Transkript

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8 ETS i =1 ETS i = 0

9 Y it (1) Y it (0) α AT T = E[Y i1 (1) Y i1 (0) ETS i =1], α AT T E[Y i1 (1) ETS i =1] [Y i1 (0) ETS i =1] α AT T α biased AT T = E[ Y i (1) ETS i =1]+E[Y 0i ETS i =1] E[Y 0i ETS i =0]. X i

10 α AT T = E[Y i1 (1) Y i0 (1) X i,ets i =1] = 1 N 1 j I 1 {(Y jt1 (1) Y jt0 (0)) k I 0 ω jk (Y kt1 (0) Y kt0 (0))} I 1 I 0 N 1 j k j ω jk.

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15 E K Q = E + K ρ ρ ρ ρ P = a bq

16 (a bq) Q W EE Q W E a 2bQ W E a W E K ρ a 2bK ρ >W 2b E E = 0 ( a WE1 2 ) r ( a WE2 ) KWK [ a W E1 K ρ] [ W 2b E1 1 a WE2 K ρ] W 1+r 2b E2 a 2bK ρ >W E2 a 2bK ρ >W E1 Π2(K) = ( a WE1 ) (a 1+r bkρ ) K ρ KW K [ a W E1 K ρ] W 2b E1 a 2bK ρ W E2 a 2bK ρ 1 µ µ ρ >W E1 [ W K + ρk ρ 1 W E1 + 1 ] 1+r W E2 =0 K = [ WE1 + 1 W K 1+r W E2 W E2 a 2bK ρ >W E2 ρ K E ρ ] 1 1 ρ

17 E 1 = a W E1 2b [ WE1 + 1 W K 1+r W E2 ρ ] ρ 1 ρ a 2bK ρ >W E1 a 2bK ρ >W E2 ( ) 2 [ a WE1 a WE1 Π1(K) = 0.5 KW K 2 2b K ρ ] W E1 W K = ρk1 ρ 1 W E1 K1 = ( ρwe1 W K ) 1 1 ρ Π1(K1) Π2(K) =(K K1) W K +[K1 ρ K ρ ] W E r ( a WE2 2 ) [ ] a WE2 K ρ W E2 1+r 2b Π1(K) Π2(K) > 0 K K1 Π1(K) Π2(K) = 1 1+r 1 1+r ( a WE2 2 ( ) 2 a WE [ a WE2 2 1+r 2b ( ) 2 [ a WE2 a WE b ) [ ] a WE2 K ρ W E2 1+r 2b ] W E2 > 0 ] W E2 > 0

18 W E2 < ab 1+b a 1+b W E2 > 0 b b E1 1 (W E1 )= a W E1 2b K1 ρ = a W E1 2b ( ρwe1 W K ) ρ 1 ρ E W E W E2 >W E E = a W E 2b [ ( ) ] ρ WE ρ 1+r ρ W K ( ρwe E1 1 (W E ) E = W K ) ρ [ ( ) ] ρ 1 ρ WE ρ + 1+r ρ W K ρ < 1 ( ρwe = W K ) ρ [ 1 ρ ( 1+ 1 ) ρ ] 1 ρ 1 1+r

19 Energy consumption relative to Energy Price in Period 2 ρ =0.2 W E1 =1 a =20 b =0.7 W K =1 r =10

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23 Mean Std. Dev. Std. Dev. (Within) (Between) ETS (Treatment Dummy) GHG Emissions (1000 tonnes) Number of Employees Carbon Factor Intensity Coal Share Oil Share Gas Share Steam Share Multiple Plants (Share) # Observations # Plants # Firms 9494 Mean Mean Difference ETS Non-ETS (Treatment Control) GHG Emissions *** Employment *** Carbon Factor Intensity *** Coal Share *** Oil Share *** Gas Share *** Steam Share *** Multi-Plant *** # Observations # Plants # Firms

24 All ETS plants Only ETS plants Part ETS plants Non-ETS plants in ETS firms Mean Std. Dev Mean Std. Dev Mean Std. Dev Mean Std. Dev GHG Emissions Employment Carbon Factor Intensity Coal Share Oil Share Gas Share Steam Share Multiple Plants (Share) # Observations # ETS plants # ETS firms

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26 Panel A: GHG Emissions Δln(GHG Emissions) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) No Restriction 100% 50% 25% 10% Pre-Announcement SATT (0.0147) (0.0147) Announcement Phase SATT (0.0131) (0.0132) (0.0132) (0.0134) (0.0141) Phase I ( ) SATT (0.0252) (0.0255) (0.0261) (0.0266) (0.0282) Phase II ( ) SATT *** *** *** *** *** (0.0349) (0.035) (0.0351) (0.0378) (0.0418) Panel B: Employment Δln(Employment) Pre-Announcement SATT ( ) (0.01) (0.01) (0.0101) (0.0103) Announcement Phase SATT *** *** *** *** *** (0.0141) (0.0141) (0.0142) (0.0141) (0.0147) Phase I ( ) SATT * * * (0.0247) (0.0249) (0.0253) (0.0257) (0.0273) Phase II ( ) SATT *** *** *** *** *** (0.034) (0.0335) (0.0332) (0.0342) (0.0369) Panel B: Carbon Intensity Δln(GHG/Employment) Pre-Announcement SATT (0.016) (0.0161) (0.0161) (0.0163) (0.0168) Announcement Phase SATT *** *** *** *** *** (0.0157) (0.0157) (0.0157) (0.0159) (0.0166) Phase I ( ) SATT (0.0271) (0.0275) (0.028) (0.0289) (0.0309) Phase II ( ) SATT (0.0356) (0.0359) (0.0368) (0.0389) (0.0441) Observations Clusters

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28 (1) (2) (3) (4) Coal Share Oil Share Gas Share Steam Share Pre-Announcement SATT ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Announcement Phase SATT ** * ** * ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Phase I ( ) SATT ** * ** (0.0125) (0.014) (0.0194) ( ) Phase II ( ) SATT *** ** *** (0.0164) (0.0199) (0.0258) ( ) # Observations # Clusters

29 Panel A: GHG Emissions Δln(GHG Emissions) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Pre-Announcement SATT *** (0.0302) (0.0304) (0.0162) (0.0226) Announcement Phase SATT (0.0237) (0.0222) (0.0183) (0.0227) Phase I ( ) SATT * (0.0403) (0.0411) (0.0395) (0.0507) Phase II ( ) SATT *** * *** (0.0645) (0.0691) (0.0552) (0.0661) ln(ghg Emissions) Panel B: Employment Δln(Employment) Pre-Announcement SATT * * (0.0157) (0.0158) (0.0132) (0.0201) Announcement Phase SATT *** ** *** * ** (0.0255) (0.0241) (0.019) (0.0233) Phase I ( ) SATT * * * (0.0366) (0.0365) (0.0399) (0.0438) Phase II ( ) SATT *** ** ** ** (0.052) (0.0533) (0.053) (0.0476) ln(employment) Panel B: Carbon Intensity Δln(GHG/Employment) Pre-Announcement SATT * (0.0354) (0.0361) (0.0159) (0.0224) Announcement Phase SATT *** * ** ** (0.0263) (0.0268) (0.0223) (0.0279) Phase I ( ) SATT (0.0509) (0.0523) (0.0433) (0.0433) Phase II ( ) SATT * (0.0732) (0.0755) (0.0592) (0.0646) ln(carbon Intensity) # Observations # Clusters Treatment Group ETS plants Part ETS Part ETS Only ETS Non-ETS in ETS Control Group Non-ETS plants Non-ETS plants Non-ETS plants Non-ETS plants Non-ETS plants Non-ETS plants in ETS firms included in control group Yes Yes No N/A --

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