Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 23. september 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Med hensyn til nøgletallene bliver dagens vigtigste sandsynligvis PMI-indekset for september i euroområdet. Vi forventer, at flash Composite PMI-indekset i september vil falde til 53,5 fra tidligere 54,3. At PMI-indekset bør være toppet er blevet foreslået af de seneste måneders fald i investorbarometrene såsom Sentix og ZEW. Endvidere er det usandsynligt, at specielt fremstillingssektoren i euroområdet kan isolere sig fra de mere afdæmpede globale tendenser, herunder observeret i USA og igen i morges i Kina (jf. dagens figur). Vi har fået nogle divergerende signaler fra servicesektoren. ECFIN s detailtillid er steget yderligere, mens forbrugertilliden har tabt terræn i de seneste fem måneder, men dog fortsat opretholder et ok robust niveau. Derudover har arbejdsløsheden fortsat sin faldende tendens, og de seneste olieprisfald over sommeren bør fortsat yde støtte til husholdningernes efterspørgsel. På trods af den forventede nedgang i PMI i september peger det gennemsnitlige niveau i 3. kvartal på en stabil BNPvækst her. Vi får også Markits PMI-indeks for fremstillingssektoren i USA i september. Det ventes rimelig stabil omkring 53,0 oven på de seneste måneders fald, som har været gengivet af faldet i det typisk mere anerkendte ISM-indeks. Tillidsindekset understøttes af den mindre USD-svækkelse de seneste to måneder. På den anden side har vi modtaget lidt overraskende svage regionale fremstillingsindeks fra distriktscentralbankerne i New York og Philadelphia i september, hvorfor vi ser en risiko på nedsiden. Derudover får vi opgørelsen af realkreditansøgninger i USA for sidste uge, og i euroområdet er der en smule fokus på Bruxelles, hvor ECB-chef Mario Draghi skal i sin kvartalsvise høring i Europaparlamentet. Kan EUR-PMI isolere sig fra globale fald? Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Negativ stemning på aktiemarkederne (herunder især trukket ned af bilsektoren) afløser mandagens stigning et zig-zag mønster der meget vel også skyldes fortsat forvirring oven på Fed-rentemødet i sidste uge. Renterne følger med ned og JPY styrkes. Det skuffende Kina-PMI medvirker til, at den negative stemning fortsætter på Asien-børserne. USA: FHFA s boligprisindeks steg mere end ventet med 0,6% m/m i juli. Det var den største prisfremgang i fem måneder. Richmond Fed s regionale fremstillingsindeks skuffede på linje med andre regionale septemberindeks - da det faldt til det laveste niveau siden januar Kina: Markit s PMI-fremstillingsindeks (Caixin) faldt fra 47,3 i august til 47,0 i september. Det er tredje måned i træk med fald, og indekset er nu på det laveste niveau siden Det vil nok øge frygten for en hård landing i Kina og derfor føre til yderligere aktiekursfald globalt. Både vi og konsensus havde ventet en lille stigning i dagens PMI, hvilket ville have været på linje med vores vurdering om, at frygten for et umiddelbart kollaps af Kinas økonomi virker overdreven på trods af de mange risikofaktorer for økonomien på lidt længere sigt. Faldet i PMI var især drevet af fald i underkomponenterne for produktionen og nye ordrer. Også indekset for nye eksportordrer faldt. Sidstnævnte indikerer, at efterspørgslen fra resten af verdensøkonomien efter kinesisk eksport er en af årsagerne til de dårlige takter i kinesisk industri. Den seneste tid har PMI haltet lidt efter faktisk industriproduktion, og produktionen (sammen med andre indikatorer) viser aktuelt et knapt så negativt billede. Så spørgsmålet er hvor godt PMI-indekset virker for tiden? Den indenlandske efterspørgsel burde komme sig gradvist i de kommende måneder i takt med at de mange pengepolitiske lempelser får effekt og boligmarkedet retter sig. Euroområdet: Forbrugertilliden faldt en smule mere end ventet til -7,1 i september fra -6,9 i august. Faldet er dog ikke større end at forbrugertilliden må siges at have stabilt de seneste tre måneder oven på de forrige fire måneders faldende tendens (se figur). Tillidsniveauet er fortsat fornuftig understøttet af fremgang på arbejdsmarkedet samt lave energipriser, og det er således især privatforbruget som ventes fortsat at skulle drive det beskedne opsving i euroområdet resten af året. Danmark: Detailsalget faldt i august med 0,1% m/m, hvilket dog skete efter oprevideringer af salget i juni og juli. Således er der tegn på at privatforbrugsvæksten viser sig fra en mere positiv side i 3. kvartal. At privatforbrugsvæksten ikke nødvendigvis fortsætter i vejret blev dog samtidigt antydet af et uventet stort fald i forbrugertilliden i september til det laveste niveau i 1½ år. EUR-forbrugertillid fortsat på ok niveau Kina-PMI god indikator for reel aktivitet? For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 23. september 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-2,25% / indeks 961,92) sluttede på linje med de øvrige europæiske aktieindeks med større fald. Således endte samtlige C20 aktier dagen i negativt terræn. Den negative stemning skyldes især frygt for aftagende global vækst, samt Volkswagens svindelsag der især pressede de europæiske bilaktier. I bunden af indekset endte blandt andet Novo Nordisk (-3,33% / kurs 365,50) og Genmab (-1,81% / kurs 650,00) der ligesom den øvrige del af de europæiske og amerikanske medicinalaktier var ramt af, at den amerikanske præsident kandidat Hillary Clinton i en Twitter besked gjorde opmærksom på, at hun ville lave en plan der skal reducere de høje priser på receptpligtig medicin i USA. FLSmidth (-2,79% / kurs 223,40) havde endnu en dårlig dag på en dag hvor finanshuset Credit Suisse sænkede deres forventninger til råvareefterspørgslen fra Kina, hvilket bidragede til større kursfald blandt en lang række større mineaktier. Renter Udviklingen på rentemarkederne blev igen dikteret af den generelle stemning på finansmarkederne. Således blev der tale om et rentefald, som afspejlede kursdykket på aktiemarkederne. Dermed faldt tyske og danske renter mere end de tilsvarende amerikanske. Blandt nøgletallene var der heller ikke meget der kunne holde hånden under renterne. Euroområdets forbrugertillid viste et nyt fald (om end lille), og i USA fik vi endnu et regionalt tegn på (fra Richmond Fed), at industrien fortsat er i gang med en opbremsning i væksten. Til morgen modtog vi et nyt skuffende fald i Kina PMI-indeks for fremstillingssektoren, hvilket trækker ned i Asienbørserne. Det peger på, at renterne ikke umiddelbart skal rette sig fra morgenstunden. Valuta JPY blev styrket som følge af at generelt øget risikoaversion vendte tilbage til finansmarkederne tirsdag. Styrkelsen fik et ekstra tryk onsdag morgen i forbindelse med offentliggørelsen af et ny skuffende PMI indeks fra Kina. CHF blev styrket på samme konto, og der er dermed tegn på at valuta, har genvundet lidt af sin safe haven -egenskab efter de seneste to måneders svækkelse. EUR/USD trak nedad i overensstemmelse med fald i risikoappetitten. Nøgletallene var nok lidt sekundære, men vi fik et nyt (lille) fald i euroområdet forbrugertillid, mens FHFA s boligpriser i USA steg mere end ventet. USD bød dog også ind med svagt fremstillingsindeks fra Richmond Fed. GBP blev svækket efter at de offentlige finanser viste en uventet stor forværring i august kombineret med faldende ordreindgang i henhold til CBI. Derudover blev Emerging Markets generelt sat under svækkelsespres som følge af den seneste Fed-forvirring. Herunder faldt BRL til det laveste niveau mod USD nogensinde. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 23. september 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM/YoY) Sep %/6.4% 0.9%/6.4% :00 Tyskland PPI (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.4%/-1.6% -- 0%/-1.3% -0.5%/-1.7% :00 USA Existing Home Sales Aug 5.50M M 5.31M :00 USA Fed's Lockhart Speaks on Economy :00 Danmark Consumer Confidence Indicator Sep :00 Danmark Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Aug %/- 0.5%/3.4% -0.1% :30 UK PSNB ex Banking Groups Aug 9.2B B 12.1B :00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders Sep :00 USA FHFA House Price Index MoM Jul 0.4% % 0.6% :00 EMU Consumer Confidence Sep A :00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Sep :45 Kina Caixin China PMI Mfg Sep P :45 Frankrig GDP (QoQ/YoY) 2Q F %/1.0% :00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Jul 4.5% % :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Sep P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Sep P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Sep P :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 18. sep % :00 EMU ECB President Mario Draghi Quarterly Hearing in EP :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Sep P :35 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Sep P :00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Oct :45 Frankrig Manufacturing Confidence Sep :00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Sep :00 Norge Deposit Rates 24. sep 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% :00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Sep :15 EMU ECB annoncement of 5th TLTRO 75B 60B 82B :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 19. sep K :30 USA Durable Goods Orders Aug -2.2% % :30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Aug -0.1% % :00 Belgien Business Confidence Sep :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 20. sep :00 USA New Home Sales Aug 515K K :00 Frankrig Jobseekers Net Change Aug :30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Aug -0.1% % :45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Sep :30 Sverige Household Lending YoY Aug % :00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Aug 5.4% % :30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 2Q T 3.7% % :15 USA Fed's Bullard to Speak on Monetary Policy :45 USA Markit US Services PMI Sep P :00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Sep F :25 USA Fed's George Speaks on Economy Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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