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1 Danmarks Miljøundersøgelser Miljøministeriet Velfærdsøkonomiske forvridningsomkostninger ved finansiering af offentlige projekter Faglig rapport fra DMU, nr. 496

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3 Danmarks Miljøundersøgelser Miljø- og Energiministeriet Velfærdsøkonomiske forvridningsomkostninger ved finansiering af offentlige projekter Faglig rapport fra DMU, nr Flemming Møller Dorthe Bjerrum Jensen

4 Datablad Titel: Forfattere: Afdeling: Velfærdsøkonomiske forvridningsomkostninger ved finansiering af offentlige projekter Flemming Møller og Dorthe Bjerrum Jensen Afdeling for Systemanalyse Serietitel og nummer: Faglig rapport fra DMU nr. 496 Udgiver: URL: Danmarks Miljøundersøgelser Miljøministeriet Udgivelsestidspunkt: Juni 2004 Redaktionen afsluttet: Juni 2004 Faglig kommentering: Finansiel støtte: Bedes citeret: Hanne Bach 1, Lisbeth Strandmark 2, Vibeke Østergaard 2, Blatt Bendtsen 2, Robert Heidemann 2, Mette Larsen 3, Thomas Thomsen 3, Peter Trier 3, Jens Holger Helbo Hansen 4, Kåre lemmesen 5, Anders Larsen 6, Jan V. Hansen 7, Niels Buus Kristensen 8, Anders Due Madsen 9 1) Danmarks Miljøundersøgelser, 2) Miljøstyrelsen, 3) Energistyrelsen, 4) Skatteministeriet, 5) Finansministeriet, 6) Amternes og Kommunernes Forskningsinstitut, 7) Det Økonomiske Råds Sekretariat, 8) OWIonsult, 9) DREAM, Miljøstyrelsen Møller, F. & Jensen, D.B. 2004: Velfærdsøkonomiske forvridningsomkostninger ved finansiering af offentlige projekter. Danmarks Miljøundersøgelser. 138 s. Faglig rapport fra DMU nr Gengivelse tilladt med tydelig kildeangivelse. Sammenfatning: Rapporten anbefaler, at finansieringsspørgsmålet inddrages i velfærdsøkonomiske projektvurderinger. Efter en vurdering af projektets direkte allokeringsmæssige fordele og ulemper samt en vurdering af incitamentet til at gennemføre projektet, anbefales det således at vurdere projektets rentabilitet, såfremt omkostningerne multipliceres med en generel omkostningsfaktor på 1,2. Såfremt fordelene ikke kan dække et sådant forvridningstab, analyseres det, om en anden finansieringskilde (med et mindre forvridningstab) vil være relevant i forhold til det pågældende projekt. Rapporten foretager endvidere en grundig teoretisk analyse af forvridningstab ved skatter og afgifter, og der opstilles en række formler herfor. Herefter gennemføres en række beregninger for forvridningstabets størrelse ved en stigning i moms, bundskat og energiafgift samt en reduktion i dagpengene. Endelig diskuteres problemstillingen i forhold til indførelsen af O 2 -kvoter. Emneord: Miljøøkonomi, projektvurdering, cost benefit analyse, skatteforvridningstab, O 2 - kvoter Layout: Korrektur: Ann-Katrine Holme hristoffersen Hanne Bach & Ann-Katrine Holme hristoffersen ISBN: ISSN (elektronisk): Sideantal: 138 Internetversion: Købes i boghandelen eller hos: Rapporten findes kun i elektronisk format på DMU s hjemmeside Miljøministeriet Frontlinien Rentemestervej København NV Tlf.:

5 Indhold Forord 7 English summary: onclusion incorporating tax dead-weight loss in project evaluation 8 Dead-weight loss as a result of direct and indirect tax financing terminology and definitions 8 International use of the tax dead-weight loss 10 Proposal for incorporating the dead-weight loss in project evaluations 12 Stage 1: Basic welfare economic project evaluation 13 Stage 2: Analysis of the incentive structure 13 Stage 3: Analysis of funding possibilities 14 Stage 4: omparison with alternative project possibilities 14 The size of the general tax distortion factor 15 The connection between the tax distortion factor and the net tax factor 15 1 Indledning 17 2 Sammenfatning: Konklusion indarbejdelse af skatteforvridningstabet i projektvurderinger Forvridningstab ved anvendelse af skatter og afgifter - terminologi og definitioner International anvendelse af skatteforvridningstabet Forslag til indarbejdelse af forvridningstabet i projektvurderinger Trin 1: Basal velfærdsøkonomisk projektvurdering Trin 2: Analyse af incitamentstruktur Trin 3: Analyse af finansieringsmuligheder Trin 4: Sammenligning med alternative projektmuligheder Den generelle forvridningsfaktors størrelse Sammenhængen mellem forvridningsfaktoren og netto-afgiftsfaktoren 27 3 Baggrunden for inddragelse af forvridningstabet - problemformuleringen Den basale velfærdsøkonomiske analyse af projekter Spørgsmålet om institutionel placering og finansiering Projekt i privat eller halvoffentligt regi - markedsomsatte ydelser Projekt i offentligt regi - ikke-markedsomsatte ydelser Problemformuleringen i relation til projekter i offentligt regi Indirekte provenutab samt skatte- og afgifts-omlægninger Opsummering og konklusion 38 4 Finansieringsbehovet og offentlige finansieringsmuligheder Opgørelse af nettofinansieringsbehovet Generelle opgørelsesprincipper Midlertidig offentlig finansiering Opsummering på opgørelsen af nettofinansieringsbehovet Offentlige finansieringsmuligheder Rammer for offentlig afholdelse af udgifter Finansieringsmuligheder ved reduktion af offentlige udgifter 46

6 4.2.3 Rammer for offentlige indtægtsmuligheder Finansieringsmuligheder gennem forøgelse af de offentlige indtægter Opsummering på finansieringsmulighederne Opsummering og konklusion 56 5 Forvridningstabet ved indkomstskat og afgift Marginal costs of public funds (MPF) Equivalent variation, compensation variation og consumers surplus Differentialanalyser og balancerede budgetanalyser Omkostningsfaktoren ved en indkomstskat Skatteministeriets MPF-formel Mayshars formel for MPF Fortolkning af Mayshars MPF-formel Omkostningsfaktoren ved ændring af en indkomstoverførsel Omkostningsfaktoren ved indførelse eller ændring af en afgift Beregning af forvridningstabet ud fra oplysning om den pris- og mængdeændring, som afgiftens indførelse afstedkommer Beregning af forvridningstabet ud fra det beregnede provenu før og efter forbrugernes adfærdstilpasning til afgiften Beregning af forvridningstabet ud fra kendskab til efterspørgselselasticiteten og værdien af den samlede efterspørgsel før afgiftens indførelse Beregning af forvridningstabet ud fra kendskab til efterspørgsels- og udbudselasticiteten samt værdien af den samlede efterspørgsel før afgiftens indførelse MPF ved indførelse af en afgift Forvridningstab ved en ændring i en afgiftssats Sandmo s generelle analyse af forvridningstabet First best optimum Second best optimum Inoptimal skatte- og afgiftsstruktur Sammenfatning Forvridningsfaktoren (MPF - 1) og netto-afgiftsfaktoren NAF Konklusioner 96 Appendiks 4.1 Den ukompenserede og kompenserede arbejdsudbudselasticitet 98 Appendiks 4.2 Den virtuelle indkomst 99 6 Numerisk beregning af forvridningsfaktorens størrelse DREAM Beregninger med DREAM Grundscenarie og de fire finansieringsløsninger Opgørelsen af forvridningsfaktoren i DREAM Resultater af DREAM-beregningerne Moms Bundskat Energiafgift Dagpenge Opsummering på resultaterne af DREAM-beregningen Diskussion af DREAM-resultaterne Beregning af forvridningstabet, MEB Beregning af provenueffekterne Arbejdsudbudselasticiteten 113

7 6.4.4 Diskonteringsraten Forvridningsfaktorerne ved temporære projekter Overvejelser vedrørende statiske og dynamiske modeller Opsummering og konklusion ase: implementering af en kvoteordning Kyoto-protokollen, fleksible mekanismer og køb af O 2 -kvoter Kyoto-protokollen og metoder til reduktion af O 2 -udledningen Det europæiske kvotesystem Velfærdsøkonomisk forvridning ved en kvoteordning Kvoteordningens betydning for det offentliges indtægter og udgifter Regneeksempel på de velfærdsøkonomiske omkostninger ved en kvoteordning Konklusion 129 Referencer 130

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9 Forord Denne rapport er resultatet af et samarbejdsprojekt mellem Miljøstyrelsen og Danmarks Miljøundersøgelser. I tilknytning til projektet, der er udført af forskningsassistent Dorthe Bjerrum Jensen og seniorforsker Flemming Møller fra Danmarks Miljøundersøgelser, blev der nedsat en følgegruppe med følgende medlemmer: Fuldmægtig Lisbeth Strandmark, Miljøstyrelsen, Stab & Strategi (formand) Fuldmægtig Vibeke Østergaard, Miljøstyrelsen, Stab & Strategi Fuldmægtig Ulla Blatt Bendtsen, Miljøstyrelsen, Klima & Øststøtte Fuldmægtig Robert Heidemann, Miljøstyrelsen, Industri & Transport Fuldmægtig Mette Larsen, Energistyrelsen Fuldmægtig Thomas Thomsen, Energistyrelsen Fuldmægtig Peter Trier, Energistyrelsen hefkonsulent Jens Holger Helbo Hansen, Skatteministeriet hefkonsulent Kåre lemmesen, Finansministeriet Vicedirektør Anders Larsen, Amternes og Kommunernes Forskningsinstitut Kontorchef Jan V. Hansen, Det Økonomiske Råds Sekretariat Udviklingschef Niels Buus Kristensen, OWIonsult Medlemmerne af følgegruppen takkes for deres konstruktive kommentarer under de forskellige faser af rapportens tilblivelse. Ansvaret for dennes konklusioner og anbefalinger samt eventuelle fejl og mangler er dog alene forfatternes. Rapporten supplerer Miljøministeriets Samfundsøkonomisk vurdering af miljøprojekter (Møller et al. 2000) og indgår som led i Miljøministeriets forsknings- og udredningsarbejde vedrørende udviklingen af metoder til velfærdsøkonomisk projektvurdering. Roskilde, juni

10 English summary: onclusion incorporating tax deadweight loss in project evaluation This chapter gives a theoretic explanation of the welfare economic dead-weight loss when using direct and indirect taxes to finance public expenditures. oncurrently, the most important concepts will be defined. The second passage includes a short explanation of how the dead-weight loss is included in welfare economic analysis in other countries. The third passage presents our recommendations on how to include the dead-weight loss of tax financing in welfare economic project evaluation. Finally, the numeric calculations of the sizes of the tax distortion factor and the marginal cost of public funds are explained. Dead-weight loss as a result of direct and indirect tax financing terminology and definitions There are several theoretical explanations of why a dead-weight loss arises when a direct or indirect tax is imposed (Skatteministeriet 2002a, 2002b; Møller et al. 2000:206f.). The imposition of an indirect tax on a good has two types of effects for the consumers. Firstly, the initial consumption composition becomes more expensive. By choosing the same combination of the consumer goods it is necessary to make a certain reduction in the consumption of all goods because of the budget limitation. This effect is called the income effect because the real income is being reduced by an imposed indirect tax. Secondly, the good becomes more expensive compared to other goods that make up substitution possibilities. Therefore, it is likely that the consumers will buy relatively less of the tax-imposed good and more of the substitutes. This effect is called the substitution effect. The total effect of the imposed indirect tax is illustrated in Figure I. Because of the consumers declining demand curves the intermarginally consumed goods (i.e. the goods that are bought before the last marginal good) have more value to the consumers than the last bought-in good at the price P. The total advantage consumers surplus is illustrated by the triangle area A, B and below the demand curve, DD: 8

11 Price DD A B P + t P onsumption Q 1 Q 0 Figure I: hanges in the welfare of society (consumers surplus) when imposing an indirect tax Now, if a tax, t, is imposed the price on the good rises from P to P+t 1. Thus, the consumption declines to the new equilibrium, Q 1. The public sector receives area A in tax yield, which can be used to welfarecreating activities and the consumer surplus is now equal to area. Left over is the triangular area B, which the consumers loose and the public sector does not obtain in return. This change in consumers surplus makes up the dead-weight loss of taxation. The marginal cost of public funds (MPF) is used to estimate the real welfare economic costs of a project financed by taxes. MPF is defined as the sum of the welfare economic loss (area B, figure I) and the change in revenue (area A) divided by the change in revenue, A, i.e.: A + B MPF = = 1 + B A A When a project is financed by taxes, the total welfare economic costs (area A+B) can be calculated as the budget economic costs multiplied with the marginal cost of public funds (MPF). In this report, the welfare economic loss, the triangle loss (B), is called MEB (marginal excess burden) or the dead-weight loss. Finally, MPF-1 is called the tax distortion factor. In the terms from Figure A the tax distortion factor equals B/A. If a public project is financed by raising the income tax, this will likewise result in an income and a substitution effect. On the one hand, the real income per working hour for the individual employee decreases. Therefore, he will have to work more to achieve the same economic welfare level. On the other hand, one hour of work becomes less worth compared to one hour of leisure (because the net pay will be smaller). Thus, the incentive to work decreases. This is illustrated in Figure II. 1 The supply price on the good is assumed to be constant. The dead-weight loss can be illustrated in the same way, if the supply curve is increasing. 9

12 Gross wage DD A w 1 SS+t SS w 0 w(1-t) B D Hours of work L1 L0 Figure II: The change in the welfare of society by imposing an income tax The employees supply of labour is shown by the SS curve at varying gross incomes. The employers demand for labour is shown by the DD curve. The areas A, B, and D make up the welfare economic surplus in the equilibrium in L 0. By imposing an income tax the supply curve SS shifts upwards to SS+t because the employees are expected to demand the same net pay for their work. The demand curve DD will not change. The new equilibrium point, L 1, is reached at a higher gross income level, but at a lower production level. As a consequence of imposing an income tax there will be a difference between the price, which the employer pays (gross wages) and the price, which the employee receives (net pay after tax). This difference the tax wedge or triangle loss causes a distortion of the economic activity, so that the marginal value productivity from labour does not as in optimum equal the employees marginal benefit of labour. The dead-weight loss is illustrated by area D. The tax distortion factor (MPF-1) equals the ratio between the dead-weight loss and the tax, i.e. D/B. In both cases, the acquisition of the direct and indirect tax, which is necessary in order to finance a certain project, causes distortions in the economy compared to the optimal production and consumption composition. The Danish Ministry of Finance therefore argues that public funding of a project always causes a welfare economic loss. The Ministry estimates that the dead-weight loss amounts to 20 percent of the direct and indirect budget economic expenses of a project. Thus, the Ministry assumes the general marginal cost of public funding to be 1.2. International use of the tax dead-weight loss When considering the inclusion of the dead-weight loss in connection with welfare economic analyses in Denmark, it is relevant to examine what is being done in other countries, with whom we usually compare ourselves. In 2002, the Danish Ministry of Transport issued the report Brug af Samfundsøkonomiske Metoder i Udvalgte Lande (Trafikministeriet/OWI 2002). The report mentions how the deadweight loss from public funding of projects is handled in a number of 10

13 countries. The subject is also mentioned very briefly in the guidelines from the Danish Ministry of Finance (Finansministeriet, 1999). In connection with cost-benefit analyses in Norway the Norwegian Ministry of Finance (Finansdepartementet) recommends that public tax-funded expenses are increased with a tax dead-weight loss of 20 per cent (Finansministeriet 1999:75f; NOU 1997; NOU 1998). A number of empirical analyses in this field has been made including analyses of the differences between the marginal tax distortion factor at various kinds of funding forms (the MSG model). 2 In 1999, the Swedish Institute for Transport and ommunications Analysis (SIKA) an institute under the Swedish Ministry of Industry, Employment and ommunication issued a guide for costbenefit analyses in the transport sector. This guide - which was made after a large project (ASEK) concerning socio-economic analytical methods in which also the Swedish Ministry of Finance was involved recommends the use of two different tax factors (SIKA 1999:39ff., SIKA 2002). Tax factor I takes into consideration that resources that are taken into use have a value determined by the amount, which the consumers are willing to pay for the lost consumption goods and has the value Thus, the factor is added to the costs in factor prices in order to consider the value (expressed as willingness to pay for consumer goods) that the production factors alternatively could have created. (SIKA 1999; Trafikministeriet/OWI 2002). This corresponds to the Danish net tax factor, which is 1.17 (Møller et al. 2000; Finansministeriet 1999). Tax factor II, which has a value of 1.30 takes into consideration that the increase in the tax revenues marginally gives rise to losses in welfare e.g. through individuals not working in their most effective occupations. This factor equals the Danish marginal cost of public funds, MPF. When both Swedish tax factors are included in a calculation the sum, i.e. 1.53, is used. The correlation between the net tax factor and the tax distortion factor is discussed in chapter 4. A certain disagreement exists in the USA whether or not and under which circumstances a tax distortion factor should be included in connection with cost-benefit analyses of public projects. The US Environmental Protection Agency debates the question of social costs from tax distortion effects in their cost-benefit analysis of the lean Air Act (EPA, 1999:29). The conclusion is that it is too unreliable to include such costs because the amount is influenced by a very large number of factors. Hence, an analysis of the direct welfare economic costs is maintained when implementing the law. In 1996, the US Office of Management and Budget (OMB) issued a general recommendation regarding economic analyses of federal regulation (OMB 1996). The question of the inclusion of the tax deadweight loss is not mentioned here. However, in an earlier publication 2 It is seen that a change in the transfer payments creates the lowest distortion while a change in the income taxation creates the highest. The distortion caused by a change in the value-added tax (VAT) is placed in the middle. 11

14 also from EPA the tax dead-weight loss is mentioned and is set at 25 per cent of a project s net costs. Recent studies of the U.S. tax system suggest a range of values for the marginal excess burden (MEB), of which a reasonable estimate is 25 cents per dollar of revenue (OMB 1992, item 11). In the report, a range of exceptions of when the dead-weight loss must be included in the welfare economic analysis is pointed out. Where specific information clearly suggests that the excess burden is lower (or higher) than 25 percent, analyses may use a different figure. When a different figure is used, an explanation should be provided for it. An example of such an exception is an investment funded by user charges that function like market prices; in this case, the excess burden would be zero. Another example would be a project that provides both cost savings to the Federal Government and external social benefits. If it is possible to make a quantitative determination of the portion of this project's costs that give rise to Federal savings, that portion of the costs may be exempted from multiplication by the factor of The most interesting thing is that the OMB does not add the tax deadweight loss to user-funded activities. A similar method can be found in the previously mentioned Swedish guide: In municipal management with large shares of user funding this should be considered by not applying tax factor II [1.30] on those parts of the funding covered by user payments (SIKA 1999:41). However, the Norwegian method corresponds to a higher degree with the Danish recommendation. It appears from a report from the Norwegian highway authority that the enlargement of the infrastructure will be a public undertaking that will be tax funded and thus, it is relevant to use a shadow price that includes the socioeconomic effects of this funding method. This applies even if parts of the funding come from user fees as the socio-economic effects of user fees in many ways resemble the effect from general taxation. Hence, in the /B calculation to all investments in infrastructure are added a tax distortion effect (Statens Vegvesen Akershus et al. 2001:168). According to the report from the Ministry of Transport the tax deadweight loss is not used in countries such as Great Britain, Finland, Germany, France and Holland (Trafikministeriet/OWI 2002:10). Thus, the overall picture is that there is a certain extent of homogeneity in the recommendations from the Scandinavian countries regarding the inclusion of a dead-weight loss in welfare economic assessments of public funded projects. Outside Scandinavia, however, only the US uses an analogous method. Proposal for incorporating the dead-weight loss in project evaluations The aim of this project is, among others, to draw up guidelines for the inclusion of a tax dead-weight loss in welfare economic analyses. From a welfare economic perspective it is beneficial to carry through a public funded project if the following is valid: 12

15 ( MPF 1) IP MPF 0 B U > Where B = welfare economic benefits of the project. Summed up in accounting prices = direct and indirect allocation-related welfare economic costs of the project. These are made up in accounting prices (using the net tax factor) U = the project s net funding requirements, i.e. the total direct net costs from the implementation of the project. These expenses are the result of the direct flows of money attached to the project and they are expressed in budget economic prices. MPF= the marginal cost of public funds, which expresses the total welfare economic costs per DKK spend at the type of public funding used for the project in question. In the formula, 1 is deducted from MPF because the costs of the project have already been included in. MPF-1 = the tax distortion factor, which expresses the dead-weight loss per DKK spend. When U equals the net funding requirements in a concrete project the dead-weight loss, MEB, can be calculated as U + MEB MEB = U ( MPF 1) as = MPF U IP = indirect revenue effects that arise as a result of the project. On the basis of the above-mentioned formula it is recommended to use the following stepwise procedure in welfare economic project evaluations: Stage 1: Basic welfare economic project evaluation By using the welfare economic accounting prices it is analysed whether the reallocation caused by the project of the resources of society represents a welfare economic surplus, B. The analysis is carried out after completely homogeneous principles, whether or not the analysis concerns a private, a semi-public or a public project (see e.g. Møller et al. 2000). The question of funding is not included at this stage. Focus is entirely on the welfare economic consequences of using the resources in a different manner than hitherto. Stage 2: Analysis of the incentive structure a. Private project If the project is welfare economic profitable but not budget economic profitable or vice versa it should be considered, which incentives that respectively lead to accomplishment and relinquishment of the project. Directives and bans do not give rise to further welfare economic consequences, whereas the use of economic measures could have such consequences by directly distorting the relative prices and by indirectly having revenue effects that must be funded. These welfare economic consequences are analysed after the same methods as other distortion effects and revenue effects, cf. stage 3. b. Semi-public project In this case, the same considerations apply as for a private project. The possibilities to order or prevent a project directly, are, however, 13

16 considered to be better. If the project is beneficial in the welfare economic sense but disadvantageous in the budget economic sense it gives rise to a funding problem equivalent to a public project, cf. stage 3. c. Public project The problem of incentive is probably modest in this case because projects can be carried out or hindered directly in a political or administrative way. On the other hand, it must usually be considered how the project can be funded, cf. stage 3. Stage 3: Analysis of funding possibilities a. A statement of direct net funding requirements, U, and indirect revenue effects, IP, is carried out (see chapter 3). b. It is analysed whether the project s basic welfare economic net surplus is sufficient to cover a general dead-weight loss. As for the direct net funding requirements the Ministry of Finance calculates the deadweight loss on the basis of a general tax distortion factor (MPF-1) set at 0.2. The financial loss connected with the indirect revenue effects is calculated on the basis of a general marginal cost of public funds, MPF, which likewise is fixed at 1.2 by the Ministry of Finance. If the basic welfare economic net surplus of the project is capable of covering these losses it will be recommended to go through with the project. The tax distortion factor must be multiplied with the net funding requirement, whether this is positive or negative. The same applies for the indirect revenue effects. c. If the project represents a welfare economic advantageous reallocation of the resources but cannot cover the general dead-weight loss from direct or indirect tax funding this should not necessarily lead to a final rejection of the project. Instead, a further funding analysis is performed with the intention of possibly finding a more suitable funding form than the general one (including user fee and transfer of funds from other public expenditures). Such an analysis can only be carried out for specific cases. Stage 4: omparison with alternative project possibilities If suggestions are put forward to transfer means from one publicly funded project to another both a basic project evaluation and a funding analysis (stage 1 to 3) must be carried out for the existing as well as the suggested project. After this, it is possible to estimate whether the suggested reallocation of resources and possible changes in the funding form will result in a welfare economic surplus. Of course, there are limits to the extension of the recommended funding analysis. Hence, it is not possible to perform an analysis of the optimality of the entire public budget. The purpose of the funding analysis is solely to develop further the welfare economic analysis in those cases where a public project basically is welfare economic beneficial, but cannot cover the general dead-weight loss assumed by the Ministry of Finance. Thus, the advantages and disadvantages of the most obvious funding possibilities should be examined and evalua- 14

17 ted. The project valuation should not be reduced to a mere approval mechanism for concrete projects but should be considered as an information creation process in which the many possibilities for improving the welfare are being analysed including also alternative funding forms and internal reallocations of funds within the public sector. The size of the general tax distortion factor The size of the MPF and the tax distortion factor (MPF-1) can be determined on the basis of static, partial calculations (chapter 4) as well as dynamic, general analyses (chapter 5). The dynamic, general analyses with the DREAM model show relatively similar values for the tax distortion factor for VAT and base tax approximately 0.21 but at the same time also show that the tax distortion factors for two other funding possibilities energy tax (0.30) and daily subsistence allowance (- 0.84) differ markedly from this. At the same time, it can be concluded that four essential conditions are of importance to the calculation of the tax distortion factors on DREAM. That includes the following:! the assumptions concerning the use of the revenue from the funding initiative! the method which is used to calculate the project expenses! the choice of labour supply elasticity! the choice of discount rate A comparison with tax distortion factors calculated on basis of static, partial analyses shows that the results from these diverge from the results of dynamic, general analyses and also that the latter apparently result in higher values for the tax distortion factors. Although it, for practical reasons, is recommended to use one fixed, general tax distortion factor, which can be used as benchmark in concrete funding analyses, the above-mentioned results show that this method can be questioned. The numerically supported differences in the tax distortion factors confirm that society is not in a second best optimum in which only one tax distortion factor exists. Instead, society is in a less than optimal situation in which the tax distortion factor depends on the individual indirect or direct type of tax. This means, first of all, that it is important to emphasise which form of financing the general tax distortion factor is based on when this factor is used to estimate the costs of public funded projects. Secondly, it is relevant to carry through a sensitivity analysis of the costs related to alternative funding of the expenses of the project, e.g. by means of user fees. The connection between the tax distortion factor and the net tax factor If the direct and indirect financing requirement, U, of a public project solely is a result of the direct and indirect use of factors of production and produced production goods, then the financing requirement 15

18 equals the accounting prices value,, of the direct consumption of factors of production and produced production goods. Thus, one has = prod.fact. PF NAF + PF (ind. fact.consumption) NAF + PF (1 + t ) NAF = prod.good 1 prod.good 2 U where prod.fact. =factors of production whose accounting prices, P F! NAF, are fixed on the basis of their factor price P F prod.good 1 =the produced production goods whose accounting prices, P F, are calculated on the basis of the costs of producing the goods P F! (indirect factor consumption)! NAF (made up in accounting prices) prod.good 2 =the produced production goods whose accounting prices, P F! (1+t)! NAF, are fixed on the basis of their market prices including non-refundable indirect taxes, P F! (1 + t) where t equals the non-refundable indirect taxes. NAF = general net tax factor (cf. Møller et al. 2000:100f.) The total welfare economic costs d W of implementing and funding the project can be calculated as d W = + U (MPF 1) MPF, if = U Thus, where = U the basic welfare economic costs of the project,, are multiplied with the marginal cost of public funds MPF in order to reach the total welfare economic costs. In the cases where the direct and indirect funding needs of the project cannot be assumed to correspond to the basic welfare economic costs of the project i.e. U it is necessary to calculate d W = + U! (MPF - 1). This is examined in passage

19 1 Indledning Når et offentligt finansieret projekt f.eks. på miljøområdet ønskes iværksat, er det væsentligt at gøre sig klart, hvilke velfærdsøkonomiske fordele og ulemper projektet giver anledning til. Her tænkes ikke alene på de velfærdsøkonomiske konsekvenser af dets direkte og indirekte brug af knappe produktionsfaktorer og råstoffer, men også på de eventuelle velfærdsøkonomiske konsekvenser ved at finansiere projektets nettoudgifter. Vurderingen af de finansieringsrelaterede velfærdsøkonomiske konsekvenser kræver! en opgørelse af finansieringsbehovet! en beregning af de velfærdsøkonomiske omkostninger ved en given finansieringsform f.eks. stigning i bundskatten! en række overvejelser over hvilken finansieringsform der vil være mest hensigtsmæssig dvs. hvilken finansieringsform, der giver anledning til de færreste velfærdsøkonomiske omkostninger for samfundet. Størstedelen af al offentlig finansiering medfører velfærdsøkonomiske omkostninger ud over den direkte nettoudgift ved det pågældende projekt. Dette skyldes, at det offentliges muligheder for at oppebære indtægter skatte- og afgiftsopkrævning giver anledning til forskellige forvridninger i samfundsøkonomien. Disse forvridninger skyldes, at de pågældende finansieringsformer giver de økonomiske aktører incitamenter til ikke at vælge en velfærdsøkonomisk set optimal allokering af samfundets produktionsfaktorer og råstoffer. De direkte og indirekte nettoudgifter ved at gennemføre et offentligt projekt er derfor kun delelementer af de reelle velfærdsøkonomiske omkostninger for samfundet ved at finansiere projektet. Det er disse reelle velfærdsøkonomiske omkostninger ved offentlig finansiering af projekter, der er omdrejningspunktet for denne rapport. Rapporten bygger videre på den velfærdsøkonomiske analysemetode, som blev anbefalet i Samfundsøkonomisk vurdering af miljøprojekter, hvor spørgsmålet om velfærdsøkonomiske forvridninger ved offentlig finansiering imidlertid ikke berøres (Møller et al. 2000). I Finansministeriets Vejledning i udarbejdelse af samfundsøkonomiske konsekvensvurderinger anbefales det at inddrage et forvridningstab på 20% af projektets finansieringsbehov som udtryk for de velfærdsøkonomiske finansieringsomkostninger ved offentligt finansierede projekter (Finansministeriet 1999). Forvridningsfaktoren på 0,2 har været anvendt i flere cost/benefit- og cost/effectiveness-analyser (Finansministeriet et al. 2001; Søbygaard 2002). Valget af en så relativt høj forvridningsfaktor har ofte væsentlig betydning for, om et projekt betragtes som velfærdsøkonomisk. Det er derfor vigtigt både at dokumentere rimeligheden af at inddrage forvridningstabet i analysen og af at vælge en forvridningsfaktor på 0,2. Formålet med indeværende projekt er at fremlægge en teoretisk og numerisk redegørelse for de velfærdsøkonomiske forvridningstab ved offentlig finansiering af projekter og herunder at vurdere, om det 17

20 altid er rimeligt at anvende en forvridningsfaktor på 0,2, når de reelle velfærdsøkonomiske omkostninger ved et offentligt projekt skal estimeres. Rapporten er opbygget på følgende måde: Kapitel 1 indeholder en grundig opsummering af de øvrige kapitler og af konklusionerne i disse. Kapitlet, som også indeholder en kort international sammenligning af, hvorledes skatteforvridningstabet inddrages i velfærdsøkonomiske analyser i andre lande, kan læses alene. De øvrige kapitler er for den mere teknisk interesserede læser. Kapitel 2 indeholder en diskussion af baggrunden for inddragelsen af forvridningstabet i projektvurderingen og af spørgsmålet om, hvordan inddragelsen bliver konsistent med vurderingens problemformulering. I kapitel 3 beskrives, hvordan finansieringsbehovet ved et projekt skal beregnes. Dernæst følger en gennemgang af den offentlige sektors forskellige finansieringsmuligheder, deres relative betydning og mulige velfærdsøkonomiske forvridningseffekt. Kapitel 4 indeholder den teoretiske forklaring på de velfærdsøkonomiske forvridningseffekter ved skatter og afgifter. Endvidere gennemgås hhv. formler for de samlede og de marginale forvridningsomkostninger. Med udgangspunkt i Mayshars formel for forvridningsomkostningerne ved en indkomstskat redegøres desuden for de parametre, som har betydning for omkostningernes størrelse (arbejdsudbudselasticiteten m.v.). Endelig beskrives, hvorledes forvridningsfaktoren og netto-afgiftsfaktoren bør kombineres ved beregningen af projektets velfærdsøkonomiske omkostninger. I kapitel 5 fremlægges resultaterne af en numerisk analyse af forskellige finansieringsmuligheders velfærdsøkonomiske forvridningstab. Denne analyse baseres på simuleringer med den intertemporale, generelle ligevægtsmodel DREAM. Endelig indeholder kapitel 6 en caseanalyse vedrørende inddragelsen af skatteforvridningstabet i analyser af de velfærdsøkonomiske omkostninger ved en kvoteordning for O 2. 18

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