Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 5. november 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Der er ikke mange interessante nøgletal på programmet i dag, og markedsaktørerne vil nok forholde sig afventende frem mod morgendagens vigtige arbejdsmarkedsrapport fra USA. De ugentlige tal for nye dagpengemodtagere og for Bloomberg forbrugertilliden er i pipeline, og en række Fed-folk holder taler. I Europa og euroområdet vil der nok være lidt øget opmærksomhed på EU- Kommissionens opdaterede økonomiske prognose, som kommer i dag. Det skyldes det forhøjede fokus der aktuelt er på de økonomiske prognoser, efter ECB-chef Draghi ser ud til at betinge ny stimulans på december-mødet af de opdaterede økonomiske prognoser fra den økonomiske stab i ECB. Der kommer detailsalg for euroområdet og industriordrer for Tyskland for september. Begge serier svinger meget på månedsbasis, men industriordrerne skulle gerne rette sig efter sidste måneds fald på 1,8% m/m. Der er rentemøde i Bank of England (BoE) i dag. Det er ikke fordi der ventes nogle ændringer i pengepolitikken, men der bliver samtidigt frigivet referat af mødet samt ikke mindst en ny Inflationsrapport. Her vil vi sandsynligvis se en nedjustering af inflation og vækst på kort sigt, i overensstemmelse med den svagere udvikling vi har set på det sidste henholdsvis i forbindelse med faldende energipriser og let skuffende BNP-vækst i 3. kvartal. På den anden side har vi fortsat modtaget robuste væksttegn, herunder fra fornyet styrke i detailsalget samt en fortsat solid lønvækst. Dertil skal lægges, at GBP er svækket en smule siden den forrige inflationsrapport, og markedsforventningerne til en første renteforhøjelse er udskudt til omkring midt Det kan betyde, at BoE i sin inflationsrapport ikke ændrer på, at 2% s-målet nås omkring midt- 2017, trods de svagere udsigter på kort sigt. Også i Norges Bank er der rentemøde. Her er man langt tættere på at sænke end hæve renten, men vi tror Norges Bank venter lidt. Siden rentemødet i september har vi modtaget lidt blandede input for økonomien, men senest har disse haft en negativ slagside med svagere end ventet tal for detailsalg og arbejdsløshed. På den anden side har inflationen holdt sig høj, og NOK har udviklet sig lidt svagere end antaget. Nok så vigtigt er Norges Bank naturligvis under indflydelse af den mere lempelige stemning, som har hersket blandt andre centralbanker, herunder især i Europa med ECB og Sveriges Riksbank som vigtige eksempler. ECB har signaleret mulighed for mere stimulans, mens Riksbanken i denne uge bød ind med et miks af ekstra QEopkøb samt signal om lavere renter i længere tid. Vi forventer dog, at Norges Bank vil afvente situationen lidt i endnu og fastholde styringsrenten på nuværende 0,75%. Vi tror, at banken vil adressere øgede risici på nedsiden for den økonomiske udvikle og signalere muligheden for rentenedsættelse i december. Vi forventer, at Norges Bank senest vil sænke renten på marts-mødet for derefter at levere yderligere to rentenedsættelse i 2016, som bringer renten ned i 0% i 2. halvår. Fra Danmark kommer antallet af tvangsauktioner, som vi tror vil have holdt sig mere eller mindre stabilt i oktober, understøttet af de lave renter, højere huspriser og stabilt arbejdsmarked, mens konkurserne kan have haft en yderligere lille pil nedad i samme måned. UK: Lønvækst høj, men inflation stadig lav Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Udtalelser fra Fed s Yellen og stærke nøgletal førte til rentestigninger i går (og stærkere USD), hvilket igen førte til små aktiekursfald. De fleste asiatiske aktiemarkeder ligger i plus her til morgen. USA: Fed-chef Yellen udtalte i går, at en renteforhøjelse på decembermødet fortsat er i spil (på engelsk: a live possibility ) hvis ellers de økonomiske data i den kommende tid bliver ved med at pege på bedring på arbejdsmarkedet og en inflation, som nærmer sig 2%. Fed s Dudley tilføjede efterfølgende, at han er enig med Yellen, men at vi må afvente de økonomiske data. ISM-indekset for servicesektoren steg markant og overraskende meget til hele 59,1 i oktober fra 56,9 i september. Det tyder på, at selvom industrien er lidt presset, har resten af den amerikanske økonomi det ganske fint. En sammenvejning af ISM for industri og service peger på fremgang i BNPvæksten i 4. kvartal (se figur). Underindekset for nye ordrer steg til uhørt høje 62,0 fra 56,7, mens underindekset for beskæftigelsen steg til 59,2 fra 58,3. ADP-indikatoren for beskæftigelsen i den private sektor viste en fremgang på i oktober men en nedrevidering til måneden før. Det var en anelse bedre end ventet, og da den offentlige beskæftigelse nok også vil tage til, er der lagt op til en hæderlig arbejdsmarkedsrapport i morgen, også selvom ADP ikke altid er den bedste indikator. Handelsbalanceunderskuddet indsnævredes til det mindste underskud i syv måneder. Storbritannien: Service-PMI steg mere end ventet til 54,9 fra 53,3 i september. Hermed nåede den sammensatte PMI-indikator op på 55,4, det højeste niveau siden juli. Euroområdet: Den endelige opgørelse af service-pmi for oktober blev nedrevideret en smule i forhold til den foreløbige opgørelse til 54,1 fra 54,2. Der er dog stadig tale om en stigning i forhold til september. USA: ISM peger på fremgang i BNP-vækst i Q4 Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 5. november 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,76% / indeks 997,83) endte i positivt territorium og fulgte dermed strømmen fra de resterende europæiske indeks. Den positive stemning var primært drevet af generelt gode selskabsspecifikke nyheder og et langt bedre end ventet ISM tal for den amerikanske servicesektor. I toppen af indekset endte Genmab (+5,20% / kurs 707,50) idet biotekselskabet sent tirsdag opjusterede deres forventninger til helåret som følge af udsigten til flere milepælsbetalinger og færre omkostninger. A.P. Møller- Mærsk (+3,16% / kurs ,00) fulgte også godt med efter rederiet offenltiggjorde en spareplan som blandt andet indeholdte nedlæggelse af stillinger, skrotning af optioner på nye skibskøb og mindske netværkskapaciteten. Spareplanen kommer i kølvandet på nedjusteringen af årets resultat som følge af en skuffende udvikling i Maersk Line for et par uger siden. FLSmidth (+2,67% / kurs 272,70) fulgte godt med idet flere indikatorer fra Kina peger på, at væksten ikke er så slem som flere tidligere har frygtet. I den anden ende af indekset endte Danske Bank (-1,81% / kurs 184,80) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Renter De tyske og danske statsrenter faldt først på dagen i går, måske fordi den endelige opgørelse af service-pmi for oktober for euroområdet blev nedrevideret en smule i forhold til den foreløbige opgørelse. Rentefaldene blev dog reverseret sidst på dagen efter stærke amerikanske nøgletal og udtalelser fra Fed-chef Yellen trak de amerikanske statsrenter opad. Yellen udtalte, at en renteforhøjelse på decembermødet fortsat er i spil (på engelsk: a live possibility ) hvis ellers de økonomiske data i den kommende tid bliver ved med at pege på bedring på arbejdsmarkedet og en inflation, som nærmer sig 2%. Fed s Dudley tilføjede efterfølgende, at han er enig med Yellen, men at vi må afvente de økonomiske data. ISM-indekset for servicesektoren steg markant og overraskende meget til hele 59,1 i oktober fra 56,9 i september. Det tyder på, at selvom industrien er lidt presset, har resten af den amerikanske økonomi det ganske fint Valuta USD styrkedes over for de fleste valutaer inklusive EUR i går. Det skyldtes både stærk ISM-indikator for servicesektoren og udtalelser fra Fed-chef Yellen. Service-ISM steg til intet mindre end 59,1 i oktober fra 65,9 i september. Samtidig indikerede Yellen, at hvis ellers nøgletallene kommer ind nogenlunde fornuftigt, vil den første renteforhøjelse komme i næste måned. USD-styrkelsen førte også til et fald i USD/JPY (svagere JPY) GBP styrkedes over for EUR, måske på grund af at service-pmi steg mere end ventet til 54,9 fra 53,3 i september. Hermed nåede den sammensatte PMI-indikator op på 55,4, det højeste niveau siden juli. GBP-fremgangen var dog ikke stor nok til at overskygge den generelle USD-styrkelse, hvorved GBP blev svækket over for USD. De fleste Emerging Markets valutaer svækkedes i går og her til morgen over for USD som følge af de øgede forventninger til en Fed-renteforhøjelse i næste måned. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 5. november 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 03/11/15 TDC 3. kvartal 03/11/15 Genmab 3. kvartal 03/11/15 Coloplast 4. kvartal 03/11/15 Bavarian 3. kvartal 04/11/15 Lundbeck 3. kvartal 05/11/15 North Media 3. kvartal 05/11/15 Vestas 3. kvartal 05/11/15 Zealand Pharma 3. kvartal 06/11/15 A.P. Møller-Mærsk 3. kvartal 06/11/15 SimCorp 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 02/11/15 02:35 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Oct F /11/15 02:45 Kina Caixin China PMI Mfg Oct /11/15 08:30 Sverige Swedbank/Silf PMI Manufacturing Oct /11/15 09:00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Oct /11/15 09:30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Oct /11/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct F /11/15 10:30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Oct /11/15 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Oct F /11/15 16:00 USA Construction Spending MoM Sep 0.5% % 0.6% 02/11/15 16:00 USA ISM Manufacturing Oct /11/15 18:00 USA Fed's Williams speaks 03/11/15 10:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Oct /11/15 16:00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Oct /11/15 16:00 USA Factory Orders Sep -0.9% % -1.0% 03/11/15 20:00 EMU ECB's Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt 03/11/15 /2015 USA Wards Total Vehicle Sales Oct 17.80m m 18.12m 03/11/15 /2015 EMU EU's Moscovici Meets Greek Officials in Athens Nov /11/15 02:45 Kina Caixin China PMI Services Oct /11/15 Japan Consumer Confidence Index Oct /11/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Oct F /11/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Oct F /11/15 10:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Oct /11/15 11:00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Sep -0.5%/-3.3% %/-2.6% -0.3%/-3.1% 04/11/15 11:30 USA Fed's Brainard Speak 04/11/15 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications Oct % -0.8% 04/11/15 14:15 USA ADP Employment Change Oct 180k k /11/15 14:30 USA Trade Balance Sep -$44.50b -- -$48.33b -$40.81b 04/11/15 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Oct F /11/15 16:00 USA Fed's Yellen Testifies on Bank Regulation 04/11/15 16:00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Oct /11/15 20:30 USA Fed's Dudley Speaks on Economy 05/11/15 00:50 Japan BOJ Minutes for Oct. 6-7 Meeting 05/11/15 01:30 USA Fed Vice Chair Fischer Speaks 05/11/15 08:00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Sep 1%/1.8% %/1.9% 05/11/15 09:15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Oct 0%/-1.4% 0%/-1.4% 0.1%/-1.4% 05/11/15 09:30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Sep %/3.8% 05/11/15 09:30 Tyskland Markit Germany Construction PMI Oct /11/15 10:00 Norge Deposit Rates 05. Nov % 0.75% 05/11/15 10:10 EMU Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Oct /11/15 11:00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep %/2.3% 05/11/15 11:00 EMU European Commission Economic Forecasts 05/11/15 13:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Nov 375b 375b 375b 05/11/15 13:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 05. Nov 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 05/11/15 13:00 UK Bank of England Inflation Report 05/11/15 13:30 USA Challenger Job Cuts YoY Oct % 05/11/15 14:30 USA Dudley, Lagarde, Fischer Speaks 05/11/15 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims Oct k 05/11/15 14:30 USA Unit Labor Costs 3Q P 2.2% % 05/11/15 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 01. Nov /11/15 19:30 USA Fed's Lockhart Speaks 06/11/15 08:00 Tyskland Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.5%/1.1% %/2.3% 06/11/15 09:00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves Oct b 06/11/15 09:00 Danmark Industrial Production MoM Sep % 2.7% 06/11/15 09:30 Sverige Average House Prices Oct m 06/11/15 10:00 Norge Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Sep %/3.1% 06/11/15 10:30 UK Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Sep -0.1%/1.3% -- 1%/1.9% 06/11/15 14:30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 180k 195K 142k 06/11/15 14:30 USA Unemployment Rate Oct 5.1% 5.2% 5.1% 06/11/15 14:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.2%/2.3% -- 0%/2.2% Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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5 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Johan Sahlström Chief Credit Strategist Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Macro Research Jan Häggström Chief Economist Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Janne Ronkanen Senior Analyst Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research Knut Anton Mork Senior Economist, Norway and China Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Per Wall Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC