Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 5. september 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens altoverskyggende nøgletal er den amerikanske arbejdsmarkedsrapport fra BLS for august. Her ventes ikke den store dramatik, idet beskæftigelsesvæksten uden for landbruget ventes at stige med omkring personer og dermed stort set opretholde det robuste tempo på over personer siden februar. Vi ser endda en smule risiko på opsiden i forhold til vores estimat, idet flere indikatorer har peget på muligheden for en højere fremgang. Således er ISM-indeksenes beskæftigelsesindeks steget til det højeste niveau i knapt et år, antallet af nytilmeldte ledige har de seneste uger nogenlunde fastholdt det laveste niveau siden 2006 og ikke mindst har NFIB s beskæftigelsesindeks for de mindre virksomheder peget på muligheden for en acceleration (se figur). Derudover forventer vi et fald i arbejdsløshedsraten til 6,1%. Endnu en gang vil der blive holdt et ekstra øje på deltagelsesgraden, antallet af personer i deltidsjob og ikke mindst lønudviklingen, idet disse har været i centrum i Fed-chef Yellens vurdering af, at der fortsat er en signifikant grad af uudnyttede arbejdsressourcer i økonomien. Fra euroområdet kommer industriproduktionen, som ventes at vise en ny lille stigning i juli på 0,5% m/m. Forventningen om fremgang fik næring af gårsdagens tal for industriordrerne, som overraskede positivt. Danmarks Statistik offentliggør industriproduktionen for juli. I juni overraskede produktionen positivt med en stigning på 5,3% m/m. Denne fremgang var dog i vid udstrækning trukket af den volatile medicinalindustri, og vi tror ikke at vi kan blive lige så positivt overraskede igen. Tværtimod mener vi, at industrien nu skal til at betale regningen for den meget store optimisme, der prægede sektoren i en stor del af 1. halvår. Denne optimisme blev således desværre ikke fulgt op af efterspørgslen, og det betød, at vi så en kraftig stigning i lagrene. Vi venter et ret så voldsomt fald i industriproduktionen i omegnen af 6% m/m. Endvidere ser vi risiko for yderligere fald de kommende måneder i takt med at effekterne af krisen i Ukraine/Rusland spiller ind. Det vil betyde, at det er svært at se industrisektoren bidrage positivt til den økonomiske aktivitet i 3. kvartal, hvor en lagerreduktion ligeledes vil trække ned i den økonomiske vækst. USA: Mulig stærkere beskæftigelsesvækst Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De europæiske aktiemarkeder holdt fest i går oven på ECB-mødet, mens de amerikanske faldt lidt. EUR markant svagere over for USD. Korte renter faldt i euroområdet, og periferilandenes lange statsrenter faldt til nye rekorder. Euroområdet: ECB overraskede i går ved at sænke sine rentesatser, idet refi-renten røg ned fra 0,15% til 0,05%, mens rente på indskudsbeviser røg endnu længere ned i negativt territorium (fra -0,1% til -0,2%). Samtidig annoncerede Draghi det opkøbsprogram for asset backed securitites (ABS), som har været i støbeskeen i nogen tid. Under programmet vil ECB opkøbe ABS samt covered bonds denomineret i EUR. Der blev ikke nævnt et beløb for de samlede opkøb, men Draghi slog fast, at programmet sammen med TLTRO-pengemarkedsoperationerne vil øge ECB s balance markant. De nærmere detaljer offentliggøres først på næste rentemøde d. 2. oktober. Danmark: Nationalbanken spejlede ECB's overraskende nedsættelse af indlånsrenten, og nedsatte sin indlånsrente med 0,10%-point, hvilket bragte renten på indskudsbeviser tilbage i negativt territorium på -0,05%. Således nåede renten kun at være positiv i godt fire måneder efter Nationalbanken sidste ensidige renteforhøjelse i april. Der har i forbindelse med den seneste tids svaghedstegn fra euroområdet og den tilspidsede situation i Ukraine været en øget efterspørgsel efter DKK-placeringer Det har sendt DKK stærkere over for EUR. Således er DKK blevet styrket i et tempo samt til et niveau, som vi så for tre år siden i sommeren/efteråret 2011 (se figur). Den gang blev kronestyrkelsen starten på en række isolerede danske rentesænkninger. Skulle tendensen til internationale rentefald fortsætte, ser vi således en øget mulighed for en isoleret dansk rentesænkning i den kommende tid som kan bringe indlånsrenten yderligere ned i negativt territorium. USA:. ADP-indikatoren for den private beskæftigelse steg med , en anelse lavere end konsensus men ikke nok til at skubbe til forventningen til dagens arbejdsmarkedsrapport. ISM for servicesektoren kom stærkt ud ved at stige til 59,6 i august fra 58,7 i juli. Der var ventet et fald. Tyskland: Industriordrerne steg med imponerende 4,6% m/m i juli, og indhentede hermed de seneste to måneders fald. Storbritannien: Bank of England holdt som ventet renten og størrelsen af opkøbsprogrammet uændret. Sverige: Riksbanken fastholdt som ventet renten på 0,25% og ændrede ikke på sin prognose om, at langsomt stigende inflation først vil kalde på en renteforhøjelse i slutningen af I forhold til rentemødet i juli, hvor Riksbanken overraskende sænkede reporenten med 0,50%, var der enkelte ændringer i dagens rentemeddelelse. På den ene side vurderede banken, at svagere vækstudsigter i euroområdet kombineret med konflikten i Ukraine vil svække eksportmulighederne i Sverige. På den anden side anerkendte banken, at ledigheden er faldet mere end ventet samt at inflationen i de seneste måneder har udviklet sig højere end ventet. Vi tror fortsat, at det nuværende lave renteniveau ikke vil blive fastholdt så længe som Riksbanken har skitseret i sin egen renteprognose. Kronestyrkelse indikerer dansk rentenedsættelse Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 5. september 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier Udgår i dag pga. tekniske problemer Renter Den store market mover i går var rentemødet i ECB. Her sænkede Draghi overraskende de pengepolitiske renter med 0,1%, så indlånsrenten kom yderligere i negativt territorium. Det lagde selv sagt pres nedad på de korte renter, og også de 2 og 5-årige tyske statsrenter faldt. Derimod steg den 10-årige rente lidt. I euroområdets periferilande var begejstringen til gengæld udelt. Her faldt også de lange renter til nye rekordlave niveauer. Det var nok ikke mindst Draghis annoncering af et opkøbsprogram for asset backed securities og covered bonds, som kom periferilandene til gode. I Danmark fulgte Nationalbanken efter ECB og sænkede sin indlånsrente med 0,1%. De lange danske obligationsrenter steg dog ligesom i Tyskland. De amerikanske statsrenter lod sig kun kortvarigt styre af Draghi, og efter et lille fald steg de resten af aftenen (dansk tid) som følge af stærke amerikanske nøgletal, især service- ISM, som overraskende steg igen i august. Valuta EUR svækkedes brat og kraftigt over for USD i går efter ECB-mødet, hvor Draghi både overraskende nedsatte renten og annoncerede opkøbsprogrammet for asset backed securities. EUR nåede således det svageste niveau over for USD siden juli sidste år. Ud over ECB blev bevægelsen også drevet af stærke amerikanske nøgletal. Fx steg ISM for servicesektoren til 59,6 i august fra 58,7 i juli. Der var ventet et fald. EUR/DKK er kravlet nedad de seneste uger (DKK styrket), dog ikke nok til at fordre en ensidig rentesænkning fra Nationalbanken. I går styrkedes DKK yderligere en smule efter ECB-mødet, og styrkelsen blev kun delvist reverseret efter Nationalbanken senere på dagen fulgte efter ECB og sænkede sin indlånsrente med 0,1%. SEK blev styrket en smule efter rentemødet i Riskbanken, selvom renten og rentebanen blev holdt uændret. Styrkelsen skyldtes sandsynligvis skyldtes, at Riksbanken så lidt højere inflation på kort sigt. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 5. september 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber D ato Selskab R egnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :00 Kina Manufacturing PMI Aug :35 Japan Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI Aug F :45 Kina HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Aug F :00 Tyskland GDP (QoQ/YoY) 2Q F -0.2% %/1.2% -0.2%/1.2% :30 Sverige PMI Manufacturing Aug :00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Aug :30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Aug :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Aug F :30 UK Mortgage Approvals Jul 64.5K K 66.6K :30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Aug :45 Schweiz GDP (QoQ/YoY) 2Q 0.5%/1.8% 0.3%/1.5% 0.5%/2.1% 0.0%/0.6% :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Aug :00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Jul -0.1%/-1.1% %/-0.8% -0.1%/-1.1% :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Aug F :00 USA ISM Manufacturing Aug :00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Aug :00 USA Construction Spending MoM Jul 0.8% % (r) 1.8% :00 Kina Non-manufacturing PMI Aug :45 Kina HSBC China Services PMI Aug :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Aug F :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Aug :00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Jul -0.3%/0.9% %/2.4% -0.4%/0.8% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 29. aug % 0.2% :00 USA Factory Orders (MoM) Jul 10.8% % 10.5% :00 USA U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book USA Total Vehicle Sales Aug 16.50M M 17.45M Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement :30 Frankrig ILO Unemployment Rate 2Q % 10.2% :00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Jul 1.5% %/-2.4% 4.6%/4.9% :30 Sverige Riksbank Interest Rate 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% :10 EMU Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Aug :00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Sep 375B 375B 375B 375B :45 EMU ECB Main Refinancing Rate 04. sep 0.150% 0.150% 0.150% 0.05% :45 EMU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 04. sep 0.400% 0.400% 0.400% 0.3% :45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate 04. sep % % % -0.2% :15 USA ADP Employment Change Aug 215K K 204K :30 EMU ECB'S Draghi Holds Press Conference After Rate Decision :30 USA Trade Balance Jul -$42.5B -- -$41.5B -40.5B :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 30. aug K 302K :30 USA Continuing Claims 23. aug K 2464K :30 USA Unit Labor Costs 2Q F 0.6% % -0.1% :45 USA Markit US Services PMI Aug F :45 USA Markit US Composite PMI Aug F :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 31. aug :00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Aug :30 USA Feds Mester speaks on Monetary Policy :15 USA Fed's Fisher, Kocherlakota Speaks :00 Tyskland Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.5% %/-0.5% :45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Aug :00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves Aug B :00 Danmark Industrial Production MoM Jul / 5.3% :30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul %/-0.6% 1.0%/-1.1% :00 EMU GDP (QoQ/YoY) 2Q P 0.0%/0.7% %/0.7% :00 Norge Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul %/3.2% :30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Aug 220K 225K 209K :30 USA Unemployment Rate Aug 6.1% 6.1% 6.2% Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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