Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 8. juni 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens nok vigtigste nøgletal er Sentix investorbarometer for juni for euroområdet. Her venter vi et nyt fald til 17,0 fra forrige 19,6, og dermed fortsætter tegnene på at investortilliden til den økonomiske udvikling er toppet i denne omgang. PMI-indekset har allerede peget på dette med fald de seneste to måneder op til juni. På vej ind i juni befinder aktiemarkederne sig på et lidt lavere niveau, og dertil bør man nok lægge den tilspidsede situation i Grækenland. Tysk industriproduktion ventes at have rettet sig pænt i april efter fald i marts, hvilket bl.a. understøttes af de tyske industriordrer, som netop kom igen i april efter et markant fald i marts. Industriproduktionen for hele euroområdet offentliggøres fredag. Fra Danmark kommer der også industriproduktionstal i dag. Kina offentliggør inflationstal i morgen tidlig, og selvom der ventes et lille fald til 1,3% y/y i maj fra 1,5% i april, er deflationsfrygten afblæst i Kina efter de seneste måneders stigninger. Omvendt står inflationen ikke i vejen for at gennemføre nye lempelser af den økonomiske politik. Igen i denne uge vil Grækenland nok løbe med det meste af opmærksomheden. Blandt de amerikanske nøgletal vil fokus være på detailsalgstallene torsdag og forbrugertillidsopgørelsen for juni fra University of Michigan fredag. Kina kommer med de sædvanlige månedlige aktivitetsindikatorer (industriproduktion, detailomsætning og faste investeringer) tidligt torsdag morgen EMU: Sentix falder yderligere tilbage Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De europæiske aktiemarkeder faldt generelt i fredags, mens de amerikanske var nogenlunde uændrede. Amerikanske renter steg ovenpå den stærke arbejdsmarkedsrapport, men danske og tyske fulgte ikke med og endte nogenlunde fladt over dagen. EUR svagere over for USD. Asiatiske aktiemarkeder åbnede nogenlunde fladt her til morgen. Kina: Kinas eksport faldt for tredje måned i træk i maj men dog lidt mindre end ventet. Væksten i eksporten steg således fra -6.2% y/y til -2,8% i maj. Værre var det, at væksten i importen blev endnu mere negativ (-18.1% y/y fra -16.1% i april). Tallene tegner et billede af at både den indenlandske efterspørgsel og den eksterne situation er svag. Japan: BNP-væksten i 1. kvartal er blevet oprevideret til 1,0% q/q fra 0,6% i den første offentliggørelse. USA: Fredagens arbejdsmarkedsrapport for maj var en stærk en af slagsen. Beskæftigelsen uden for landbruget steg med hele personer, hvilket både var bedre end sidste måned og bedre end ventet. Samtidig var der oprevideringer af de foregående måneder. Ledigheden steg godt nok fra 5,4% til 5,5% men det blev overskygget af sjælden stærk lønfremgang. Således steg timelønvæksten mere end ventet fra 0,1% i april til 0,3% m/m i maj, og det bragte årsvækstraten op på 2,3% y/y. På nær to korte perioder har lønvæksten ikke været højere end 2,3% siden Lønstigninger er som bekendt en af de faktorer, Fed venter på før man vil hæve renten. Trods den stærke arbejdsmarkedsrapport for maj er det dog blevet for sent pludselig at vende rundt og alligevel hæve renten i juni, og FOMC har selv stort set udelukket, at det vil ske. Men en renteforhøjelse senere i år virker noget mere sandsynlig efter fredagens tal. Grækenland: Grækerne valgte torsdag aften at anvende en sjælden brugt men fuldt legitim ret til at slå alle månedens betalinger til IMF sammen i én betaling. Dermed undgik man at betale i torsdags, men skal til gengæld hoste op med 1,5 mia. EUR sidst på måneden. Sidst et land benyttede muligheden for at slå betalinger sammen var Zambia i midt-firserne. Zambia endte i øvrigt med at gå bankerot... Grækenlands Tsipras sagde i en tale til det græske parlament, at kreditorlandenes forslag klart er urealistisk. På weekendens G7-møde var man enige om at de deltagende europæiske lande skulle forsøge at løse den fastlåste græske situation. Storbritannien: Bank of England holdt som ventet renten og størrelsen på opkøbsprogrammet uændret i torsdags. USA: Stærk beskæftigelsesfremgang i maj Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 8. juni 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,78% / indeks 1.008,53) endte ugens sidste handelsdag i negativt territorium. Den negative stemning kunne især tilskrives nervøsitet omkring gældssituationen i Grækenland og om hvorvidt der ville komme en aftale i hus hen mod slutningen af den forgangne uge. Herudover steg renterne i Danmark og Europa kraftigt, hvilket styrkede euroen og kronen overfor den amerikanske dollar. En styrket euro har typisk været negativt for europæiske aktier i år og var det formentligt også i torsdags. I toppen af indekset endte blandt andet TDC (+1,56% / kurs 51,95) efter et dansk finanshus var ude og hæve sin anbefaling på aktien til Hold fra Sælg og kursmålet til 55 kr. fra 48 kr. Også Nordea (- 0,62% / kurs 88,15) fik hævet anbefaling og kursmål af et internationalt finanshus. I den anden ende af indekset endte Vestas (-1,28% / kurs 331,90) på trods af, at vindmølleproducenten annoncerede en italiensk ordre på 40 MW og en dertilhørende 10 årig serviceaftale. Uden for det ledende C20 indeks havde ALK Abello (+5,65% / kurs 841,00) en god dag, eftersom selskabet kunne meddele, at den amerikanske partner Merck har afsluttet fase 3-studiet for ALKs tabletvaccine mod husstøvmideallergi. Merck vil nu arbejde på en registreringsansøgning til de amerikanske sundhedsmyndigheder. Renter De tyske og danske statsrenter lå nogenlunde fladt i fredags, idet den tyske rente blandt andet blev holdt nede af fornyet usikkerhed om Grækenland. Således betalte Grækenland ikke den forfaldne betaling til IMF i torsdags idet man udnyttede en sjælden brugt men fuldt legitim ret til at slå alle månedens betalinger sammen i én betaling. Sidst et land benyttede denne mulighed var Zambia i midtfirserne. Zambia endte i øvrigt med at gå bankerot... Stemningen blev ikke bedre af at Grækenlands Tsipras i en tale til det græske parlament sagde, at kreditorlandenes forslag klart er urealistisk. Den græske statsrente fredag og trak flere af de andre sydeuropæiske eurolandes renter op. Fredag eftermiddag steg de amerikanske renter og især de korte noget, ansporet af arbejdsmarkedsrapporten. Den kom ud stærk, idet beskæftigelsen uden for landbruget steg med hele personer, hvilket både var bedre end sidste måned og bedre end ventet. Samtidig var der oprevideringer af de foregående måneder. Ledigheden steg godt nok fra 5,4% til 5,5% men det blev overskygget af sjælden stærk lønfremgang.. Valuta EUR svækkedes over for USD fredag i kølvandet på den amerikanske arbejdsmarkedsrapport, som tegnede et billede af et stærkt amerikansk arbejdsmarked. Først og fremmest steg beskæftigelsen uden for landbruget med hele personer, hvilket både var bedre end sidste måned og bedre end ventet. Samtidig var der oprevideringer af de foregående måneder. Ledigheden steg godt nok fra 5,4% til 5,5% men det blev overskygget af sjælden stærk lønfremgang. Således steg timelønvæksten mere end ventet fra 0,1% i april til 0,3% m/m i maj, og det bragte årsvækstraten op på 2,3% y/y. På nær to korte perioder har lønvæksten ikke været højere end 2,3% siden De gode takter fra arbejdsmarkedet i USA førte til en styrkelse af USD over for de fleste andre valutaer, og USD/JPY nåede et nyt 13- årigt rekordhøjt niveau (rekordsvag JPY). Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP 1008,5-0,78 USD/JPY 125,4 0,940 USA 2,40 0,05 CRB 222,5-0,47 Stoxx ,0-0,93 EUR/USD 1,110-0,017 Euroområdet 0,84-0,04 Brent oil (1M fut) 62,8-1,43 FTSE 6804,6-0,80 USD/DKK 6,720 0,101 Danmark 1,00-0,05 Gold (spot) 1173,7-0,90 S&P ,8-0,14 CHF/DKK 7,137 0,052 Nasdaq 5068,5 0,18 GBP/DKK 10,257 0,108 Hang Seng 27251,0-0,03 SEK/DKK 0,800 0,003 Nikkei 20418,6-0,21 NOK/DKK 0,844-0,008 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,13 0,50 1,00 2,40 2,40 2,40 2,70 EUR/USD 1,110 1,05 1,00 0,95 Euroland 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,84 0,50 0,50 0,65 USD/JPY 125,4 124,0 130,0 140,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,75 2,08 2,00 2,10 2,35 USD/DKK 6,720 7,10 7,45 7,84 Danmark 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 1,00 0,70 0,70 0,85 EUR/DKK 7,461 7,45 7,45 7,45 Sverige -0,25-0,35-0,35-0,35 0,98 0,70 0,65 0,95 SEK/DKK 0,7997 0,801 0,814 0,861 Norge 1,25 1,00 1,00 0,75 1,73 1,50 1,50 1,50 NOK/DKK 0,8435 0,851 0,828 0,828 2

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 8. juni 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :50 Japan GDP SA QoQ 1Q F 0,7% -- 0,6% 1.0% :00 Tyskland Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.6%/0.9% %/0.1% :00 Tyskland Exports SA MoM Apr ,2% :30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentiment May , :00 Danmark Industrial Production MoM Apr ,5% :00 EMU ECB's Constancio Speaks :30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Jun 18,0 17,0 19, Kina Exports/Import (YoY) May -4,0% -- -6,4% :30 Kina CPI YoY May 1,4% -- 1,5% :30 Kina PPI YoY May -4,5% -- -4,6% :00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index May , :45 Schweiz Unemployment Rate SA May 3,4% -- 3,3% :00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Apr B :00 Danmark Current Account (Seasonally Adjusted) Apr B :15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) May 0.1%/-1.2% 0.2%/-1.1% -0.2%/-1.1% :00 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism May -- 98,0 96, :00 USA JOLTS Job Openings Apr , :50 Japan Machine Orders (MoM/YoY) Apr -2.5%/-0.4% %/2.6% :45 Frankrig Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr %/1.3% :00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) May %/0.5% :00 Danmark CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) May %/0.4% :30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr -0.5%/-2.9% :00 Norge CPI (MoM/YoY) May %/2.0% :00 Norge CPI Underlying (MoM/YoY) May -- /2.3% 0.4%/2.1% :30 UK Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr 0%/0.5% %/0.7% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications jun , :00 USA Monthly Budget Statement May -$100.5B Kina Aggregate Financing CNY May B B Kina New Yuan Loans CNY May 850.0B B :01 UK RICS House Price Balance May % :30 Frankrig Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ 1Q F ,1% :30 Kina Retail Sales YoY May 10,2% 10,1% 10,0% :30 Kina Industrial Production YoY May 6,1% 6,0% 5,9% :30 Kina Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY May 11,9% 12,0% 12,0% :45 Frankrig CPI (MoM/YoY) May %/0.1% :30 Sverige CPI (MoM/YoY) May %/0.0% 0%/-0.2% :30 Sverige CPI CPIF (MoM/YoY) May %/0.9% 0.2%/0.7% :30 USA Retail Sales Advance MoM May 0,9% 0,9% 0,0% :30 USA Retail Sales Control Group May 0,4% 0,5% 0,0% :30 USA Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) May 0,8% %/-10.7% :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 06. jun :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 07. jun :00 EMU Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.4%/1.1% %/1.8% :30 USA PPI Final Demand (MoM/YoY) May 0,4% %/-1.3% :30 USA PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM May 0,1% %/0.8% :00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Jun P 91, ,7 Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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