Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 8. marts 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Det er småt med de helt store økonomiske nøgletal, hvor der i USA dog kan være en vis fokus på NFIB-tillidsindekset for de mindre virksomheder for februar. Indekset faldt lidt mere end ventet i januar til det laveste niveau i næsten to år, og spejlede dermed tendensen vi har set i service-sektorens tillidsindeks. ISM s serviceindeks faldt dog kun marginalt i februar, og kombineret med trods alt stadig robust forbrugertillid forventer vi, at NFIB-indekset vil stige til 94,5 i februar fra 93,9 i januar. Vi har dog allerede fået tal for NFIB s beskæftigelsesindeks, der viste en svagere udvikling i februar, som giver en lille risiko på nedsiden for vores og markedets forventninger om en stigning i det overordnede NFIB-indeks. Fra euroområdet får vi reviderede nationalregnskabstal for 4. kvartal, som ikke ventes at afvige fra den første opgørelse om en BNP-vækst på 0,3% q/q. Tallene vil dog kunne give et indtryk af vækstsammensætningen da detaljerne i tallene offentliggøres for første gang. Tyskland offentliggør tal for industriproduktionen i januar, hvor gårsdagens tal for fabriksordrerne (se nedenfor) peger på en mere stabil udvikling. Vi er da også relativt optimistiske og venter en stigning efter faldet i december, der var det største siden august Her var især energiproduktionen dog trykket som følge af det milde vejr, og vi venter en korrektion i opadgående retning oven på dette. Endvidere er produktionen også faldet mere end ordreindgangen gennem de seneste måneder. Svaghederne i diverse industribarometre indikerer dog, at der formentlig ikke er tale om en fundamental bedring, og at industrisektoren stadig er udfordret. US: ISM-service viser mulig stabilisering i NFIB Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De europæiske aktiemarkeder var præget af negativ stemning og endte med fald, mens de amerikanske aktiemarkeder endte fladt. Renterne satte sig en smule, mens oliepriserne steg og sendte Brent spot over 40 USD/tønde for første gang i år. Til morgen ser vi svagere børs-stemning i Asien efter svage tal fra Kina og til dels Japan. Japan: BNP-væksten i 4. kvartal blev opjusteret en tand fra oprindeligt -0,4% q/q til nu at vise en økonomisk tilbagegang på 0.3% q/q. Selvom det var en tand bedre end ventet understreger den negative vækst regeringens problemer med at få gang i økonomien. Kina: Valutareserven faldt med USD 29 mia. i februar som dermed peger på en opbremsning i kapitalflugten ud af landet. En lille styrkelse af CNY over for USD kan have bidraget til det mindre fald i USD-termer, ligesom fejringen af det kinesiske nytår og den medfølgende ugelange ferie også kan have medvirket. Med de mere positive briller kan kombinationen af strammere kapitalkontrol samt en bedre kommunikation fra centralbanken med hensyn til at der ikke er planer om at lade CNY devaluere også ses som at have bremset den ellers lidt bekymrende acceleration i kapitaludstrømningen i de foregående måneder. Eksporten faldt med uventet kraftigt med 25,4% y/y i februar målt i USD det største fald siden maj 2009, hvilket er en klar forværring i forhold til forrige måneds fald på 11,2% y/y. Importen faldt samtidigt mere end ventet med 13,8% y/y, hvilket var den 16. måned i streg med fald. Dog så faldt nytåret i år i februar, hvilket sandsynligvis reducerede aktiviteten ekstra, og man skal nok se hele 1. kvartal under et for at vurdere den seneste tendens. Ikke desto mindre igangsatte det nye bekymringer, og regeringens accept af lavere handelsaktivitet blev måske understreget, da der ikke blev sat specifikke vækstmål for handlen på den årlige folkekongres. USA: Der var ikke der store nøgletal på programmet, men vi fik et par Fed-taler, hvor Fed s Brainard påpegede at de mest fremtrædende risici til Fed s økonomiske hovedscenarium er på nedsiden. Fischer udtalte, at vi aktuelt måske ser de første tegn på, at det svage link mellem lav ledighed og stigende inflation er ved at rette sig. EMU: Det var en smule skuffende at det investorbaserede barometer Sentix faldt for tredje måned i streg i marts-målingen. Faldet var godt nok lille men de seneste ugers stigninger på aktiemarkederne var tiltænkt at have en mere positiv indflydelse., om end faldet var lille. På gårsdagens finansministermøde så man at forhandlinger om mulig græsk gældslettelse er rykket tættere på mens der blevet givet grønt lys for at Cypern kan forlade bailoutprogrammet. Tyskland: Fabriksordrerne faldt med 0,1% m/m i januar, hvilket var bedre end ventet. Samtidigt blev tallene for december revideret fra at vise et fald på 0,7% m/m til et fald på 0,2% m/m, som alt andet lige peger på en mere stabil udvikling. Ser man således på et tre-måneders gennemsnit, som renser for volatiliteten i tallene, er der således små tegn, at den meget negative trend siden midten af sidste år er bremset op. Det skyldes primært en bedring i ordrerne fra lande uden for euroområdet, mens ordrerne fra de andre eurolande stadig hænger lidt mere. Vi er dog stadig ikke tilbøjelige til at forvente et fundamentalt stærkere industriopsving i den kommende tid. Danmark: Industriproduktionen overraskede markant positivt med en fremgang på 2,8% m/m i januar. Vi havde ventet, at et tilbagefald i medicinalindustrien efter en stor stigning måneden før, samt de mere usikre udsigter for den globale økonomi ville have trukket ned i produktionen. Fremgangen var endda relativt bredt baseret, og med stigningen nåede produktionen op på niveauet fra 2008, altså før finanskrisen ramte. Industriens omsætning på både eksport- og hjemmemarkedet var dog væsentligt svagere i januar, og vi ser derfor fortsat en risiko for, at den stigende produktion i vid udstrækning sker til lager, hvilket kan give et tilbageslag på et senere tidspunkt, hvis ikke konjunkturerne både herhjemme og globalt begynder at udvikle sig stærkere. Norge: Produktionen i fremstillingssektoren skuffede med et fald på 1,0% m/m i januar, hvormed den nedadgående trend fortsætter, og svaghederne ses ikke kun i de olie- og gasrelaterede industrier. Den svage udvikling bekræfter os i vores forventning om, at Norges Bank vil levere en rentenedsættelse samt sænke den fremadrettede rentesti på rentemødet i næste uge. Kina: Eksportvækst i nyt stort dyk Tyskland: Stabilisering i fabriksordrer? For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 8. marts 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier Det ledende danske indeks OMXC20 CAP (+0,11% / indeks 1015,73) sluttede ugens første handelsdag med et beskedent fald. Samme tendens gjorde sig gældende på de fleste europæiske børser. Stemningen var i høj grad afventende forud for torsdagens vigtige rentemøde i den europæiske centralbank (ECB). I toppen af det ledende danske indeks endte Coloplast (+2,96% / kurs 538,50) som blev hævet til Køb fra Hold af den norske storbank DNB. Kursmålet blev hævet til 600 kr. fra 560 kr. William Demant (+2,23% / kurs 618,50) havde også en god dag på trods af at der blev offentliggjort statistik fra det amerikanske Veterans Affairssegment der viste at William Demants markedsandel faldt til 7,5% i februar fra 7,8% i januar. Derimod viste samme statistik, at konkurrenten GN Store Nord (+0,60% / kurs 134,00) øgede deres markedsandele i februar til 20,8% fra 20,0% i januar. Renter På obligationsmarkederne havde de tyske og danske statsrenter pilen let nedad i overensstemmelse med den let negative stemning som rådede på aktiemarkederne, blandt andet efter at Kina sænkede sit officielle vækstmål for de kommende år. Blandt nøgletallene fik vi lidt negative input fra et uventet nyt fald i Sentix-barometeret for euroområdet, mens de tyske industriordrer ikke halt faldt i det frygtede tempo. USA s renter fastholdt imidlertid en lille stigning over mandagen, om end en udmelding fra Fed s Brainard påpegede risici på nedsiden til centralbankens scenarium om inflationsstigning mod 2% s-målet. Stigningen fandt nok lidt inspiration fra en kraftig stigning i oliepriserne. Til morgen falder de amerikanske renter lidt tilbage, i forbindelse med at der råder en negativ stemning på børserne i Asien oven på svage nøgletal fra Japan og især Kina. Valuta EUR blev mandag i første omgang svækket over for USD fra morgenstunden, formentlig trukket af forventningerne om ny ECBstimulans på rentemødet på torsdag. Tendensen til en svagere EUR blev muligvis yderligere forstærket efter et fald i Sentixinvestortilliden i euroområdet. De tyske fabriksordrer viste også et fald, om end ikke helt så stort som ventet. Udviklingen vendte dog senere på dagen, hvilket meget vel hentede inspiration fra en lidt dueagtig tale fra Fed s Brainard. EUR/USD endte således dagen højere for tredje handelsdag i træk. JPY blev styrket til morgen i forbindelse med en negativ børsstemning i Asien efter en omgang svage handelstal fra Kina og til dels Japans reviderede væksttal fra Japan, som stadig viste negativ vækst i 4. kvartal. NOK blev umiddelbart svækket over for DKK efter at produktionen i fremstillingssektoren skuffede med et større og mere bredt baseret fald end ventet, som understøtter forventninger om yderligere rentenedsættelser fra Norges Bank formentlig allerede i næste uge. NOK genvandt dog sin styrke igen i løbet af dagen sammen med stigende oliepriser. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 8. marts 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Bavarian Nordic A/S 4. kvartal Brodrene Hartmann A/S 4. kvartal Torm A/S 4. kvartal Jeudan A/S 4. kvartal Veloxis Pharmaceuticals A/S 4. kvartal Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S 4. kvartal Mols-Linien A/S 4. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.3%/0.0% %/-2.2%(r) -0.1%/1.1% :00 Danmark Industrial Production (MoM) Jan -0.5% -2.0% 3.4% 2.8% :00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves Feb b :10 Kina Foreign Reserves Feb $3190.0b -- $3230.9b $3202.3b :00 Norge Ind Prod Manufacturing (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.1%/ %/ %/-7.7% -1.0%/-6.3% :30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Mar :00 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels :00 USA Fed's Fischer and Brainard Speaks :00 USA Consumer Credit Jan $16.500b -- $21.267b Kina Trade Balance Feb $51.00b -- $63.29b $32.59b Kina Exports (YoY) Feb -14.5% % -20.6% Kina Imports (YoY) Feb -12.0% % -13.8% :50 Japan GDP SA (QoQ) 4Q F -0.4% % -0.3% :00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook Feb :00 Tyskland Industrial Production SA (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.5%/-1.6% %/-2.2% :15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb -0.1%/-1.1% %/-1.3% :00 EMU GDP SA (QoQ/YoY) 4Q P 0.3%/1.5% %/1.5% :00 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism Feb :30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Feb :30 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.2%/-0.7% %/-1.7% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 04. mar % Mar Kina New Yuan Loans CNY Feb b b Mar Kina Aggregate Financing CNY Feb b b :30 Kina CPI (YoY) Feb 1.8% % :30 Kina PPI (YoY) Feb -4.9% % :00 Tyskland Trade Balance Jan 17.0b b :00 Tyskland Exports/Imports SA (MoM) Jan 0.8%/0.8% %/-1.6% :00 Sverige PES Unemployment Rate Feb % :45 Frankrig Manufacturing Production (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.5%/1.3% %/0.5% :00 Danmark Current Account (Seasonally Adjusted) Jan b :00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Jan b :00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.8%/0.4% %/0.6% :00 Danmark CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Feb --/0.3% %/0.4% :00 Norge CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.4%/3.0% %/3.0% :00 Norge CPI Underlying (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.7%/3.1% -/3.1% -0.1%/3.0% :45 EMU ECB Main Refinancing Rate 10. mar 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% :45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate 10. mar -0.40% -0.40% -0.30% :45 EMU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 10. mar 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 05. mar 275k k :30 USA Continuing Claims 27. feb 2252k k :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06. mar :00 Tyskland CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Feb F 0.4%/-0.2% %/-0.2% :30 Sverige Average House Prices Feb m Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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