Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community

Transkript

1 >mmission of the European Communities ommissionen for De europceiske Fcellesskaber Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community Diagrammer og kommentarer til den 0konomiske situation i Fcellesskabet Publication mensuelle

2 This publication appears monthly (except August and September, which are combined in a double number). Denne publikation udkommer manedligt (bortset fra et dobbeltnummer i perioden augustseptember) The Graphs and Notes of Group A appear in eery issue and deal with: A1 ndustrial production A2 Unemployment A3 Consumer prices A4 Balance of trade The others (Groups B, C and D) appear quarterly as follows: Diagrammer og bemrerkninger til gruppe A: A1 lndustriproduktion A2 Antal arbejdsl0se A3 Forbrugerpriser A4 Handelsbalance offentligg0res i hert nummer, medens grupperne B, C og D findes i f0lgende udgaer: January, April, July, October Januar, april, juli, oktober B1 B2 B3 B4 BS Exports Trade between member countries Discount rate and callmoney rates Shortterm lending to business and priate customers Gold and foreign exchange reseres B1 Eksport B2 Handel mellem medlemslandene 83 Diskontosats og pengemarkedsrente B4 Kortfristede kreditter til irksomheder og priatpersoner BS Guld og alutareserer February, May, AugustSeptember, Noember Februar, maj, augustseptember, noember C1 mports C2 Terms of trade C3 Wholesale prices C4 Retail sales cs Wages C1 mport C2 Bytteforhold C3 Engrospriser C4 Detailomsretn i ng cs L0nninger March, June, AugustSeptember, December Marts, juni, augustseptember, december D1 D2 D3 D4 DS Output in the metal products industries Dwellings authorized Tax reenue Share prices Longterm interest rates D1 D2 D3 D4 DS Produktion i metalindustri Boliger hortil der er giet byggetilladelse Skatteindtregter Aktieku rser Langfristede rentesatser Results of the monthly business surey carried out among heads of enterprises in the Community are to be found immediately after the graphs and notes. Resultater af den manedlige konjunkturunders0gelse indhentet blandt irksomhedsledelser i Frellesskabet findes umiddelbart efter diagrammerne og kommentarerne. For obserations on the graphs see last page. Bemrerkninger til diagrammerne findes pa sidste side.

3 Commission of the European Communities DirectorateGeneral for Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate for National Economies and Economic Trends 200,. rue de la Loi, 1049 Bn..xel1es GRAPHS AND NOTES. ON THE ECONOMC STUATON N XHE COMMUNTY DAGRAMMER OG KOMMENTARER TL DEN 0KONOMSKE STUATON F JELLESSKABET Kommissionen for De europreiske Frellesskaber Generaldirektoratet for 0konomiske og Finansielle Anliggender Direktoratet for Medlemsstaternes 0konomi.og Konjunkturudikling 200, rue de la Loi Bruxelles

4 THE TREND OF WAGE COSTS N 1974 Proisional estimates suggest that in the Community as a whole the rise in wage costs per unit of output at constant prices in industryincluding building and constructionagain accelerated sharply in Expressed in national currencies, the steepest rise was in the United Kingdom, where the figure was some 26% compared with 7.5% in n Denmark and reland the increase was some 18.5% (compared with only 9% in both countries in 1973). n taly it was some 17% (12% in 1973), in France 14.5% (7.5%), in Belgium 13% (almost 8%), in the Netherlands 11% (9.5%) and in Germany 8.8% (almost 7%). n the United States the increase is put at 8.5% compared with about 3% in f account is taken of changes in the alue of the national currencies against the European unit of account (1 EUR = grams of fine gold; the central rates fixed in 1971 for currencies now floating being adjusted to allow for changes in market exchange rates), the rise in wage costs in Belgium and Denmark is the same as when calculated in national currencies; in 1973, the Belgian figures were also identical while in Denmark the rise in terms of EUR was 8,5%. For Germany and the Netherlands, this method of calculation makes for larger increases (12.5% and 14.5% compared with 12.5% and 11% in 1973). By contrast, the percentage changes for France, reland, taly and the United Kingdom are smaller than when calculated in national currency (some 6%, 13.5%, 4.5% and 21% as against 7.5%, 7%, 2% and 8% in 1973). n the United States the rise in wage costs in terms of EUR was the same as in terms of national currency, compared with a decline of 10.5% in Brussels, 28 February L0NOMKOSTNNGERNES UDVKLNG 1974 Stigningen i reale lenomkostninger pr. produceret enhed i industrien herunder byggefagene er efter forelebige sken atter gaet strerkt i ejret i Frellesskabet under et i Omregnet til nationale alutaer er lenomkostningerne herefter steget kraftigst i Det forenede Kongerige, nemlig med 26% i forhold til 7,5% i 1973, Danmark og rland naede stigningen op pa ca. 18,5% (i 1973 kun 9% ide to ande). ltalien beleb stigningen sig til ca. 17% (12% i 1973), i Frankrig 14,5% (7,5 %), i Belgien 13% (omtrent 8 %), i Nederlandene 11% (9,5 %) og i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland 8,8% (omtrent 7 %). For USA regnes der med en stigning pa 8,5% (i forhold til omkring 3% i 1973). Tager man i forbindelse med udiklingen i lenomkostninger hensyn til rendringerne i rerdien af de enkelte andes aluta oer for den europreiske regningsenhed (1 EMRE = 0, gram finguld, dog saledes at centralkursen for de flydende alutaer er justeret i forhold til den faktiske udikling i markedskursen), iser der sig for Danniark og Belgiens edkommende at rere urendret stigning i lenomkostningerne i forhold til beregningen i nationale alutaer; i Belgien grelder dette ogsa stigningen i 1973, mens den i Danmark udger 8,5 %. For Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland og Nederlandene fremkommer der strerkere stigninger (12,5 % og 14,5 % i forhold til 12,5 % og 11 % i 1973). Derimod er de procentise rendringer for Frankrig, rland, talien og Det forenede Kongerige mindre end efter udregningen i national aluta (ca. 6%, 13,5 %, 4,5% og 21% oerfor 7,5 %, 7%,2% og 8% i 1973). USA er lenomkostningerne udtrykt i EMRE steget lige sa strerkt som i national aluta, mens de i 1973 faldt med ca. 10,5 %.

5 A NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON Unadjusted CE EG EC EF. lkke scesonkorrigerede tal 200 Adjusted indices Scesonkorrigerede tal CE EG EC EF 190 r :l...." _,...,.... &.,,.,,. F M A M A 0 H D 140 l l F M A M A 0 H D The particularly marked drop in industrial production in the final quarter of 1974 continued in the first two months of this year. There are some signs, howeer, that the downward trend is slackening, though in part because of special factors. Following widespread cuts in working hours and temporary shutdowns in late 1974 and early 1975, some industries appear to hae returned to more normal working hours, since then especially as the weather has been particularly mild, benefitting all outdoor work. n addition, the flow of new orders for public works has gien a slight boost to building actiity in seeral member countries, especially Germany. There is a fair chance that the decline in stock leels and final demand in some manufacturing industries and in the distributie trades has already bottomed out or will do so shortly. This is particularly true for iron and steel products and for passenger cars and commercial ehicles. n their replies to business sureys, carried out in January, managements in some member countries (Germany, France and Belgium) were a little more sanguine in their assessment of future production trends than in the preious months. Den srerligt udprregede tilbagegang i industriproduktionen i foregaende ars fjerde kartal fortsatte i dette ars to ferste maneder. Der er dog isse tegn pa en srekkelse i den nedadgaende tendens, som imidlertid til dels skyldes srerlige faktorer. Efter de talrige arbejdstidsforkortelser og midlertidige driftsindstillinger i slutningen af 1974 og begyndelsen af 1975 synes man i de felgende uger inden for nogle brancher igen at rere endt tilbage til en mere normal arbejdstid, idet specielt ejrforholdene har reret usredanligt gode, hilket har begunstiget alt udenders arbejde. Desuden har en fomget ordretilgang inden.for offentlige arbejder i adskillige medlemslande, isrer i ForbundsrepublikkenTyskland, stimuleret aktiiteten inden for byggesektoren. Det er ikke udelukket, at nedgangen i lagerbeholdninger og efterspergsel i forbrugerleddet inden for isse fabrikationsindustrier og inden for handelen har sat eller snart ii srette bundrekord. Dete grelder isrer jemog stalprodukter samt person og lastogne. besarelseme i forbindelse med konjunkturundersegelder bedemmer de erhersdriende i nogle medlemsstater (Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, Frankrig og Belgien) produktionsiklingen i januar noget gunstigere sammenlignet med de foregaende maneder.

6 NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON A Adjusted indices Scesonkorrigerede tal l19nl l l ltalie 220 BelgiqueBelgiii Lux...,bourg United Kingdom 200 r ,.,... "'.1 \:..., """" ["...._' _\ _,, ""' L ' ".. _. V' ',...,.,.. _,.... "'' r "., 1,.. " "",.,. \ "i l '\.f" \ J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND Adjusted indices Scesonkorrigerede tal ] l1912l 1 1 l1973l l1974l Deutochlend Nederland lrlonde...,.,..,._ Den!nlfk V' V' "' 1 Fronce.J#.,.,,.,..., J; ""' " r",. ', ' ' _"" '..._ """' J 1... \ "'r..<:? r 4 r,: r.,..;...,. ',_:! r. J...!... ' '...,.,J ' 1 1 J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N 0. J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D '

7 A2 UNEMPLOYMENT (thousands) ANTAL ARBEJDSL0SE (i tusinde) f Donmarlt reland Nederland f llelgiquebelgli ,.,.. l1972l! J.o' r...,. ' _,. l1973l l1974 )..!..,.,.,..,"'" 1 1, 1 f. r """ '... '.... ' J ' "'_?, ' ,. _..,. r _., ,... L... _,.... " r...,.1""" '" 1' 100 BR DeutsChland France ltalia United Kingdom. l l l J FMAMJ J ASOHDJ FMAMJ J ASOHDJ FMAM J JASON OJ FMAMJ J ASOHD The labour market situation as a whole has deteriorated further since the beginning of n some countries, howeer, the tendency shows signs of changing slightly, probably helped by the exceptionally mild weather. n Germany, for instance, the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed in January fell once again, but it should be noted that seasonal adjustment raises difficult problems in the present situation. n taly, the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed seems to hae steadied since October, but shorttime working has become ery widespread. n the other Community countries, in particular Denmark, the United Kingdom and reland, the number of unemployed continued to climb at the beginning of the year. Recent trends in unfilled acancies also appear to differ quite sharply from country to country. While the seasonally adjusted number fell further in the Netherlands, it rose in France in December and in Germany in January. Howeer, it would appear that in the Community as a whole the demand for manpower is generally no longer contracting as rapidly as preiously. Situationen pa arbejdsmarkedet forrerredes ogsa i begyndelsen af nogle ande harder dog ist sig tegn til en sag rendring i tendensen, som de usredanlige ejrforhold ganske ist kan hae bidraget til. Saledes er det sresonudjrenede arbejdsleshedstal for januar igen gaet tilbage i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, idet sresonudjreningen i den nurerende situation dog rejser anskelige problemer. ltalien synes det sresonudlignede arbejdsleshedstal siden oktober at hae haft en stabil tendens, ganske ist har nedsat,arbejdstid her antaget et meget stort omfang. de andre ande i Frellesskabet, isrer i Danmark, i Det forenede Kongerige og rland er arbejdsleshedstallet steget yderligere i begyndelsen af aret. Ogsa den seneste udikling inden for de edige stillinger synes at rere forl0bet ganske forskelligt i de enkelte medlemsstater. Mens det sresonudlignende tali Nederlandene endnu en ganger faldet, er det i december steget i Frankrig og i januar i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland. Dog synes arbejdskraftbehoet i al almindelighed inden for hele Frellesskabet ikke lrengere at mindskes sa hurtigt som i den foregaende periode.

8 CONSUMER PRCES FORBRUGERPRSER A = B R Deutschland France!lalla Belg que Belg1e luxembourg '7 200 Dan mark reland Nederland United Kingdom """"_,.,.,.,. c.,.; f, ::.,...,...:::,.:;: ( 140 1"" _ _,;;:;:; ":... ' ',....,,..,.,._ ' f l 1., _..... ; f. 100 J F la AlA J J AS 0 N 0 J F la AlA J J AS 0 N OJ F la AlA J J AS 0 N D J F la AlA J J AS 0 N D The easing in the upward moement of consumer prices experienced by most member countries towards the end of last year did not continue in January. n all the Community countries except Denmark and Luxembourg the rise in the cost of liing accelerated again ery distinctly in the first few weeks of the year. The spate of price increases affected a wide ariety of goods, including een motor ehicles despite the slackness of demand in this industry. Some basic foods also rose in price, for instance sugar in taly and the United Kingdom, bread and milk in France and meat in Belgium. Howeer, part of this renewed upsurge can be put down to the fact that prices and charges for certain goods and serices are in many cases traditionally set at new leels at the beginning of the year. From 1 January the French Goernment raised the prices of the main energy products ; gas, electricity and petroleum products for industrial and domestic use. n Germany, the prices of water, gas and electricity, coal and some postal and banking serices rose. n Belgium and more recently in taly, postal and telephone charges were increased. n the United Kingdom the price of petrol went up in January following an increase in alue added tax, contributing 0.5;; to the considerable rise in the retail price index recorded in this month. Den srekkelse i stigningen i forbrugerpriser, sorn. de fleste medlemslande kunne fastslas hen mod slutningen af det forl0bne ar, har ikke gjort sig greldende for januar Bortset fra Danmark og Luxembourg har stigningen i leeomkostningerne i arets f0rste uger igen meget tydeligt taget fart i alle ande i Frellesskabet. Prisforh0jelserne, som ses i stort omfang, omfattede idt froskellige arer, og grelder endog lastogne trods den sage eftersp0rgsel inden for denne branche. Ogsa igtige nreringsmidler er bleet dyrere, som f.eks. sukker i talien og i Det forenede Kongerige, bmd og mrelk i Frankrig og k0d i Belgien. Ganske ist kunne forh0jelsen til dels henf0res til den omstrendighed, at det ofte er skik og brug at fastsrette nye priser og tariffer for bestemte arer og tjenesteydelser ed arets begyndelse. Fra 1. januar har den franske regering sat priserne op pa de igtigste energikilder : gas, elektricitet og raolieprodukter til industri og husholdning. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland er samtidig priserne pa and, gas og el samt kul og isse af postresenets og bankernes tjenesteydelser steget. Belgien og senest i ltalien er post og teletakster bleet sat i ejret. Det forenede Kongerige er benzinen bleet dyrere i januar som f0lge af stigning i merrerdiafgiften; denne forh0jelse sarer til 0,5 ;;, af den betydelige stigning i detailprisindekset for denne maned.

9 A4 BALANCE OF TRADE HANDELSBALANCE Mio Eur 119? BR Deutschland Denmark Nederland UEBL,...,,,_.. 1 ( ;!\? li\ \1\ ,.,... r "' '... :;:::::::._... '.. """'...,, """""""...ot! L [:!"" '"'::l.;:_ :r fv """"' 200 \ r\ France reland ltalla United Kingdom '... ' \..., j l 1 j l JFMAMJJAS 0 H D J F M A M J J A S 1 \,. '... \..,_ \ \, r ' \ \ ' " \ \. \..,1 ' "\ '"" \ J j J 1 0 H D J F M A M J J A S 0 H 0 J F M A M JJ SOHD '\ Despite a general lack of buoyancy in exports, the Community's trade balance has continued to improe in recent months because, with domestic demand ery weak, the growth in imports has been een slower in most countries. Between the second quarter of 1974, when the Community's trade deficits were at their largest after the full impact of the oil price increases, and the final quarter of the year, the aerage monthly deficit for the Community as a whole narrowed by more than million units of account (EUR). The sharpest recoery was in taly, where the trade balance excluding trade in oil and oil products was in surplus in December. The United Kingdom also recorded an appreciable reduction in its trade deficit in January. n France and reland the underlying improement seems to be continuing although both countries recorded slightly larger trade deficits in January. The Danish trade balance deteriorated a little in December, after the considerable progress made between April and Noember. Despite the continued weakness of exports, the seasonallyadjusted trade surplus of Germany remained at a high leel in December, due to the sharp fall in imports. Trods den i almindelighed sage stigning i Frellesskabets udf0rsel, forbedredes handelsbalancen yderligere i de seneste maneder, idet indf0rslen ide fleste ande med meget sag indenlandsk eftersp0rgsel er okset endnu langsommere. Fra andet kartal i 1974, hor handelsbalanceunderskuddene i Frellesskabet ar st0rst som f0lge af den fulde irkning af prisstigningerne pa raolie, og til sidste kartal i 1974 er Frellesskabets gennemsnitlige manedlige underskud pa handelsbalancen i alt mindsket med mere end 1 mia regningsenheder (EMRE). Den kraftigste bedring iste sig i talien, hor handelsbalancen i december nar bortses fra olieprodukter, endog udidste et oerskud. OgsA Det forenede Kongerige opnaede i januar en yderligere tydelig reduktion af underskuddet pa handelsbalancen. Bade i Frankrig og rland fortsatte forbedringen, pa trods af en lidt mindre gunstig tendens for begge andes edkommende i januar. Efter den tydelige fremgang, der noteredes fra april til noember, forrerredes den danske handelsbalance ganske lidt i december. Pa trods af den stadige tilbagegang i Forbundsrepublikken Tysklands export forble dette lands oerskud, som f0lge af et fortsat strerkt fald i importen, pa et h0jt nieau i december.

10 MPORTS from nonmember countries MPORT fra ikkemedlemslande C 1963 = 100 :: "c _ :G ec'j' 119=, 1 '1"J. l,'ll19=72l l l l l l lf1 =97=3 rl l 1 1,11 11,974lll l V BR Deutschland "'. Francie 500 ltalia ) 460 rr1r+4+++) 420 tlrt l+j.)wj 1 K j ln'l 380 rrrrr++++, JJr' J 3Mr ,ptf 3oor+4r++= rr1r+4++.r+4 " 260 rr4r4++4 J j 240 tl,.,. jr... t"" ::;;;l;;r.._ +_,..._..._o;;;o;;;: + =:A...,l,J +++l1l 220 rr4r4++,++_j 200 "' ,! """ 100 _. _..1_.1_1_._11 1_.1111_J J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND ( n recent months the growth in the alue of Community imports from nonmember countries has slowed further, leading to a decline in olume terms. The main causes are the persisting weakness of domestic demand in all member countries, the fall in the olume of oil imports (ranging from 5 to 10% for the arious countries in 1974), the current stability of oil prices and further drops in other raw material prices. With these raw material prices expected to go on easing and the prospects for economic actiity judged to be unfaourable, stocks of raw material hae not been replenished in recent months. n Germany the alue of imports of semi manufactures in particular declined further ; more recently there has been a fall in olume too. n France and the United Kingdom there was the same downward tendency, aboe all in raw materials and semimanufactures; quite generally the fall was largest in nonoil products. n taly, the sharp rise in the alue of imports which was eident in the autumn has slowed down, mainly on account of the decline in imports of intermediate products and to a lesser extent of capital goods. de seneste maneder har Frellesskabets indf0rsel fra ikkemedlemslande rerdimressigt udist en endnu ringere stigning end tidligere; mrengdemressigt er den endog faldet. Som de igtigste grunde anf0res: Den edarende sage indenlandske eftersp0rgsel i aile medlemsstater, den absolutte _tilbagegang i mrengden af importeret raolie (for de enkdte lande fra 5 til 10 % i 1974), raoliens 0jeblikkelige prisstabilitet og yderligere prisfald pa rastoffer. Da der entes _ yderligere prisfald pa dtstoffer, og udsigteme til 0konomisk aktiitet ikke synes gunstige, er rastoflagrene i de seneste maneder ikke bleet fyldt op. Tyskland aftog importrerdien yderligere, isrer for halfabrikata; i den seneste tid er der ogsa noteret en mrengdemressig tilbagegang i indf0rslen. Frankrig og Det forenede Kongerige g0r den samme tendens sig greldende f0rst og fremmest for rastoffer og halfabrikata; helt generelt ar nedgangen st0rst for andre produkter end raolieprodukteme. talien aftog den strerke rerdimressige stigning, som i efteraret kunne no teres for importen; hertil har isrer tilbagegangen i indf0rslen afhalfabrikata og i mindre omfang af inesteringsgoder bidraget.

11 C2 TERMS OF TRADE BYTTEFORHOLD 1963 = ( CE EG EC ltalia Nederland UEBL United Kingdom,...,...,. r..._._. '> e... l l "'.,..."\. '\ =:::::::::: rc:;;.,.::!; """"!\.', "' ' '.._. \ , \" B. R. Deutschland f reland France Oanmark... t... # r """" ""' "''c: 1 1 li f....j,, \ ' r... \,... "... ' ', [\\ j '\.,.. \, ' J F M A M J J A S 0 N 0 J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J,J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D n recent months the gradual improement in the terms of trade has continued in most Community countries. The persistent weakness of demand on world markets has caused import prices of many industrial raw materials to drop, and this has c:urbed the rise in total import costs. The market prices of nonferrous metals in particular were well below the record leels reached in the spring of 1974; by the beginning of February copper and zinc had fallen by more than 60%, and lead and tin by 29 and 25o. Steel prices hae also slipped distinctly in recent months as economic actiity has slowed and demand has fallen in the main industrial countries. Meanwhile the prices of the Community countries' exports of manufactured goods hae continued to climb rapidly, although a little more slowly recently ; in general these increases are higher than domestic inflation rates. The rise in talian export prices has been especially marked; expressed in lire, towards the end of 1974 they were more than 40% up on a year earlier. de foregaende maneder fortsatte den gradise forbedring af bytteforholdet i de fleste af landene i Frellesskabet. Den edarende srekkelse, som har prreget efterspergslen pa erdensmarkedet, ferte til faldende importpriser pa mange industrielle rastoffer ; dered bremsedes prisstigningerne pa importen som helhed. srer a markedspriserne pa nonferro metaller tydeligt under den i foraret 1974 naede rekordh0jde. begyndelsen af februar a priserne pa kobber og zink mere end 60 % under deres maksimum, og priserne pa bly og zink ar faldet med henholdsis 29 % og 25 o. Ogsa stalprisen er tydeligt srekket i de sidste maneder, efter at den ekonomiske aktiitet er taget af, og efterspergslen er dalet i de igtigste industrilande. midlertid stiger priserne igen hurtigt pa de af Frellesskabets ande udferte frerdigarer, omend i den seneste tid noget langsommere, prisstigningerne er i almindelighed hejere end de indenlandske inflationstakter. Stigningen i de italienske eksportpriser ar srerlig udprreget ; udtrykt i lire ar den hen imod slutningen af 1974 mere end 40 % hejere end aret tidligere.

12 t, WHOLESALE PRCES ENGROSPRSER C = l1974l,, BR Deutschland pt7 Nederland Belgique Belgiii,;"... ""' Danmarit France reland ltalia United Kingdom...,..,,.,., 'l ;;ii"" A r,..,., 189,8,,i 17,.. r!' '., {{; ;,.' rj, J FM AM J J AS 0 N OJ FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N D The upward moement of wholesale prices in the Community as a whole eased further in the final quarter of last year. The underlying slowdown compared with the preious quarters was sharpest in Belgium, Germany, France and taly. The cause was probably the continuing slide in the world market prices of the main imported industrial raw materials. n some industries, howeer, the sluggish trend of domestic demand also appears to hae led to a considerable rise in stocks and to a falloff in the rate of increase of producer prices for semimanufactures and finished goods and in particular prices of consumer goods. The constant upward pressure of production costs stemming from domestic factors continues to affect prices and leaes little latitude for price cuts. n the United Kingdom, wholesale prices were still climbing ery rapidly at the end of last year, though no longer as sharply as earlier on. Den srekkelse, der har prreget stigningerne i engrospriserne, har ogsa gjort sig greldende i hele Frellesskabet i arets fjerde kartal. Tendensen til et langsommere tempo i forhold til de foregaende kartaler ar tydeligst i Belgien, i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, i Frankrig og i talien. Denne udikling kan formentlig f0res tilbage til de fortsat faldende erdensmarkedspriser pa de igtigste importerede industrielle rastoffer. nden for isse sektorer synes ganske ist ogsa den srek.kede hjemlige eftersp0rgsel at hae f0rt til en strerk opbygning af lagrene og at hae beirket et langsommere stigningstempo i produktionspriserne pa halog helfabrikata og isrer i priserne pa forbrugsgoder. Det pa interne arsager beroende uafbrudte opsing i produktionsomkostningerne pairker fortsat priserne og gier ringe spillerum for prissrenkninger. Det forenede Kongerige er engrospriserne igen steget meget hurtigt ed udgangen af foregaende ar, dog noget langsommere i sammenligning med de tidligere notenede strerke stigninger.

13 C4 RETAL SALES DETALOMSA:TNNG 1970 = Denmark B. R. Deutochlend France reland ta lie Nederland Belgique Belgii UnitedKingdom , ' 1974 \ ' '\ '\,_,..., ',, \, '\ f.' r _ \ 1972 \_ 100,.,_,.., ; \ " 974, " 1972 ' ; T.., l_r..... [rj ;" T _,...,....,... 7'... 73, \ ' JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJ JASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND n most member countries the falloff in retail sales became more marked in the closing weeks of last year. On top of price increases, which had already led to a fall in purchases of certain products, came the effects of losses of income as a result of higher unemployment and slacker actiity. Generally speaking, the uncertainty oer the economic outlook for the months ahead has prompted consumers to cut back their spending; consumers' expenditure at the end of the year was well down on normal leels. Retail sales in the fourth quarter showed a moderate rise in terms of alue, but in most member countries their olume increased only slightly or een fell. Particularly hit hae been sales of domestic appliances, furniture, clothing and, in some countries, een food. The number of new motor ehicle registrations in the Community was een down on the ery low leel a year ago. n Germany, howeer, an upward trend is isible; in January new registrations were 20% higher than a year earlier, when the figure had, admittedly, been relatiely low. There was an een sharper rise in Denmark, following the remoal of the surtax on cars. Contrary to the general trend retail sales in the United Kingdom rose strongly in January, mainly influenced by the faster rate of increase in wages during the last few months. de fleste medlemslande er srekkelsen i detailhandelens omsretning i de sidste uger af det forl0bne ar bleet tydeligere. Til de prisforh0jelser, som allerede hade f0rt til tilbageholdenhed. oer for bestemte arer, f0jede ig irkningserne af tabte mdtregter som f0lge af st0rre arbe]dsl0shed og nedsat 0konomisk aktiitet. Generelt har uisheden om den 0konomiske udikling i de kommende maneder foranlediget de priate husholdninger til yderligere indskrrenkning af deres udgifter; forbrugsudgifterne la ed arets slutning tydeligt under det normale nieau. fjerde kartal er rerdien af detailhandelsomsretningen ganske ist steget moderat, dog har den mrengdemressige stigning i de fleste medlemslande kun reret sag eller er endog gaet tilbage. Srekkelsen bemrte isrer omsretnin$en af husholdningsmaskiner, m0bler, beklredning og, 1 isse ande, tilmed f0dearer. Antallet af indregistrerede nye automobiler ligger for Frellesskabet endog under det allerede meget lae nieau for det foregaende ar. denne henseende kan der dog i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland spores en stigende ten dens; i januar oersteg indregistreringerne det tilsarende, men forholdsis lae nieau for det foregaende ar med ca. 20 %; en endnu tydeligere opgang ble noteret i Danmark efter afskaffelsen af den forel0bige indregistreringsafgift. modsretning til den almindelige tendens, steg detailomsretningen strerkt i januar i Det forenede,kongerige, som resultat af den forstrerkede stigning i 10nindtregterne isrer i de sen ere maneder.

14 WAGES (in industry) April 1970 = 100 L0NNNGER (i industrien) april 1970 = 100 C l (1 B. R. Deutschland France luxembourg United Kingdom r, :_.. _.,_ j7... _ :;::;... "' Danmark reland 200 ltalia Nederland Belgique Belgie ' = _... """ _..., _...:.,.,...!, i""' =...! id. ; k? [:7. t,...""'7 "'.A..:. '. 1' )' ll A...,. b J J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJJASON. OJ FMAMJ J ASOND The upward moement of wages in the Community was een more rapid in 1974 than in Proisional estimates suggest that, taking the aerage for the year, income from paid employment per person employed in industry, including building and construction, rose more sharply than the year before. The rise was some 22% in the United Kingdom (compared with 14% in 1973), some 21.5% in Denmark (17.5% in 1973) and some 19% in France, reland and Belgium (13%, 16% and 15% in 1973). Less marked increases were recorded in taly (17% compared with 21 %) and Germany (11% compared with 13%); in the Netherlands the rise remained the same as in 1973 at about 15%. Gross alue added per person employed once again increased much more slowly than wages and salaries and less than in 1973 : taking the aerage for the year, the adance in Belgium was 5.5% (as against 6.4% in 1973), 4% in France and the Netherlands (as against 5% in 1973), 2.5% in Denmark and Germany (as against 8 and 6% in 1973) and 0.5% in taly (as against 7.5% in 1973). n reland gross alue added probably sbowed no growth between 1973 and 1974, following a 6.5% increase in 1973, and in the United Kingdom there was a drop of some 3.5% compared with a 6% rise the preious year. L0nstigningen i Frellesskabet har i aret 1974 i forhold til 1973 ist tendens til yderligere at ga i ejret. Efter forel0bige urderinger skulle indkomsterne fra l0nnet arbejde pr. beskreftiget i industrien indbefattet bygge og anlregsirksomhed i gennemsnit pa arsbasis i de fleste medlemslande rere steet kraftigere end aret f0r: Det forenede Kongerige ca. 22% (mod 14% i 1973), i Danmark ca. 21,5% (mod 17,5 %), i Frankrig, rland og Belgien ca. 19 % (mod henholdsis 13 %, 16% og 15 %). Derimod har stigningen i ltalien pa 17% (mod 21 %) og i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland pa 11,5% (mod 13 %) reret mindre udprreget; i Nederlandene synes stigningen i forhold til 1973 at hae holdt sig uforandret pa ca. 15% Stigningen i rerditilreksten pr. beskreftiget har pany reret tydeligt sagere end arbejdsindkomsterne og laere end stigningen for aret 1973: Den gennemsnitlige stigning pa arsbasis ligger i Belgien pa 5,5% (mod 6,4% i 1973), i Frankrig og i Nederlandene pa 4% (mod 5% i 1973), i Danmark og i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland pa 2,5 % (mod henholdsis 8% og 6 %), i ltalien 0,5 % (mod 7,5 % i 1973). rland er bruttorerditilreksten efter en stigning pa 6,5% for aret 1973 nreppe steget i 1974, og i Det forenede Kongerige er den efter en stigning pa 6% det foregaende ar endog faldet med ca. 3,5%

15 RESULTS OF THE BUSNESS SURVEY 1 ) OF COMMUNTY NDUSTRY RESULTATER AF KONJUNKTURUNDERS0GELSEN 1 ) NDUSTRSEKTOREN FJELLESSKA:BET +40 %of answers % af sar Total orderbooks Bedommelse af den samlede ordrebeholdning , _ L'h._... " == ltalia... "" CE EG EC EF 8 R Deutschland _ France " " Nederland seliquj"se;gii ' 0 ' _,,..., L '. ',.,.. k \ ). " \', t \ r7,... \ \"' ' '"',...,_ ' \\,\\ \ ' JFMAMJJASOND JF MAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND Assessment of stocks of finished goods Bedommelse af frerdigarelagre +40 J FMAMJ J A SONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND

16 Expectations : production Produktionsforentninger +40 %of answers % af sar BR Doutschlond 30 France ltolio Nederland 40 J FM_ AM J J AS 0 N 0 J FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N OJ FM AM J J AS 0 N 0 Gr.ap and show businessmen's iews of their total orderbooks and their stocks Q(finished goods, represented as threemonth moing aerages of the aif(erence between the percentage of those who find them "aboe normal" ( + ) and the percentage of those who find them "below normal" (). Graph D shows threemonth moing aerages ofthe difference (as percentage of replies) between the number of businessmen who expected production to be up ( + ) and those who expected it to be down (): The table below shows businessmen's assessments of their total orderbooks, foreign orderbooks and stocks of finished goods during the last three months, ( + ) being aboe normal, ( = ) being normal, ( ) being below normal. t also shows whether, they expect the following three or four months to bring an increase ( + ), no change ( = ) or decrease ()in their production and in their selling prices. Detailed comments are gien in "Results of the business surey carried out among heads of enterprises in the Community", published three times a year. Diagrammerne og gengier tre maneders glidende gennemsnit af forskelscerdien melem irksomhedsledernes sar»storre«( + ) og»mindre«() edrorende ordrebestand og fcerdigarelagre. Diagram iser ligeledes i form af tre maneders glidende gennemsnit forskelscerdien ( procent af sarene) melem irksomhedsledernes forentninger til en»forogelse«( + ) eller en >>Jormindskelse«( ) af produktionen. Nedenstaende tabel gengier for de seneste tre maneder irksomhedsledernes bedommese af, om de samlede ordrebeholdninger, udlandsordrer og fcerdigarelagre ar forholdsis store ( +), nor male ( =) eller for holds is sma (). Desuden er irksomhedsledernes forentninger om oksende ( + ), nogenlunde ucendrede ( =) eller aftagende ( ) produktion og salgsprisen i de folgende tre eller fire maneder anfort. Udforlige kommentarer findes i»resultaterne af konjunkturundersogelsen hos irksomhedsledere i Fcellessk_abet«der offentliggores tre gange om aret. BR France ltalia Belgique Luxem Nederland EEC Deutschland Belgie bourg E0F 0 N D 0 N D 0 N D 0 N D 0 N D 0 N D 0 N D Total orderbooks = Den samlede ordre beholdning Export orderbooks = Den udenlandskeordrebeholdning Stocks of finished goods = Frerdigarelagre Expectations: production Produktionsforentningerne = Expectations: selling prices Salgsprisforentninger = ) Excluding construction, food, beerages and tobacco ' ) Ekskusie bygge og anlcegsirksomhed, ncerings og nydelsesmiddelindustri.

17 Obserations on th Graphs Bemrkninger til diagrammerne A 1 ndustrial production: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities (excluding construction, food, beerages and tobacco). reland and Denmark: quarterly index of OECD. Community: estimated index. Seasonally adjusted indices: threemonth moing aerage. A 1 ndustriproduktion: ndeks fra Det statistiske Kantor for De europaiske Fallesskaber ( eksklusie bygge og anlagsirksomhed, narings og nydelsesmidler). rland og Danmark: kartalsindeks OECD. Fallesskabet: beregnet indeks. Sasonkorrigeret indeks: tre maneders glidende gennemsnit. A 2 Unemployment: Three month moing aerages of the figures adjusted for seasonal ariations by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. France: number of persons seeking employment. taly: the cure represents the number of persons registered at labour exchanges; this does not correspond to the number of unemployed. Luxembourg: negligible. Belgium: completely unemployed persons receiing unemployment benefit. A 3 Consumer prices: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities. A4 Balance of trade: ncluding intracommunity trade. Calculated on the basis of the import and export figures adjusted for seasonal ariations by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Denmark: Source: Danmarks Statistik. reland: Source: Central Statistics Office. Threemonth moing aerages. Exports fob, imports cif; excluding monetary gold. Cures for recent months may be partly based on estimates. Belgium and Luxembourg: common cure. A2 Antal arbejdslese: Tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit af sasonkorrigerede tal fra Det statistiske Kantor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. Frankrig: anta arbejdssogende. talien: kuren angier antal personer, registreret pd arbejdsanisningskontorer; dette sarer ikke til antal arbejdsose. Luxembourg: ubetydelig arbejdsloshed. Belgien: fuldtids edige personer, som modtager arbejdsloshedsunderstottelse. A 3 Forbrugerpriser: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kantor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. A4 Handelsbalance: nklusie handel indenfor Falesskabet. Beregnet pd grundlag af tal for import og eksport sasonkorrigeret af Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. Danmark: Kilde: Danmarks Statistik. rland: Kilde: Central Statistics Office. Tre maneders glidende gennemsnit. Eksport fo.b., import c.if., ekskusie monetart guld. Kurer kan for de seneste maneder are deis baseret po. skon. Belgien og Luxembourg: falles kure. C 1 mports: Seasonally adjusted indices of alues in Eur proided by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Threemonth moing aerages. Cures for recent months may be partly based on estimates. Belgium and Luxembourg:. common cure.. No figures yet aailable for the United Kingdom, reland and Denmark. C 2 Terms of trade: ndex of aerage export prices diided by the index of aerage import prices. Threemonth moing aerages. Source SO EC. C 3 Wholesale Prices: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Germany and Netherlands: excluding VAT. C 4 Retail sales: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities. (Values in national currency.) Threemonth moing aerage. Total retail trade. France: sales of department stores and similar. United Kingdom: index relates to Great Britain only. Cures for recent months may be partly based on estimates. C 5 Wages: ndices from SOEC. Hourly gross wages of workers. United Kingdom, reland and Denmark: indices from OECD (1970 = OO). The latest data may be based partly on estimates. C 1 mport: Sasonkorrigeret indeks af ardier i Eur udfardiget af Det statistiske Kantor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. Tre maneders glidende gennemsnit. Kurer kan for de seneste mdneder are deis base ret pd sken. Begien og Luxembourg: fales kure. ngen tal endnu tilgangelige for England, rland og Danmark. C2 Bytteforhold: ndeks af gennemsnits eksportpriser diideret med gennemsnits importpriser. + Tre mdneders gidende gennemsnit. Kilde: SKEF. C 3 Engrospriser: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kantor for De europaiske F allesskaber. Tyskland og Nederlandene: eksklusie MOMS. C 4 Detailomsaetning: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kantor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. (ardi i national auta) Tre maneders glidende gennemsnit. Samlet detailomsatning. Frankrig: sag fra stormagasiner og lignende. England: indeks omfatter kun Storbritanien. Kurer kan for de seneste mdneder are deis baseret pd skon. C 5 Lonninger: ndeks udarbejder af SKEF. Bruttotimelenninger for arbejdere. England, rland og Danmark: ndeks udarbejdet af OECD ( 1970 = 100). De seneste tal kan are deis baseret pa skon. 1 Eur = gm of fine gold ' g finguld