Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 26. oktober 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens vigtigste nøgletal er offentliggørelsen af det tyske IFO-indeks. Endnu en gang er buddet blandt iagttagerne, at IFO-indekset vil falde, efter at det faktisk har overrasket med stigninger de seneste måneder. Der ventes dog blot et lille fald til 107,8 i oktober fra forrige 108,5. ZEW s investorbaserede konjunkturbarometer er igen kommet med den kraftigste indikation på et fald, mens PMI s indeks har udviklet sig mere stabilt. Så et lille fald i IFO virker berettiget, hvor industrien især ventes at kunne trække ned i indekset, men spørgsmålet er samtidigt om tillidsmålingerne i byggeriet og detailhandlen kan fortsætte opad som set i de seneste måneder? Fra USA kommer antallet af solgte nye huse for september, hvor der ventes en lille tilbagegang. Dallas Fed offentliggør deres regionale industriindikator. Toppen af Kinas Kommunistparti mødes hele denne uge til den såkaldte 5. plenarsamling. På mødet skal man enes om og godkende retningslinjerne for den 13. femårsplan, som gælder for , og som skal endeligt vedtages og offentliggøres på partikongressen til marts næste år. Vi får således en god indikation på, hvilke politikområder, vi kan forvente, der bliver sat fokus på i Kina i de kommende fem år. Mest interessant med økonom-øjne er eventuelle udmeldinger om BNP-vækstmålet. Det er dog ikke sikkert, at der udmeldes eller indikeres et ny mål for de kommende fem år allerede i næste uge. Og det er næsten helt sikkert, at der ikke udmeldes vækstmål for året 2016 isoleret set. For de forgangne fem år var vækstmålet på 7,0% i gennemsnit pr. år, men målet for de enkelte år blev siden hen (typisk i marts) fastsat højere (på nær i år, hvor det er 7,0%). Ugens højdepunkt ventes at blive rentemødet i Federal Reserve (Fed) onsdag aften. Der er dog ikke mange, der venter en renteforhøjelse her, selvom der på det sidste rentemøde var tegn på at en renteforhøjelse inden årets udgang fortsat var forventet af et flertal i rentekomiteen. Siden da har vi imidlertid modtaget en række mere afdæmpede økonomiske data, herunder især på arbejdsmarkedet, hvor beskæftigelsesfremgangen bremsede op samt inden for detailhandlen. Spekulationerne går således på, om Fed overhovedet hæver renten i år? Der er også rentemøder i Sverige og Japan denne uge, og fra euroområdet kommer der inflationstal for oktober. Tyskland: PMI antyder stabilt IFO Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktierne steg generelt i fredags, og her til morgen ligger flere asiatiske børser også i plus. Statsrenterne steg, især i USA. EUR svækkedes fredag over for USD Kina: Centralbanken nedsatte i fredags sine benchmark ind- og udlånsrenter med 0,25 procentpoint sådan at fx 1-års udlånsrenten nu er 4,35%. Samtidig nedsatte man bankernes reservekrav med 0,5 procentpoint, hvilket giver bankerne bedre mulighed for at låne penge ud. Både renter og reservekrav er blevet nedsat løbende det seneste års tid for at understøtte den økonomiske vækst. Euroområdet: Den sammensatte PMI-indikator steg overraskende til 54,0 i oktober fra 53,6 i september. Der var ventet et fald til 53,4. Det var især servicesektoren, som udviklede sig positivt, og det understreger, at det især er den indenlandske økonomi, som trækker euroområdets økonomi ud af krisen. Fremstillings-PMI var uændret på 52. Det tyske fremstillings- PMI faldt lidt for anden måned i træk, men ikke mere end hvad der må betegnes som OK givet den aftagende globale vækst og VW-skandalen. Tysk service-pmi steg mere end ventet til 55,2. det højeste niveau i syv måneder. USA: Den foreløbige opgørelse af Markits PMI-indeks for fremstillingsindustrien viste en flot stigning til 54,0 i oktober fra 53,1. Om den mere anerkendte fremstillings-indikator fra ISM vil følge med op, forbliver et åbent spørgsmål. Euroområdets PMI steg overraskende Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 26. oktober 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+1,25% / indeks 986,89) endte i positivt territorium på ugens sidste handelsdag. Den positive stemning var især drevet af, at Kinas centralbank, Peoples Bank of China, hen på eftermiddagen meddelte, at de har valgt at sænke deres ledende rente med 25 basispunkter til 4,35%. Samtidig blev den etårige indlånsrente ligeledes sænket med 25 basispunkter til 1,50%. Da investorerne netop har været bekymret for udviklingen i den kinesiske økonomi, blev yderligere stimulanser velmodtaget af markedet. I toppen af indekset endte blandt andet Chr. Hansen Holding (+3,21% / kurs 407,80) efter et internationalt finanshus hævede kursmålet på aktien. Dagens kursmæssige vinder blev Novo Nordisk (+3,93% / kurs 373,00) og aktien fik dermed indhentet de seneste par dages tabte. I den anden ende af indekset endte A.P. Møller-Mærsk (-5,21% / kurs 9.925,00) efter konglomeratet tidlig fredag morgen kom med en kraftig nedjustering af deres helårsforventninger til Nedjusteringen sker som følge af en negativ udvikling på container-markedet idet raterne har befundet sig på et særdeles lavt niveau. Renter Efter torsdagens ECB-møde-relaterede rentefald lå de tyske og danske statsrenter nogenlunde fladt fredag med tendens til en lille stigning. Stigning skyldes nok bl.a. offentliggørelsen af den sammensatte PMI-indikator for euroområdet, som overraskende steg til 54,0 i oktober fra 53,6 i september. Der var ventet et fald til 53,4. Det var især servicesektoren, som udviklede sig positivt, og det understreger, at det især er den indenlandske økonomi, som trækker euroområdets økonomi ud af krisen. Fremstillings-PMI var uændret på 52. De amerikanske statsrenter steg mere end de europæiske, måske drevet af rente- og reservekravesnedsættelsen fredag i Kina. Både benchmark ind- og udlånsrenter blev nedsat med 0,25 procentpoint sådan at fx 1- års udlånsrenten nu er 4,35%. Samtidig nedsatte man bankernes reservekrav med 0,5 procentpoint, hvilket giver bankerne bedre mulighed for at låne penge ud. Den gode markedsstemning i USA fik også støtte fra stærkere end ventet PMI industriaktivitetsindikator fra Markit. Valuta EUR svækkedes fredag over for USD, og kun lidt af denne bevægelse er blevet reverseret her til morgen. EUR-svækkelsen var måske efterdønningerne efter Draghis lempelsessnak på ECB-mødet torsdag. Også den stærkere end ventede PMI-indikator fra Markit for USA s fremstillingssektor kan have medvirket til USD-syrkelsen over for EUR. JPY svækkedes også over for USD fredag. Markedet spekulerer i nye kvantitative lempelser fra Bank of Japan på rentemødet senere denne uge. Polske Zloty, PLN; er stort set uberørt af afholdelsen af polsk parlamentsvalg i går søndag. Dog svingede EUR/PLN lidt i nat efter offentliggørelsen af de første exit polls, som peger på stor valgsejr til oppositionspartiet Lov Og Orden. Partiet ser ud til at opnå absolut flertal i parlamentet, det første parti, som har det siden genindførelsen af demokrati i Polen. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 26. oktober 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 27/10/15 Sydbank 3. kvartal 28/10/15 DSV 3. kvartal 28/10/15 Banknordik 3. kvartal 28/10/15 Spar Nord 3. kvartal 29/10/15 Novo Nordisk 3. kvartal 29/10/15 Danske Bank 3. kvartal 29/10/15 Jyske Bank 3. kvartal 30/10/15 GN Store Nord 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk Tyskland Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Sep %/-3.1% 26/10/15 10:00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Oct /10/15 11:45 EMU ECB's Yves Mersch Speaks in Brussels 26/10/15 12:00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders Oct /10/15 15:00 USA New Home Sales Sep 545k k 26/10/15 15:30 USA Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Oct /10/15 18:00 Frankrig Jobseekers Net Change Sep EMU EU's Dombrovskis Meets Greek Officials in Athens 27/10/15 02:30 Kina Industrial Profits YoY Sep % 27/10/15 09:00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Oct /10/15 10:00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Sep 5.0% % 27/10/15 10:30 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q A 0.6%/2.4% %/2.4% 27/10/15 13:30 USA Durable Goods Orders Sep -1.2% % 27/10/15 13:30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Sep 0.2% % 27/10/15 14:00 USA S&P/CS 20 City (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.1%/5.1% %/4.96% 27/10/15 14:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Oct P /10/15 15:00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Oct /10/15 15:00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Oct /10/15 23:00 EMU ECB Coeure Speaks 27/10/15 11/03 Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.5% %/2.5% 28/10/15 08:00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Nov /10/15 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Oct /10/15 09:30 Sverige Riksbank Interest Rate Oct % -0.35% -0.35% 28/10/15 10:15 EMU ECB's Peter Praet, Constancio speaks 28/10/15 12:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications Oct % 28/10/15 13:30 USA Advance Goods Trade Balance Sep -$64.800b -- -$66.600b 28/10/15 19:00 USA FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) Oct % 0.25% 0.25% 28/10/15 19:00 USA FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) Oct % 0.00% 0.00% 29/10/15 00:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Sep P -0.5%/-2.7% %/-0.4% 29/10/15 08:00 UK Nationwide House PX (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.5%/3.8% %/3.8% 29/10/15 09:00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Sep % 29/10/15 09:55 Tyskland Unemployment Claims Rate SA Oct 6.4% % 29/10/15 11:00 EMU Economic Confidence Oct /10/15 12:00 UK CBI Reported Sales Oct /10/15 13:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims Oct k 29/10/15 13:30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q A 1.7% % 29/10/15 14:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Oct P -0.1%/0.2% %/0.0% 29/10/15 14:10 USA Fed's Lockhart speaks 29/10/15 14:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Oct /10/15 15:00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep 1%/7.2% %/6.7% 29/10/15 Belgien CPI (MoM/YoY) Oct %/1.06% 30/10/15 00:30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Sep -0.2% % 30/10/15 01:05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Oct /10/15 04:00 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Statement 30/10/15 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.2% -- 0%/1.6% 30/10/15 09:00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Oct /10/15 11:00 EMU Unemployment Rate Sep 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 30/10/15 11:00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Oct 0.1% 0.1% -0.1% 30/10/15 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Oct A 1.0% % 30/10/15 13:30 USA Employment Cost Index 3Q 0.6% % 30/10/15 13:30 USA Personal Spending (MoM) Sep 0.2% % 30/10/15 13:30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.2%/1.4% %/1.3% 30/10/15 14:45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager Oct /10/15 15:00 Belgien GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q P %/1.3% 30/10/15 15:00 USA Fed's Williams Speaks 30/10/15 15:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Oct F Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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5 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Johan Sahlström Chief Credit Strategist Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Macro Research Jan Häggström Chief Economist Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Janne Ronkanen Senior Analyst Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research Knut Anton Mork Senior Economist, Norway and China Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Per Wall Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC