Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 25. maj 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens mest interessante nøgletal kommer i form af det tyske Ifo-indeks, der vurderes som en af de bedste ledende indikatorer for væksten i euroområdets største økonomi. Indekset har igennem de første måneder af året udviklet sig mere eller mindre fladt efter at være faldet ved årets begyndelse, og den tendens venter vi vil være fortsat i maj. Ganske vist steg det tyske PMI-indeks ganske pænt, men ZEW indekset havde modsat pilen nedad se neden for. Alt i alt venter vi en lille stigning i indekset, men forventningsindekset i opgørelsen ventes fortsat at pege på, at BNPvæksten vil falde tilbage i 2. kvartal. Vi får også tal for forbrugertilliden i Tyskland som ventes at holde sig uændret på relativt høje 9,7 i juni. Fra USA får vi den første foreløbige opgørelse af vare-handelsbalancen, som ventes at vise, at underskuddet blev udvidet i april. Det skyldes primært udsigten til et rebound i importen, mens eksporten ventes at stige mere begrænset. Huspriserne (FHFA) ventes at vise fortsat fornuftig fremgang, mens dagens vigtigste tal nok bliver Markits foreløbige PMI-opgørelse for service-sektoren. Med de fornyede svaghedstegn fra fremstillingssektoren som vi har set på det seneste er det fortsat bydende nødvendigt at servicesektoren holder dampen oppe. Markederne reagerer dog normalt ikke synderlig på opgørelsen, men i disse tider hvor markederne vender hver en sten for at finde ud af om Fed mon vil sætte renten op eller ej allerede i juni, kan et udfald der afviger markant fra forventningerne om en lille stigning i indekset fra 52, 8 til 53,0 dog formentlig godt give lidt udsving. Indekset har gennem det seneste års tid udviklet sig svagere end pendanten fra ISM, og et rebound i detailsalget samt i forbrugertilliden understøtter også billedet af fremgang. US: Vil Markits service PMI catche up? Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Efter ellers at være åbnet med fald vendte de europæiske aktiemarkeder rundt og endte med pæne stigninger. De amerikanske aktiemarkeder havde ligeledes pilen opad og den positive stemning fortsatte også i Asien i nat, uden at det er til at få øje på nogle egentlige drivere. Stigningerne på aktiemarkederne kom selv om markederne fortsætter med at opjustere forventningerne til en renteforhøjelse fra Fed til sommer, som også trak USD stærkere over for EUR. Obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland endte dagen uændrede, mens de amerikanske renter steg. Kina: Forbrugertilliden fra Wespac, der blev offentliggjort en dag tidligere end annonceret, faldt fra 117,8 til 114,2 i maj. USA: Salget af nye huse eksploderede i april, hvor det blev til en stigning på hele 16,6% m/m. Samtidigt blev tallene bagud i tid opjusteret så det samlede salg endte på på annualiseret basis det højeste niveau siden januar Det indikerer, at boligmarkedet kan være trådt ind i en stærkere fase, men det er værd at pointere, at disse tal er meget volatile, og påskens tidlige placering kan have spillet et puds med sæsonkorrektionen. Tallene understøtter dog ideen om at boligmarkedet vil bidrage positivt til den økonomiske vækst, men vi vil dog ikke blive overraskede over at se et tilbagefald i maj. Modsat viser fremstillingssektoren fortsat svaghedstegn, hvor det blev til et fald i den regionale aktivitetsindikator fra Richmond Fed fra 14 til -1 i maj. Den negative udvikling følger i kølvandet på de tilsvarende opgørelse fra Philadelphia og New York, og indikerer dermed, at selv om fremstillingssektoren muligvis har stabiliseret sig, så er der ikke udsigt til, at et opsving er ved at materialisere sig. For indeværende peger de regionale indeks således på en risiko for, at det nationale ISM-indeks vil falde i maj. Fed s Harker udtalte at han meget vel kan se 2-3 renteforhøjelser i løbet af i år Tyskland: De reviderede BNP-tal for 1. kvartal bekræftede den stærke vækst i årets første måneder på 0,7% q/q, som var trukket af stigende investeringer, specielt i byggesektoren og en fornuftig udvikling i det private forbrug, mens nettoeksporten trak ned i det samlede vækstregnskab. ZEW-indekset, der måler investorernes syn på økonomien om 6 måneder, faldt dog mod forventning fra 11,2 til 6,4 i maj, som indikerer, at investorerne venter en opbremsning i den økonomiske aktivitet. I takt med at de positive effekter af både de lave energipriser samt af den svage EUR ebber ud, kombineret med afdæmpet global efterspørgsel, ser vi da også at noget af dampen vil gå af tysk økonomi når vi kommer længere ind i Frankrig: Tilliden i fremstillingssektoren aftog fra opreviderede 105 til 104 i maj, og peger fortsat ikke på noget meningsfuldt opsving Grækenland: Landets kreditorer er nået frem til en aftale, der vil udløse EUR 10,3 mia i nødlån, efter at Grækeland forleden vedtog flere spareplaner og efter at IMF bøjede sig i dens krav om en umiddelbar aftale om gældsnedskrivelse Storbritannien: De offentlige budgetter udvikler sig dårligere end ventet, og indikerer at det nye finansår er blevet skudt i gang på et svagt fodfæste. Lånebehovet i maj endte således på GBP 7,2 mia., og samtidigt blev estimatet for sidste finansår opjusteret med GBP 2 mia. Det indikerer, at der er lang vej til at finansministeren kan opfylde målet om et underskud på GBP 55,5 mia. i dette finansår. Sverige: Arbejdsløsheden faldt fra 7,2% til 6,7%, hvilket var langt mere end ventet og også mere end hvad Riksbanken har forventet. Det stærke arbejdsmarked er dog p.t. ikke i Riksbankens søgelys, men en fortsat stærk økonomi og et boomende arbejdsmarked kan betyde, at centralbanken gradvist vil skifte fokus over på risikoen for stigende lønpres når vi kommer længere ind i US: Nye svaghedstegn fra fremstillingssektoren For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 25. maj 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+1,29% / indeks 1039,00) endte gårsdagens handel i positivt terræn. Det startede ellers negativt, men henover dagen overtog den positive stemning. I toppen af det ledende danske indeks endte blandt andet Genmab (+1,99% / kurs 1229,00) som satte ny kursrekord for 11. handelsdag i træk. Der var ikke noget selskabsspecifikt nyt, men den seneste tids gode nyheder relateret til selskabets kræftmiddel Darzalex har fået investorerne til, at se mere positivt på aktien. Vestas (+2,30% / kurs 450,00) havde også en god dag. Ifølge det egyptiske medie Enterprise blev det i går hævdet, at Vestas i næste uge står til at indgå en hensigtserklæring om vindmølleprojekter i Egypten på 2200 MW. Det var formentligt en bidragende årsag til aktiens positive udvikling i går. Novo Nordisk (+2,39% / kurs 364,40) var i fokus eftersom et ekspertpanel under den amerikanske lægemiddelstyrelse (FDA) diskuterede, hvorvidt kombinationsproduktet Xultophys sikkerhedsog effektprofil er god nok til at bane vej for en anbefaling af en godkendelse i USA. Mødet var dog ikke afsluttet ved det danske markeds lukketid. Renter De finansielle markeder havde fra morgenstunden taget risikohatten af, og både de europæiske aktiemarkeder og obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland vendte pilen nedad. Stemningen skiftede dog hurtigt i løbet af formiddagen hvor især aktiemarkederne begyndte at trække i vejret uden nogen egentlige drivere, og det lagde også en bund under rentefaldet. Nøgletallene var ikke umiddelbart imponerende, hvor den franske industritillid faldt en smule og det tyske ZEW-indeks havde ligeledes pilen nedad. Den stærke tyske BNP-vækst i 1. kvartal blev bekræftet, og i Storbritannien var der signaler om en styrkelse af Bremain-lejren. Den positive stemning på aktiemarkederne tog til i løbet af eftermiddagen, og det afspejlede sig også i at renterne trak i vejret igen, og endte dagen mere eller mindre uændrede. Bedringen i risikovilligheden kom til trods for, at forventningerne til en sommer-renteforhøjelse fra Fed kravler i vejret. De amerikanske nøgletal var blandede, med en overraskende stor stigning i salget af nye huse, men et fald i den regionale aktivitetsindikator for fremstillingssektoren fra Richmond Fed. De stigende forventninger til Fed afspejlede sig i større stigninger i de amerikanske obligationsrenter. Valuta Efter en stribe mere høgeagtige kommentarer fra diverse Fed-medlemmer den seneste tid, er forventningerne i markederne til en renteforhøjelse fra Fed til sommer kravlet i vejret, og den tendens fortsatte i går som hjalp til at trække USD stærkere over en bred kan og ikke mindst over for EUR. Et markant hop opad i salget af nye huse i USA så også ud til at styrke troen på amerikanske økonomi, til trods for at fremstillingssektoren viste fortsatte svaghedstegn med et fald i den regionale aktivitetsindikator for fremstillingssektoren fra Richmond Fed. Nøgletallene fra euroområdet var også lidt blandede, hvor stærk tysk BNPvækst i 1. kvartal blev bekræftet, mens det tyske ZEW-indeks faldt mere end ventet. Risikovilligheden på de finansielle markeder steg, og det medvirkede formentlig også til at trække JPY svagere over for USD. GBP blev ligeledes styrket trods skuffende tal for de offentlige budgetter, men trukket af signaler om at bliv -siden i Brexit debatten vinder terræn. Kinas centralbank svækkede sin CNY-fixing over for USD til det laveste niveau siden marts 2011 i takt med den bredt funderede styrkelse af USD. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 25. maj 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 24/05/16 Brodrene Hartmann A/S 1. kvartal 25/05/16 Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S 1.kvartal 26/05/16 United International Enterprises 1.kvartal 27/05/16 Matas A/S 4. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 23/05/16 01:50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Apr 274.1b b 426.6b 23/05/16 04:00 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg May P /05/16 09:00 Danmark Consumer Confidence Indicator May /05/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI May P /05/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI May P /05/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI May P /05/16 12:15 USA Fed's Bullard, Williams speaks 23/05/16 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI May P /05/16 16:00 EMU Consumer Confidence May A /05/16 08:00 Tyskland GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q F 0.7%/1.6% %/1.6% 0.7%/1.6% 24/05/16 08:45 Frankrig Manufacturing Confidence May (r) /05/16 09:30 Sverige Unemployment Rate SA Apr 7.1% 7.1% 7.2% 6.7% 24/05/16 10:10 Kina Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment May /05/16 10:30 UK PSNB ex Banking Groups Apr 6.4b b(r) 7.2b 24/05/16 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Current Situation May /05/16 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Expectations May /05/16 15:00 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels 24/05/16 16:00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index May /05/16 16:00 USA New Home Sales Apr 523k k(r) 619k 25/05/16 08:00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Jun /05/16 09:00 EMU EU Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels 25/05/16 10:00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate May /05/16 12:30 EMU ECB Vice President Constancio Speaks 25/05/16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications May % 25/05/16 14:30 USA Advance Goods Trade Balance Apr -$60.0b -- -$56.9b 25/05/16 15:00 USA FHFA House Price Index MoM Mar 0.5% % 25/05/16 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI May P /05/16 18:00 Frankrig Jobseekers Net Change Apr /05/16 09:00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey May /05/16 10:30 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q P 0.4%/2.1% %/2.1% 26/05/16 12:10 USA Fed's Bullard Speaks in Singapore 00. Jan 26/05/16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims May k k 26/05/16 14:30 USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) Apr P 0.3% %(r) 26/05/16 14:30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (MoM) Apr P 0.3% % 26/05/16 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort May % 26/05/16 16:00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.7%/0.1% %/2.9% 26/05/16 17:00 USA Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity May /05/16 01:05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence May /05/16 01:30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Apr % 27/05/16 03:30 Kina Industrial Profits YoY Apr % 27/05/16 07:00 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy YoY Apr 1.0% % 27/05/16 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence May /05/16 14:30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 1Q S 0.9% % 27/05/16 16:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment May F /05/16 19:00 USA Fed's Yellen speak Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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