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1 konsekvens A konsekvens B handling A handling B inudgeyou THE APPLIED BEHAVIOURAL SCIENCE GROUP NUDGING "Og"kunsten"at"designe".l"mennesker" overvejelse opmærksomhed præferencer formodninger Pelle Guldborg Hansen, Behavioural Scientist, Ph.D. / CBIT, Roskilde University Director of ISSP The Initiative for Science, Society & Policy Chairman of The Danish Nudge Network Head of INUDGEYOU team værdier information Welcome'to( the'economist'subscrip3on'centre' Pick(the(type(of(subscripAon(you(want(to(buy( or(renew.((( SUBSCRIPTIONS( Economist.com'subscrip3on' (US($59.00( OneJyear(subscripAon(to(Economist.com.(Includes(online( access(to(all(aracles.com.(the"economist"since(1997.( 68(%( 16(%( konsekvens A handling A overvejelse konsekvens B handling B Print'subscrip3on' (US($125.00( OneJyear(subscripAon(to(the(print(ediAon(of(The" Economist."( opmærksomhed Print'&'web'subscrip3on' (US($125.00( OneJyear(subscripAon(to(the(print(ediAon(of(The" Economist"and(online(access(to(all(arAcles(from"The" Economist"since(1997.( 32(%( 84(%( præferencer værdier formodninger information 1(

2 Decision-making and behavioral biases Anchoring the common human tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on one trait or piece of information when making decisions. Attentional Bias implicit cognitive bias defined as the tendency of emotionally dominant stimuli in one's environment to preferentially draw and hold attention. Backfire effect - Evidence disconfirming our beliefs only strengthens them. Bandwagon effect the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink and herd behavior. Bias blind spot the tendency to see oneself as less biased than other people. [2] Choice-supportive bias the tendency to remember one's choices as better than they actually were. [3] Confirmation bias the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. [4] Congruence bias the tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing, in contrast to tests of possible alternative hypotheses. Contrast effect the enhancement or diminishing of a weight or other measurement when compared with a recently observed contrasting object. [5] Denomination effect the tendency to spend more money when it is denominated in small amounts (e.g. coins) rather than large amounts (e.g. bills). [6] Distinction bias the tendency to view two options as more dissimilar when evaluating them simultaneously than when evaluating them separately. [7] 34 x 52 = 2(

3 SLOW( SERIAL( CONTROLLED( EFFORTFUL( RULEJGOVERNED( FLEXIBLE( Figure 1: Schematic model of a Dual Process Theory of decision making. Broken lines indicate interaction between system 1 and system 2. HEURISTIKKER PÅ ARBEJDE INPUT( NOT(RECOGNIZED( PATTERN( PROCESSESOR( SYSTEM(2( REPETITION( PATTERN( RECOGNITION( RATIONAL( OVERRIDE( DYSRATIONALIA( OVERRIDE( DECISION( OUTPUT( BEHAVIOUR( VALG Et(valg,(en(udfordring(eller(en( beslutning(præsenterer(sig(selv(al( beslutningstageren.( 1 2 HEURISTIK Uvidende(om(svaret(og/eller( prioritering(relaavt(al(at(løse(opgaven,( anvender(beslutningstageren(en( simplificerende(heurisak(for(at(nå(en( beslutning.( RECOGNIZED( SYSTEM(1( FAST( PARALLEL( AUTOMATIC( EFFORTLESS( ASSOCIATIVE( SLOW(LEARNING( EVALUERING 3 Intern(og(ekstern(feedback(udgør( mekanismen(for(evaluering,(men(behøver( ikke(at(tracke(moavet.( SLOW( SERIAL( CONTROLLED( EFFORTFUL( RULEJGOVERNED( FLEXIBLE( Figure 1: Schematic model of a Dual Process Theory of decision making. Broken lines indicate interaction between system 1 and system 2. NOT(RECOGNIZED( SYSTEM(2( REPETITION( large medium small INPUT( PATTERN( PROCESSESOR( PATTERN( RECOGNITION( RATIONAL( OVERRIDE( DYSRATIONALIA( OVERRIDE( DECISION( OUTPUT( BEHAVIOUR( RECOGNIZED( SYSTEM(1( large medium small FAST( PARALLEL( AUTOMATIC( EFFORTLESS( ASSOCIATIVE( SLOW(LEARNING( 3(

4 VANENS ANATOMI TRIGGER 1 Triggeren(er(den(sAmulus(der( akaverer(det(vanemæssige(respons.( 2 RUTINE RuAnen(er(responsJhandlingen(der( produceres(automaask(af(system(1( processer(som(et(resultat(af( gentagelse.( FEEDBACK 3 Feedback(forstærker(adfærd(ved(at( belønne(hjernen(på(det(neurologiske( niveau(for(at(forudsige(fremaden(korrekt.( 4(

5 nudge Et nudge er et aspekt af en adfærdsarkitektur, der ikke burde betyde noget i princippet, men gør det i praksis. Source: Hansen, PG (2016) The Definition of Nudge and Libertarian Paternalism: Does the hand fit the glove? The European Journal of Risk Regulation nudge Et nudge er en funktion af ethvert forsøg på at påvirke menneskers vurdering, valg eller adfærd i en forudsigelig retning (1) under antagelsen af at kognitive bias, rutiner og vaner påvirker vores individuelle og sociale adfærd, og (2) som virker ved at gøre brug af disse som en integreret del af sådanne forsøg. Det betyder bl.a. at et nudge fungerer uafhængigt af 1) begrænsninger af valgmuligheder, eller 2) ændringer ved handlingsalternativernes omkostninger (herunder økonomi, tid, besvær, social sanktioner, o. lign.) 3) ny informationsgivning Praksis' +' ' +' Incitamenter( Forbud( InformaAon( Anomali( Princippet' ' Nudge( MoAverer(/(bekræfer( Incitamenter( Forbud( InformaAon( Source: Hansen, PG (2016) The Definition of Nudge and Libertarian Paternalism: Does the hand fit the glove? The European Journal of Risk Regulation 5(

6 6(

7 Default mode (mind-wandering or task negative network) Central executive mode (task-positive network) switch Attentional filter (Where s Waldo? network) filter, saliency detector, vigilance mode frontal lobes and sensory cortices Controlled by nicotin receptors in substantia innominata Good(introducAon:(Daniel(J.(LeviAn((2014)( Fly(in(the(urinal( 80'%( 7(

8 FORUDINDSTILLEDE VALG PÅ ARBEJDE Defaults' Defaults(er(afgørende(for(konsekvenser,(de(er(billige(at(benyke(og( kræver(intet(videre(engagement(fra(brugerne(( Egebark, J., & Ekström, M. (2013). Can Indifference Make the World Greener? Sweden: Research Institute of Industrial Economics. 8(

9 Defaults' Nogle(forandring(skal(opnås(gennem(gradvis(justering(af(defaults( Den(er(fin,(men( hvad(er(det?( 9(

10 10(

11 Mentale'modeller' En(mental(model(er(en(forklaring(af(en(persons(tankeprocesser(om( hvordan(noget(fungerer(i(verden( Mentale'modeller' En(mental(model(er(en(forklaring(af(en(persons(tankeprocesser(om( hvordan(noget(fungerer(i(verden( Transit(maps(are(not(scaled(models(of(physical(reality.(In(the(London(Underground(map,(for(instance,(the(correlaAon(between(actual(distance(and(transit(map(distance(is( just(.22.(distance(in(the(underground(map(represents(just(4(percent(of(the(variaaon(of(the(actual(spaaal(distance(between(staaons.( Intui3v'kodning' Verden(kan(indrekes(så(vi(umiddelbart(forstår(den( Intui3v'kodning' Verden(kan(indrekes(så(vi(umiddelbart(forstår(den( 11(

12 Mentale'modeller' En(mental(model(er(en(forklaring(af(en(persons(tankeprocesser(om( hvordan(noget(fungerer(i(verden( Handlingsanvisning' Uden(handlingsanvisninger(åbnes(en(verden(af(uhensigtsmæssige( muligheder( Handlingsanvisning' Uden(handlingsanvisninger(åbnes(en(verden(af(uhensigtsmæssige( muligheder( Handlingsanvisning' Uden(handlingsanvisninger(åbnes(en(verden(af(uhensigtsmæssige( muligheder( 12(

13 Nudging'i'toldslusen' Gennem'en'kombina3on'af'salience'og'intui3v'kodning'var'det'muligt'at' dokumentere'en'effekt'hvor'13,75%'flere'passagerer'valgte'at'benyse'venstre' sluseport' 30.00%( 25.00%( 24.50%( 20.00%( 16.55%( 15.00%( 10.00%( 10.75%( 5.00%( 0.00%( Kontrol( Mørkegrøn( Neongrøn( Kontrol( Mørkegrøn( Neongrøn( N(=(2949(( N(=(3419(( N(=(4527(( Note:(Kontrol((XX.XX.XX),(Mørkegrøn(( (kl.(17:10J19:10),(Neongrøn(( (kl.(9:10J12:10).(Alarmen(gik(X( gange(på(kontrol,(3(gange(på(mørkegrøn(&(4(gange(på(neongrøn.(fejllinjer(repræsenterer(95%(sikkerhedsinterval.' 13(

14 Så hvad er nyt ved nudge? ( Psykologiske'barrierer' Selv(småsten(kan(afspore(toget( Vaner'og'ru3ner' Man(bliver(nød(Al(at(kende(tre(grundkomponenter(hvis(man(vil(have( nogen(al(at(lykkes(igen(og(igen( 40'%' 14(

15 Psykologiske'barrierer' Selv(småsten(kan(afspore(toget( Omkostninger'i'3d' Pris(er(ikke(den(afgørende(faktor.(( Det(handler(om(hvordan(du(skal(betale.( Hyperbolic discounting Omkostninger'i'3d' Pris(er(ikke(den(afgørende(faktor.(( Det(handler(om(hvordan(du(skal(betale.( mail: Eksklusivt et-dags kursus om nudging i praksis, d. 7. april 2016, se: 15(