I I I. Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community. Diagrammer og kommentarer til den 0konomiske sit.uation i Fcellesskabet

Transkript

1 Commission of the European Communities Kommissionen for De europiske Fllesskaber Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community Diagrammer og kommentarer til den 0konomiske sit.uation i Fcellesskabet Publication mensuelle

2 This publication appears monthly (except August and September, which are combined in a double number). Denne publikation udkommer manedligt (bortset fra et dobbeltnummer i perioden augustseptember) The Graphs and Notes of Group A appear in eery issue and deal with: A1 ndustrial production A2 Unemployment A3 Consumer prices A4 Balance of trade The others (Groups B, C and D) appear quarterly as follows: Diagrammer og bemcerkninger til gruppe A: A1 A2 A3 A4 lndustriproduktion Antal arbejdsl0se Forbrugerpriser Handelsbalance offentligg0res i hert nummer, medens grupperne 8, C og D findes i f0lgende udgaer: January, April, July, October Januar, april, juli, oktober 81 Exports 82 Trade between member countries 83 Discount rate and callmoney rates 84 Shortterm lending to business and priate customers 85 Exchange rates 81 Eksport 82 Handel mellem medlemslandene 83 Diskontosats og pengemarkedsrente 84 Kortfristede kreditter til irksomheder og priatpersoner B5 Vekselkurser February, May, AugustSeptember, Noember Februar, maj, augustseptember, noember C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 mports Terms of trade Wholesale prices Retail sales Wages C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 mport Bytteforhold Engrospriser Detailomscetning L0nninger March, June, AugustSeptember, December Marts, juni, augustseptember, december D1 Output in the metal products industries D2 Dwellings authorized D3 Tax reenue D4 Share prices 05 Longterm interest rates 01 Produktion i metalindustri 02 8oliger hortil der er giet byggetilladelse 03 Skatteindtcegter 04 Aktiekurser 05 Langfristede rentesatser Results of the monthly business surey carried out among heads of enterprises in the Community are to be found immediately after the graphs and notes. Resultater af den manedlige konjunkturunders0gelse indhentet blandt irksomhedsledelser i Fcellesskabet findes umiddelbart efter diagrammerne og kommentarerne. For obserations on the graphs see last page. Bemcerkninger til diagrammerne findes pa sidste side.

3 Commission of the European Communities DirectorateGeneral for Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate for National Economies and Economic Trends 200, rue de la Loi, 1049 Bruxelles GRAPHS AND NOTES ON THE ECONOMC STUATON N THE COMMUNTY DAGRAMMER OG KOMMENTARER TL DEN 0KONOMSKE STUATON F lellesskabet Kommissionen for De europreiske Frellesskaber Generaldirektoratet for 0 konomiske og Finansielle Anliggender Direktoratet for Medlemsstaternes 0konomi og Konjunkturudikling 200, rue de la Loi 1049 Bruxelles

4 THE PRESENT PATTERN OF ECONOMC POLCES N THE COMMUNTY The different lines of shortterm economic policy laid down by the Community authorities, and in particular in the Council Decision of 18 March, hae been maintained in the last few months. n a general manner, the differences in monetary policy hae narrowed following the ending of most of the restrictie measures. n particular, the quantitatie restrictions on lending imposed in some member countries hae been eased or abolished. Germany went furthest in this relaxation of monetary policy. The Netherlands and Germany, the member countries with large payments surpluses, are following an expansionary budgetary policy. As a result, the publicauthorities borrowing requirement in these countries is likely to rise ery sharply in 1975 (by about 4% of the gross domestic product in Germany and by about 3% in the Netherlands). Moreoer, the measures taken in both these countries are more farreaching than those introduced in important nonmember countries, especially the United States. n the member countries faced with particularly large internal and external imbalances, namely the United Kingdom and taly, budgetary policy is cautiously restrictie. n the spring of 197 5, the talian Goernment decided to use extra tax receipts that had not been budgeted for to finance selectie stimulatory measures in priority branches, particularly building and construction. With the budgetary deficit widening at a dangerous rate, the April budget in the United Kingdom laid emphasis on curbing demand reland, which is faced with an exceptional situation, continues to run a ery large budgetary deficit. Of the member countries which, in terms of their balance of payments situation and rate of inflation, lie between these two groups of countries, France adopted, at the end of April, a programme for promoting public and priate inestment. n May, additional inestment programmes for the railways and postal serices were launched in Belgium too. n the other member countries, with the exception of Luxembourg, the net borrowing requirement is expected to grow considerably in Brussels, 30 May HOVEDLNERNE FJELLESSKABETS AKTUELLE 0KONOMSKE POLTK De forskellige retningslinier for den 0konomiske politik, som ble fastlagt af Frellesskabets instanser og isrer i Radets beslutning af 18. marts, er bleet fastholdt igennem de seneste maneder. almindelighed er forskellene bleet mindre fremtrredende i penge og kreditpolitikken, dade restriktie foranstaltninger for st0rstedelen er ophreet pa dette omrade. srer gennemf0rtes en lempelse eller en ophreelse af kantitatie kreditbegrrensninger ide medlemsstater, hor sadanne bestemmelser eksisterede. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland gennemf0rte den mest idtgaende lempelse af penge og kreditpolitikken. Nederlandene og Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, de medlemsstater, der har et stort betalingsbalanceoerskud, er finanspolitikken orienteret i ekspansi retning. Som f0lge heraf skulle det offentliges finansieringsbeho okse me get kraftigt i 1975 (ca. 4% af bruttonationalproduktet i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland og ca. 3% i Nederlandene). Desuden er foranstaltningerne, som er bleet truffet i disse to an de mere idtrrekkende end de, der er truffet i igtige tredjelande, isrer De forenede Stater. de medlemsstater, der har uligeregt i den indenlandske 0konomi samt oer for udlandet ds. Det forenede Kongerige og talien har finanspolitikken reret let restrikti. Den italienske regering edtog i foraret at anende de uentede st0rre skattemidler til direkte st0tteforanstaltninger til fordel for igtige brancher isrer byggesektoren. det britiske finanslosforslag, som ble forelagt i april, er ho"edregten lagt pa eftersp0rgselsdrempende elementer under hensyntagen til et budgetunderskud, der okser betrenkeligt. rland, his situation rna anses for usredan1ig, er budgetunderskuddet stadigrek meget stort. Af de medlemsstater, der med hensyn til betalingsbalancesituation og inflationstakt ligger mellem disse to grupper, har Frankrig i slutningen af april edtaget et program til fremme af offentlige og priate inesteringer. Ogsa i Belgien ble der i maj edtaget yderligere inesteringer inden for jernbane og telefonresen. de 0rige ande med undtagelse af Luxembourg rna der for 1975 regnes med en betydelig stigning i nettofinansieringsbehoet. Bruxelles, 30. maj 1975.

5 A NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON Unadjusted lkke sresonkorrigerede tal 200 T r CE EG EC EF 200 Adjusted indices ScBsonkorrigerede tal J [ CE EG EC EF """" ,. _,. "!,..._...,., ,...." 120 F M A M A 0 N p 140 l F M A M 0 N D n the first quarter, industrial production in the Community showed no progress oer the low leel it reached in December 1974 but was about 6% lower than in the first quarter of The results of the EEC business sureys carried out in the last few months show that, in March, production forecasts in the Community as a whole continue to be optimistic, despite a slight deterioration. Howeer, this management opinion has not been confirmed by an upswing in new orders, which after a strengthening in the beginning of the year continued to deelop in a more hesitant manner. Howeer, the increase in confidence shown by managements has not yet resulted in an upturn in production. The sluggish trend is influenced by the sharp slowdown in sectors which only a few months ago were shoring up economic actiity, aboe all the steel industry, where production in the first four months of 1975 was 8. 7 down on the same period last year; moreoer, the recoery in a number of branches where actiity was preiously ery sluggish, such as the motor ehicle industry, is still insufficient to sustain production as a whole. Frellesskabets industriproduktion har i f0rste kartal ikke ist nogen forbedring i forhold til det meget lae nieau horpa den befandt sig i december At d0mme efter resultaterne af konjunkturunders0gelsen i marts er forentningerne til udiklingen i produktionen for Frellesskabet som helhed stadig optimistiske, omend en smule mere afdrempet. Virksomhedsledernes opfattelse er imidlertid endnu ikke bleet bekrreftet af et opsing i ordretilgangen, som efter en forbedring i begyndelsen af aret fortsatte en mere usikker udikling. Desuden harden fomgede tillid til fremtiden, som irksomhedslederne gier udtryk for, endnu ikke giet sig udslag i en produktionsstigning. Den usikre udikling pairkes af den kraftige tilbagegang inden for omrader, som for nogle maneder siden stadigrek ar et positit element i den 0konomiske aktiitet, nemlig isrer i stalindustrien, hor produktionsnieauet i de f0rste maneder af 1975 er faldet 8,7 i forhold til tilsarende periode i 1974; desuden er reksten, inden for nogle industrigrene med et tidligere meget lat nieau som f.eks. automobilindustrien, endnu ikke tilstrrekkelig til at st0tte hele produktionen.

6 NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON A Adjusted indices Scesonkorrigerede tal ltalia r Belgique Belgii Lux.,.,bourg United Kingdom 200 r r..._..._...,... "" _\......,.,.,....,...,... ",.. r.. ""..... "V, \,... "".. ".,..., A... \,.. \ 1; "... \... " \ r....., K _ \.. 11) rr _ l 1 l l J FMAMJ J ASOHDJ FMAMJ J ASOHD J FMAM J JASON OJ FMAMJ J ASOHD \ 270 Adjusted indices Scesonkorrigered e tal l l l 1973 l ll Deutschland France Nederland lrlande..._ Denmark... "" _,... 1 L _., " r. p \...,... j r...! 7 [.._,...c7 r.. " r r.... l:1 f" J...r 1. J l J FMAMJ J ASONDJ F MAMJ J ASONO J FMAMJ JASONO J F MAMJ J ASOND

7 A2 UNEMPLOYMENT (thousands) ANTAL ARBEJDSL0SE (i tusinde) r "" """ ",., r n9751 _, L """" _,.P""" 7 "" l,..."..v V.J... L r r.....,... " J, Oanmark B R Deutschland France tltalia reland Nederland Belgique Belg1e United KingdOm " "... t.,,... J l l l l _t l l 1 l l J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAM J JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND j_! The labour market situation in the Community deteriorated further in the spring. Although the unadjusted number of unemployed in countries such as Germany, reland and the Netherlands dropped slightly, seasonally adjusted unemployment in these countries showed a sustained rise. Seasonal factors did not. howeer, appear to hae any appreciable effect on the trend in the number of unemployed in France, the United Kingdom and Belgium, where een the unadjusted figures went up. This is principally because the improement in the weather proided little stimulus to actiity in the building industry. n most countries, the numbers working short time hardly fell at all. There was a further drop in the seasonally adjusted number of unfilled acancies eerywhere. n some countries, this tendency may be partly due to the rationalization measures carried out by companies in a number of sectors, notably the motor ehicle industry. Situationen pa arbejdsmarkedet i Frelle skabet er bleet yderligere forrerret i l0bet af foraret. Ganske ist iste bruttoantallet af arbejdsl0se en mindre tilbagegang i nogle ande, sasom Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, rland og Nederlandene, men det sresonkorrigerede antal arbejdsl0se for disse ande iste dog en edarende stigning. Derimod 0ede sresonfaktorerne tilsyneladende ingen mrerkbar indflydelse pa udikli ngen i antallet af arbejdsl0se i Frankrig, Det forenede Kongerige og Belgien, hor endog bruttotallene steg. Denne udikling skyldes isrer, at det bedre ejr kun i ubetydeligt omfang kunne stimulere byggeaktiiteten. Der er i de fleste ande nreppe ket et fald i antallet af deltidsarbejdere. Det sresonkorrigerede antal ledige Stillinger er faldet yderligere oeralt. Denne tendens kunne i isse ande deli skyldes den rationali ering, som irksomheder inden for isse sektorer isrer for automobilindustrien har bestrrebt sig pa at gennemf0re.

8 200 CONSUMER PRCES T B R Deutschland France ltolia Belgique Belgii Luxembourg 1970 = 100 l T T l FORBRUGERPRSER T T T Monthly ariations in % Manedlig rendring i % 1l A _;::...,.,.... _" l j,.o,.,...,...,... = 100 l, Danmar1< reland Nederland United Kingdom L..._.. 0,5.if, + 3,0 140 V: V, ;,_. ".7.,..., :::::: 120.,..., 10 0 J FM AM J J AS 0 N 0 J FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N D N 0 M A Consumer prices, in the Community as a whole, accelerted in April to show an increase of 1.5 % oer the yrewus month. The aerage increase recorded for the penod from January to April corresponds with an annual rate of soe 15.5 % n the United Kingdom and reland,_ the pace of m flation is still ery rapid and has een quickened. n the United Kingdom,the cost of liing rose sharp!! in Apr!!, largely as a result of higher l _ocl authority rates, crease m public utility charges and a nse m food pnce. The mcresmg inflationary pressure in April was, in the mam, due to h1gher postal and telephone charges. n France, the rate of increase was such that the authorities reinforced its policy of selectie price sureillance. On 5t May 1975, the Belian goer_nment introduced a general pnce freeze, under wh1ch_ the pnces of goods and serices supplied by manufacturers, mpoters and distributors will be held at the leel of 30 April until 7 July. As regards the other member countries, a slight acceleration in price increases in the Federal Republic of Germany, contrasts with a slackening in Denmark where the monthly rate of increase was, in April, the lowest recorded in the Community. Frellesskabet som helhed er stigningen i forbrugerpriserne i april fomget, saledes at denne andrager 1,5% i forhold til foregaende maned. D en gennemsnitlige stigning som ble noteret for perioden januar til april, sarer til en arlig stigningstakt pa ca. 15,5 % Det forenede Kongerige og rland er inflationstempoet forbleet srerligt hurtigt. Det forenede Kongerige er leeomkostningerne i april steget oerordentlig meget, isrer som f0lge at h0jere kommual skater og forh0jelse af isse offentlige takster samt st1gnmgen 1 f0dearepriserne. Det oksende inflationspres, som kunne iagttages i talien i april, skyldes hoedsageligt forh0je!sen af post og telefontaksterne. Frankrig ar stigningstaktn tilstrrekkelig strerk til at myndighederne forstrerkede sm selektie politik i form af priskontrol. Belgien edtog regeringen d. 5. maj 1975 et generelt prisstop greldende indtil d. 7. ju1i, hored priserne pa arer og tjenesteydelser fra producenter, import0rer samt i handelen fastholdes pa prisnieauet den 30. april. Med hensyn til de 0rige lane, star en let acceleration af prisstigningen i Forbundsrepubhkken Tskland i kontrast til en afsrekkelse i D anmark, hor den m"anedlige stigningstakt i april ar den laeste inden for F rellesska bet.

9 A 4 BALANCE OF TRADE HANDELSBALANCE Mio Bur Danmark BR Deutschland Nederland UEBL A J \ 7 7 \ ,., ,...._ r lr,_ k """"...iiiiii 1!" r t\. _ t r"\., _; " 1\. f..a... \ Ff 0 CE EG EC France 0 reland ltalia United Kingdom 2000 " 1\, \ V ii..., "" \ \...,? \ \ \ J " \\" 7 7 "" r," 7 7 " " J \ 1, L 1 l 1 J FMAMJ J ASOHO J FMAMJ J ASOHOJ FMAMJ J ASOHO J FMAMJ J ASOHO With economic actiity in the Community still flagging and import demand therefore depressed, the Communitys balance of trade has improed further in the past few months. Exports hae also been affected by the low leel of actiity in the industrialized countries, which are the Communitys main trading partners, but less so than imports. n France exports hae been static since mid1974, while the alue of imports has fallen by oer 20 % during this period; there has been a further sharp improement in the balance of trade. The talian trade deficit continued to narrow in March; this was helped by an appreciable drop in imports, especially of consumer goods from other member countries. n April the United Kingdoms trade deficit increased somewhat, probably mainly because of the London dockers strike; the tendency continued to be faourable as a result of the high leel of export orders and the sharp reduction in imports of basic materials and fuel. Germanys trade surplus has narrowed since the beginning of the year; in March export orders fell further despite an increase in foreign orders for motor ehicles. Som f0lge af den edarende lakonjunktur i Frellesskabet og dermed en ringere eftersp0rgsel efter importarer er handelsbalancen i Frellesskabet bleet yderligere forbedret i de seneste mfmeder. Ganske ist er undf0rselen ligeledes bleet bemrt af den ringe 0konomiske aktiitet i de industrialiserede ande, som er Frellesskabets igtigste handelspartnere, men er dog ikke ramt sa hardt som indf0rselen. Frankrig er udf0rselen ikke steget fra midten af 1974, horimod importrerdien i samme peri ode er faldet med mere end 20 %; den franske handelsbalance er saledes bleet yderligere strerkt forbedret. Det italienske handelsbalanceunderskud er ogsa i marts bleet reduceret, srerligt som f0lge af en betydelig ned gang i indf0rselen isrer af forbrugsarer fra andre medlemsstater. Til gengreld er handelsbalanceunderskuddet i Det forenede Kongerige steget sagt i april sandsynligi isrer pa grund af de londonske dokarbejderes strejke. Tendensen ar dog stadig gunstig pa grund af store eksportordrebeholdninger og den kraftigt formindskede indf0rsel af raarer og brrendstof. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland er handelsbelanceoerskuddet faldet siden begyndelsen af aret; mrengden af eksportordrer er faldet yderligere i marts til trods for en stigning i antallet af udenlandske ordrer pa motork0ret0jer.

10 MPORTS from nonmember countries MPORT fra ikkemedlemslande C l 1963 = l 119(21 J l1973l l1974 l1975l t CE EG EC Dan mark BR Deutschland France f reland ltalia Nederland UEBL United Kingdom..,...,...., _, r....,.,. """" "...,...,...,.. r" """".,...,. r lo.....,._..,...,.,. r, " _. " " r ,.....,,... "" ".,... r..._..:... _,...k J FM AM J J AS 0 N 0 J FM AM J J AS 0 N 0 J FM AM J J AS 0 N OJ FM AM J J AS 0 N 0 The more complete figures now aailable show that the decline in the olume of the Communitys imports from nonmember countries began een before the end of last year; it seems to hae continued in recent months. The main reasons for this are the persistent weakness of domestic demand and in particular the further rundown of stocks of raw materials and lower fuel consumption. The upward moement of import prices has slackened noticeably, but is still continuing, so that the decline in the alue of imports means an een sharper decline in olume. n France and taly the decrease in the alue of imports since the end of 1974 has been particularly marked. The alue of imports to the Federal Republic of Germany continued to fall, with imports from both West and East European countries hit less than raw material imports from deeloping countries. The United Kingdom imports from East European countries remained stable, while imports from Commonwealth countries and the United States hae declined since the beginning of the year. n the Benelux countries the fall in the alue of imports was moderate. Danish and rish imports were irtually static. De nu foreliggende mere fuldstrendige tal iser, at nedgangen i Frellesskabets importmrengde fra ikkemedlemsstater har fundet sted siden udgangen af Denne tilbagegang, som til sneladende er fortsat i de seneste maneder, skldes den fortsat ringe interne eftersp0rgsel og isrer den fortsatte afikling af ra toflagrene samt et aere brrendstofforbrug. Stigningen i importpriserne er ganske ist k1art taget af, men fortsretter, saledes at nedgangen i den rerdimressige indf0rsel sarer til en endnu kraftigere mrengdemressig nedgang. Frankrig og talien ar den rerdimressige nedgang i indf0rselen srerlig udprreget fra udgangen af Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland fortsatte tilbagegangen i importrerdien ; dog ramte nedgangen indf0rselen fra bade est og 0Steuropreiske ande i ringere grad end indf0rselen af ra toffer fra udiklingslandene. Det forenede Kongeriges indf0rsel fra 0steuropreiske ande holdt sig urendrede, horimod indfmselen fra Commonwealthlandene og De forenede Stater siden arets begyndelse er faldet. Beneluxlandene ar nedgangen i den rerdimressige indf0rsel begrrenset. Den danske og irske indf0rsel ar nogenlunde stabil.

11 C2 TERMS OF TRADE BYTTEFORHOLD J B.R. ueutschland 120 France 115 CE EG EC ltalia United K1ngdom o... lr=., " " " "" 1\...,... r..._..., """... " \ " \ \ \ \...,... \ lrelaod _L_ Nederland 125 UEBL Danmark _......_"\,... _...,",,,,. " r... \ r"... ""\. \_ r \ ;.._...,, \ f " ", = """ " ",... r 80 J FM AM J J AS 0 N 0 J FM AM J J AS 0 N 0 J FM AM J J AS 0 N OJ FM AM J J AS 0 N 0 n the past few months the Community countries hae seen a further improement in their terms of trade. mport prices as a whole hae fallen in seeral member countries, mainly because of the declining cost of raw materials. Spot commodity prices hae dropped appreciably from the in spring 1974 peak, but seem to hae steadied since February. Among nonferrous metals, tin and zinc prices hae been quite resistant in the past few months; copper has risen by some 0 since February. The prices of some basic indus trial materials hae eased further but steel prices seem to hae stabilized recently. The prices of agricultural products on the other hand hae declined further, despite a certain steadying of wheat and maize prices. The prices of exports from the Community hae risen more slowly in the past few months than in The low leel of world production and international trade has obiously resulted in keener price competition of international markets. de sidste maneder er btteforholdet for Frellesskabet medlemsstater bleet yderligere forbedret. flere medlem stater er importpriserne som helhed faldet, hilket hoedsageligt skyldes faldende importpriser pa rastoffer. Kontantpriserne for nistoffer har ganske ist i betydelig grad ligget under den h0jestererdi sam ble miet i foraret 1974, men har siden februar ist tendens til stabilisering. Had angar nonferro metaller ar pri erne pa tin og zink i de seneste maneder ret stabile, horimod kobber iden februar er bleet ca. 10 dyrere. Priserne pa nogle industrielle grundmaterialer er faldet yderligere; stalpriserne i er dog i den seneste tid tendens til stabi1i ering. Priserne pa landbrugsprodukter er derimod faldet yderligere til trods for en i tabilisering af priserne pa hede og majs. Priserne pa Frelles kabets eksportarer er i de seneste maneder steget langsommere end i Den lae erdensproduktion og den ringe internationale handel har abenhart f0rt til en mere intensi priskonkurrence pa de internationale markeder.

12 WHOLESALE PRCES ENGROSPRSER C = BR Deutschland Nederland BelgiqueBelgie ++r,_++r++rr,_+ r 140rtrrr::.c:: ==t. 120rrr::J;==rrrr "" 1: 100 L;:j:r L j j j L L j j L L j j j 260,,,,..rr...,., Oanmark France reland ltalia United Kingdom trr,_+tttttrr+1 220t+r+trt+rr r+trt+rr+ 1 ;..,., """", " l? 140..J,...,_ _, = l l l l 1 l l J FMAMJ JASON OJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAM J JASON OJ FMAMJ J ASOND n the first quarter the tendency for wholesale prices to rise more slowly continued in most Community countries; howeer, the anual rate of increase remained ery high in the United Kingdom and probably also in reland, despite a falloff. The decline in world market prices for industrial raw materials eased. On the other hand demand had a dampening effect on the leel of wholesale prices, een though pre sure on internal production costs in the member countries hardly slackened. There was a general slowdown in price rises for semimanufactures and, in particular, for intermediate products used in the manufacture of consumer goods. n addition the poor performance of building and c;nstruction had a restraining effect on price rises for building materials and similar products. The rise in wholesale prices for food of agricultural origin remained brisk; in particular meat prices continued to climb distinctly in most Community countries. f0rste kartal er tendensen til langsommere stigninger i engrospriserne fortsat i de tleste af Frelleskabets medlemsstater; dog er det arlige prisstigningstempo stadigrek meget stort i Det forenede Kongerige og sandsynligis ogsa i rland, sel om der i rland kunne konstateres en srekkel e. Den edarende nedgang i priserne pa erdensmarkedet for rastoffer har bidraget til den tendens til en mere moderat udikling i engrospriserne, som generelt har ist sig. Nedgangen i eftersp0rgslen har haft en tilsarende irkning, sel om presset pa produktionsomkostninger nreppe er bleet mindre i medlemsstaterne. Prisstigningen for halfabrikata er generelt bleet langsommere, isrer for halfabrikata, som skal anendes til fremstilling af forbrugsarer. 0rigt har afmatning:en i byggesektoren irket hremmende pa prisstigningerne pa byggematerialer og lignende produkter. Stigningen i engrospriserne for lenedsmidler fremstillet af landbrugsprodukter ar stadig kraftig; isrer er prisstigningerne for k0d fort sat i de tleste af Frellesskabets medlemsstater.

13 C4 RETAL SALES DET ALOMSA:TNNG 1970 = 100 CE EG EC Danmark BR Deutschland France reland ltalia Nederland Belgique Belgie United Kingdom \ ;,\ l 197A. 1r l 1 80r 1975 JFMAMJ JASOND JFMAM J JASON D JFMAM J JA S O ND Priate consumers expenditure in the Community has expanded only marginally in recent months. n some countries such as Germany, the Netherlands and Denmarkretail sales edged up again both in olume and in alue following a period of distinct decline. This reflects rises in total wages and salaries and in transfer incomes and the effects of tax reliefs for indiiduals. n the United Kingdom higher incomes and the fall in the saings ratio continued to sustain demand; retail sales, in particular for consumer durables, climbed appreciably in April in anticipation of the increase in the rate of alue added tax on 1 May. On the other hand, retail sales in Belgium and France hae continued their moderate decline. n the Community as a whole, sales of domestic appliances were least buoyant; demand for clothing and footwear also increased only slightly. n taly the decline in car sales has slackened isibly in recent months; in other countries new registrations of cars continued to go up, and in Germany and Belgium rose aboe the leel of a year earlier. Fcellesskabet er de priate husholdningers udgifter kun steget_ ubetydeligt i de seneste maneder. isse ande som Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, Nederlandene og Danmark er en periode med en udprreget tilbagegang i detailsomsa:tningen, bleet efterfulgt af et opsing sae! mrengdemressigt som rerdimressigt. Denne udikling skyldes h0jere l0nindtregter og oerf0rselsindkomster samt ettelserne af personbeskatningen. Det forenede Kongerige har indkomststigninger og en aere opsparingskote yderligere holdt eftersp0rgsclen oppe: detailom retningen, iscer af arige forbrugsgoder, steg mrerkba11 i april som f0lge ar forh0jelsen af merrerdiafgiftssatsen. der tradte i kraft pr.. maj. Derimod har detailsomsretningen i Belgicn og Frankrig fort sat, ist en stadig strerkere til bagegang. Frellesskabet som helhed har udiklingen i salget af husholdningsartikler reret mindst dynamisk; salget inden for beklredning og fodt0j har ligeledes kun ist en sag opgang. talien er nedgangen i salget af personogne i de seneste maneder klart bleet mindre; i andre ande er antallet af nyindregistreringer af automobiler steget yderligere og har oersteget sidste ars nieau i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland og i Belgien.

14 WAGES (in industry) April 1970 = 100 L0NNNGER (i industrien) april 1970 = 100 cs ? f B. R. Deutschland France Luxembourg United Kingdom _.,...::... r ,, Oanmark reland Nederland BelgiqueBelgii ltalia _....= :;;... t:i">" f 1 l l.;.::::.z: ) 0. J FMAMJ J ASONOJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND n recent months, deelopments in wages in the Community aried from country to country. Comp<.rrison between them is difficult, because, besides the S.O.E.C data shown in the graph aboe, national data, often more up to date, but not similar in statistical definition, must also be considered. n certain countries, the rate of increase in wages, while remaining rapid, has moderated a little since the beginning of the year. Such is the case in the Federal Republic of Germany, where gross hourly earnings in industry for January exceeded by o their January 1974 leel (while in December 1974, the annual growth rate reached nearly 14 o) Similarly, in the Netherlands, the statutory hourly wages showed an increase of 16.2 o oer the preious year (against more than 18 last December). On the contrary, in the other countries, the increases hae tended to accelerate. The yearonyear increase in April has risen by 35 o in taly (minimum statutory wages in industry), and by 31.7 o in the United Kingdom (basic weekly wages in industry). n Belgium, the increase has reached 25.9 o in the first quarter (aerage hourly wages in industry), in Denmark 22.4 o in December (hourly earnings of workers in industry), and in France 18.7 o for the first quarter of 1975 (rate of hourly wages, all actiities). L,;:mningerne har i de seneste maneder udiklet sig temmelig forskelligt i F<ellesska bets medlemsstater. Sammenligning mellem disse forekommer dog temmelig anskelig, da man, foruden tallene fra S.K.E.F., som er ist i oensta ende diagram, rna tage de nyere, men ikke efter statistiske definitioner harmoniserede nationale tal, i betragtning. isse ande, er stigningstakten for lemningerne aftaget noget siden arets begyndelse, men er dog stadig kraftig. Dette gcelder i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, hor bruttotimellimningerne inden for industrien i januar la o h0jere end i januar 1974, mens den a rlige stigningstakt i december 1974 endnu a pa ncesten 14 o Det samme ar tilfceldet i Nederlandene, hor oerenskomsttimel0nningerne inden for industrien i marts steg med 16,2 o pa arbasis mod mere end 18 o i december Derirnod er l0nstigningen ide andre medlemsstater snarere taget til. Stigningen pa arsbasis ar i april 35 o i talien (oerenskomstmcessige minimumsl0nninger inden for industrien) og 31,7 <; i Det forenede Kongerige (ugentlige basisl0nninger i industrien). Belgien har stigningen i de gennemsnitlige timel0nninger inden for industrien i f0rste kartal 1975 ceret pa 25, 9 pa arsbasis. Danmark ar timel,;mningerne for industriarbejdere i december ,4 h0jere end a ret f0r og i Frankrig ar timel0nningerne for samtlige arbejdere i f0rste kartal af ,7o h0jere end aret f0r.

15 RESULTS OF THE BUSNESS SURVEY 1 ) OF COMMUNTY NDUSTRY RESULTATER AF KONJUNKTURUNDERS0GELSEN 1 ) NDUSTRSEKTOREN FA:LLESSKABET + 40 % of an sw ers % af sar Total orderbooks Bedommelse af den samlede ordrebeholdning _ ::, 1,._ "7 CE EG EC BR Deutschla nd France ltalia Nederland Belgique Belgie tellndl f l JFMAMJ J A S LA D N D VL "" \.... \ 7T " \ N \ "... 1\ l J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S,\ \" " 1\\ \ \ 1\ Assessment of stocks of finished goods Bedommelse af f rerdigarelagre_,\\ :\ 1 0. " J A S 0 N D + 40 J FM A M J J A S O N D J F MAMJ J A SOND J F MAMJ J A S OND J F MAM J J ASON D

16 Expectations : production Produktionsforentninger %of answers %at sar CE EG EC BR Deutschland 30 France ltalia Nederland Graphs and ll show businessmens iews of their total orderhooks and their stocks offinished goods, represented as threemonth moing aerages Q{ the aifference between the percentage of those who find them "aboe normal" ( +) and the percentage of those who find them "below normal" (). Graph m shows threemonth moing aerages of"the difference (as percentage of replies) between the number of businessmen who expected production to be up ( +) and those who expected it to be down (). The table below shows businessmens assessments of their total orderbooks, foreign orderbooks and stocks of finished goods during the last three months, ( +) being aboe normal, ( =) being normal, () being below normal. t also shows whether, they expect the following three or four months to bring an increase ( +), no change ( =) or decrease () in their production and in their selling prices. Detailed comments are gien in "Results of the business surey carried out among heads of enterprises in the Community", published three times a year. NDJ MJJASOND Diagrammerne og ll gengier tre mdneders gidende gennemsnit af forskelsa!rdien mellem irksomhedsledernes sar»storre«( +) og»mindre«() edrorende ordrebestand og fa!rdigarelagre. Diagram ill iser ligeledes i form af tre maneders glidende gennemsnit forskelsa!rdien ( procent af sarene) mellem irksomhedsledernes forentninger til en»forogelse«( +) eller en»formindskelse«() af produktionen. Nedenstdende tabel gengier for de seneste tre mdneder irksomhedsledernes bedommelse af, om de samlede ordrebeholdninger, udlandsordrer og fa!rdigarelagre ar forholdsis store ( +), nor male ( =) eller forholdsis smd (). Desuden er irksomhedsledernes forentninger om oksende ( +), nogenlunde ua!ndrede ( =) eller aftagende ( ) produktion og salgsprisen i de folgende tre eller fire mdneder anfort. Udforlige kommentarer findes i»resultaterne af konjunkturundersogelsen hos irksomhedsledere i Fa!llesskabet«der offentliggores tre gange om dret. BR France Deutschland J F M J F M Total orderbooks = Den samlede ordre beholdning Export orderbooks = Den udenlandskeordrebeholdning Stocks of finished goods = Fa:rdigarelagre Expectations : production = Produktionsforentningerne Expectations: selling prices = Salgsprisforentninger ) Excluding construction, food, beerages and tobacco. J reland ltalia Nederland Belgique Lux em EEC Belgie bourg E0F F M J F M J F M J F M J F M J F M ) Eksklusie bygge og anla!gsirksomhed, na!rings og nydelsesmiddelindustri.

17 Obserations on the Graphs Bemrerkninger til diagrammerne A 1 ndustrial production: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities (excluding construction, food, beerages and tobacco). reland and Denmark: quarterly index of OECD. Community: estimated index. Seasonally adjusted indices: threemonth moing aerage. A 1 ndustriproduktion: ndeks fra Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Falesskaber ( eksklusie bygge og anlag.i;irksomhed, narings og nydelsesmidler). rland og Danmark: kartalsindeks OECD. Fallesskabet: beregnet indeks. Sasonkorrigeret indeks: re mdneders glidende gennemsnit. A 2 Unemployment: Three month moing aerages of the figures adjusted for seasonal ari(ltions by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. France: number of persons seeking employment. taly: the cure represents the number of persons registered at labour exchanges; this does not correspond to the number of unemployed. Luxembourg: negligible. Belgium: completely unemployed persons receiing unemployment benefit. A 3 Consumer prices: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities. A 2 Antal arbejdslese: Tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit af sasonkorrigerede tal fra Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. Frankrig: antal arbejdssogende. talien: kuren angier antal personer, registreret pd arbejdsanisningskontorer; dette sarer ikke til antal arbejdslose. :Luxembourg: ubetydeig arbejdsloshed. Begien: fuldtids ledige personer, som modtager arbejdsloshedsunderstottelse. A3 Forbmgerpriser: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. A 4 Balance oftrade: ncluding intracommunity trade. Community: trade with nonmember countries only. Calculated on the basis of the import and export figures adjusted for seasonal ariations by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Threemonth moing aerages. Exports fob, imports cif; excluding monetary gold. Cures for recent months may be partly based on estimates. Belgium and Luxembourg: common cure. A 4 Handelsbalance: nklusie handel indenfor Fallesskabet. Fallesskabet: kun handel med ikke medlemslande. Beregnet pd grundlag af tal for import og eksport sasonkorrigeret af Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. Tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit. Eksport fo.b., import c.ij., eksklusie monetart guld. Kurer kan for de seneste mdneder are deis base ret pd skon. Begien og Luxembourg: falles kure. C 1 mports: Seasonally adjusted indices of alues in Eur proided by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Threemonth moing aerages. Cures for recent months may be partly based on estimates. Belgium and Luxembourg: common cure. No figures yet aailable for the United Kingdom, reland and Denmark. C 2 Terms of trade: ndex f.!l aerage export prices diided by the index of aerage import prices. Threemonth moing aerages. Source SOEC. C 3 Wholesale Prices: ndices of the Statistical Office <!l the European Communities. Germany and Netherlands: excluding VAT. C 4 Retail sales: ndices l the Statistical O.flce of the European Communities. (Values in national currency.) Threemonth moing aerage. Total retail trade. France: sales of department stores and similar. United Kingdom: index relates to Great Britain only. Cures for recent months may be part(\ hased on estimates. C 5 Wages: ndices from SOEC. Hourly gross wages of workers. United Kingdom, reland and Denmark: indices from OECD ( 970 = 00). The latest data may be based partly on estimates. C 1 mport: Stesonkorrigeret indeks af terdier i Eur udj{erdiget af Det statistiske Kontor for De europteiske Ftellesskaber. Tre mtlneders glidende gennemsnit. Kurer kan for de seneste mcmeder tere deis base ret pa skon. Belgien og Luxembourg: jtelles kure. ngen tal endnu tilgtengelige for England, rland og Danmark. C 2 Bytteforhold: ndeks qf gennemsnits eksportpriser diideret med gennemsnits importpriser. + Tre mcmeders glidende gennemsnit. Kilde: SKEF. C 3 Engrospriser: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kontor for De europteiske F tellesskaber. Tyskland og N ederlandene: eksklusie MOMS. C 4 Detailomsretning: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kontor for De europteiske Ftellesskaber. (terdi i national aluta) Tre milneders glidende gennemsnit. Samlet detailomstetning. Frankrig: salg fra stormagasiner og lignende. England: indeks omfatter kun Storbritanien. Kurer kan j(jr de seneste mcmeder tere deis baseret pa skon. C 5 Lonninger: ndeks udarbejder af SKEF. Bruttotimelonninger for arbejdere. England, rland og Danmark: ndeks udarbejdet af OECD ( 970 = 100). De seneste tal kan tere deis baseret pa skon. gm of fine gold 1 Eur g finguld