk Ifo-indeks bør trække lidt op igen Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De fleste aktiemarkeder faldt fredag efter de pæne stigninger onsdag/torsdag i kølvandet på Fed-mødet. Faldene er fortsat i den asiatiske handel her til morgen. Olieprisen faldt fredag eftermiddag efter Saudi-Arabien alligevel ikke så ud til at tro på en aftale om produktionsbegrænsninger på denne uges uformelle OPEC-møde. Obligationsrenterne lå nogenlunde fladt fredag, mens EUR styrkedes en anelse over for USD: USA: Flere Fed-folk var på talerstolen i fredags uden afgørende nyt. Mest interessant var det nok, at Kaplan udtalte, at Fed har råd til at være tålmodig med at stramme pengepolitikken. PMI for fremstillingssektoren fra Markit faldt til 51,4 i september fra 52,0 i august. Der var ventet uændret PMI. Euroområdet: Den sammensatte PMI-indikator (composite) faldt en anelse mere end ventet fra 52,9 i august til 52,6 i september. Hermed nåede indekset det laveste niveau i 20 måneder. Trods faldet peger PMI stadig på, at BNPvæksten i 3. kvartal vil ende nogenlunde på samme leje som i 2. kvartal, men det var jo på den anden side heller blive spor prangende (se figur). Det var service-pmi som trak ned i den sammensatte PMI-indikator, idet den indenlandske efterspørgsel svækkes af at medvinden fra blandt andet tidligere fald i energipriserne og i ledigheden nu aftager. Derimod steg fremstillings-pmi overraskende, måske fordi Storbritannien ser ud til at klare sig bedre gennem brexit end frygtet. Fransk sammensat PMI strøg forbi tysk for første gang siden Storbritannien: Den relativt nyudnævnte udenrigsminister Boris Johnson udtalte, at Storbritannien vil udløse EU s artikel 50 om udmeldelse fra EU allerede i begyndelsen af Han antydede samtidigt, at det kan tage mindre end to år før Storbritannien i praksis træder ud af EU. Det er den mest klare tidsplan udtalt af et medlem af den nye regering. Tidligere har premierminister Theresa May alene udtalt, at man ikke ville udløse artikel 50 allerede i år. Euroområdet: PMI indikerer flad BNP-vækst Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 26. september 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier Det ledende danske OMXC20 CAP (-1,45% / indeks 1.030,21) endte i et stort negativt territorium på ugens sidste handelsdag. Den negative stemning var primært drevet af en række svage nøgletal fra Europa i form af de foreløbige PMI tal for september måned. Det fik flere investorer til at tage gevinster hjem. I bunden af indekset endte Lundbeck (-15,31% / kurs 230,10) efter medicinalselskabet torsdag aften afslørede et meget skuffende fase III studie med lægemidlet Idalopirdin (til behandling af mild til moderat Alzheimers sygdom), hvor man ikke kunne påvise nogen signifikant effekt ved midlet. Det betød, at Handelsbanken sænkede deres anbefaling på aktien til Sælg (Reducer). A.P. Møller-Mærsk (-3,52% / kurs 9.880,00) endte lavere efter konglomeratet torsdag løftede sløret for selskabets strategiplan. Den blev så godt modtaget af investorerne, at flere valgte at tage noget gevinst hjem. Vestas (-1,16% / kurs 551,50) endte også lavere på trods af, at vindmølleproducenten kunne meddele, at de har modtaget en ordre på 214 megawatt, men åbner samtidig op for bestillinger på i alt 2000 megawatt til et gigantisk vindmølleprojekt. Renter Obligationsrenterne i Tyskland og Danmark lå nogenlunde fladt det meste af fredagen efter de store fald torsdag igangsat af Fed onsdag aften. Således kunne det ellers vigtige PMI-tal for euroområdet ikke påvirke markederne meget, sikkert fordi indekset kun faldt en anelse mere end ventet. Det var service- PMI som trak ned i den sammensatte PMIindikator, idet den indenlandske efterspørgsel svækkes af at medvinden fra blandt andet tidligere fald i energipriserne og i ledigheden nu aftager. Derimod steg fremstillings-pmi overraskende, måske fordi Storbritannien ser ud til at klare sig bedre gennem brexit end frygtet. De amerikanske obligationsrenter havde pilen svagt nedad fredag i takt med aktiekursfald, som sendte investorerne i retning mod de relativt sikre statsobligationer. Valuta EUR styrkedes lidt over for USD fredag uden den store anledning til bevægelsen. Således talte det lidt svagere end ventede udfald af PMI for euroområdet ikke for en EURstyrkelse. Måske USD-svækkelsen hang sammen med det samtidige fald i oleiprisen? JPY blev styrket lidt fredag og igen her til morgen over USD i takt med generelle aktiekursfald. Mindsket risikoappetit er normalt lig med en stærkere JPY på grund af JPY s sikker havn status. GBP svækkedes fredag over for både EUR og USD efter kommentarer fra tidligere London-borgmester og EU-modstander og nu udenrigsminister Boris Johnson om, at Storbritannien vil udløse EU s artikel 50 om udmeldelse fra EU allerede i begyndelsen af Han antydede samtidigt, at det kan tage mindre end to år før Storbritannien i praksis træder ud af EU. Det er den mest klare tidsplan udtalt af et medlem af den nye regering. Tidligere har premierminister Theresa May alene udtalt, at man ikke ville udløse artikel 50 allerede i år. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA USD/DKK Euroland EUR/DKK UK GBP/DKK Danmark CHF/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 26. september 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber D ato Selskab R egnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 26/09/16 10:00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Sep /09/16 16:00 EMU ECB's Draghi Speaks at European Parliament 26/09/16 16:00 USA New Home Sales Aug 597k k 26/09/16 18:00 Frankrig Jobseekers Net Change Aug /09/16 01:50 Japan BOJ Minutes of July Meeting 27/09/16 03:30 Kina Industrial Profits YoY Aug /09/16 10:00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Aug 4.9% % 27/09/16 12:00 UK CBI Retailing Reported Sales Sep /09/16 15:00 USA S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM/YoY Jul -0.05%/5.0% %/5.13% 27/09/16 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Sep P /09/16 16:00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Sep /09/16 16:00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Sep /09/16 08:00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Oct /09/16 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Sep /09/16 09:00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Sep /09/16 09:00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Sep /09/16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 23. Sep /09/16 14:30 USA Durable Goods Orders Aug P -1.1% % 28/09/16 14:30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Aug P 0.0% % 28/09/16 16:00 USA Fed Chair Yellen Testifies before House Panel on Bank Supervis 28/09/16 16:10 USA Fed's Bullard, Evans, George speaks 29/09/16 01:50 Japan Retail Sales MoM/YoY Aug -0.8%/-1.7% %/-0.2% 29/09/16 08:35 Japan BoJ's Kuroda Speaks 29/09/16 09:00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Aug 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 29/09/16 09:55 Tyskland Unemployment Claims Rate SA Sep 6.10% % 29/09/16 10:30 UK Net Consumer Credit Aug 1.4b b 29/09/16 11:00 EMU Economic Confidence Sep /09/16 14:00 Tyskland CPI MoM/YoY Sep P 0%/0.6% -- 0%/0.4% 29/09/16 14:30 USA Advance Goods Trade Balance Aug -$62.7b -- -$59.3b 29/09/16 14:30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 2Q T 1.3% % 29/09/16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 24. Sep k 29/09/16 14:50 USA Fed's Lockhart Speaks 29/09/16 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 25. Sep /09/16 16:00 USA Pending Home Sales MoM/YoY Aug -0.1%/ %/-2.20% 30/09/16 01:01 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Sep /09/16 01:30 Japan Jobless Rate Aug 3.0% % 30/09/16 01:30 Japan Overall Household Spending YoY Aug -2.2% % 30/09/16 01:30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Aug -0.4% % 30/09/16 01:50 Japan Industrial Production MoM/YoY Aug P 0.5%/3.4% %/-4.2% 30/09/16 03:45 Kina Caixin China PMI Mfg Sep /09/16 08:00 Tyskland Retail Sales MoM/YoY Aug -0.2%/1.9% %/-1.50% 30/09/16 08:00 UK Nationwide House PX MoM/YoY Sep 0.2%/5.0% %/5.6% 30/09/16 08:45 Frankrig CPI MoM/YoY Sep P %/0.2% 30/09/16 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Spending MoM/YoY Aug 0.3%/ %/0.5% 30/09/16 09:00 Danmark GDP SA QoQ/YoY 2Q F 0.5%/0.4% 0.5%/0.4% 0.5%/0.4% 30/09/16 10:00 Norge Unemployment Rate Sep 3.0% 2.9% 3.1% 30/09/16 10:30 UK GDP QoQ/YoY 2Q F 0.6%/2.2% %/2.2% 30/09/16 11:00 EMU Unemployment Rate Aug 10.0% 10.1% 10.1% 30/09/16 11:00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Sep 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 30/09/16 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Sep A 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 30/09/16 14:30 USA Personal Spending MoM Aug 0.2% % 30/09/16 14:30 USA PCE Core MoM/YoY Aug 0.2%/1.7% %/1.6% 30/09/16 15:45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager Sep /09/16 16:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Sep F /10/16 03:00 Kina Manufacturing PMI Sep Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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6 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Eldestrand Head of Debt Capital Markets Sweden Måns Niklasson Head of Corporate Loans and Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Lars Henriksson Foreign Exchange Strategist Macro Research Ann Öberg Chief Economist Jimmy Boumediene Head of Forecasting Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman E. Europe, Emerging Markets, Japan Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Janne Ronkanen Senior Analyst Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research, Norway; UK Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Senior Economist, Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Jaan Kivilo Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC