Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 3. april 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens hovedbegivenhed er uden tvivl rentemødet i ECB. Centralbanken har holdt sig i ro på det seneste, men har understreget, at den fortsat er klar til tage nye stimulansinitiativer i brug. Det seneste lidt overraskende fald i inflationen i euroområdet til blot 0,5% y/y, har lagt ekstra pres på ECB for at levere stimulans på rentemødet. Muligheden for en rentesænkning kan således ikke helt udelukkes. På den anden side har konjunkturbarometrene, som vi modtog i sidste uge, udviklet sig fortsat positivt, hvilket ECB igen kan vælge at hænge hatten på i fald den ikke ønsker at handle denne gang. Vi hælder dog til, at ECB vil levere en eller anden form for handling frem for at snakke denne gang. ECB s passivitet har for nyligt sendt EUR op i det stærkeste niveau mod USD i over to år, og efter rentemødet i marts understregede Draghi således, at den stærkere EUR har øget relevansen af denne i vurderingen af prisstabilitet. Således ser vi en vis sandsynlighed for, at valutakursen vil indgå i den fremtidige pengepolitiske vurdering og udformning. Den stærkere EUR er drevet af stigende korte renter, herunder på pengemarkedet, hvilket ikke mindst skyldes bankernes nedbringelse af overskudslikviditet forud for ECB s gennemgang af bankernes aktiv-kvalitet. På denne baggrund kan vi meget vel se tiltag fra ECB der har til hensigt, at opbløde den lidt anstrengte situation på pengemarkederne. Skulle Draghi genoptage sit tidligere aktivistiske image oven på de seneste mange rentemøders snakken - kan vi ikke udelukke, at ECB vælger at tage mere konkret aktion mod EUR allerede på dette rentemøde. Her kan ECB vælge at intervenere ved eksempelvis at købe udenlandske statsobligationer - eventuelt amerikanske. Det vil samtidigt øge pengemængden og dermed kan det hjælpe til at stabilisere den faldende likviditet på pengemarkederne og det opadgående pres på pengemarkedsrenterne. Det vil dog være en ny og kontroversiel vej for ECB at flirte med valutakursmanipulation, især bankens globale betydning taget i betragtning. Det er således ikke vores hovedscenarium. Fra USA kommer ISM-indekset uden for fremstillingsindustrien (service), hvor vi venter en pæn forbedring i marts. Markit s nye serviceindeks har sammen med overraskende høj stigning i forbrugertilliden peget på en ganske robust stigning. På den anden side har vejret begrænset fremgangen, og detailsalget har ikke vist sig specielt stærkt de seneste måneder, hvilket kan tynge optimismen i marts. Vi venter en stigning til omkring 54,0 fra forrige 51,6. ECB: Lavere likviditet og stærk EUR i fokus Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Det var en stille dag på markederne i går. Aktiemarkederne på begge side af atlanten lukkede i små plusser, og de lange renter steg tilsvarende en lille smule over dagen. USD gik stærkere over for både EUR og JPY. Her til morgen er de asiatiske aktiemarkeder også i plus, hvilket bl.a. tilskrives en ny stimulanspakke fra Kina. USA: ADP-indikatoren viste en stigning på beskæftigede på linje med konsensusestimatet. Indikatoren er ikke altid er lige god til at forudsige den officielle beskæftigelse i arbejdsmarkedsrapporten, men udfaldet af ADP står i hvert fald ikke i vejen for en fremgang i beskæftigelsen uden for landbruget på den rigtige side af i morgen. Kina: På baggrund af den seneste tids opbremsning i den økonomiske aktivitet, offentliggjorde myndighederne her til morgen en mini-stimulanspakke med fokus på især jernbaneinvesteringer samt skattelettelser for små virksomheder. Jernbaneinvesteringer har dog hele tiden været et fokusområdet, og der er tale om en relativt lille pakke, specielt sammenlignet med de mange tiltag gennemført i Alligevel er pakken et vigtigt signal om at Beijing nok ikke vil væksten at falde markant under det officielle vækstmål på 7,5%. Det officielle PMI for servicesektoren i Kina gik lidt frem mens og Markit/HSBC s tilsvarende indeks gik lidt tilbage. Danmark: Valutareserven viste et pænt fald på 16,4 mia. DKK til 459 mia. DKK, hvilket er den laveste reserve siden midt Faldet blev dog primært drevet af afdrag på statens udenlandske låntagning på, og der var faktisk tale om nettokøb af udenlandsk valuta for 0,5 mia. DKK. Dermed er der ikke den store interventionsaktivitet at spore fra Nationalbankens side på trods af at DKK midt i sidste uge nåede det svageste niveau over for EUR siden Det mindsker sandsynligheden for at Nationalbanken vælger at ændre på rentespændet over for ECB i kølvandet på ECB-mødet i eftermiddag. DK: Ingen interventionsaktivitet i marts Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 3. april 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,67% / indeks 765,31) endte i positivt territorium, på trods af at ADP s beskæftigelsesrapport over det amerikanske jobmarked viste en stigning på jobs i marts, hvilket var en smule lavere end ventet. Til gengæld var den anspændte situation mellem Rusland og Ukraine trådt i baggrunden, hvilket bidrog til at det ledende danske indeks kunne stige for syvende handelsdag i træk. I toppen af indekset endte Tryg (+2,12% / kurs 553,00) efter et dansk finanshus hævede deres anbefaling på aktien og gav udtryk for at de venter et stærkt 1. kvartalsregnskab. A.P. Møller-Mærsk B (+1,56% / kurs ,00) fulgte også godt med og kunne desuden offentliggøre at koncernen frasælger datterselskabet Danbor. Vestas (+1,09% / kurs 232,00) havde endnu en god dag, godt hjulpet af udtalelser fra kansler Angela Merkel og Tysklands energiminister, Sigmar Gabriel, om, at det planlagte loft over ny offshorekapacitet på 6,5 gigawatt (GW) frem til 2020 vil blive lidt mere fleksibelt. Derudover vil det årlige loft på 2,5 GW onshore-vind ikke tælle projekter, som udskifter gamle vindmøller med nye. I den anden ende af indekset endte Genmab (-1,35% / kurs 218,80) og TDC (-0,42% / kurs 49,84) på trods af at der ikke var nogen selskabsspecifikke nyheder fra nogen af de to selskaber. Renter De lange renter steg lidt i går. I USA steg den 10-årige statsrente med 3bp. ADPbeskæftigelsesindikatoren gik frem (om end lidt mindre end ventet), og fabriksordrerne og de ugentlige tal for låneansøgninger overraskede positivt. I Europa steg de tyske statsrenter også, måske fordi forventningen om at ECB kommer med nye lempelser i dag er ved at fordufte. Forskellen mellem amerikanske og tyske statsrenter er nu på det højeste niveau siden maj De lange danske renter fulgte med de tyske op, mens de korte statsrenter handlede fladt. Inden for euroområdet fortsatte græske og portugisiske renter med at falde. Som nævnt i gårsdagens morgenmelding planlægger Grækenland at vende tilbage til markedsfinansiering snarligt. Der bliver dog tale om små udstedelser og med kort varighed. Portugal har allerede udstedt på markedsvilkår, og håber at kunne gøre sig helt fri af hjælpeprogrammer. Valuta USD styrkedes over for EUR i går, måske fordi fabriksordrerne og låneansøgningerne var bedre end ventet. ADP-indikatoren pegede på solid fremgang i fredagens arbejdsmarkedsrapport Nøgletallene fra euroområdet var få i går og kunne ikke drive EUR. Det kan til gengæld rentemødet i ECB i dag, hvor Draghi vel kan rette fokus mod EUR. JPY er svækket løbende siden slutningen af sidste uge, og tendenden er fortsat her til morgen. GBP svækkedes lidt over for EUR i løbet af dagen i går. NOK gik stærkere over for EUR i går, hvilket blandt andet kan tilskrives, at norsk ledighed overraskende faldt til 3,5% i januar. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP 765,3 0,67 USD/JPY 104,0 0,100 USA 2,80 0,03 CRB 301,3 1,64 Stoxx ,9 0,17 EUR/USD 1,376-0,005 Euroområdet 1,62 0,04 Brent oil (1M fut) 104,9-0,74 FTSE 6659,0 0,10 USD/DKK 5,426 0,018 Danmark 1,66 0,04 Gold (spot) 1293,2 0,85 S&P ,9 0,29 CHF/DKK 6,116-0,009 Nasdaq 4276,5 0,20 GBP/DKK 9,028 0,036 Hang Seng 22592,1 0,30 SEK/DKK 0,837-0,002 Nikkei 15121,0 1,17 NOK/DKK 0,908 0,003 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,125 0,125 0,500 2,80 2,65 3,20 3,50 EUR/USD 1,376 1,38 1,25 1,10 Euroland 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 1,62 1,70 1,90 2,00 USD/JPY 104,0 102,0 103,0 105,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 2,77 2,85 3,00 3,25 USD/DKK 5,426 5,41 5,96 6,77 Danmark 0,20 0,30 0,30 0,30 1,66 1,80 2,00 2,15 EUR/DKK 7,465 7,46 7,45 7,45 Sverige 0,75 0,75 0,75 1,00 2,16 2,25 2,50 2,75 SEK/DKK 0,8370 0,811 0,847 0,887 Norge 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,25 2,93 2,90 2,90 3,00 NOK/DKK 0,9081 0,899 0,920 0,920 2

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 3. april 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :01 UK Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM/YoY) Mar %/5.4% 0.6%/5.7% :15 Japan Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI Mar :50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Feb P 0.3%/9.8% %/10.3% -2.3%/6.9% :00 Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Feb -0.5%/0.8% %/0.9% 1.3%/2.0% :45 Frankrig GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q F 0.3%/0.8% %/0.8% 0.3%/0.8% :00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Mar :00 Danmark GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q F %/0.6% -0.5%/0.6% :00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Mar 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% :00 EMU CPI Core YoY Mar A 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% :45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager Mar :55 USA Fed's Yellen Speaks :30 USA Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Mar :50 Japan Tankan Large Mfg Index 1Q :00 Kina Manufacturing PMI Mar :45 Kina HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Mar F :30 Sverige PMI Manufacturing Mar , :00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Mar :30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Mar , :55 Tyskland Unemployment Rate Mar 6.8% % 6.7% :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar F :30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Mar , :00 EMU Unemployment Rate Feb 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 11.9% :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Mar F :00 USA ISM Manufacturing Mar , :00 USA Construction Spending MoM Feb 0.1% % 0.1% USA Total Vehicle Sales Mar 15.80M M 16.33M EMU EU Finance Ministers, Central Bankers Meet in Athens :00 UK Nationwide House (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.8%/9.6% %/9.4% 0.4%9.5% :00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Jan 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Mar :00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Feb -0.1%/-1.7% %/-0.4% -0.2%/-1.7% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 28. mar % -1.2% :15 USA ADP Employment Change Mar 190K K 191K :00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Mar :00 USA Factory Orders (MoM) Feb 0.8% % 1,6% :30 USA Fed's Lockhart, Bullard speaks :15 Japan Markit/JMMA Japan Composite PMI Mar , :00 Kina Non-manufacturing PMI Mar , :45 Kina HSBC China Composite PMI Mar , :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Mar F :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Mar F :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Mar :00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Feb -0.6% %/1.3% :30 USA Challenger Job Cuts YoY Mar % :45 EMU ECB Announces Interest Rates 03. apr 0.250% 0.250% 0.250% :45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate 03. apr 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% :30 EMU ECB'S Draghi Holds Press Conference After Rate Decision :30 USA Trade Balance Feb -$38.5B -- -$39.1B :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 28. mar K :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 30. mar :45 USA Markit US Services PMI Mar F :00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Mar :30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Feb %/0.8% :00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.3%/6.1% %/8.4% :30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Mar 190K 210K 175K :30 USA Unemployment Rate Mar 6.6% 6.6% 6.7% Analytikere: Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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