Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 2. september 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Fra USA kommer i dag ISM s fremstillingsindeks. Her ventes et lille fald i august til 56,8 fra 57,1 i juli, hvor tillidsindekset steg overraskende kraftigt til det højeste niveau siden april I august ventes blot et lille fald, hvilket dog dækker over meget forskellige signaler fra diverse allerede kendte regionale barometre for august. Således steg Richmond Feds indeks og de vægtede indeks Philly Fed og Empireindekset faldt, men beholdt fortsat et pænt niveau. Derudover er ECRI s (Economic Cycle Research Institutes) ugentlige ledende indeks faldet, mens Markits nationale bud på PMIindekset i august steg. Vi hælder til, at der har været en overvægt af fald, hvorfor vi ser et lille fald i ISM, men understreger at der er stor usikkerhed. Et fald vil også være i overensstemmelse med de signaler, vi har modtaget fra stigende oliepriser tidligere på året som typisk sænker aktiviteten med en vis forsinkelse (se figur). Danmarks Nationalbank offentliggør valutareserven for august. Vi tror dog ikke der vil være den store dramatik i tallet i denne omgang, men hvis det fald, vi har set i pengemarkedsrenterne i euroområdet fortsætter, kan der på et tidspunkt opstå et styrkelsespres på kronen, der kan fordre en isoleret rentenedsættelse fra Nationalbanken. I morgen tidlig offentliggøres begge de to kinesiske service-pmi indikatorer. Vi tillægger dem normalt ikke meget betydning, blandt andet fordi servicesektoren stadig er lille i Kina i forhold til fremstillingssektoren. Men service-pmi har fået lidt mere opmærksomhed på markedet de seneste to måneder, da de er faldet noget. Faldet afspejler nok den igangværende korrektion på ejendomsmarkedet USA: ISM-fremstilling bremses af oliepriser Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Der var lukket i USA i går som følge af Labor Day. De europæiske aktiemarkeder lukkede i små plusser. Moskvabørsen faldt 0,6% på forventning om flere økonomiske sanktioner mod Rusland. De tyske statsrenter faldt lidt og USD styrkedes over for EUR. Ukraine/Rusland: Den ukrainske regering optrappede i går sin retorik, idet man nu er gået over til at betegne de russiske handlinger som en fuldskala invasion. Japan: Lønvæksten steg til 2,6% y/y i juli, hvilket er den højeste lønvækst siden begyndelsen af 1990 erne. Det ergodt nydt for Japan, som så længe har forsøgt at slippe fri af de deflationære tendenser. Kritikere peger dog på, at den høje lønvækst kun skyldes høje bonusudbetalinger og ikke en generel tendens. Samtidig peger de på, at inflationen jo også er steget på det seneste sådan at reallønvæksten fortsat er negativ. Storbritannien: Britisk PMI faldt noget mere end ventet til 52,5 fra 55,4 i juli. PMI faldt også i juli, og faldene minder os om, at britisk økonomi ikke er immun over for den svage udvikling i euroområdet på trods af at britisk økonomi er kommet sig langt bedre efter den globale recession. Sverige: Svensk PMI faldt også mere end ventet, idet den tog noget af en rutchetur fra 55,2 til 51,0. Der var kun ventet et marginalt fald til 54,8. Italien: PMI faldt mere end ventet tilbage under 50. Euroområdet: Den endelige opgørelse af PMI for fremstillingssektoren for august blev revideret marginalt nedad i forhold til flash-estimatet fra 50,8 til 50,7. Tyskland: BNP-tallene for 2. kvartal blev ikke revideret i forhold til den første opgørelse. Svensk PMI på rutchetur Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 2. september 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,07% / indeks 795,71) endte i moderat negativt territorium. Fokus var fortsat rettet mod torsdagens rentemøde i den europæiske centralbank (ECB). I den anledning har der været livligt med spekulationer i markedet om, at ECB snart vil annoncere flere lempelige tiltag til gavn for europæisk økonomi og aktiemarkedet. I toppen af det danske C20 indeks endte blandt andet Pandora (+1,72% / kurs 431,10) efter Bank of America indledte dækning på aktien med anbefalingen Køb. I modsatte ende af indekset endte Nordea (-1,02% / kurs 73,00) uden at der dog var nogen nævneværdige selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Uden for eliteindekset var Brønby (+9,91% / kurs 2,55) i fokus efter fodboldklubben offentliggjorde, at den har købt Danmarks landsholdsanfører Daniel Agger med hjælp fra storinvestor og bestyrelsesformand Jan Bech Andersen. Simcorp (-5,99% / kurs 157,00) var også i fokus efter selskabet fredag aften efter markedets lukketid, rapporterede et 2. kvartalsregnskab som blandt andet bød på en nedjustering Renter De amerikanske markeder var lukket i går som følge af Labor Day. I Europa faldt de tyske og danske statsrenter lidt, hvilket blandt andet tilskrives forventning om flere lempelser fra ECB ovenpå et større end ventet fald i den italienske PMI-indikator. Flere af de sydeuropæiske statsrenter faldt også, mens den spanske steg. Spanien udstedte for første gang nogensinde statsobligationer med 50-årig løbetid. Rentemarkederne vil nok i dag være afventende forud for ECB-rentemødet torsdag og arbejdsmarkedsrapporten fra USA fredag. Valuta Gårsdagen var en stille dag på valutamarkederne, idet de amerikanske markedsaktører holdt fri. EUR svækkedes lidt over USD i går i takt med at de europæiske renter faldt som følge af spekulationer om flere ECB-lempelsestiltag GBP endte dagen uændret over for EUR, men var ellers på et tidspunkt noget svækket over for EUR efter at PMI overraskende faldt fra 55,4 til 52,5 i august. Også SEK blev svækket efter offentliggørelsen af det svenske PMI, som tog noget af en rutchetur. SEK rettede sig dog også delvist igen men endte lidt svagere over for EUR. Den seneste tids faldende risikoappetit som følge af den geopolitiske udvikling i Ukraine og andre steder har vanen tro sendt investorerne mod de sikre havne som fx CHF. EUR/CHF er således gradvist kravlet ned mod den af centralbanken udmeldte nedre grænse på 1,2. I går følte centralbank-chef Jordan sig så kaldet til at sige, at bunden fortsat er vital fordi de globale risici er øget. Det medvirkede til en lille svækkelse til omkring 1,2075. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 2. september 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber D ato Selskab R egnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :00 Kina Manufacturing PMI Aug :35 Japan Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI Aug F :45 Kina HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Aug F :00 Tyskland GDP (QoQ/YoY) 2Q F -0.2% %/1.2% -0.2%/1.2% :30 Sverige PMI Manufacturing Aug :00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Aug :30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Aug :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Aug F :30 UK Mortgage Approvals Jul 64.5K K 66.6K :30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Aug :45 Schweiz GDP (QoQ/YoY) 2Q 0.5%/1.8% 0.3%/1.5% 0.5%/2.0% :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Aug :00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Jul %/-0.8% :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Aug F :00 USA ISM Manufacturing Aug :00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Aug :00 USA Construction Spending MoM Jul 0.8% % :00 Kina Non-manufacturing PMI Aug :45 Kina HSBC China Services PMI Aug :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Aug F :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Aug :00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Jul %/2.4% :00 EMU GDP (QoQ/YoY) 2Q P 0.0% %/0.7% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 29. aug % :00 USA Factory Orders (MoM) Jul 10.8% % :00 USA U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book USA Total Vehicle Sales Aug 16.50M M Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement :30 Frankrig ILO Unemployment Rate 2Q % :00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Jul 1.5% %/-2.4% :30 Sverige Riksbank Interest Rate 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% :10 EMU Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Aug :00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Sep 375B 375B 375B :45 EMU ECB Main Refinancing Rate 04. sep 0.150% 0.150% 0.150% :45 EMU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 04. sep 0.400% 0.400% 0.400% :45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate 04. sep % % % :15 USA ADP Employment Change Aug 215K K :30 EMU ECB'S Draghi Holds Press Conference After Rate Decision :30 USA Trade Balance Jul -$42.5B -- -$41.5B :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 30. aug K :30 USA Continuing Claims 23. aug K :30 USA Unit Labor Costs 2Q F 0.6% % :45 USA Markit US Services PMI Aug F :45 USA Markit US Composite PMI Aug F :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 31. aug :00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Aug :30 USA Feds Mester speaks on Monetary Policy :15 USA Fed's Fisher, Kocherlakota Speaks :00 Tyskland Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.5% %/-0.5% :45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Aug :00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves Aug B :00 Danmark Industrial Production MoM Jul / 5.3% :30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul %/-0.6% 1.0%/-1.1% :00 Norge Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul %/3.2% :30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Aug 220K 225K 209K :30 USA Unemployment Rate Aug 6.1% 6.1% 6.2% Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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